naea 06-14

KCM Divided into Three Sections

“Unless you are experienced at selling homes, it usually makes financial sense to get professional help - homes sold by

agents typically sell at a higher price and spend less time on the market.”

FannieMae

EXISTING Home Sales

NAR 4/2014

100 = Historically Healthy Level

NAR 5/2014

PENDING Home Sales

50.6 51.2 50 50.647.8

27.7

19.3

26.2

43.946.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

July 2013 August2013

September2013

October2013

November2013

December2013

January2014

February2014

March2014

April 2014

realtor.org

Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)

NEW HOMEConstruction

~1M

~500K

1.2M

2000-2007 2008-Today 2015-2025 Projected

Annual Household Formations

Freddie Mac

realtor.org 5/2014 *projected

Type of Home Buyers Prefer

Note: respondents asked to choose the up to three best reasons from the above list, as well as “other,” “none,” and “not at all sure.”

Reasons Buyers Prefer a

NEW HOME

Note: respondents asked to choose the up to three best reasons from the above list, as well as “other,” “none,” and “not at all sure.”

Reasons Buyers Prefer an

EXISTING HOME

Properties that are no longer desirable because their characteristics do not match what buyers are looking for in a home.

•Homes that are located in once, but no longer, popular locations

•Homes that are lacking the amenities sought by today’s buyers

HOUSING OBSOLESCENCE

CoreLogic

PRICES

Median Home

PRICE

realtor.org 5/2014 *projected

FHFA 2014 1Q

Price Changes by Region (year-over-year)

Price Changes by State (year-over-year)

FHFA 2014 1Q

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 5/2014

S&P Case Shiller 5/2014

Year-Over-Year

PRICECHANGES

CaseShiller

realtor.com 5/2014

Percentage Change

HOUSING INVENTORY

Home Price Expectation

SurveyA nationwide panel of over one hundred

economists, real estate experts and

investment & market strategists.

Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 2Q

Average Annual % APPRECIATION

Pre-Bubble

Bubble

Bust

RecoveryTo Date

Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 2Q

PROJECTED Mean Percentage Appreciation

Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 2Q

Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018

19.5%

30.8%

19.5%

9.4%Pre-BubbleTrend

Bulls All Projections

Bears

Freddie Mac 6/2014

Freddie Mac Actual Rates

January 2013 – June 2014

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages

October 2013

Mortgage Rate Projections

Analyst Projected Rate 2015 2Q

Fannie Mae 4.7%

Freddie Mac 5.0%

Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.2%

National Assoc of Realtors 5.4%5/2014

RETURN ON INVESTMENTJanuary 2000 – May 2014

Yahhoo Case Shiller

Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

NAR 5/2014

NAR 5/2014

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 5/2014

Percentage of Distressed

Property Sales

35%

15%

18%

NAR 5/2014

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 5/2014

ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link

5 Fannie Mae Quote http://knowyouroptions.com/news/selling-your-home?sf2824381=1

6, 7, 20, 31, 32, 33, 34

Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory Homes for Sale, Year-over-Year Inventory Levels, Months Inventory, % Distressed Properties

http://www.realtor.org/

8 Foot Traffichttp://www.housingwire.com/articles/30026-trulias-traffic-spikes-in-april http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/

10 Annual Household Formations http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/May_2014_public_outlook.pdf

11, 17 Housing Starts & Sales, Median Home Price, http://www.realtor.org/presentations/presentation-housing-market-and-economic-outlook#sf2995410

12,13,14Type of Home Buyers Prefer, Reasons for New Home, Reasons for Existing Home

http://info.trulia.com/new-vs-existing-homes-survey-may-2014

15 Housing Obsolescence http://www.corelogic.com/blog/authors/mark-fleming/2014/04/the-rise-of-housing-obsolescence-and-shadow-demand.aspx?WT.mc_id=crlg_140407_O8BaD&elq=04394db44d5e46ac863e1df8b6911042#.U4pVjmcU-cw

18, 19Price Changes by Region, Price Changes by State

http://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-House-Price-Index-Rises-for-Eleventh-Consecutive-Quarter.aspx

21 Case Shiller Year-over-Year Price Changes http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CSHomePrice_Release_March2014-results.pdf

22 Percentage Change Housing Inventory http://www.realtor.com/news/april-housing-report-reveals-healthier-national-market/

23-26Home Price Expectation Survey, Annual Appreciation, Projected Mean % Appreciation, Cumulative House Appreciation

https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2014_HPE_Survey.php

28 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link

29 Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_052114.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/May_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/88271_.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/phs-05-29/forecast-06-2014-us-economic-outlook-05-29-2014.pdf

30 Return on Investmenthttp://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller http://finance.yahoo.com/

35 S&P Case-Shiller HPIhttp://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CSHomePrice_Release_March2014-results.pdf

40 Todd Duncan Quote http://www.toddduncan.com/blog/killing-the-sale-six-signs-that-youre-a-sales-poser

43 Ed Catmull Quote Creativity, Inc: Overcoming the Unseen Forces That Stand in the Way of True Inspiration

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

"Salespeople who suffer from call reluctance don’t believe in what they are selling or don’t believe in their ability to sell."

Todd Duncan

Craft is what we are expected to do;

art is the unexpected use of our craft.

Ed CatmullPresident of Walt Disney Animation Studios