nile hydropolitics in the nile basin - aalto university

HYDROPOLITICS HYDROPOLITICS IN THE NILE BASININ THE NILE BASIN

Ana

Elis

a Ca

scão

Stoc

khol

m In

tern

ation

al W

ater

Insti

tute

Lecture at Aalto UniversityLecture at Aalto UniversityHelsinki - FinlandHelsinki - Finland7 November 20117 November 2011

The River(s)The River(s)

Contribitution to Nile flowsContribitution to Nile flows

Annual (average)

Flood period

(average)

Eastern Nile Basins

(from Ethiopia)

Blue Nile 59% 68%

Tekezze/Atbara 14% 5%

Baro-Akobo/Sobat

13% 22%

Total Ethiopia 86% 96%

Equatorial Nile Basin

White Nile 14% 5%

The HydrologyThe Hydrology

The TopographyThe TopographyBlue Nile source

White Nile source

Ethio-Sudan border

Egypt’s

terri

tory

The land/waterscapesThe land/waterscapesEgypt

The land/waterscapesThe land/waterscapesNorth Sudan

Southern Sudan

The land/waterscapesThe land/waterscapes

Ethiopia

Lake Victoria

The land/waterscapesThe land/waterscapes

UgandaKenyaTanzaniaRwandaBurundiD.R. Congo

The The Water Water availability/utilisationavailability/utilisation

84 bcm / average84 bcm / average

Little utilisation

Little utilisation

How much water are Egypt and Sudan

utilising?

Water allocations defined by the 1959 Agreeement for the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters

The 1959 AgreementThe 1959 Agreement

Current water utilisation of the Nile waters

?

The storage capacityThe storage capacity

169

8.7 3.5

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

bcm

.

Egypt Sudan Ethiopia

The ripariansThe riparians

EGYPTSUDANETHIOPIA +

Equatorial states

Geography

Geography

Geography

Material power

Material power

Material power

Bargaining power

Bargaining power

Bargaining power

Ideationalpower

Ideationalpower

Ideationalpower

Power asymmetriesPower asymmetries

The enduring conflictThe enduring conflict

Control

Contribution

Utilisation

Donwstream

U

pstream

Allocation

Equitable utilisation

DevelopmentBenefits- Sharing

Towards CooperationTowards Cooperation

Donwstream Upstream

HydropoliticsHydropolitics

(HYDROPOLITICAL) REGIONAL SECURITY

COOPERATION:Development opportunities

Basin-wide approachInvestment projectsLegal negotiations

Donors support

CONFLICT:Asymmetric water-sharing / utilisation

Non-inclusive water agreements (contested) Uneven water developments

Securitisated hydropolitics

Past

Since mid-

1990s

The cooperation processThe cooperation process

since 1999 1997-2007 2012!?

The Two-Track processThe Two-Track process

NILE BASIN INITIATIVE COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT

Nile Basin InitiativeNile Basin Initiative

GOAL

Benefit-Sharing Paradigm

NBI Operational NBI Operational StructureStructure

NBI ‘philosophy’NBI ‘philosophy’

NBI ProgramsNBI Programs

NBI DonorsNBI Donors

The legal negotiationsThe legal negotiations

New Agreement Renegotiation of volumetric

allocations Prior use Acquired rights Prior Notification “New water” No-harm Principle

River Basin Organisation

STATUS QUO

New Agreement Renegotiation of volumetric

allocations New uses Acquired rights Prior Notification Investment Equitable and reasonable

utilisation Principle River Basin Organisation

STATUS QUO

?

DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANSDOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS UPSTREAM RIPARIANSUPSTREAM RIPARIANS

NILE COOPERATIVE

FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT

[...]

Article 14b: “(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure

that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security

of any other Nile Basin State."

Egypt/Sudan proposal:“(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree,

in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to adversely affect the water security

and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State.”

[...]

2007-2010: 2007-2010: The deadlock The deadlock

No water

allocations

included in the

agreement

POTENTIAL

Collective bargaining power

Challenge/Pressure

Balance of power

Changes in the status quo

Framework for ‘equitable utilisation’ (institutionalisation)

LIMITS

Agreement without Egypt?

Implementation challenges

Egypt’s response

Geopolitics

Donors behaviour

Access to investment

2010: The big challenge!2010: The big challenge!

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Future scenarios (as per 2009)Future scenarios (as per 2009)

Meanwhile... Meanwhile...

Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011

Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...

Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...

‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources

‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources

Regional integration:Towards economic

multilaterism

Regional integration:Towards economic

multilaterism

Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic

development

Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic

development

Hydropolitics pre-2011Hydropolitics pre-2011

Official ‘dyad’

UpstreamBloc

2011: Tipping point(s) in the 2011: Tipping point(s) in the hydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basinhydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basin

More tomorrow...ana.cascao@siwi.org