ppr: spread of the disease from...

1

PPR: SPREAD OF THE

DISEASE FROM “STABLE” AREAS

Global Workshop on the World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS) for recently appointed National Focal Points for Animal Disease Notification to the OIE

Shenzhen, China, 13th March 2018

Tizzani Paolo – Veterinary epidemiologist

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Introduction

• One of the priority diseases in the FAO –

OIE (GF-TADs)

• The Global Strategy for the eradication of

PPR by 2030 was adopted in March 2015

• PPR present for many years in Central

African countries, the Middle East and

South-West Asia

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Introduction

• Since 2007, the disease has spread

further Africa: Morocco (2008), Algeria

(2011) and Tunisia (2011),

• Asia: China (2007), Bhutan (2010),

Tajikistan (2013)

• Europe: Georgia (2016).

4

OIE Member Countries’ official status 2015 for PPR

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OIE Member Countries’ official status 2015 for PPR

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Distribution of infection with peste des petits ruminants virus in the period between 2005 and 2015

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Distribution of PPR in 2015 and early 2016

28% countries/territories

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Analysis of WAHIS data Global level

Geographical range of PPR increased in recent years?

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Methodology

Evolution of the epidemiological situation in the period 2005 – 2015 by mean of

Occurrence trend

Presence of PPR: temporal trend since 2005

Percentage of countries/territories reporting the disease present

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y = 0.0045x + 0.1846R² = 0.7

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

020406080

100120140160180200

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% affected countries

Number of countries

Countries reporting the disease absent

Countries reporting the disease present

% affected reporting countries

% of the reporting countries/territories for each semester between 2005 and 2015 that notified PPR present

Increasing trend

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Methodology

Evolution of the epidemiological situation in the period 2005 – 2015 by mean of

Presence of PPR: spatial trend since 2005

Spatial trend

Spread of the disease from the stable areas to new areas

Geostatistical approach

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Distribution of infection with peste des petits ruminants virus in the period between 2005 and 2015

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Spatial distribution of the PPR outbreaks used for the spread analysis

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Regional spatial trends of the outbreaks in Africa

P-value n.s.R2=0.3

Stable

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Regional spatial trends of the outbreaks in Asia

P-value<0.05R2=0.7

Deterioration

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• The global spread of PPR beyond its traditionalrange is alarming, above all for the outbreaksthat border free countries

• Big regional differences between Africa and Asia

• Results of the analysis indicate the globalepidemiological picture at T0 (referencecondition for the Global Strategy for the controland eradication of PPR)

Conclusion

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Regional spatial trends of the outbreaks in Asia

P-value<0.05R2=0.7

Deterioration

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Analysis of WAHIS dataRegional level

The spread of PPR in Asia in recent years: analysis of temporal, spatio-temporal and

economic trends

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1. Temporal Trends

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

1stsem.

2ndsem.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% of reporting Members

No. of reporting Members

Members reporting the disease absent

Members reporting the disease present

% Affected reporting Members

Copyright © 2015, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department - OIE

% of Members in Asia, the Far East and Oceania reporting infection with PPR virus, between 2005 and 2014

Spearman’s rank correlation test underlines (S = 48.29, p-value = 0.02; rho = 0.7)

Deterioration of the regional situation

21%

32%

2121

2. Spatio-temporal

Trends

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Distribution of infection with PPR virus reported between 2007 and 2014, in Asia, the Far East and Oceania

2007

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Distribution of infection with PPR virus reported between 2007 and 2014, in Asia, the Far East and Oceania

2008

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Distribution of infection with PPR virus reported between 2007 and 2014, in Asia, the Far East and Oceania

2010

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Distribution of infection with PPR virus reported between 2007 and 2014, in Asia, the Far East and Oceania

2013-2014

2626

2727

2828

2929

3030

3131

3232

3333

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Distance of each outbreak from the PPR endemic areas (closest areas in yellow and the farthest ones in violet)

Spearman's rank correlation, S = 6.56, p-value <0.01, rho=0.9

Spread 2007

204 km

Spread 2014

1 663 km

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3. Economics Trends

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0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

An

ima

ls l

ost

Year

Copyright © 2015, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department - OIE

Direct economic losses due to infection with PPR virus between 2007 and 2014, as of 24 August, in Asia, the Far East and Oceania

24 000

90 000

+ 275%

3737

Conclusions

• The spread of PPR in the last 7 years is quite alarming

• All the indicators evaluated (temporal, spatio-temporal, economic) show a deterioration of the epidemiological situation

• A definitive eradication will necessarily entail bettercollaboration and communication (transparency and accuracy) between Members, better control of transboundary animal movements and use of vaccination when relevant

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Thank you for your attention!