Multidimensional

Assessment of

Sustainability

Dr Stanislav Shmelev

University of Gloucestershire

Gloucester

2014

Empty World

Solar Energy Heat

Matter Matter

Recycling

ECONOMY

ECOSYSTEM

Matter

Energy

Matter

Energy

welfare

Economic services

Ecosystem services

Natural capital

Manmade capital

Full World

Solar Energy Heat

Matter Matter

Recycling

ECONOMY

ECOSYSTEM

Matter

Energy

Matter

Energy

welfare

Economic services

Ecosystem services

Natural capital

Manmade capital

Economy-environment interdependence

Environment

Energy

Economic system boundary

Capital

Waste

Life support services

Air emissions

Public Health

A

A

Environment system boundary

Capital stock

Production

Firms

Consumption

IndividualsNon-Renewable Resources

Amenities

C

KI

L

Recycling

W W

Ecosystem health

Energy generation

ERenewable Resources

W

Land use

R

R

A A

Criteria (Millenium Ecosystem

Assessment, 2004)Ecosystem services

Provisioning services Regulating services Cultural services Supporting services

•Food•Fibre•Fuel•Genetic resources•Biochemicals, natural medicines, and pharmaceuticals•Ornamental resources•Fresh water

•Air quality regulation•Climate regulation•Water regulation•Erosion regulation•Water purification and waste treatment•Disease regulation•Pest regulation•Pollination•Natural hazard regulation

•Cultural diversity•Spiritual and religious values•Knowledge systems (traditional and formal)•Educational values•Inspiration•Aesthetic values•Social relations•Sense of place•Cultural heritage values•Recreation and ecotourism

•Soil formation•Photosynthesis•Primary production•Nutrient cycling•Water cycling

UN Indicators of Sustainable Development

The framework contains 14 themes, which are slightly modified from the previous edition:

Social Environmental Economic�Poverty

�Governance

�Natural hazards

�Atmosphere

�Economic development�Governance

�Health

�Education

�Demographics

�Atmosphere

�Land, oceans, seas and coasts

�Freshwater

�Biodiversity

development

�Global economic partnership

�Consumption and production patterns

Gross Domestic ProductGDP – s the unduplicated value of all goods and services produced in

a year within the country’s borders measured at market prices. It is the standard measure of the overall size of the economy.

� by incomes; � by expenditures; and � by value added.

GDP = consumption+ investment+ government spending+ exports − imports

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

(expenditure)

Gross Domestic Product, 2008 (WB)

Afghanistan

Albania

Algeria

Andorra

Anguilla

Armenia

Aruba (Neth.)

Austria

Azores (Port.)

Bahamas BahrainBangladesh

Belarus

Benin

Bermuda

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Canada

Cape Verde Chad

Colombia

Cyprus

Djibouti

Ecuador

Egypt

Equatorial Guinea

Finland

Greenland

GuamGuinea

Iceland

Ireland

Japan

Kazakhstan

Kiribati

Kyrgyzstan

Laos

Maldives

Mali

Malta

Marshall Islands

Mexico

Mongolia

Oman

Russian Federation

SomaliaSri Lanka

Taiwan

Ukraine

United States China

American SamoaAngola

Antarctica

Argentina

Australia

Bolivia

Botswana

Brazil

Burundi

Christmas IslandComoros

EcuadorEquatorial Guinea

Falkland Islands

Fiji

French Southern & Antarctic Is

Kiribati

Lesotho

Maldives

Mauritius

New Zealand

Norfolk Island

Papua New Guinea

Paraguay

Peru

Pitcairn Islands

SeychellesSt. Helena

Tonga

Tuvalu

Countries by GDP_2008

20,000 to 86,100 (43)12,000 to 20,000 (25)6,000 to 12,000 (28)2,000 to 6,000 (43)900 to 2,000 (23)1 to 900 (12)0 to 0 (55)

Environmental and Social Problems of

Development

� Depletion of Resources

� Environmental Pollution

� Destruction of Biodiversity

� Climate Change� Climate Change

� Poverty

� Wars

� Unhappinness

Optimal Scale (H. Daly)

� Haberl et al. (2007) HANPP =24% (2000)

� WWF Living Planet report (2014) loss of 52% species in 40 years

� CO2 concentrations: 400ppm, 800000 years high

� New environmentally and socially sustainable � New environmentally and socially sustainable economic models are necessary

Alternative measures

� Human Development Index (HDI)

� Adjusted Net Savings

� Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW)(ISEW)

� Multicriteria Measures

Human Development Index (Mahbub ul Haq & Amartia Sen, 1990)

Human Development Index (HDI): (equal weights):

� long life (measured by life expectancy at birth,

� education (adult literacy), and and

� the quality of life (measured by the real GDP per capita at PPP) (ul Haq, 2003)

Adjusted Net Savings: (D. Pearce and G. Atkinson, 1993)

Adjusted Net Savings:

is an indicator reflecting to what extent the nation satisfies the Hartwick-Solow rule, often called the “weak sustainability” indicator.

Adjusted Net Savings =

=S/Y-Dm/Y+E/Y-Dn/Y-Pd/Y/

Where:

Y = Gross National Income (GDP +Ir-Ip);

Dm – depreciation of fixed capital;

E – educational expenditure

Dn – depreciation of natural resources

Pd – pollution damages

Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (H. Daly and J. Cobb, 1989)

Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW):

ISEW={(C/D)+(E+F+G+H)-(I+J+K+L+M+N+O+P+Q+R+S+T+U)+(V+W)}/Pop

Where:

C – personal consumption expenditure;

D – index of distributional inequality;

E- imputed value for extra-market labour services;

F – estimate of the flow of services from consumer durables;

G – estimate of value of streets and highway services;

H – estimate of the flow of services from consumer durables;

I – expenditure on consumer durables;

J – estimate of private defensive spending on health and education;

K – expenditure on advertising at the national level;

L – estimate of commuting costs;

M – estimate of the costs of urbanisation;

N – estimate of costs of automobile accidents;

O – estimate of water pollution costs;

P – estimate of air pollution costs;

Q – estimate of noise pollution costs;

R – estimate of costs of wetland loss;

S – estimate of costs of farmland loss;

T – estimate of the cost of non-renewable resource depletion;

U – estimate of the cost of long-term environmental damage;

V – estimate of net additions to the stock of reproducible capital;

W – the change in net overseas indebtedness.

Source: Stockhammer et al. (1997)

Sustainable Development Strategies

Agenda 21 (United Nations Rio Summit ,1992)

Sustainable Development Strategy (EC 2006): all EU member states were to develop National Sustainable Development Strategies by 2007

The First National Sustainable Development Strategies:The First National Sustainable Development Strategies:Sweden (1994)United Kingdom (1994)Switzerland (1997)Finland (1998)Belgium (2000)Germany (2002)Austria (2002)

Sustainable Development Priorities and Indicators:

Consistency at the Top (WU, Vienna)Top level High level Key Issues

Country Consistency SDP SDI Consistency SDP SDI SDP

Austria 0.80 5 4 0.00 23 0 131

Belgium 0.00 7 0 0.00 31 0 193

Czech Republic 1.00 6 6 0.88 17 15 144

Denmark 1.00 21 21 0.44 87 38 92

Estonia 1.00 4 4 1.00 12 12 16

Finland 1.00 6 6 0.69 26 18 154Finland 1.00 6 6 0.69 26 18 154

France 0.78 9 7 0.00 50 0 16

Germany 1.00 4 4 1.00 21 21 25

Greece 0.40 5 2 0.40 25 10 26

Ireland 0.29 7 2 0.38 16 6 170

Italy 1.00 4 4 0.82 28 23 110

Latvia 0.62 26 16 0.00 79 0 214

Lithuania 0.00 27 0 0.00 48 0 535

Malta 1.00 4 4 0.50 28 14 214

Netherlands 0.00 13 0 0.00 22 0 54

Slovakia 0.00 11 0 0.00 28 0 238

Slovenia 1.00 5 5 0.84 19 16 145

Sweden 0.00 8 0 0.00 19 0 92

UK 0.67 6 4 0.00 33 0 121

European Union Sustainability Indicators

(12 Headline Indicators; over 100 in total)Theme Indicator

Socio-economic development Growth rate of real GDP per capita

Sustainable consumption and production

Resource productivity

Social inclusion People at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion

Demographic changes Employment rate of older workers

Public health Healthy life years and life expectancy at birth, by sex

Climate change and energy Greenhouse gas emissions

Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption

Primary energy consumption

Sustainable transport Energy consumption of transport relative to GDP

Natural resources Common bird index

Global partnership Official development assistance as share of gross national income

Good governance No headline indicator

Stiglitz, Sen & Fitoussi Report (2009)

Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress

Focus on Adjusted Net Savings

OECD Measuring Progress Initiative

Yale Environmental Performance Index (2002-2014)Objective* Issue Category** Indicator** Indicator - Long name

Environ-

mental Health

(40%)

Health Impacts (33%) Child Mortality (100%) Probability of dying between a child's first and fifth birthdays (between age 1 and 5)

Air Quality (33%) Household Air Quality (33%) Percentage of the population using solid fuels as primary cooking fuel.

Air Pollution - Average Exposure to

PM2.5 (33%)

Population weighted exposure to PM2.5 (three- year average)

Air Pollution - PM2.5 Exceedance (33%) Proportion of the population whose exposure is above WHO thresholds (10, 15, 25, 35

micrograms/m3)

Water and Sanitation

(33%)

Access to Drinking Water (50%) Percentage of population with access to improved drinking water source

Access to Sanitation (50%) Percentage of population with access to improved sanitation

Ecosystem

Vitality (60%)Water Resources

(25%)

Wastewater Treatment (100%) Wastewater treatment level weighted by connection to wastewater treatment rate.

Agriculture (5%) Agricultural Subsidies (50%) Subsidies are expressed in price of their product in the domestic market (plus any direct

output subsidy) less its price at the border, expressed as a percentage of the border price output subsidy) less its price at the border, expressed as a percentage of the border price

(adjusting for transport costs and quality differences).

Pesticide Regulation (50%) Scoring of whether countries have signed on to the Stockholm Convention and allow,

restrict, or ban the "dirty dozen" POPs that are common agricultural pesticides.

Forests (10%) Change in Forest Cover (100%) Forest loss - Forest gain in > 50% tree cover, as compared to 2000 levels.

Fisheries (10%) Coastal Shelf Fishing Pressure (50%) Catch in metric tons from trawling and dredging gears (mostly bottom trawls) divided by

EEZ area

Fish Stocks (50%) Percentage of fishing stocks overexploited and collapsed from EEZ

Biodiversity and

Habitat (25%)

Terrestrial Protected Areas (National

Biome Weights) (25%)

Percentage of terrestrial biome area that is protected, weighted by domestic biome area

Terrestrial Protected Areas (Global

Biome Weights) (25%)

Percentage of terrestrial biome area that is protected, weighted by global biome area.

Marine Protected Areas (25%) Marine protected areas as a percent of EEZ

Critical Habitat Protection (25%) Percent of critical habitat sites as designed by the Alliance for Zero Extinction protected

Climate and Energy

(25%)Trend in Carbon Intensity (weighting

varies according to GDP)***

Change in CO2 emissions per unit GDP from 1990 to 2010

Change of Trend in Carbon Intensity

(weighting varies according to GDP)***

Change in Trend of CO2 emissions per unit GDP from 1990 to 2000; 2000 to 2010

Trend in CO2 Emissions per KWH (33%) Change in CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production

*NOT USED Access to Electricity (N/A) Percent of population with access to electricity.

Yale Environmental Performance Index 2014

Sustainable Development Goals (2012)1. Poverty eradication;

2. Food security and nutrition, sustainable agriculture

3. Desertification, land degradation and drought

4. Water and sanitation

5. Employment, decent work and social protection

6. Youth, education and culture

7. Health and population dynamics

8. Sustained and inclusive economic growth

9. Macroeconomic policy questions

10. Energy10. Energy

11. Sustainable Development Financing

12. Means of implementation

13. Global partnership for achieving sustainable development

14. Needs of countries in special situations

15. Human Rights

16. Regional/Global governance

17. Sustainable cities and human settlements

18. Sustainable transport

19. Sustainable consumption and production

20. Climate change

21. Disaster risk reduction

22. Oceans and seas

23. Forests and biodiversity

24. Promoting equality, including social equity, gender equality and women

25. Conflict prevention, post-conflict peace building and the promotion of durable peace

26. Rule of law and governance

Sustainable Development Goals (2012)

The final document of the Rio+20 Summit outlined that Sustainable Development Goals must:

� Be based on Agenda 21 and the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation.

� Fully respect all the Rio Principles.

� Be consistent with international law.

� Build upon commitments already made.

Contribute to the full implementation of the outcomes of all major � Contribute to the full implementation of the outcomes of all major summits in the economic, social and environmental fields.

� Focus on priority areas for the achievement of sustainable development, being guided by the outcome document.

� Address and incorporate in a balanced way all three dimensions of sustainable development and their interlinkages.

� Be coherent with and integrated into the United Nations development agenda beyond 2015.

� Not divert focus or effort from the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.

� Include active involvement of all relevant stakeholders, as appropriate, in

the process.

UN Indicators of Sustainable Development

Indicators in the set of 9

Economic Social Environmental

GDP per capita Life expectancy at birth CO2 emissionsGDP per capita Life expectancy at birth CO2 emissions

R&D expenditure, % GDP GINI index Recycling rate, %

Government Debt Unemployment rate, % Share of renewables, %

APIS

The multicriteria decision aid tool Aggregated Preference Indices System (APIS), developed by Nikolai Hovanov (Hovanov 2006), presents a useful way to compare alternatives on multiple criteria in the situation of uncertainty on the relative importance of criteria in a given situation. It is a single decision maker tool as opposed to the group decision making tools, however APIS as opposed to the group decision making tools, however APIS has a built-in capacity to test alternative visions by considering different sets of priorities. The method requires explicit specification of alternatives, criteria and the decision-making matrix. The Multi-Criteria Aggregation Procedure in this method uses the principle of the Monte Carlo method and generates admissible distributions of weights using the information on relative priorities (e.g. increase in GDP is more important than the CO2 emissions reductions) obtained from the decision maker. The particular attractive aspect of the method is that it is capable of presenting the same development process as seen from the point of view of different stakeholders (e.g. an industrialist vs a green activist).

USA

USA, 3 criteria, GDP maximization priority

USA, 3 criteria, CO2 minimization & Life

Expectancy maximization priority

USA 1995-2011, 9 criteria: GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, Life

Expectancy, DEBT, UNEM, GINI, REC, REN, R&D investment:

GDP priority

USA 1995-2011, 9 criteria: GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, Life

Expectancy, DEBT, UNEM, GINI, REC, REN, R&D investment:

CO2 minimization and Life Expectancy priority

China Sustainability Assessment (1990-2008)

China, 3 criteria, GDP maximization priority

China, 3 criteria, CO2 minimization & Life

Expectancy maximization priority

China 8 criteria, GDP maximization priority

China, 3 criteria, CO2 minimization & Life

Expectancy maximization priority

Germany

Germany, 3, GDP

Germany, 3, CO2, Life Exp

Germany, 9, GDP

Germany, 9, CO2 Life

Thank you!

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