the future of transport policy: was einstein right?

Inaugural Lecture Professor Greg Marsden18 March 2014

“We can't solve problems by

using the same kind of thinking we used when

we created them.”

Georgios Kollidas -Shutterstock.com

testing-Shutterstock.com

89% of lost time is in urban areas – The Eddington Review

‘New’ Challenges: Climate ChangeSource: Network Rail

Transport contributes 23% of global CO2 emissions - IEA

15 of our largest urban areas will not meet safe air quality standards by 2020

Road fatalities are still the leading cause of death for 5-19 year olds

28.5% of the UK population do not get 30 minutes moderate exercisePER WEEK!!!

A characterization of Problem ImportanceImportance

Time1980s 1990s 2000s 2010->

Economy & Congestion

Air quality

Climate Mitigation

Resilience

Safety

The same kind of thinking...

How we thinkabout demand

Infrastructureas main solution

TechnologicalOptimism

The demand for travel

Investment for growth

A New Realism

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1999 congestion Reference Case2031

Infrastructureschemes only

2031

Infrastructureschemes & road

user charges2031

Infrastructureschemes, roaduser charges &

behaviouralchange 2031

Was

ted

ve

hic

le h

ou

rs p

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ye

ar

(000

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0s

)

Curious Trends

Or more of the same?

Image Courtesy of Professor Phil Goodwin

Technological Optimism

The Role of the State

Image from Johnson et al., 2012

Not connected directly but....

RAC Foundation (2012)

Source: Phil Goodwin

?

Lifecourse

Seasons

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

April

May

June July

Augu

st

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

Nove

mbe

r

Dece

mbe

r

0

50

100

150

200

250

Med

ian

daily

tota

l cou

nt o

f cyc

lists

Source: Sustrans

Concluding comments