multidimensional assessment of sustainability - shmelev (2014)
Post on 22-Apr-2015
180 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Multidimensional
Assessment of
Sustainability
Dr Stanislav Shmelev
University of Gloucestershire
Gloucester
2014
Empty World
Solar Energy Heat
Matter Matter
Recycling
ECONOMY
ECOSYSTEM
Matter
Energy
Matter
Energy
welfare
Economic services
Ecosystem services
Natural capital
Manmade capital
Full World
Solar Energy Heat
Matter Matter
Recycling
ECONOMY
ECOSYSTEM
Matter
Energy
Matter
Energy
welfare
Economic services
Ecosystem services
Natural capital
Manmade capital
Economy-environment interdependence
Environment
Energy
Economic system boundary
Capital
Waste
Life support services
Air emissions
Public Health
A
A
Environment system boundary
Capital stock
Production
Firms
Consumption
IndividualsNon-Renewable Resources
Amenities
C
KI
L
Recycling
W W
Ecosystem health
Energy generation
ERenewable Resources
W
Land use
R
R
A A
Criteria (Millenium Ecosystem
Assessment, 2004)Ecosystem services
Provisioning services Regulating services Cultural services Supporting services
•Food•Fibre•Fuel•Genetic resources•Biochemicals, natural medicines, and pharmaceuticals•Ornamental resources•Fresh water
•Air quality regulation•Climate regulation•Water regulation•Erosion regulation•Water purification and waste treatment•Disease regulation•Pest regulation•Pollination•Natural hazard regulation
•Cultural diversity•Spiritual and religious values•Knowledge systems (traditional and formal)•Educational values•Inspiration•Aesthetic values•Social relations•Sense of place•Cultural heritage values•Recreation and ecotourism
•Soil formation•Photosynthesis•Primary production•Nutrient cycling•Water cycling
UN Indicators of Sustainable Development
The framework contains 14 themes, which are slightly modified from the previous edition:
Social Environmental Economic�Poverty
�Governance
�Natural hazards
�Atmosphere
�Economic development�Governance
�Health
�Education
�Demographics
�Atmosphere
�Land, oceans, seas and coasts
�Freshwater
�Biodiversity
development
�Global economic partnership
�Consumption and production patterns
Gross Domestic ProductGDP – s the unduplicated value of all goods and services produced in
a year within the country’s borders measured at market prices. It is the standard measure of the overall size of the economy.
� by incomes; � by expenditures; and � by value added.
GDP = consumption+ investment+ government spending+ exports − imports
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
(expenditure)
Gross Domestic Product, 2008 (WB)
Afghanistan
Albania
Algeria
Andorra
Anguilla
Armenia
Aruba (Neth.)
Austria
Azores (Port.)
Bahamas BahrainBangladesh
Belarus
Benin
Bermuda
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
Canada
Cape Verde Chad
Colombia
Cyprus
Djibouti
Ecuador
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Finland
Greenland
GuamGuinea
Iceland
Ireland
Japan
Kazakhstan
Kiribati
Kyrgyzstan
Laos
Maldives
Mali
Malta
Marshall Islands
Mexico
Mongolia
Oman
Russian Federation
SomaliaSri Lanka
Taiwan
Ukraine
United States China
American SamoaAngola
Antarctica
Argentina
Australia
Bolivia
Botswana
Brazil
Burundi
Christmas IslandComoros
EcuadorEquatorial Guinea
Falkland Islands
Fiji
French Southern & Antarctic Is
Kiribati
Lesotho
Maldives
Mauritius
New Zealand
Norfolk Island
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Pitcairn Islands
SeychellesSt. Helena
Tonga
Tuvalu
Countries by GDP_2008
20,000 to 86,100 (43)12,000 to 20,000 (25)6,000 to 12,000 (28)2,000 to 6,000 (43)900 to 2,000 (23)1 to 900 (12)0 to 0 (55)
Environmental and Social Problems of
Development
� Depletion of Resources
� Environmental Pollution
� Destruction of Biodiversity
� Climate Change� Climate Change
� Poverty
� Wars
� Unhappinness
Optimal Scale (H. Daly)
� Haberl et al. (2007) HANPP =24% (2000)
� WWF Living Planet report (2014) loss of 52% species in 40 years
� CO2 concentrations: 400ppm, 800000 years high
� New environmentally and socially sustainable � New environmentally and socially sustainable economic models are necessary
Alternative measures
� Human Development Index (HDI)
� Adjusted Net Savings
� Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW)(ISEW)
� Multicriteria Measures
Human Development Index (Mahbub ul Haq & Amartia Sen, 1990)
Human Development Index (HDI): (equal weights):
� long life (measured by life expectancy at birth,
� education (adult literacy), and and
� the quality of life (measured by the real GDP per capita at PPP) (ul Haq, 2003)
Adjusted Net Savings: (D. Pearce and G. Atkinson, 1993)
Adjusted Net Savings:
is an indicator reflecting to what extent the nation satisfies the Hartwick-Solow rule, often called the “weak sustainability” indicator.
Adjusted Net Savings =
=S/Y-Dm/Y+E/Y-Dn/Y-Pd/Y/
Where:
Y = Gross National Income (GDP +Ir-Ip);
Dm – depreciation of fixed capital;
E – educational expenditure
Dn – depreciation of natural resources
Pd – pollution damages
Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (H. Daly and J. Cobb, 1989)
Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW):
ISEW={(C/D)+(E+F+G+H)-(I+J+K+L+M+N+O+P+Q+R+S+T+U)+(V+W)}/Pop
Where:
C – personal consumption expenditure;
D – index of distributional inequality;
E- imputed value for extra-market labour services;
F – estimate of the flow of services from consumer durables;
G – estimate of value of streets and highway services;
H – estimate of the flow of services from consumer durables;
I – expenditure on consumer durables;
J – estimate of private defensive spending on health and education;
K – expenditure on advertising at the national level;
L – estimate of commuting costs;
M – estimate of the costs of urbanisation;
N – estimate of costs of automobile accidents;
O – estimate of water pollution costs;
P – estimate of air pollution costs;
Q – estimate of noise pollution costs;
R – estimate of costs of wetland loss;
S – estimate of costs of farmland loss;
T – estimate of the cost of non-renewable resource depletion;
U – estimate of the cost of long-term environmental damage;
V – estimate of net additions to the stock of reproducible capital;
W – the change in net overseas indebtedness.
Source: Stockhammer et al. (1997)
Sustainable Development Strategies
Agenda 21 (United Nations Rio Summit ,1992)
Sustainable Development Strategy (EC 2006): all EU member states were to develop National Sustainable Development Strategies by 2007
The First National Sustainable Development Strategies:The First National Sustainable Development Strategies:Sweden (1994)United Kingdom (1994)Switzerland (1997)Finland (1998)Belgium (2000)Germany (2002)Austria (2002)
Sustainable Development Priorities and Indicators:
Consistency at the Top (WU, Vienna)Top level High level Key Issues
Country Consistency SDP SDI Consistency SDP SDI SDP
Austria 0.80 5 4 0.00 23 0 131
Belgium 0.00 7 0 0.00 31 0 193
Czech Republic 1.00 6 6 0.88 17 15 144
Denmark 1.00 21 21 0.44 87 38 92
Estonia 1.00 4 4 1.00 12 12 16
Finland 1.00 6 6 0.69 26 18 154Finland 1.00 6 6 0.69 26 18 154
France 0.78 9 7 0.00 50 0 16
Germany 1.00 4 4 1.00 21 21 25
Greece 0.40 5 2 0.40 25 10 26
Ireland 0.29 7 2 0.38 16 6 170
Italy 1.00 4 4 0.82 28 23 110
Latvia 0.62 26 16 0.00 79 0 214
Lithuania 0.00 27 0 0.00 48 0 535
Malta 1.00 4 4 0.50 28 14 214
Netherlands 0.00 13 0 0.00 22 0 54
Slovakia 0.00 11 0 0.00 28 0 238
Slovenia 1.00 5 5 0.84 19 16 145
Sweden 0.00 8 0 0.00 19 0 92
UK 0.67 6 4 0.00 33 0 121
European Union Sustainability Indicators
(12 Headline Indicators; over 100 in total)Theme Indicator
Socio-economic development Growth rate of real GDP per capita
Sustainable consumption and production
Resource productivity
Social inclusion People at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion
Demographic changes Employment rate of older workers
Public health Healthy life years and life expectancy at birth, by sex
Climate change and energy Greenhouse gas emissions
Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption
Primary energy consumption
Sustainable transport Energy consumption of transport relative to GDP
Natural resources Common bird index
Global partnership Official development assistance as share of gross national income
Good governance No headline indicator
Stiglitz, Sen & Fitoussi Report (2009)
Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress
Focus on Adjusted Net Savings
OECD Measuring Progress Initiative
Yale Environmental Performance Index (2002-2014)Objective* Issue Category** Indicator** Indicator - Long name
Environ-
mental Health
(40%)
Health Impacts (33%) Child Mortality (100%) Probability of dying between a child's first and fifth birthdays (between age 1 and 5)
Air Quality (33%) Household Air Quality (33%) Percentage of the population using solid fuels as primary cooking fuel.
Air Pollution - Average Exposure to
PM2.5 (33%)
Population weighted exposure to PM2.5 (three- year average)
Air Pollution - PM2.5 Exceedance (33%) Proportion of the population whose exposure is above WHO thresholds (10, 15, 25, 35
micrograms/m3)
Water and Sanitation
(33%)
Access to Drinking Water (50%) Percentage of population with access to improved drinking water source
Access to Sanitation (50%) Percentage of population with access to improved sanitation
Ecosystem
Vitality (60%)Water Resources
(25%)
Wastewater Treatment (100%) Wastewater treatment level weighted by connection to wastewater treatment rate.
Agriculture (5%) Agricultural Subsidies (50%) Subsidies are expressed in price of their product in the domestic market (plus any direct
output subsidy) less its price at the border, expressed as a percentage of the border price output subsidy) less its price at the border, expressed as a percentage of the border price
(adjusting for transport costs and quality differences).
Pesticide Regulation (50%) Scoring of whether countries have signed on to the Stockholm Convention and allow,
restrict, or ban the "dirty dozen" POPs that are common agricultural pesticides.
Forests (10%) Change in Forest Cover (100%) Forest loss - Forest gain in > 50% tree cover, as compared to 2000 levels.
Fisheries (10%) Coastal Shelf Fishing Pressure (50%) Catch in metric tons from trawling and dredging gears (mostly bottom trawls) divided by
EEZ area
Fish Stocks (50%) Percentage of fishing stocks overexploited and collapsed from EEZ
Biodiversity and
Habitat (25%)
Terrestrial Protected Areas (National
Biome Weights) (25%)
Percentage of terrestrial biome area that is protected, weighted by domestic biome area
Terrestrial Protected Areas (Global
Biome Weights) (25%)
Percentage of terrestrial biome area that is protected, weighted by global biome area.
Marine Protected Areas (25%) Marine protected areas as a percent of EEZ
Critical Habitat Protection (25%) Percent of critical habitat sites as designed by the Alliance for Zero Extinction protected
Climate and Energy
(25%)Trend in Carbon Intensity (weighting
varies according to GDP)***
Change in CO2 emissions per unit GDP from 1990 to 2010
Change of Trend in Carbon Intensity
(weighting varies according to GDP)***
Change in Trend of CO2 emissions per unit GDP from 1990 to 2000; 2000 to 2010
Trend in CO2 Emissions per KWH (33%) Change in CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production
*NOT USED Access to Electricity (N/A) Percent of population with access to electricity.
Yale Environmental Performance Index 2014
Sustainable Development Goals (2012)1. Poverty eradication;
2. Food security and nutrition, sustainable agriculture
3. Desertification, land degradation and drought
4. Water and sanitation
5. Employment, decent work and social protection
6. Youth, education and culture
7. Health and population dynamics
8. Sustained and inclusive economic growth
9. Macroeconomic policy questions
10. Energy10. Energy
11. Sustainable Development Financing
12. Means of implementation
13. Global partnership for achieving sustainable development
14. Needs of countries in special situations
15. Human Rights
16. Regional/Global governance
17. Sustainable cities and human settlements
18. Sustainable transport
19. Sustainable consumption and production
20. Climate change
21. Disaster risk reduction
22. Oceans and seas
23. Forests and biodiversity
24. Promoting equality, including social equity, gender equality and women
25. Conflict prevention, post-conflict peace building and the promotion of durable peace
26. Rule of law and governance
Sustainable Development Goals (2012)
The final document of the Rio+20 Summit outlined that Sustainable Development Goals must:
� Be based on Agenda 21 and the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation.
� Fully respect all the Rio Principles.
� Be consistent with international law.
� Build upon commitments already made.
Contribute to the full implementation of the outcomes of all major � Contribute to the full implementation of the outcomes of all major summits in the economic, social and environmental fields.
� Focus on priority areas for the achievement of sustainable development, being guided by the outcome document.
� Address and incorporate in a balanced way all three dimensions of sustainable development and their interlinkages.
� Be coherent with and integrated into the United Nations development agenda beyond 2015.
� Not divert focus or effort from the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.
� Include active involvement of all relevant stakeholders, as appropriate, in
the process.
UN Indicators of Sustainable Development
Indicators in the set of 9
Economic Social Environmental
GDP per capita Life expectancy at birth CO2 emissionsGDP per capita Life expectancy at birth CO2 emissions
R&D expenditure, % GDP GINI index Recycling rate, %
Government Debt Unemployment rate, % Share of renewables, %
APIS
The multicriteria decision aid tool Aggregated Preference Indices System (APIS), developed by Nikolai Hovanov (Hovanov 2006), presents a useful way to compare alternatives on multiple criteria in the situation of uncertainty on the relative importance of criteria in a given situation. It is a single decision maker tool as opposed to the group decision making tools, however APIS as opposed to the group decision making tools, however APIS has a built-in capacity to test alternative visions by considering different sets of priorities. The method requires explicit specification of alternatives, criteria and the decision-making matrix. The Multi-Criteria Aggregation Procedure in this method uses the principle of the Monte Carlo method and generates admissible distributions of weights using the information on relative priorities (e.g. increase in GDP is more important than the CO2 emissions reductions) obtained from the decision maker. The particular attractive aspect of the method is that it is capable of presenting the same development process as seen from the point of view of different stakeholders (e.g. an industrialist vs a green activist).
USA
USA, 3 criteria, GDP maximization priority
USA, 3 criteria, CO2 minimization & Life
Expectancy maximization priority
USA 1995-2011, 9 criteria: GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, Life
Expectancy, DEBT, UNEM, GINI, REC, REN, R&D investment:
GDP priority
USA 1995-2011, 9 criteria: GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, Life
Expectancy, DEBT, UNEM, GINI, REC, REN, R&D investment:
CO2 minimization and Life Expectancy priority
China Sustainability Assessment (1990-2008)
China, 3 criteria, GDP maximization priority
China, 3 criteria, CO2 minimization & Life
Expectancy maximization priority
China 8 criteria, GDP maximization priority
China, 3 criteria, CO2 minimization & Life
Expectancy maximization priority
Germany
Germany, 3, GDP
Germany, 3, CO2, Life Exp
Germany, 9, GDP
Germany, 9, CO2 Life
Thank you!
Follow Environment Europe on:
Twitter: @Environment_Art
Facebook: EnvironmentEurope
WWW: http://environmenteurope.org
top related