tv in 2017 and beyond
Post on 05-Apr-2017
14 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
P R O V I D I N G I N - D E P T H I N S I G H T , D A T A , A N D A N A L Y S I S O F
E V E R Y T H I N G D I G I T A L .
THE FUTURE OF TV 2017TH I NKI NG O UTSI DE
TH E BO X ABO UT H O W WE CO NSUM E VI DE O
TRADITIONAL TV WAS LINEAR —A SET TIME, ON A SET NETWORK
BUT NEW MEDIA SOURCES CONTINUE TO GARNER A LARGER SHARE OF ATTENTION
Note: Other media includes time-shifted TV, TV-connected devices, radio, and total internet usageSource: Nielsen, Rentrak
P E R C E N T A G E O F T O T A L M E D I A U S A G E A M O N G U S A D U L T S
52% 48% 45% 40%
48% 52% 55% 60%
2013 2014 2015 2016
AllOtherMedia
LiveTV
Millennials43%
S H A R E O F C O R D - C U T T E R S O R C O R D - N E V E R S W H O A R E
M I L L E N N I A L S
WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY MILLENNIALS ARE CUTTING THE CORD
n=25,000 US consumersSource: GfK MRI Survey of the American Consumer, Fall 2016
Cordless30%
S H A R E O F M I L L E N N I A L S W H O A R E C O R D - C U T T E R S O R
C O R D - N E V E R S
CONSUMERS OF ALMOST ALL AGE GROUPS ARE WATCHING LESS TRADITIONAL TV
Source: Nielsen, January 2016
2-11-26%
12-17-38%
18-24-39%
25-34-34%
35-49-19%
50-64-9%
65+2%
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Q32012 Q32013 Q32014 Q32015 Q32016
T I M E S P E N T W A T C H I N G T R A D I T I O N A L T V , B Y A G E G R O U P
THAT’S HURTING EVEN TV STRONGHOLDS, LIKE SPORTS
Source: Nielsen, WSJ
96.17
94.4
92.94
90.99
89.01 88.78
Jul'14 Feb'15 Jul'15 Feb'16 Jul'16 Aug'16
Lost7.4Mhouseholds in2
years
H O U S E H O L D S W I T H E S P N( M I L L I O N S )
NBCSundayNightFootball: -10%
FoxSunday: -7%
CBSSunday:-6%
CBSThursdayNight:-15%
ESPNMondayNight:-12%
N F L R A T I N G S( R E G U L A R S E A S O N 2 0 1 5 V S . 2 0 1 6 )
55 52 5045
5954 54
49
CBS ABC NBC FOX
2010 2015
MEANWHILE, TRADITIONAL TV AUDIENCES ARE GETTING OLDER
Source: The Sternberg Report, Nielsen
M E D I A N V I E W E R S H I P A G E O F B I G 4 B R O A D C A S T N E T W O R K S
209 212260 273
325357 375 362
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
LESS ORIGINAL CONTENT IS BEING MADE FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER
Source: FX Research, December 2016
S C R I P T E D O R I G I N A L S E R I E S O N T R A D I T I O N A L T V ( U S )The#ofbroadcast&cablescriptedoriginalseries
dipped forthefirsttimeYoY
$54$57
$61$63
$67$70
$74
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AND PAY-TV PRICES HAVE FINALLY SURPASSED WHAT CONSUMERS ARE WILLING TO PAY
$72
$60
Upperlimitconsumersarewillingtopay
Lowerlimitconsumersarewillingtopay
n=4,000Source: Activate
M O N T H L Y P R I C E O F E X P A N D E D B A S I C C A B L E ( U S )
THAT DOESN’T MEAN TV IS DYING — JUST THE DEFINITION IS CHANGING
Source: Gfk MRI Survey of the American Consumer, Fall 2016
“Millennials are most likely to define ‘TV’ as anything they can watch on any device — a TV,
laptop, smartphone, or tablet.”
IT’S NO LONGER JUST TV NETWORKS
n=1,309 US consumers who watch at least five hours of TV per weekSource: Hub Research, January 2017
75%
33%
45%
72%
TVNetworks
16-24YearsOld 55+YearsOld
Q : H E R E A R E S O M E T E R M S R E L A T E D T O T V . W H I C H O N E S C O M E C L O S E S T T O W H A T Y O U T H I N K O F W H E N Y O U T H I N K O F T V ?
IN FACT, LOYALTY TO TRADITIONAL TV NETWORKS IS DIMINISHING
n=1,309 US consumers who watch at least five hours of TV per weekSource: Hub Research, January 2017
Only13%saythatnetworkbrandsareabigfactorintheirdecisionaboutwhichshowtowatch
Lessthanhalf(41%)canidentify theoriginalnetworkofashowthatairedonanSVODservice
SO WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?
DIGITAL DISRUPTION
LiveTV47%
Digital28%
Other26%
DIGITAL IS EATING AWAY AT LIVE TV
Note: Other = time-shifted TV & radioSource: Nielsen
LiveTV39%
Digital39%
Other22%
Q32014 Q32016
S H A R E O F M E D I A T I M E S P E N T P E R D A Y P E R A D U L T , B Y F O R M A T ( U S )
IT’S STILL GROWING, UNLIKE TRADITIONAL TV
Source: eMarketer, BI Intelligence
C H A N G E I N A V E R A G E T I M E S P E N T P E R D A Y W I T H M E D I A ( U S )
17%15%
7%6%
5% 3%1%-2% -3% -4% -2% -2%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Digital TV
64%57%
53%
31%38% 40%
2014 2015 2016
Set-TopBox Online
AND IT’S BECOMING A TOP CHOICE FOR VIDEO CONSUMPTION
Q: What is the main source you use to watch your favorite program? Source: Hub Research, n=1,200
T O P S O U R C E F O R C O N S U M I N G V I D E O C O N T E N T ( U S )
49.5 49.3 49.2 49.0 48.8 49.1 49.1 48.9 48.8
51.2 52.053.0 53.5 54.3
55.356.3 57.0 57.8
Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316
TV Broadband
MEANWHILE, CONSUMERS ARE SHIFTING FROM CABLE TV TO BROADBAND
Source: Leichtman Research Group
TotalSubscrib
ers(M
illions)
U S C A B L E S U B S C R I B E R S , B Y S E R V I C ETVdown1%,broadbandup13%fromQ314
CREATING AN INCREASE IN BROADBAND-ONLY HOUSEHOLDS
9.2 9.86 10.8912.09
14.816.3
18.019.9
21.9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
B R O A D B A N D - O N L Y H O U S E H O L D S I N T H E U S( M I L L I O N S )
Source: SNL Kagan
2016-2020:14%CAGR
4:104:48
5:095:28 5:43 5:53
4:38 4:31 4:22 4:11 4:05 4:00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Digital TV
SO DIGITAL MEDIA CONSUMPTION WILL CONTINUE TO GROW, WHILE TRADITIONAL STUMBLES
Source: eMarketer
A V E R A G E T I M E S P E N T P E R D A Y W I T H M E D I A ( U S )
+41%vs.2012
-14%vs.2012
$74.50$73.70
$42.80
$77.40
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WHICH IS CAUSING A SHIFT IN HOW MARKETERS SPEND THEIR MONEY
Source: IAB, PwC, BI Intelligence estimates
U S D I G I T A L V S . T V A D S P E N D ( B I L L I O N S )
Digitaladspendtosurpass TVforthe
firsttime
EXPLOSION OF SCREENS
72%
44%
18%12%
78%
54%
22% 19%
84%
61%
28% 25%
Smartphone Tablet MultimediaDevice SmartTV
2014 2015 2016
HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION OF MAJOR DEVICES CONTINUES TO INCREASE
Note: Multimedia Device = Apple TV, Amazon Fire Stick, Roku, Google Chromecast, etc.Source: Nielsen
D E V I C E S I N U S H O U S E H O L D S , B Y P E N E T R A T I O N
AND CONSUMERS ARE SPENDING MORE AND MORE TIME WATCHING VIDEO ON THESE DEVICES
Source: Ericsson
P E R C E N T A G E O F M O B I L E D A T A T R A F F I C V O L U M E F R O M V I D E O
2014 2016 2022
45% 50% 75%
WHICH IS SEEMINGLY EATING AWAY AT TRADITIONAL TV
Note: Digital TV = connected TVs, desktops, smartphones, and tabletsSource: Nielsen
1,455
1,143
1,3471,431
TraditionalTV DigitalTV
WeeklyaverageduringQ12015 WeeklyaverageduringQ12016
-7%YoY +25%YoY
V I E W I N G T I M E B Y U S A D U L T S ( M I N U T E S )
23%
15%17%
31%
20% 19%
Browsetheinternet,relatedtocontentI'mwatching
Watchaprogramonmymobile device
Online discussions aboutthecontentI'mwatching
2014 2016
AND EVEN CONSUMING ATTENTION DURING TRADITIONAL TV VIEWING TIME
Source: Ericsson, 2016
S E C O N D S C R E E N U S E W H I L E W A T C H I N G T V ( U S )
MOBILE IS TAKING OVER
OVERALL TIME SPENT ON MOBILE IS SKYROCKETING
Source: comScore, 2016
409,847
621,410778,954
864,32877,081
97,440
118,299124,787
June'13 June'14 June'15 June'16
MobileApp MobileBrowser
U S D I G I T A L M E D I A T I M E S P E N T O N M O B I L E( M I L L I O N S O F M I N U T E S )
AND CONSUMERS ARE SHIFTING THEIR DIGITAL VIDEO TIME TO MOBILE DEVICES
7%12%
27%
44%
51%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
U S M O B I L E V I D E O C O N S U M E R T I M E S P E N D, % O F T O TA L T I M E S P E N T O N O N L I N E V I D E O
Source: Ooyala Global Video Index
Mobilevideoviewingsurpasses
desktop forfirsttime
19%
23%
33%
34%
39%
50%
FileSharing
WebBrowsing
Downloads
Audio
Social
Video
IN FACT, MOBILE VIDEO GROWTH IS SET TO OUTPACE ALL OTHER APPLICATION CATEGORIES
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, November 2016
M O B I L E T R A F F I C , B Y A P P L I C A T I O N C A T E G O R Y( C A G R 2 0 1 6 - 2 0 2 2 )
WHICH IS LEADING TO INCREASED CONTENT THAT IS TAILORED TO MOBILE SCREENS
33%
43%
33%
63%
75%
54%
Desktop Mobile Tablets
2014 2016
INCLUDING VIDEO CONTENT THAT IS 10 MINUTES OR LESS
How to read: Viewers watched desktop videos less than 10 minutes 33% of the timeSource: Ooyala
S H O R T - F O R M C O N T E N T S H A R E O F T I M E W A T C H E D , B Y D E V I C E( G L O B A L )
91%
74%
64%
10.1
1.9
8.3
3.2
ProfessionalContent Pro-AmandAmateurContent
2011 2016
AND AMATEUR PRODUCED CONTENT
n=266 millennials aged 19-30Source: Boston Consulting Group
M I L L E N N I A L S ’ A V E R A G E H O U R S V I E W E D
18%
68%
385
489
628
788
938
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
G L O B A L C O N T E N T C R E A T O R S ( M I L L I O N S )
THE NEW TV IS DIGITAL, SOCIAL, AND CROSS-PLATFORM
DIGITAL PLAYERS ARE DOMINATING
SVOD IS CONTROLLING HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION GROWTH
Source: Nielsen, Leichtman Research Group, BI Intelligence estimates
88% 86% 83% 82% 80% 78% 76% 75%
35% 41%48%
55%61%
66%71% 75%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pay-TV SVOD
U S H O U S E H O L D S W I T H P A Y -T V V S . S V O D
Ifthistrendcontinues,thesame%ofhomeswithPay-TVwillhaveaccesstoanSVODserviceby2020
$11.9
$10.2
$5.7$4.9
$3.8$2.9 $2.7 $2.5
$2.0$0.8
SVOD SPENDING IS R IGHT UP THERE WITH MAJOR TV NETWORKS
Note: Red denotes a pureplay SVOD providerSource: IHS Markit TV Programming Intelligence
2 0 1 5 G L O B A L P R O G R A M M I N G S P E N D ( B I L L I O N S )
209 212260 273
325 357 375 3621 4
6 15
2432
46 93
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Broadcast/Cable Online TV
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN INFLUX OF ONLINE VIDEO CONTENT
Online TV: Amazon Prime, Crackle, Hulu, Netflix, PlayStation, Seeso, Vimeo, Yahoo, and YouTube RedSource: FX Research, December 2016
E S T I M A T E D N U M B E R O F S C R I P T E D O R I G I N A L S E R I E S ( U S )
+102%YoY
-3%YoY
13,643,000
17,275,000
20,777,000
22,428,000
47,497,000
AND LEADING TO MASSIVE (GROWING) AUDIENCES
Source: Company filings
NetflixhasmoreUSsubs thanComcastand
DirecTVcombined
P A Y -T V A N D S V O D U S S U B S C R I B E R S ( Q 3 2 0 1 6 )
012%
134%
234%
314%
4,4%
5+1%
GIVING CONSUMERS THE CHANCE TO CREATE THEIR OWN DIGITAL TV BUNDLES
Q: “How many PAID streaming video subscriptions do you have?” Source: BI Intelligence Survey, October 2016, n=1,146
N U M B E R O F P A I D V I D E O S T R E A M I N G S E R V I C E S( U S A D U L T S )
53%ofrespondentshave2ormoreSVODservices
AND ALLOWING THEM TO WATCH WHATEVER, WHENEVER THEY WANT VIA OFFLINE VIEWING
Source: Company filings
Theoffline viewingfeatureenablesuserstodownloadandwatchfilmsandTVshowsinplaceswhereinternetislimitedorexpensive— likein
subways,carrides,andplanes.
SOCIAL NETWORKS ARE EMERGING VIDEO PLATFORMS
SOCIAL CHANNELS ARE LANDING MAJOR TV DEALS TO HOST VIDEO CONTENT ON THEIR PLATFORMS
R E C E N T S O C I A L P L A T F O R M T V D E A L S
Source: Company filings, BI Intelligence
September2016
December2016
January2017
February2017
August2016
July2016
April2016
$3.1
$3.0
$2.5
$1.6
$1.5
$1.2
$1.2
$1.2
$1.0
$1.0
BuzzFeed
NewYorkTimes
CNN
HuffingtonPost
NowThisMedia
NPR
VoxMedia
Hearst
ViceMedia
Tastemade
AND PLATFORMS LIKE FACEBOOK HAVE EVEN PAID MEDIA OUTLETS TO CREATE LIVE VIDEO
A M O U N T P A I D B Y F A C E B O O K F O R L I V E V I D E O C O N T E N T ( M I L L I O N S )
Source: Wall Street Journal, June 2016
WHICH IS CAUSING A SPIKE IN OVERALL SOCIAL VIDEO VIEWERSHIP
Source: Facebook, Snapchat, YouTube, WSJ, Bloomberg, BI Intelligence estimates
45
6
8
10
Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16
4
6
8
10
12
Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16
6.0 6.3 6.5 7.08.0
Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q2'15 Q4'15
+200%
+150% +33%
D A I L Y V I D E O V I E W S , B Y P L A T F O R M ( B I L L I O N S )
$5.1 $4.9 $5.4$6.3 $6.4 $6.7$6.9 $6.6 $7.6
$3.6$5.5
$9.1
$13.7
$16.8
$21.5
Q1-Q32014 Q1-Q32015 Q1-Q32016
CBS Disney Comcast Facebook Google
AND HELPING TO DRIVE AD REVENUE FOR THESE PLATFORMS
U S A D V E R T I S I N G R E V E N U E ( B I L L I O N S )
#5 #3#2
FBadrevsurpassesTVforthefirst
time
Source: The Information
WHILE TRADITIONAL PLATFORMS GROW MORE SLOWLY
Source: Company reports, UBS
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Millions
M O D E R N D I G I T A L A D R E V E N U E V S . T R A D I T I O N A L T V R E V E N U E
MODERN TV IS ON EVERY DEVICE
48%
EVEN SHORT-FORM VIDEO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY POPULAR ON BIG SCREENS…
Source: Google, YouTube, December 2016
Y O U T U B E V I E W I N G T I M E O N T V S
Shareofviewersaged16-34whohavewatchedYouTubeontheirTV
screen
YouTubeviewingtimeonTVscreensmorethandoubled YoYin2016
2015 2016
Theaveragelengthofanonlinevideo:
4:20
…WHILE LONGER-FORM CONTENT IS DRAWING BIG AUDIENCES ON DIGITAL SCREENS
Source: NBC Sports Group
Over1Bminutes ofOlympics-relatedcontentconsumedon
YouTube
NBC digitalsitesdrew100Munique visitors, 29%higherthan2012LondonGames
2.2B snapsacrossLiveandDiscoverplatformsintheUS,with230M minofconsumed content
600MvideoviewsonNBCOlympics Page,with3.5Mlive
viewers consuming FBLivevideos
2 0 1 6 O L Y M P I C S D I G I T A L B R E A K D O W N
AND THE RISE OF INTERNET-CONNECTED DEVICES ALLOWS FOR ONLINE VIEWING ON TV SCREENS
Source: Digital TV Research, BI Intelligence estimates
115163
228307
397
487
584
673759
831870 896
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Millions
G L O B A L I N T E R N E T - C O N N E C T E D T V S I N S T A L L E D B A S E
Year-Over-YearG
rowth
6.6 6.24.6
0.5 1.1 4.3
0.15
2014 2015 2021
OtherSubscriptions LTE 5G
BUT IT WILL BE LTE & 5G NETWORKS THAT DRIVE MOBILE VIDEO GROWTH INTO THE FUTURE
Source: Ericsson
G L O B A L M O B I L E S U B S C R I P T I O N G R O W T H , B Y N E T W O R K ( B I L L I O N S )
MODERN TV ISEVERYWHERE,ANYTIME,ON ANY PLATFORM
top related