plans of meteoswiss for 2007/2008

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

Plans of MeteoSwissfor 2007/2008

20th September 2007

Philippe Steiner

2 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Top priorities

Operationalisation of COSMO-2 until February 2008• still some migration work to do (frontend)

• Preoperational phase of CN MET starting October 2007• Project for the security around the nuclear power plants• High resolution (time and space) wind fields in PBL

3 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Plattforms for (pre-)operational suites Status at CSCS since July 2007

Cray XT4, 447 dual cores

IBM SP5, 768 cpu

2 nodes

SGI O3200, 8 cpu

number crunchersfrontends

Cray XT3, 68 dual cores

COSMO-2

COSMO-7DB and R&D

4 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Plattforms for (pre-)operational suites Migration of frontend functions

Cray XT4, 447 dual cores

IBM SP5, 768 cpu

2 nodes

Replacement of IBM-nodes and SGI prob. by service nodes of Cray

SGI O3200, 8 cpu

number crunchers incl. frontend

Cray XT3, 68 dual cores

COSMO-2

COSMO-7DB and R&D

5 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Plattforms for operational suiteFinal configuration

Cray XT4, 447 dual cores

IBM SP5, 768 cpu

2 nodes

Use COSMO-7 at 6.6 km out of the cascade

SGI O3200, 8 cpu

number cruncher incl. frontend

COSMO-2&

COSMO-7DB and R&D

6 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Operationalisation of new functions COSMO-7

• Numerics based on Runge-Kutta• Switch from 7km to 6.6km

• Preparation for mosaic

• New SLEVE II coordinates• with constant lowest levels

• New 60 vertical levels• same as COSMO-2, similar to IFS

• Improvement of the PBL diagnosis

7 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Operationalisation of new functions COSMO-2

• Latent heat nudging• using Swiss radar composite

• New SLEVE II coordinates• with constant lowest levels

8 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Development activities

• Improvement of interpolation (INT2LM)• Thermodynamic: better relaxation of water species• Use diagnostic PBL height in the vertical interpolation

• Improved representation of the land surface• Measurement driven soil moisture analysis (MSMA)• Mosaic approach

• Assimilation of new observation streams:• wind profiles from VAD/sodar• humidity profiles from GPS-tomograpy

• Improve PBL analysis by use of near-surface observations

9 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Vertical Resolution in the PBL

• Experienced problems with high vertical resolution in COSMO

• Causes for the problems with a high vertical resolution in the PBL?• Investigate relationship between x and z in complex terrain• Improve coupling numerics/physics

Radiosonde

“High-resolution” COSMO

“Lower resolution” COSMOother

12 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Project D-PHASEexploit the collected information

Issues that can be addressed

• QPF Performance of today NWP models in the Alps? Dependency on considered temporal and spatial scales or on the intensity regime of the rainfall?

• Improvements: What strategy has the highest potential to improve QPF in near future: Higher spatial resolution, ensembles (of what type) or calibrated forecasts (e.g. EFI)?

• Processes: How well can high resolution NWP models represent the processes leading to precipitation?

• Predictability: Can we forecast the predictability? Are classical ensembles or multi model ensembles more skillful – or can we determine the predictability from existing parameters of deterministic forecasts (flow direction, stratification, weather regime, …)?

13 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Project NCCR climate IITask Reanalyse Extreme Events

• Complete 30 years of COSMO-LEPS climatology• Calibrate COSMO-LEPS and verify• Derive new warning products from calibrated COSMO-LEPS

for multiple parameters (precip., wind gusts, temperature, snow…)

14 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Project OptiControlObjective

Exploit newest developments in building & information technologies, weather forecasting, automation and control systems to improve the indoor climate control of buildings (energy efficiency, costs, comfort)

Participants Sponsors

Competence Centre Energy and Mobility of ETH

swisselectric research

ETH Zurich:IBZ & IFA

Empa

MeteoSwiss

Siemens Building Technologies

Siemens Building Technologies

15 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Project OptiControlmodel predictive control

(uncertain)occupancyforecasts

measurements

disturbances:weather, occupancy

(uncertain)weatherforecasts

hourlyinput

system constraints, comfort rules

model-based optimisation

Controller

room temp.

heating

cooling light

Building

energy efficiency, comfort

COSMO-7

COSMO-2

COSMO-LEPS

16 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Project OptiControlTargets of MeteoSwiss

model-based optimisation

Controller

COSMO-7

COSMO-2

COSMO-LEPS

(uncertain)weatherforecasts

amelioration of local forecasts for near surface parameters (T2m, GLOB, LWIN, v, …)

characterisation and quantification of uncertainties with focus on special weather situations

assess postprocessing methods, e.g.:

MOS (spec. COSMO-7)KalmanF (new for LEPS)

17 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

MOVI = MeteoSwiss Objective Verification Index• verification of Model- (DMO & Postprocessing) and Human-Forecast

• quantify the added value of postprocessing and forecasters• based on the UKMO approach • every forecast day from T+1 to T+7

• COSMO-7, COSMO-LEPS, IFS• parameters verified:

• 2m-temperature: max, min• precipitation• relative sunshine duration• 10m-wind speed & direction

• methods for the score conversion:• Variance Reduction (continuous parameters)• Equitable Threat Score (categorical parameters)

VerificationIntroduction of a new global forecast score in 2008

18 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM 2007philippe.steiner@meteoswiss.ch

Thank you for your attention