rohit talwar - future of travel - itb berlin - 11th march 2009 handout

The Future of Travel and TourismITB Convention – Berlin - March 11th 2009

Rohit Talwar - CEO - Fast Future

rohit@fastfuture.com Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 Mob +44 (0)7973 405145

Image source: Hydropolis, Dubai

For details on Fast Future’s

seminar on Winning in a Downturn

April 30th 2009 - 6pm

QE II Centre London

please email

seminars@fastfuture.com

What do they Have in Common?

They all started in an economic downturn

How will the Downturn Develop?

http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg

Love is in the Air

Road to Nowhere

Suspicious Minds

Dancing in the Dark

GDP Growth India and China

8-10%

6-7%

1-2%

Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%

GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan

Prepare for Alternative Scenarios

Airlines in Crisis

Sources: www.flysilverjet.com / www.maxjet.com / http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg

Demographic Destinies 3 billion more people in 40 years –

Demographics is Driving Economics

1998

445 665

769

5266

4034

731

965

339

572

Source : United Nations2008 2050 Source: UN

Economic Power Shifts

The Top 20 in 2025?

Source: www.gs.com

US$ 3.76 Trillion investment by 2020

170 million Tourists by 2020

Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012

Over 900 new hotels offering 750,000+ rooms by 2020

900+ new aircraft by 2027

Middle East Travel and Tourism

rohit@fastfuture.com

2009

2010

2015

28%

19%

56%

16%

38%

43%

79%

12%

9%

Revenue Impact Against 2008Growth

Flat

Decline

203 RespondentsSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Profit Impact Against 2008

2009

2010

2015

25%

25%

55%

20%

37%

38%

73%

18%

9%

Growth

Flat

Decline

204 RespondentsSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Cost Cutting -Emphasis on Innovation -

Increasing Use of Partnerships -

More New Product Development -

Headcount Reduction -

Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers -Changing Organisational Structure -

Price Increases -

Focus on Premium Products -

Reduction of Product Range -

Changing our Basic Strategy -

Changing Business Model -

Staff Motivation Activities -Looking for Acquisitions -

Increased Marketing -

Other -No Change -

Selling Parts of the Business -

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Customer Relationships -

Cost Control -

Innovation -

Supplier Relationships -

Clear Internal Communications -

Marketing and Brand Promotion -

Other -

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Vacations 2015

http://www.maskworld.com/pix/costumes/large/91099-urlauber-fat-suit-tourist-fat-suit.jpg

47% - More47% - More

48% - Shorter48% - Shorter

70% - More Low Cost70% - More Low Cost

20% - More Luxury20% - More Luxury

Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

81%81% 76%76%

62%62% 80%80%http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/usa/images/vacation-travel.jpg http://stephen.banksie.co.uk/research/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/louvre33.jpg

Http://www.umanitoba.ca/campus/physical_plant/media/sustainability.jpg http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/1848797.html

Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Leveraging the Networks 74% - Will use Networks to Research and Find Deals

Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

64%

31%

3%3% 2%2%

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Travel Expectations in 2015

• No. of domestic nights 31% 27%

• No. of international nights 42% 23%

• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%

Up Down

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpg

Air Travel 2015

Air Travel in 2015

• 65% expect costs to rise on domestic and international flights

• Personal domestic flights 29% 28%

• Personal international flights 39% 24%

• Travel Budgets 44% 32%

Up Down

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/

New Business Models

85% - In-Flight / In-Room 85% - In-Flight / In-Room

66% - Experience Lounges66% - Experience Lounges

53% - Testing Vacations53% - Testing Vacations

67% - Monetize Clients67% - Monetize Clients

Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Under 100 US Airports by 2015?

http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpg

38%38%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Airports only in Major Euro Cities

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/aircraft-pictures/T5large.jpg

40%40%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Low Cost Carriers

http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermanwingsA319.png

62% - Half will Collapse62% - Half will Collapse

49% - Massive Growth49% - Massive GrowthData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

New Business Models / New Airlines

62%62%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Lufthansa-1.jpg

Preference for Rail over Air

66% - Europe66% - Europe

18% - USA18% - USAData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpg

http://www.jumbohostel.com/DynPage.aspx?id=64673&mn1=5293&mn2=5302

Innovations will Continue to Emerge – e.g. Jumbo Hostel, Sweden

Mobile Hotels - Movil

http://www.ohgizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/hotel_movil.jpg

http://www.gizmag.com/from-oilrig-to-luxury-eco-resort-11156/11156/picture/70690/

Rig Hotels

www.mondolithic.com

Hello Hypersonic?Hello Hypersonic?

48%48%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

$20,000 Commercial Spaceflight?$20,000 Commercial Spaceflight?

29%29%Image source: Virgin GalacticData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Space Hotels?

18%18%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

http://www.bornrich.org/images/space-hotel_18.jpg

Airship Hotels

30%30%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Source: Aeroscraft

http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpg

Augmented Reality

69%69%

Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

www.mondolithic.com

23%23%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg

Environment

Don’t Make What you Don’t Need

From requirement analysis through contract negotiation to implementation and demobilization in months Source: Siemens Industrial Solutions & Services - Airport Logistics

Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

Environmental Control• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero environmental

footprint (waste, energy use, emissions) will be out of business

• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all airlines

• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that dramatically restrict the number of flights they can take

• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly, proving the business benefit outweighs environmental impact

23%

77%

25%

18%

Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009

What does the timeline of developments look like for your

key markets?

Travel 2015 - Conclusions

• Demand will hold up

• Airline profitability is critical

• New business models will evolve

• Sustainability still on the agenda

http://dubaiworld.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/dubailand-wheel.jpg

If you would like to take part in our

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