the future of work

The Future of WorkRob Biederman

Co-Founder and CEO, Catalant Technologies

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How did you envision your career … when you were 10?

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Did you envision your city?

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Did you envision your city?

Your office building?

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Your desk?

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Your commute?

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You probably didn’t envision this

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Or this

http://www.remoteyear.com/how-it-works/

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Historically, work was where

10http://www.logospike.com/company-logos-1382/

And for which company

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But work is an evolving term

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How did we get here?

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Hunter-gather groups move constantly

Prior to ~12,000BC

14http://www.regentsprep.org/regents/global/themes/change/neohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution; .cfm; Scanned from 1000 Fragen an die Natur, via The Metropolitan Museum of Art, Rogers Fund, 1948., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2959985

Permanent encampments formNeolithic Revolution ~12,000BC

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Small farms and skilled craftsmen

Agrarian America (early 1600s – late 1700s)

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jjc3/8220180903

16By E.L. Hoskyn - Plate from More Pictures of British History, London, 1914, p.61. Publisher: London. Adam and Charles Black. 1914, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=8386342

Farms factories

Industrial Revolution (late 1700s – early 1800s)

17http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2010/09/model-t-plant-to-become-a-museum.html

Factories bigger, more efficient factories

2nd Industrial Revolution (late 1800s – early 1900s)

18By The Opte Project - Originally from the English Wikipedia; description page is/was here., CC BY 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1538544

Mechanical digital

3rd Industrial Revolution (2nd half 1900s)

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Work is basically constant

…until brief but explosive periods of change

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Is the 4th Industrial Revolution underway?

21https://www.mbopartners.com/uploads/files/state-of-independence-reports/2016_MBO_Partners_State_of_Independence_Report.pdf

For millions today, and more tomorrow, work is changing

2015 2021

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# Americans working independently(Millions)

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The “gig” economy growing rapidly

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Lifetime “company man” ideal = gone.For whom we work...

How we source work…

Where we work…

For how long we work…

…are all changing.

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Why?

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Four topicsWorkforce1Employment landscape2

Other aids4

Technology enablement3

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The workforce today is more educated

of the workforce has at least a bachelor’s degree (versus 27%)39%

US census; 25 and older; Aug 2016 versus Aug 1996

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The workforce today is less unionized

of employed workers are union members (versus 18%)11%

US census; 2015 versus 1985

28http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/11/millennials-surpass-gen-xers-as-the-largest-generation-in-u-s-labor-force/ (data is 1Q2015); US census

The workforce today is more “Millennial”

of the workforce is Millennial34%

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Millennials think differently

See themselves at current job a decade from now

16%

Would like to work remotely75%

Feel in control of their career paths77%

The Deloitte Millennial Survey 2016

30US census

Manufacturing services

Jobs lost in manufacturing

Jobs added in education & health serv., prof. & biz services, and hospitality

23%

35%

Job movement, 2000 - 2015

31US census, Aug 1996 and 2016

Worker manager

Jobs lost from ‘sales and office’ and ‘production,

transportation, and material moving’

Jobs added to ‘management and

professional’11%

41%

Job movement, 1996 - 2016

32KPCB.com/internettrends; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carnabotnet_geovideo_lowres.gif

Ubiquitous global internet…

billion internet users, 42% of global population3

33KPCB.com/internettrends; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carnabotnet_geovideo_lowres.gif

…and ubiquitous smart phone

billion smart phones, more than 5x penetration in 20102.5

34http://fortune.com/2016/08/04/america-internet-speed-spikes/

Internet speeds are fast…

Mbps --- average download speed on broadband in the US in June 2016, up 42% Y-o-Y55

Mbps --- avg download speed on mobile, up 33% Y-o-Y20

35Fortune.com

…and getting faster…Gbps --- expected top download speed on 5G mobile networks1

36Akamai State of the Internet 1Q2016

…everywhereCountries with faster average connection speeds than the US14

37By Fuelrefuel - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5146472; https://www.skype.com/en/meetings/; https://blogs.skype.com/2016/04/28/over-1-billion-skype-mobile-downloads-thank-you/

Video calls available to everyone

billion Skype downloads, as of 4/161

From:

To:

38KPBC; By Victorgrigas - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=20348454

Storage way up10 billion

petabytes of data in the digital universe, growing 50% p.a.

~$0.06 per GB of storage, falling 20% per annum

Storage costs way down

39https://www.cnet.com/how-to/onedrive-dropbox-google-drive-and-box-which-cloud-storage-service-is-right-for-you/

Secure cloud storage and file sharing available to all Gigabytes of free storage

15 10 5 2

40http://coworkinghandbook.com/stats/

Coworking space expanding rapidly

Number of coworking spaces globally

20132007 2015

3,400757,800

41https://www.dol.gov/sites/default/files/ebsa/researchers/statistics/retirement-bulletins/historicaltables.pdf

Traditional pensions a thing of the past

# of private defined-benefit pensions

1983 2013

175k 44k

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What’s changed so far?Education1

Remote work increasing2

HR teams changing approach4

Gig economy ‘mainstreamed’3

43Number represent fall of each year; 2002 number estimated; http://onlinelearningconsortium.org/read/online-report-card-tracking-online-education-united-states-2015/

Online education continues to grow

2002 20141.2

5.8

# of higher education students enrolled in at least one online course(Millions)

28% of all enrolled students

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Remote working: rare common

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/270585; Gallup poll

1996 20159%

37%

Workers that have worked remotely

http://nextjuggernaut.com/blog/on-demand-economy-survey-stats-future-economy-funding-trends-on-demand-startups/; MeasuringGigEconomy_1609.pdf staffingindustry.com 45

The on-demand economy is the new norm

of US workers did gig work in 2015 29%

of US adults have used at least one on-demand startup42%

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“home-working will no longer be defined as a Friday luxury” - World Economic Forum

Employers are responding with a range of remote and flexible jobs

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Where has the impact been felt?

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Travel & transportation

49sf.eater.com

Task-oriented work

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Tech: developers, designers, product managers

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Consulting

“The shift is triggered when customers realize that they are paying too much for features they don’t value.” –

Harvard Business ReviewHBR: Consulting on the Cusp of Disruption

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Legal

HBR: Consulting on the Cusp of Disruption

“AdvanceLaw survey: 79% agree that “unbundling of legal services…will rise.” – Harvard Business Review

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Where are we going?[a few guesses]

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Smaller FTE core

Lower need for physical spaceReal estate

Need to invest in collaboration/remote technologiesTechnology

New skill set in sourcing short-term talent; HR becomes more importantHR

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Changing competition for talent

Shorter average tenure requires more-frequent talent acquisition and competition

Companies compete with each other AND with ‘going independent’ for FTEs

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More versatile career pathsTypical promotion path dies in favor of

more flexibility within (and outside of) organizations

Source: MBO Partners. America’s Independents A Rising Economic Force– 2016 State of Independence in America. Herndon, VA: MBO Partners, 2016

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What remains to be solved?[a lot]

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How will we train the next generation of leaders…

…if they aren’t in the office to do

trust falls?

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How will leaders create culture…

…when employees aren’t together 40

hours per week?

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How will external validation evolve to ensure career progression…

…if more and more people work independently?

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How will companies provide benefits and incentives…

…if “employee” becomes a more-fluid

term?

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What will we do with all that office space?

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What will we do with all that office space?

What we’re seeing

of executives believe that most great people, ideas, and

capabilities lie outside the walls of their company

84%

(Catalant 2016 CHRO Survey))

40% of U.S. companies can’t fill the positions they need

(McKinsey Global Institute)

$10 trillion in GDP will be lost because companies cannot fill the jobs

available (Boston Consulting Group)

of executives believe their company needs to evolve its approach to work format

and people management to be successful in the future

(Catalant 2016 CHRO Survey)

75%

In this workplace of the future, there will be little difference between “us” in-house employees and "them”, independent experts. We will both be working together to solve business problems through collective intellect.

-Future of Work thought leadership forum

Optional

Gone

Ticket Cost

Traditional Airline

Spirit unbundled air travel

We Are Unbundling Consulting

Training & recruiting

Travel expenses

Brand

Partner time

Firm overhead

Required labor

Training & recruiting

Travel expenses

Brand

Partner time

Firm overhead

Required labor

Project Cost

Gone

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Let’s sum it up

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We are likely living in the next period of massive change

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Where there is massive change…

…there is massive opportunity

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Enormous winners will be created

Andrew Carnegie

Henry Ford ???

Andy Grove Bill Gates ???

Wikipedia.org

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Where do you fit in?