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Country Briefing:Canada
Yardeni Research, Inc.
October 6, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
October 6, 2020 / Canada www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Real GDP 1-2Monthly GDP by Industry 3Merchandise Trade 4Retail Sales 5Nominal Retail Sales Components 6-8Employment 9-10Unemployment & Partcipation Rates 11Consumer Price Index 12-14Canadian Dollar & Commodity Prices 15Interest Rates 16-17Monthly GDP Service-Providing 18-20Monthly GDP Goods-Producing 21-22
Figure 1.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Q2
CANADA REAL GDP(quarterly percent change, saar)
Total (-38.7)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Q2
HouseholdConsumption (-41.5)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Q2
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-45.6)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Real GDP
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Figure 2.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100
-50
0
-100
-50
0
Q2
CANADA REAL GDP(quarterly percent change, saar)
Exports of Goods& Services (-55.6)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Q2
Imports of Goods& Services (-64.1)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q2
Government Expenditures OnGoods & Services (-10.4)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Real GDP
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Figure 3.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Jul
CANADA REAL MONTHLY GDP(billions of 2012 Canadian dollars, saar)
Total (1878.8)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022850
1050
1250
1450
850
1050
1250
1450
JulService-ProvidingIndustries (1330.0)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
Jul
Goods-ProducingIndustries (546.0)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Monthly GDP by Industry
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Figure 4.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
Aug
CANADA GOODS TRADE BALANCE(billion Canadian dollars, saar)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022300
400
500
600
700
300
400
500
600
700
Aug
(billion Canadian dollars, saar)
Exports
Imports
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
-20
0
20
40
-40
-20
0
20
40
Aug
(yearly percent change)
ExportsImports
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Merchandise Trade
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650JulCANADA RETAIL SALES
(billions of Canadian dollars, saar)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jul
CANADA RETAIL SALES(yearly percent change)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 6.
Retail Sales
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Figure 7.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jul
CANADA RETAIL SALES(billions of Canadian dollars, saar)
Total
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22230
260
290
320
350
380
410
440
Jul
Ex Autos& GasStations
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2225
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
Jul
Total ExGasoline
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2230
40
50
60
70
Jul
GasolineStations
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22270
300
330
360
390
420
450
480
Jul
Total ExMotorVehicles
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2250
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Jul
Motor Vehicles& Parts Dealers
yardeni.com
Nominal Retail Sales Components
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Figure 8.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
JulCANADA RETAIL SALES(billions of Canadian dollars, saar)
Furniture & HomeFurnishings Stores
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222
6
10
14
18
22
26
30
34
38
42
Jul
Clothing& AccessoryStores
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2221
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
Jul
Building Materials &Garden Equipment
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2221
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
Jul
Health & Personal CareStores
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 223035404550556065707580859095
100105110115
Aug
Electronics &Appliance Stores
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 223.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
15.5
16.5
Jul
Sporting Goods,Hobby, Book& Music Stores
yardeni.com
Nominal Retail Sales Components
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Figure 9.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2240
50
60
70
80
90
Jul
CANADA RETAIL SALES(billions of Canadian dollars, saar)
General MerchandiseStores
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 229
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20Jul
MiscellaneousRetailers
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2280
100
120
140
160
180
Jul
Food &BeverageStores
yardeni.com
Nominal Retail Sales Components
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Figure 10.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202214.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
Aug
CANADA EMPLOYMENT(millions, sa)
Total
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202212.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
AugFull-Time
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
Aug
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Part-Time
Employment
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3550
-3300
-3050
-2800
-2550
-2300
-2050
-1800
-1550
-1300
-1050
-800
-550
-300
-50
200
450
700
950
-3550
-3300
-3050
-2800
-2550
-2300
-2050
-1800
-1550
-1300
-1050
-800
-550
-300
-50
200
450
700
950
Aug
CANADA EMPLOYMENT(yearly change, thousands)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.comyardeni.com
Figure 11.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2200
-1800
-1400
-1000
-600
-200
200
600
-2200
-1800
-1400
-1000
-600
-200
200
600
Aug
CANADA EMPLOYMENT(yearly change, thousands)
Full-TimePart-Time
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.comyardeni.com
Figure 12.
Employment
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20225.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
Aug
CANADA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(percent)
yardeni.com
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
Figure 13.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202258.5
59.0
59.5
60.0
60.5
61.0
61.5
62.0
62.5
63.0
63.5
64.0
64.5
65.0
65.5
66.0
66.5
67.0
67.5
68.0
58.5
59.0
59.5
60.0
60.5
61.0
61.5
62.0
62.5
63.0
63.5
64.0
64.5
65.0
65.5
66.0
66.5
67.0
67.5
68.0
Aug
CANADA PARTICIPATION RATE(percent)
yardeni.com
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
Figure 14.
Unemployment & Partcipation Rates
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
Aug
CANADA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Total (0.1)Bank of Canada’sCore Rate* (0.9)Excluding Food& Energy (0.5)
* Excludes eight volatile components (fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, Inter-city transportations and tobacco) furtheradjusted to exclude effects of changes to indirect taxes.Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30
-15
0
15
30
-30
-15
0
15
30
Aug
CANADA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Food & Energy (-0.6)Food (1.8)Energy (-6.3)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 16.
Consumer Price Index
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5.0
-2.5
.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
-5.0
-2.5
.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Aug
CANADA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Goods (-0.2)Services (0.5)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 17.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Aug
CANADA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Shelter (1.5)Household Operations &Furnishings (0.4)Clothing & Footwear (-1.3)Transportation (-1.3)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
Consumer Price Index
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Aug
CANADA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Health & Personal Care (1.4)
Recreation, Reading& Education (-3.1)Tobacco Products &Alcoholic Beverages (0.4)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
Consumer Price Index
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200
300
400
500
600
700
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
10/5
CANADIAN DOLLAR & CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX
Canada (C$/US$)
CRB Raw Industrials Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 20.
Canadian Dollar & Commodity Prices
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02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
10/5
CANADA TARGET RATE(percent)
yardeni.com
Source Financial Times and Haver Analytics.
Figure 21.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
10/2
CANADA 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD(percent)
yardeni.com
Source Bank of Canada and Haver Analytics.
Figure 22.
Interest Rates
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83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
9/30
CANADA: INTEREST RATES(weekly, percent)
10-Year Government Bond Yield (0.6)3-month T-Bill Rate (0.1)
Source: Bank of Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 23.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
10/5
CANADA MSCI(Canadian $, December 31, 1969=100)
yardeni.com
Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.
Figure 24.
Interest Rates
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260 JulCANADA REAL MONTHLY GDP BY INDUSTRY(billions of 2012 Canadian dollars, saar)
Real Estate & Rental& Leasing (257.8)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 25.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202265
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
Jul
CANADA REAL MONTHLY GDP BY INDUSTRY(billions of 2012 Canadian dollars, saar)
Finance & Insurance (137.9)Health Care& Social Assistance (131.4)Public Administration (133.0)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
Monthly GDP Service-Providing
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202255
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jul
CANADA REAL MONTHLY GDP BY INDUSTRY(billions of 2012 Canadian dollars, saar)
Wholesale Trade (102.4)Retail Trade (103.4)Education Services (97.9)Scientific & TechnicalServices (113.8)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202215
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Jul
CANADA REAL MONTHLY GDP BY INDUSTRY(billions of 2012 Canadian dollars, saar)
Transportation & Warehousing (69.2)Information & Cultural Industries (62.0)Administration & Waste Management (44.8)Accommodation & Food Services (29.9)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
Monthly GDP Service-Providing
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
Jul
CANADA REAL MONTHLY GDP BY INDUSTRY(billions of 2012 Canadian dollars, saar)
Arts, Entermainment &Recreation (7.4)Management of Companies &Enterprises (8.3)
Source Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
Monthly GDP Service-Providing
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
Jul
CANADA REAL MONTHLY GDP BY INDUSTRY(billions of 2012 Canadian dollars, saar)
Manufacturing (187.2)Mining, and Oil &Gas Extraction (123.6)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202260
80
100
120
140
160
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jul
CANADA REAL MONTHLY GDP BY INDUSTRY(billions of 2012 Canadian dollars, saar)
Construction (140.6)Oil & GasExtraction (97.0)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
Monthly GDP Goods-Producing
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202216
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
Jul
CANADA REAL MONTHLY GDP BY INDUSTRY(billions of 2012 Canadian dollars, saar)
Utilities (44.9)Mining & Quarrying (32.7)(ex gas & oil)Agriculture, Forestry,Fishing & Hunting (42.4)
Source: Statistics Canada and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 32.
Monthly GDP Goods-Producing
Page 22 / October 6, 2020 / Canada www.yardeni.com
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