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Analyst’s Handbook: Energy
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 8, 2012
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Energy 1S&P Energy By Cap Size ytd 2US vs. Europe: Energy ytd 3Energy Prices 4S&P 500 Energy / West Texas Crude Oil Price 5S&P 400 Energy / West Texas Crude Oil Price 6S&P 600 Energy / West Texas Crude Oil Price 7Oil Prices 8S&P 500 Energy Earnings 9S&P 500 Energy Sector 10-11Relative Earnings 12P/Es 13Earnings Growth 14Earnings Growth Spreads 15US Oil & Gas Production & Rig Count 16Refining 17Crude Oil Outlays 18-19Personal Consumption: Energy 20Petroleum Usage 21Motor Gasoline Usage 22Natural Gas Consumption 23-24Petroleum Stocks 25US Crude Oil Contango, Backwardation & Inventories 26Commitments of Traders 27-30World GDP & Oil Demand 31-32
Figure 1.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14150
200
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12/7
S&P 500 ENERGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
150
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650
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750
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12/7
S&P 500 OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES(BHI BJS CAM DO FTI HAL NOV SLB)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
12/7
S&P 500 INTEGRATED OIL & GAS(COP CVX HES MRO MUR OXY XOM)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
12/7
S&P 500 OIL & GAS EXPLORATION &PRODUCTION(APA APC CHK COG DNR DVN EOG NBL NFX PXD QEP RRCSWN XTO)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
12/7
S&P 500 OIL & GAS DRILLING(HP NBR RDC)
200-day moving average
Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450
100
150
200
250
300
350
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500
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12/7
S&P 500 OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING(MPC SUN TSO VLO)
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- S&P 500 Energy -
Page 1 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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-20
-10
0
10
20
12.8
Figure 2.S&P 500 LargeCap
All Sectors
-20
-10
0
10
2014.1
S&P 400 MidCap
-20
-10
0
10
20
11.3
S&P 600 SmallCap
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2.5EnergySector
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-4.4
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-1.5
-55
-35
-15
5
25
6.2
Oil & GasDrilling
-55
-35
-15
5
25
.6
-55
-35
-15
5
25
-24.9
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
.2
Oil & GasEquipment& Services
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-4.7
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
7.6
-20
-10
0
10
20
.1IntegratedOil & Gas
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2.0Oil & GasExploration& Production
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-14.6
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-9.4
-20
0
20
40
60
8073.0
Oil & GasRefining& Marketing
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012 2013
-20
-10
0
10
20
4.9Oil & GasStorage& Transportation
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2012
-20
-10
0
10
20
-2.4
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- S&P Energy By Cap Size ytd -
Page 2 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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-40
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0
20
40
60
.7
Figure 3.S&P 500 LargeCap
EnergySector
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
-5.6
Europe MSCI
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-5.2
EnergyEquipment& Services
-80-60-40-20020406080100120140
10.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1.9Oil, Gas &ConsumableFuels
Source: Haver Analytics.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-7.5
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- US vs. Europe: Energy ytd -
Page 3 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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Figure 4.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201410
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
10
30
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CRB FUTURES PRICE: LIGHT CRUDE OIL*(weekly, dollars per barrel)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014.9
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.5
.9
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.5
11/28
GASOLINE PUMP PRICE**(weekly, dollars per gallon)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201420
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
460
20
60
100
140
180
220
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340
380
420
460
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CRB FUTURES PRICE: HEATING OIL*(daily, cents per gallon)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
12/7
CRB FUTURES PRICE: NATURAL GAS*(daily, dollars per million BTU)
* Nearby contract, closing price.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Comstock, Oil & Gas Journal, and New York Mercantile Exchange.
** National average.200-day moving average.
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- Energy Prices -
Page 4 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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Figure 5.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142
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12/7
S&P 500 ENERGY
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20143
4
5
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9
10
12/7
S&P 500 OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20143
5
7
9
11
13
15
12/7
S&P 500 INTEGRATED OIL & GAS
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142
4
6
8
10
12
12/7
S&P 500 OIL & GAS EXPLORATION &PRODUCTION
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20143
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
12/7
S&P 500 OIL & GAS DRILLING
Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation and Wall Street Journal.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
2
4
6
8
10
12
12/7
S&P 500 OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING
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- S&P 500 Energy / West Texas Crude Oil Price -
Page 5 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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Figure 6.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20144
6
8
10
12
14
12/7
S&P 400 ENERGY
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20146
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
12/7
S&P 400 OIL & GAS DRILLING
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
12/7
S&P 400 OIL & GAS EXPLORATION &PRODUCTION
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20146
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
12/7
S&P 400 OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
12/7
S&P 400 OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING
Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation and Wall Street Journal.
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- S&P 400 Energy / West Texas Crude Oil Price -
Page 6 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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Figure 7.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20144
6
8
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18
12/7
S&P 600 ENERGY
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142
4
6
8
10
12
12/7
S&P 600 OIL & GAS DRILLING
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
5
10
15
20
12/7
S&P 600 OIL & GAS EXPLORATION &PRODUCTION
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Wall Street Journal.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20143
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
12/7
S&P 600 OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES
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- S&P 600 Energy / West Texas Crude Oil Price -
Page 7 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
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CRUDE OIL PRICES(dollars per barrel)
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price
US Crude Petroleum ImportsAverage Price
Source: Platt’s "Oilgram Price Report" and Census Bureau.
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Figure 8.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-20
-18
-16
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-12
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Sep
PRICE SPREAD BETWEEN WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE & IMPORTED CRUDE OIL(dollars per barrel)
Source: Platt’s "Oilgram Price Report" and Census Bureau.
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
- Oil Prices -
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 142
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Nov
S&P 500 ENERGY(percent)
Share of S&P 500_______________
Capitalization
Earnings*
* Using consensus 12-month forward earnings forecasts.Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S.
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Figure 10.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20146
10
14
18
22
26
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
66
70
10
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120
130
140
Nov
S&P 500 ENERGY EARNINGS & OIL PRICE
West Texas IntermediateCrude Oil Price(dollars per barrel, 13-week m.a.)
S&P 500 Forward Earnings:Energy*
* 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: Platt’s "Oilgram Price Report" and Thomson Financial I/B/E/S.
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Figure 11.
- S&P 500 Energy Earnings -
Page 9 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201495
195
295
395
495
595
695
95
195
295
395
495
595
695
12/7
yardeni.com
200-day moving average.* Ratio scale.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX*
Figure 12.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20145
15
25
35
45
55
65
7585
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
7585
Oct11
12
13
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* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
S&P 500 ENERGY OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 13.
- S&P 500 Energy Sector -
Page 10 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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15
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25
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Nov
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
Nov
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
S&P 500 ENERGY VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 14.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
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0
10
20
30
40
50
-60
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50
Nov
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* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
S&P 500 ENERGY NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 15.
- S&P 500 Energy Sector -
Page 11 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201450100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950100010501100115012001250
50100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950
100010501100115012001250
Nov
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS: ENERGY*(1997=100)
Energy Sector
Integrated Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
* 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S.
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Figure 16.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
0
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550
600
650
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750
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850
900
Nov
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS: ENERGY*(1997=100)
Energy SectorOil & Gas DrillingOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesOil & Gas Exploration & Production
* 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S.
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Figure 17.
- Relative Earnings -
Page 12 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Nov
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E: ENERGY*
Energy Sector
Integrated Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
0
5
10
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25
30
35
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45
50
55
60
Nov
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E: ENERGY*
Energy SectorOil & Gas DrillingOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesOil & Gas Exploration & Production
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S.
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Figure 19.
- P/Es -
Page 13 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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Figure 20.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
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40
50
Nov
S&P 500 ENERGY vs. S&P 500(percent)
STEG*_____
S&P 500 Energy
S&P 500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
Nov
LTEG*_____
S&P 500 Energy
S&P 500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov
S&P 500 Energy_____________
STEG*
LTEG**
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* Short-term earnings growth: 12-month forward consensus expected earnings growth.** Long-term earnings growth: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth.
Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S.
- Earnings Growth -
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Figure 21.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-50
-40
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Nov
S&P 500 ENERGY vs. S&P 500(percentage points)
Energy LessS&P 500 STEG*
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-10
-5
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
5
10
Nov
Energy LessS&P 500 LTEG*
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
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50
-60
-50
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Nov
Energy STEG*Less Energy LTEG*
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* Short-term earnings growth: 12-month forward consensus expected earnings growth. Long-term earnings growth: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth.
Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S.
- Earnings Growth Spreads -
Page 15 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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3.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.0
3.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.0
Aug
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 141400
1600
1800
2000
2200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Sep
US CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION* (million barrels per day)
US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION(billion cubic feet, 12-month average)
* Including lease condensate.Source: US Department of Energy and Oil and Gas Journal.
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Figure 22.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
0
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1200
1400
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1800
2000
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2400
11/30
11/30
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BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE RIG COUNT(units)
Total USGasOil
Source: Baker Hughes Inc.
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Figure 23.
- US Oil & Gas Production & Rig Count -
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83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1411.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
11/30
REFINERY ACTIVITY(millions of barrels per day, 52-week moving average)
Crude Oil Input to Refineries
Source: US Department of Energy.
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Figure 24.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1464
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
11/30
TOTAL US REFINERY OPERABLE UTILIZATION RATE(percent)
Source: US Department of Energy.
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Figure 25.
- Refining -
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
5
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35
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45
50
55
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65
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0
250
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1000
1250
1500
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2000
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2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
3750
4000
4250
4500
Oct
Nov
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & WORLD CRUDE OIL OUTLAYS*(REVENUES)
Total World Crude Oil Revenues(billion dollars)
S&P 500 Forward Earnings: Energy**
* Total world daily crude oil demand multiplied by 365 days and by the price of Brent crude oil.** 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.
Source: Energy Intelligence Group, "Oil Market Intelligence" and Thomson Financial.
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Figure 26.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1425
75
125
175
225
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
725
775
825
875
925
975
1025
25
75
125
175
225
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
725
775
825
875
925
975
1025
Oct
Oct
CRUDE OIL OUTLAYS(billion dollars, annualized)
United States___________
Crude Oil Outlays*
Petroleum Refineries Shipments(saar)
* Total daily crude oil demand multiplied by 365 days and the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil.Source: Energy Intelligence Group, "Oil Market Intelligence" and Census Bureau.
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Figure 27.
- Crude Oil Outlays -
Page 18 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Oct
CRUDE OIL OUTLAYS*(billion dollars, annualized)
Western Europe_____________
US dollars
Euros
* Total daily crude oil output multiplied by 365 days and the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil and Euro.Source: Energy Intelligence Group, "Oil Market Intelligence."
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Oct
Oct
CRUDE OIL OUTLAYS*(billion dollars, annualized)
Asia
Latin America
* Total daily crude oil output multiplied by 365 days and the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil.Source: Energy Intelligence Group, "Oil Market Intelligence."
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
- Crude Oil Outlays -
Page 19 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 143.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Oct
SPENDING ON ENERGY GOODS & SERVICES(as percent of disposable personal income)
yardeni.com
Source: Department of Commerce.
Figure 30.
- Personal Consumption: Energy -
Page 20 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1416
17
18
19
20
21
22
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
11/30
US PETROLEUM USAGE(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
Total Petroleum Usage(4-week average)
Source: US Department of Energy.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
11/30
yardeni.com
US PETROLEUM USAGE(yearly percent change in 52-week moving average)
Petroleum Usage(4-week average)
Source: US Department of Energy.
Figure 32.
- Petroleum Usage -
Page 21 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 147.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
11/30
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
Total Gasoline Usage
Source: Department of Energy.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
11/30
US MOTOR GASOLINE USAGE(yearly percent change in 52-week ma)
Total Gasoline Usage(4-week average)
Source: US Department of Energy.
yardeni.com
Figure 34.
- Motor Gasoline Usage -
Page 22 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
10000
20000
30000
0
10000
20000
30000
2011
NATURAL GAS: SUPPLY & DEMAND(billion cubic feet)
Consumption
Dry Production
Net Imports
Source: Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 142000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2011
NATURAL GAS: CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR(billion cubic feet)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Electric Power
Source: Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
- Natural Gas Consumption -
Page 23 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sep
US NATURAL GAS(trillion cubic feet, 12-month sum)
ConsumptionProductionNet Imports
Source; Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132
4
6
8
10
2
4
6
8
10
Aug
US NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR(trillion cubic feet, 12-month sum)
ResidentialCommercialIndustrialElectric Power
Source; Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review.
yardeni.com
Figure 38.
- Natural Gas Consumption -
Page 24 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
11/30
US PETROLEUM STOCKS: CRUDE OIL*(millions of barrels)
* Excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Source: US Department of Energy.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14160
180
200
220
240
260
160
180
200
220
240
260
11/30
US PETROLEUM STOCKS: FINISHED MOTOR GASOLINE(millions of barrels)
Source: US Department of Energy.
yardeni.com
Figure 40.
- Petroleum Stocks -
Page 25 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14250
275
300
325
350
375
400
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
11/30
US CRUDE OIL CONTANGO, BACKWARDATION, & INVENTORIES
US Petroluem Stocks*(million barrels, 4-week average)
Contango Spread**(dollars per barrel)
* Excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve.** Light crude oil futures: nearby contract closing price minus 6-month contract closing price.
Source: US Department of Energy and Wall Street Journal.
yardeni.com
Figure 41.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1410
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
12/7
CRB FUTURES PRICE: LIGHT CRUDE OIL(dollars per barrel)
Nearby contract
6-month contract settlement
Source: Wall Street Journal.
yardeni.com
Figure 42.
- US Crude Oil Contango, Backwardation & Inventories -
Page 26 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 43.
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
12/4
LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL (WTI)(contracts of 1,000 barrels)
Total Reportable Net Position(Long position minus short position)
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-350000-300000-250000-200000-150000-100000-50000050000100000150000
-350000-300000-250000-200000-150000-100000-50000
050000
100000150000
12/4
Commercial Hedgers
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-75000
-15000
45000
105000
165000
225000
285000
-75000
-15000
45000
105000
165000
225000
285000
12/4Large Speculators
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
12/4
Small Tradersyardeni.com
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
- Commitments of Traders -
Page 27 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 44.
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
12/4
GASOLINE BLENDSTOCK(contracts of 42,000 US gallons) Total Reportable Net Position
(Long position minus short position)
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-130000
-110000
-90000
-70000
-50000
-30000
-10000
10000
30000
-130000
-110000
-90000
-70000
-50000
-30000
-10000
10000
30000
12/4Commercial Hedgers
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-50000
0
50000
100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
12/4Large Speculators
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
12/4
Small Traders
yardeni.com
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
- Commitments of Traders -
Page 28 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 45.
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
12/4
#2 HEATING OIL: NY HARBOR(contracts of 42,000 US gallons) Total Reportable Net Position
(Long position minus short position)
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
12/4
Commercial Hedgers
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
12/4
Large Speculators
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
12/4
Small Traders
yardeni.com
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
- Commitments of Traders -
Page 29 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 46.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
12/4
NATURAL GAS(contracts of 10,000 MMBTUs)
Total Reportable Net Position(Long position minus short position)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
12/4
Commercial Hedgers
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-275000
-225000
-175000
-125000
-75000
-25000
25000
75000
-275000
-225000
-175000
-125000
-75000
-25000
25000
75000
12/4
Large Speculators
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
12/4
Small Traders
yardeni.com
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
- Commitments of Traders -
Page 30 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 47.
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15-2
0
2
4
6
8
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2011
2008
yardeni.com
REAL GDP vs CRUDE OIL DEMAND(yearly percent change) World_____
Oil Demand
Real GDP
yardeni.com
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2011
2008
Industrial Countries*________________
Oil Demand
Real GDP
yardeni.com
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011
2008
yardeni.com
Emerging Countries**_________________
Oil Demand
Real GDP
* US, Western Europe, and Japan** Total excluding US, Western Europe, and Japan.Source: Oil Market Intelligence and International Monetary Fund.
yardeni.com
- World GDP & Oil Demand -
Page 31 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 141.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011
CRUDE OIL DEMAND / NOMINAL GDP*
World
* Current international dollars. Gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP.Source: Oil Market Intelligence and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
yardeni.com
Figure 48.
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2011
CRUDE OIL DEMAND / NOMINAL GDP*
Old World**
New World***
** US, Western Europe, and Japan.*** Total excluding US, Western Europe, and Japan.
* Current international dollars. Gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP.
Source: Oil Market Intelligence and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
yardeni.com
Figure 49.
- World GDP & Oil Demand -
Page 32 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Energy www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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