mobile trends and opportunities

MobileTrends,  opportuni1es,  marke1ng

Siim  Teller,  August  2013

Who  is  Siim  Teller?Tele2SkypeGrabCADFlaArOn  Device  Research

How  can  I  help  you?

We  use  the  mobile  internet  to  understand  consumer  opinion  anywhere  in  the  world.

10  million  mobile  surveys57  countries

Let’s  start  with  people.Lots  of  people.

There  are  more  Muslims  in  the  circle  than  outside  of  it.  There  are  more  Hindus  in  the  circle  than  outside  of  it.  There  are  more  Buddhists  in  the  circle  than  outside  of  it.  There  are  more  communists  in  the  circle  than  outside  of  it.  

The  circle  pulls  all  of  this  off  while  being  mostly  water  and  including  the  most  sparsely  populated  country  on  earth  (Mongolia).

Source:  United  Na1ons  Popula1on  Division,  July  2013

Age  -­‐  threats  and  opportuni1es?

Africa’s  popula1on  is  exploding.What  will  the  new  needs  be?

Where  would  you  want  to  work  /  set  up  your  business?

Country Smartphone  subs  in  millions %  of  total  subs Smartphone  subs  

growth  Y/YChina 354 29% 31%USA 219 58% 28%Japan 94 76% 15%Brazil 70 23% 28%India 67 6% 52%UK 43 53% 22%

Indonesia 36 11% 34%Germany 32 29% 29%Russia 30 12% 38%Mexico 21 19% 43%

Philippines 19 18% 34%Iran 10 10% 40%Egypt 10 10% 34%

Globally  1.5  billion  smartphone  subscribers21%  penetra1on31%  growth

What  is  a  mobile?Are  these…?

No  one  has  them  (under  5%  do)55%  of  smartphone  users  have  heard  of  them20%  plan  to  buy  this  yearOver  40%  don’t  know

More  realis1cally…Mobile  will  become  the  hub  for  smart  devices

automa1c.com

nest.com

the1leapp.com

PCs  vs  smartphones:  the  long  view

PCs

Android + iOS smartphones

1.5Bsmartphone

users5B+  mobilephone  users

Mobile  =  15-­‐20%  of  global  internet  traffic  today.  Will  be  25%  by  end  of  2014.

What’s  your  top  3  apps?

Es1mates  for  downloaded  apps  range  from  56  to  82  billion  in  2013.App  revenues  $20-­‐25  billion.

700K  of  the  1.2M  apps  available  for  iPhone,  Android,  and  Windows  are  zombies

A  zombie…Never  been  updatedFewer  than  10  reviewsvs2370  new  apps  published  a  day

In  the  US  50%  of  app  revenue  shared  between  just  25  developers.  All  of  which  (with  the  excep1on  of  Pandora)  are  game  developers.

Yet  a  lot  of  companies  are  bemng  that  more  apps  will  be  built.  BAAS,  drag-­‐and-­‐drop  app  builders  etc.

Problem  withapps  is  discoverability.Appstores  today  are  Yahoo  circa  1997.

What’s  BIG  globally?

Social  -­‐  Facebook,  WeChat,  Line*,  WhatsAppEntertainement  -­‐  Youtube,  games,  Instagram

*  Ever  heard  of  it?  230m  registered  users

We  tend  to  overes1mate  the  effect  of  a  technology  in  the  short  run  and  underes1mate  the  effect  in  the  long  run.

Amara’s  law

Shit  gets  twice  as  good  every  2  years.

Moore’s  law

Know  your  local

Mobile-­‐first  and  mobile-­‐only  internet  usersMarch  2012  -­‐  38%  Chinese  web  users  connect  only  with  mobile.  More  than  50%  web  browsing  from  mobile.

Do  something  different  to  get  your  app  no1ced.  Do  Leviathan  Warships  (not  literally).

siimteller@mac.comtwiAer:  @teller