michael kuby, professor, asu school of geographical sciences and urban planning with scott...

Michael Kuby, Professor, ASU School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning

withScott Bernstein, President

Center for Neighborhood Technology, Chicago

In US, household size is shrinking - andPhoenix is on track with national trend

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%Percent of Households with 1-2 Persons

USPhoenix MSA

Phoenix and Maricopa lead nation in gross vacancy rates

• “Of the ten most populous cities in 2010, Phoenix had the highest gross vacancy rate at 12.8 percent.”

• “Of the ten most populous counties in 2010, Maricopa County, AZ, had both the largest percentage-point increase (4.5) during the decade and highest vacancy rate (13.9 percent) in 2010.”

– US Census Bureau, Housing Characteristics 2010, 2010 Census Briefs, C2010BR-07, Oct. 2011.

Metro Phoenix has an oversupply ofsingle-family detached houses

Total SF Detached 1,156,600 100%Total SF Detached Occupied 1,023,500 88.5%Total SF Detached Vacant 133,100 11.5%

Source: American Housing Survey, Table C-01-AH-M for Metropolitan Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, 2011

Vacancies do not include homes under development – permits for SFH still mismatched to household size

% Households 3+ Persons

% Permits Single Family

2005 40.0 86.72013 38.3 69.2

Local civil infrastructure* costs are much higher for low-density development

Low Density (less than 1 unit per acre)

High Density (more than 10 units per acre)

Infrastructure Cost per

Housing Unit $62,000 $25,000

Source: CNT Staff analysis, Capital Area Regional Planning Commission, Madison WI

*Water, sewer, roads. Based on a study by CNT in Wisconsin

Transportation in U.S. Household Budgets

Source: Kuby, M. and Golub, A. 2015. Transportation and Arizona. Arizona Town Hall Background Report: www.aztownhall.org.

Annual transportation costs (driving + public transit)

Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Housing+Transportation Index: http://htaindex.cnt.org/map/

Affordable Locations Relative to Median IncomeHousing < 30% H+T < 45%

Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology, Housing+Transportation Index: http://htaindex.cnt.org/map/

Foreclosures were also concentrated on the urban fringe

Source: http://archive.azcentral.com/business/foreclosures/index.php

The Sun Corridor: Far From a Foregone

Conclusion

Source: Kuby, M. and Golub, A. 2015. Transportation and Arizona. Arizona Town Hall Background Report: www.aztownhall.org.

ADOT has recommended the yellow route as the preferred alternative for Phoenix-Tucson passenger rail service, but there’s no financing yet.

Source: ADOT, Passenger Rail Study, Draft Environmental Impact Statement, 2015: http://azdot.gov/planning/CurrentStudies/PassengerRail

Will migration continue as the Sun Belt gets hotter?

Source: ADOT Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment, November 2014.

Feel free to contact us

• Prof. Michael Kuby, mikekuby@asu.edu, 480-965-6850

• Scott Bernstein, CNT, scott@cnt.org