special weather briefing 01/07/2013 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Special Weather BriefingSpecial Weather Briefing01/07/201301/07/2013

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Bill ParkerBill ParkerWarning Coordination MeteorologistWarning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Overview Tuesday: Tuesday:

An Upper Low moves into Old Mexico and begins to send copious amounts An Upper Low moves into Old Mexico and begins to send copious amounts of moisture back to the ArkLaTexof moisture back to the ArkLaTex

Rain begins in East Texas midday Tuesday… and reaches 100 Percent by Rain begins in East Texas midday Tuesday… and reaches 100 Percent by Tuesday Night areawideTuesday Night areawide

Flash Flooding could be an issue as early as Tuesday Night???Flash Flooding could be an issue as early as Tuesday Night???

Wednesday: Wednesday: A Surface Low develops in South Texas and lifts toward the ArkLatex with A Surface Low develops in South Texas and lifts toward the ArkLatex with

an associated Warm Frontan associated Warm Front Severe Weather likely South of the Warm Front Severe Weather likely South of the Warm Front Flash Flooding Flash Flooding / / Damaging Straight Line Winds Damaging Straight Line Winds / / Isolated Tornadoes Isolated Tornadoes / / Small Small

HailHail

Thursday:Thursday: Rain slowly ending from west to east across the Area Rain slowly ending from west to east across the Area 3 – 5 inch Totals expected by end of event (Could be Higher) 3 – 5 inch Totals expected by end of event (Could be Higher) Some Rivers may need to be WatchedSome Rivers may need to be Watched This event could end up being more of a benefit than a Hazard???This event could end up being more of a benefit than a Hazard???

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

National Water Vapor National Water Vapor ImageryImagery

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

L

L L L

H

H

TuesdayTuesday

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Tuesday NightTuesday Night

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

WednesdayWednesday

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

SVR Threat Will Be South of Warm Front

Wed Afternoon

ThursdayThursday

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

SVR Threat Will Be South of Warm Front

SVR Wx Threat Wed Night/Thursday

Models Rainfall Models Rainfall GuidanceGuidance

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

GFS ECMWF

HPC Days 1-3 QPFHPC Days 1-3 QPF

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Excessive Rainfall Excessive Rainfall Outlook Outlook

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

SPC Day 3 Categorical SPC Day 3 Categorical OutlookOutlook

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Potential River Potential River Problems??? Problems???

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Weekly Webinar Weekly Webinar – –

Thursday, Jan 10th @ 10 AMThursday, Jan 10th @ 10 AM

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana