martin jacques on victoria in the asian century and the rise of china

Welcome by Andrew Tongue

ENGAGEMENT WITH

CHINA: ITS PIVOTAL

IMPORTANCE AND

WHAT IT INVOLVES

MARTIN JACQUES

Institute of Public Administration

Australia, 28 August 2013

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

0 10 20 30 40 50

Iron Ore

Zinc

Steel

Cotton

Copper

Rubber

Rice

Palm Oil

Soyabeans

Corn

Crude Oil

Share of Global Consumption

%

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Selected Countries for which China was Largest Trading Partner by 2010

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2000 2010 2020 2030

South 70.3 53.1 42.1 39.5 39.9 43 52.4 60.5 66.9

Asian developing

56.5 36.1 22.2 15.3 15.8 29.2 40.9 49.1 58.2

China 33 17.1 8.8 4.6 4.6 11.8 20.7 28.9 33.4

India 16.1 12.2 7.5 4.2 3.1 5.2 8 12.2 18.6

Russia 5.4 7.5 8.5 9.6 9.4 2.1 2.4 2.7 3

Brazil 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.6 5.1

North 29.7 46.9 57.9 60.5 60.1 57 47.6 39.5 33.1

US 1.8 8.9 18.9 27.3 22.1 21.9 18.4 16.7 15.1

EU 23.3 32 35.8 27.1 27.1 21.5 18.1 15.7 13.1

Japan 3 2.3 2.6 3 7.8 7.2 5.4 4.4 3.2

China/US 18.3 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.2

China’s share of global GDP in 2030

Hu Angang

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

China US Unit: $ trillion

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

*EstimatedSource: China 2030, by Hu Angang

GDP in China and the US

2000

GDP at current exchange rate

GDP at purchasing power parity (current price)

1.2 9.9 5.8 14.7 11.5 17.9 22.7 21.9 38.8 26.6 66.4 32.5

2010 2015* 2020* 2025* 2030*

3.0 9.9 9.8 14.5 15.6 16.4 24.7 18.5 35.7 21.0 51.6 23.7

Share of Global GDP in 2030: Regional Breakdown

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Other asian developing

6%

China 34%

India 19%

Russia 3%

Brazil 5%

US 15%

EU 13%

Japan 3%

Other

2%

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Centre of Global Economy1980 - 2050

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of the New Global Order

Australia’s Exports to China by Broad Sector

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Boundary of the Qin Dynasty at its Greatest Extent, c. 206BC

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Tributary States of Imperial China

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

0

20

40

60

80

100

2003 2005 2007 2009

Central

Provincial

District/County

Township/Village

Relatively or extremely satisfied with government

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order