naea 12-12 (2)

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

Return on Investment

Pending Home Sales

NAR 11/2012

October 2011 – October 2012

October 2010 – October 2011

100 = Historically Healthy Level

Pending Home Sales

NAR 11/2012

Single Family Sales (year-over-year)

NAR 11/2012

Condo & Co-op Sales (year-over-year)

NAR 11/2012

$1M+ Home Sales (year-over-year)

NAR 11/2012

New Home Sales

Calculated Risk 12/1/2012

New Construction

Calculated Risk 12/1/2012

Household FormationsAverage Annual Formations in Thousands

Census Bureau 11/2012

Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed

1/01/2011 Today

Federal Reserve

30 Year Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac

Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale

NAR 11/2012

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 11/2012

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

S&P Case Shiller 11/2012

Single Family Prices (year-over-year)

NAR 11/2012

Condo & Co-op Prices (year-over-year)

NAR 11/2012

FHFA 3Q HPI Report

FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year)

FHFA 11/2012

FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year)

Impact of Foreclosures on Prices

Clear Capital 11/8/2012

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

35%

24%

NAR 10/2012

Home Prices in the Short Term

Calculated Risk 12/1/2012

“The monthly Case-Shiller house price indexes will show month-to-month declines soon, probably starting with the October report to be released in late December. The CoreLogic Index has already started to decline on a month-to-month basis. This is not a sign of impending doom or another collapse in house prices - it is just the normal seasonal pattern.”

Home Prices in the Short Term

“We project a small, short-term price decline for many markets that recently experienced double-digit appreciation.”

David Stiff, Chief Economist of Fiserv

Fiserv 11/28/2012

PROJECTED

Home Prices in the Short Term

S&P Case Shiller 11/2012

Cost vs. Price

“Like a neighborhood cop on the beat, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) supervises banks, credit unions, and other financial companies, and we will enforce Federal consumer financial laws.”

‘CFPB’

CFPB Website

The ‘Perfect Storm’ of Regulation

US News & World Report 11/7/2012

The Qualified Mortgage (QM) rule - part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act - gives a borrower the right to sue if they received a loan that courts deemed the borrower did not have the ability to repay.

The Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) requires lenders to keep a 5 percent capital cushion on certain loans they make so that if a loan goes belly up, a lender has some skin in the game, too.

Basel III will mandate how much capital banks have to keep on hand for all their mortgage-related business.

All the uncertainty surrounding the ultimate form these important regulations will take has kept banks hesitant to lend.

FHA Mortgages

CNBC11/16/2012

“There are concerns that impending new rules in the mortgage market, dictated by Dodd-Frank financial reform, will make the overall loan market more expensive and drive more borrowers to the FHA.”

Diana Olick

“The FHA is now facing billions of dollars of losses on loans originated between 2007 and 2009. To help bolster its finances, the agency recently announced a series of measures including higher annual insurance premiums and a change to rules that allowed insurance premiums to lapse. Typical borrowers have to pay an up-front insurance premium of 1.75% of the loan amount and, starting in 2013, a higher annual premium of 1.35% of the balance, up from 1.25%, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com.”

Wall Street Journal 11/24/2012

FHA Mortgages

Impact of New Regulations

American Forum 10/2012

“We find using conservative economic assumptions that the bottom line effects of proposed Dodd-Frank and Basel III regulations may include up to 20 percent fewer loans, resulting in

600,000 fewer home sales.”

QualifiedResidentialMortgage.org 11/2012

“Borrowers who fail to meet the basic criteria for a qualified residential mortgage will have a harder time finding a loan, when compared to borrowers who do meet those criteria. They might end up paying a higher interest rate, as well…Financial analysts from J.P. Morgan Securities have estimated that borrowers might pay up to three percentage points more for loans that are subject to risk-retention.*”

*loans that don’t meet the definition of a qualified residential mortgage

Impact of New Regulations

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

3,4,5,6Pending Home Sales, Single Family Sales, Condo & Co-op Sales, $1M+ Home Sales

http://www.realtor.org

8,9 New Home Sales, New Construction www.calculatedriskblog.com

10 Older Households More Likely to OwnPAID SUBSCRIPTION - http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?cid=235444

11 Household Formations http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204707104578095223920995426.html

12 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

14 Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org

15 S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices Indiceshttp://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldocumentfile&blobtable=SPComSecureDocument&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3Ddownload.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1245342717782&blobheadervalue3=abinary%3B+charset%3DUTF-8&blobnocache=true

17 Single Family Prices www.realtor.org

18 Condo & Co-Op Prices www.realtor.org

20 FHFA State Home Prices http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/24216/q22012hpi.pdf

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

21 Impact on Foreclosures on Prices http://www.clearcapital.com/company/MarketReport.cfm?month=November&year=2012

22 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org

23 Home Prices in the Short Term www.calculatedriskblog.com

24 Home Prices in the Short Term http://investors.fiserv.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=723656

25 Home Prices in the Short Termhttp://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----

27 CFPB http://www.consumerfinance.gov

28 The ‘Perfect Storm’ of Regulationhttp://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/home-front/2012/11/07/5-housing-issues-hanging-in-the-balance-going-into-obamas-2nd-term

29 FHA Mortgages http://www.cnbc.com/id/49856477/To_Stem_Losses_FHA_Mortgages_Get_More_Expensive

30 FHA Mortgages http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323353204578128810214676692.html

31 Impact of New Regulations http://americanactionforum.org/sites/default/files/Regulation_and_Housing.pdf

32 Impact of New Regulations http://www.qualifiedresidentialmortgage.org/criteria.php

You get to decide.