[stockdice] application for stock exchange monitoring and business intelligent forecasting

Kiran Munir

08-SE-59

StockDice Stock Exchange Monitoring and Forecasting

KIRAN MUNIR

08-SE-59

Introduction

Available market tools.

Goals and objectives

Motivation

High level overview

System Architecture

Demo

Stock Market – Highly Chaotic

Is Chaos predictable?

Use of logic & History to map Chaos.

Solution – Stock Monitoring Tools!

Software available:

Trading Calculator.

Online Trading System.

Stock Chart.

Various tools with different results.

Investors are confused, which tool to rely on?

A seemingly perfect solution- ‘StockDice’ .

To develop a stock monitoring & forecasting tool.

“Constantly beat the market!”

Main modules:

1. Data Scraping Agent.

2. Stock Dice Control Center

◦ Monitoring Module.

◦ Forecasting Module.

Financial gain.

Need of an up-to-date system.

A proven source of information and

direction.

Research and learning.

StockDice

Stream Downloader

HTML Cleaner

Data Aggregator.

Data Splitter.

Data Scrapping Agent

Functions:

Sends the request to the webserver

Gets the response from KSE Server

Reads the response.

Functions:

Cleans the HTML.

Removes the unnecessary tags

Loads into XmlDocument.

Functions:

Conversion to pipe separated and comma separated

values.

Functions:

Splits the records.

Stock values fed into the StockDice database.

Analyzing data to convert it to

information.

Data- facts, numbers, or text.

Information- patterns applied to data.

Knowledge- Historical trends applied to

information.

Load transaction data to local database.

Manage the data.

Provide data access to IT professionals.

Analyze data by application software.

Present the data in a useful format.

Investment psychologies.

◦ Fundamental Approach

examine the company's "fundamentals".

They attempt to find an undervalued stock.

◦ Technical Approach

closely examine charts of the stock's past performance

look for trends that likely be repeated in the near

future.

X't = WtXt+Wt-1Xt-1+ ... + Wt-k-1Xt-k-1

Xt: Value of stock at a given instant of time

Wt: Weight applied to the value

Average is an equally weighted sum of the

previous k historical samples

The future is the realm of surprises.

Uncertainty is coherent.

Technical analysis is reactive- not truly predictive