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OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Outline• The Global Ocean Observing System• The importance of the oceans as a driver of
climate change• Some consequences for the offshore industry• The current status of the Global Ocean
Observing System• The need for sustained observations• How the offshore industry can support realising
the goal of a sustained Global Ocean Observing System
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
What is GOOS?
The Global Ocean Observing System is a permanent global system for observations,
modelling and analysis of marine and ocean variables to support operational
ocean services worldwide
.
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
The Global Ocean Observing System
• First established in 1990• Led by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic
Commission of UNESCO under the sponsorship of IOC/WMO/UNEP/ICSU
• A programme to define and build an integrated, sustained observation and forecasting system for the oceans
• Is the ocean component of the Global Climate Observing System and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Why a global ocean observing system?
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Why a Global Ocean Observing System?
Multinational commitment to establishing a global ocean observation and forecasting system addressing key areas of societal benefit:- Understanding global change- Projecting climate variability- Protecting and managing marine ecosystems- Complying with international agreements- Protecting life and property on the coast and at
sea- Providing information for a variety of uses and
users
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Coastal GOOS
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Open Ocean GOOS
• Implementation plan for the Open Ocean module of GOOS is a major component of the overall plan for the Global Climate Observing System
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
What role do the ocean’s play in climate?
• Oceans contain 97% of Earth’s water, hence they are fundamental in the global hydrological cycle
• Oceans experience 86% of evaporation, hence they are central to energy exchange on planetary scales
• Oceans receive 78% of planetary precipitation; for example, a 1% increase in Atlantic precipitation equals the annual Mississippi runoff
• The oceans control the timing and magnitude of changes in the global climate system
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Why are the ocean’s so important?
Data from Levitus et al, Science, 2001
Because, that is where the heat goes !
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Warming of the World’s Oceans(An Analysis of the past 40 Years)
No Anthropogenic Forcing (Blue)
With Anthropogenic Forcing (Green)
Observational Data (Red Dots)
Source: T.P. Barnett, et al 2005
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Consequences
• Changes in this vast reservoir of heat have consequences for all of the climate issues of concern to the offshore industry
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008Photo: NOAA
Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina• August 29, 2005• August 29, 2005
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Tropical Storm ZetaTropical Storm Zeta• December 31, 2005• December 31, 2005
Photo: NOAA
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
• Thermal expansion combined with increased freshwater inputs leading to sea level rise
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Projected Sea Ice ExtentProjected Sea Ice Extent
Recent Model Runs Suggest this by
2040 - plus or minus a decade
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
146 million worldwide live within 1 metre of MHW
Hollywood, FL – Population Impacted 140,000
Miami Beach – Population Impacted 88,000
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Arctic Marine TransportIcebreaking (Double Acting) Container Ship Norilskiy Nickel in the Kara Sea
March 2006
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Temp Data Distributions since 1950.
1950-62
1963-75
1976-88
1989-00
Blue colors mean fewer than 20% of months had any obs.
300m 500m
Harrison, 2008
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Temp Data Distributions since 1950.
1950-621963-751976-881989-00
Blue colors mean fewer than 20% of months had any obs.
1000m depth
Harrison, 2008
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Argo Profiling Float ArrayMilestone
3000 FloatsOctober 2006
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Mean Sea Level has been rising at
an increasing rate: ~1.7 mm/yr past
century ~3.1 mm/yr past
decadeReconstructed From Tide Gauges
Based onAltimeters
IPCC AR4 projection: ~30-80 cm by 2100
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Sea Level Rise from Precision Altimetry
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Atmospheric Dynamics Ocean Dynamics
2.Density
1.Pressure
Temperature & Humidity Temperature & Salinity
Surface Height Sea level air pressure
X.Calbet, EUMETSAT, 2008
Observations: buoy, ship and dropsondes
Observations: e.g., IASI on METOP
Observations: e.g.,Argo floats(now 3000)
Observations: Satellite Altimetry
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
87%
Total in situ networks October 200759%
62%
81%
43%74%48%24%
Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate Status against the GCOS Implementation Plan and JCOMM targets
100%
100%
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
NW Shelves
ARCTIC
BALTIC SEA
MED SEAGLOBALOCEAN
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Sustainability
• The Global Ocean Observing System is proceeding against a well formulated plan
• BUT commitment to long-term sustainability of the system is weak
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
The Alliance
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
Advocacy
AMR Reflector
AMR Electronics
GPSP Antenna
LRA
Poseidon 3 Altimeter
DORIS
OGP/JCOMM/WCRP WorkshopGeneva, May 2008
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