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American Statistical Association
1993
Proceedings
of the
Social Statistics Section
Papers presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical
Association, San Francisco, California, August 8-12,1993, and the
ASA Winter Conference, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, January 3-5,1993,under the sponsorship of the Social Statistics Section
American Statistical Association 1429 Duke Street, Alexandria, VA 22314
UB/T1B Hannover 89113 195 SOX
Table of Contents
Invited Papers by Topic
I. What Do We Know About the Rich?
Chair/Organizer: Roberton Williams, Congressional Budget Office
The Quality of Census Bureau Survey Data Among Respondents with High Incomes.
Charles T. Nelson, U.S. Bureau of the Census 1
Estimating the Size and Distribution of Baby Boomers' Prospective Inheritances.
Robert B. Avery and Michael S. Rendall, Cornell University 11
Contributed Papers by TopicI. Case Studies in the Methodology of Social Statistics
Chair: Mark Lino, U.S. Department of Agriculture
Unobservable Heterogeneity and Weibull Regression: A Simulation Study. JR. Feaganes,University of North Carolina 20
The Effect of the Number of Response Categories on the Fixed Effects Analysis of Variance
and the Pearson Correlation Coefficient. R. J. Gebotys, Wilfred Laurier University 26
Modeling Demographic Catastrophes. Parameswara Krishnan, University of Alberta 32
II. Microsimulation Modeling of Health Policy Alternatives
Organizer: Constance F. Citro, National Academy of Sciences
Chair: JackRodgers, Price Waterhouse
Microsimulation and Health Care Reform. Pat Doyle, Agency for Health Care Policy andResearch 35
Microsimulation and Health Policy. Michael C. Wolfson, Statistics Canada and Canadian
Institute for Advanced Research 40
Gainers and Losers Under a Tax-Based Health Care Reform Plan. John F. Moeller and
Jonathan W. Witter, Agency for Health Care Policy and Research 48
Modeling the Baseline Distribution of Health Services Spending and Payment.B.K. Atrostic and Linda Bilheimer, Congressional Budget Office 54
III. Immigrants and Migrants within the United States
Chair: Jeffrey S. Passel, The Urban Institute
Residential Segregation of Asians and Hispanics in 1990. Peter Lobo, Universityof Michigan 60
in
Evaluating the Passel-Word Spanish Surname List. R. Colby Perkins, U.S. Bureau
of the Census 65
IV. Research on Teachers, Schools and Education Reform Using the
Schools and Staffing SurveysChair/Organizer: Michael Podgursky, University of Massachusetts
Who Decides? Principals' and Teachers' Views on Decision-Making. Judith I. Anderson,U.S. Department of Education 71
Implicit Markets for Teacher Quality and School Attributes. Dale Ballou and
Michael Podgursky, University of Massachusetts 77
Determinants of Pupil/Teacher Ratios at School Sites: Evidence from the Schools and
Staffing Survey. Lawrence O. Picas and Minaz Bhimani, University of Southern California 82
V. Income, Net Worth, and Jobs: Examining Panel Data
Chair: Edith K. McArthur, National Center for Education Statistics
1986 Tax Reform and Changes in the Distribution and Composition of Income.
Cathleen M. Koch, Joint Committee on Taxation 89
Race and Labor Force Instability. Sheri Hsueh and Marta Tienda, University of Chicago 95
Sources of the Unemployment Differences Between the 1990 Census and the Current
Population Survey (CPS). Thomas Palumbo, U.S. Bureau of the Census 101
Measuring Rates of Labor Force Dynamics. Howard N. Fullerton, Jr., U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics 106
VI. Roundtable Discussion Groups
Multiplying Women in Mathematics: Interventions, Incentives, and Resources. Grace E.
Kissling, University of North Carolina; Susan C. Hostetter, U.S. Congressional Internal
Revenue Service; Kaydion K. Riley, Woodrow Wilson High School 112
Statistical Thinking Can Enhance Cuban Human Rights Assessments. Jorge Luis Romeu,
State College at Cortland 118
VII. Evaluating Population Estimates Using the 1990 Census
Chair: Signe I. Wetrogan, U.S. Bureau of the Census
Evaluation of 1990 Population Estimates and the Future of the Census Bureau
Subnational Estimates Program. Michael J. Batutis, U.S. Bureau of the Census 123
Evaluation of Postcensal County Estimates for the 1980s. Sam T. Davis, U.S. Bureau
of the Census 131
IV
VHI. Educational Attainment: Determinants and ImpactsChair: Daniel Kasprzyk, National Center for Education Statistics
Characteristics of Children Who Are "Behind" in School. Edith K. McArthur,National Center for Education Statistics; Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census 137
Predicting Next Year's Enrollment: Survival Analysis of University Student Enrollment
Histories. Richard M. Heiberger, Temple University 143
Age, Period and Cohort Effects on Educational Attainment: A Comparison of Two
Industrialized Populations. Helena M. Boubnova, Russian Academy of Science;W. WardKingkade, U.S. Bureau of the Census 149
IX. Measuring Health Status: Survey-Based ApproachesChair/Organizer: Michael C. Wolfson, Statistics Canada
Linking Survey and Administrative Data to Study Determinants of Health. Pierre David
and Jean-Marie Berthelot, Statistics Canada; Cameron Mustard, University of Manitoba 155
A Multi-Attribute Approach to Population Health Status. David H. Feeny,George W. Torrance, Charles H. Goldsmith, William Furlong and Michael Boyle,McMaster University 161
The Development of Canada's National Population Health Survey. Gary Catlin and
Robert Lussier, Statistics Canada 167
Health and Functioning Measures from the Health and Retirement Survey.F. Thomas Juster, University of Michigan; Mary Grace Kovar, National Center for
Health Statistics 171
X. Modeling and Projection with Socio-Demographic Data
Chair: Howard N. Fullerton Jr., U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Time Series Modelling Using Auxiliary Information with Application to the Postcensal
Estimation of Households. SusanaR. Bleuer, Statistics Canada 177
Multiple Capture Estimation of Numbers of Homeless. Mary-Lynn Brecht, University of
California, Los Angeles 183
Public Library Service Distribution: An Interstate Expenditure Analysis. Ben-ChiehLiu,
Chicago State University 189
An Apparent Invariance of the Size Distribution of Personal Income Conditioned on
Education. John Angle, Economic Research Service 197
XI. Analyzing Poverty and Welfare Program ParticipationChair: Sharon K. Long, The Urban Institute
A Geographical Analysis of Poverty: 1980 and 1990. Teresa J. Eller, U.S. Bureau
of the Census 203
Race, Class and Poverty Polarization of US Metro Areas and States: Findings from
the 1990 Census. William H. Frey, The University of Michigan 208
Exits From Poverty: A Proportional Hazards Model from the SIPP. Kathleen Short and
Martina Shea, U.S. Bureau of the Census 214
Modeling Food Stamp Participation Reported with Error. Christopher R. Bollinger,
Georgia State; Martin H. David, University of Wisconsin 220
XII. Health and Fertility in Specific Communities: Case Studies
Chair: Reynolds Farley, University of Michigan
Health-Related Attitudes and Behaviors of a Working Class Neighborhood in an Urban
Ohio Community. Yuhui Li, Rowan College of New Jersey; Gopal K. Singh, National
Center for Health Statistics 226
Race and Ethnic Differentials in Infant Health: Hawaii, 1983-87. Paula Gardner and
Gopal K. Singh, National Center for Health Statistics 232
Mother Love Through Mother's Milk: Can it Protect Against Pneumonia? GilbertNestel
and Kara Ricciuti, Ohio State University 238
Sex Preference and Third-Birth Intervals in a Traditional Indian Society. Dilip C. Nath
and Kenneth C. Land, Duke University 244
Pre-United Germany Family Life Cycle and Fertility Profile: 1947 - 88.
M. Nabil El-Khorazaty, Rockville, Maryland 250
XIII. Evaluating Data on Health, Disability, and OccupationChair: Michele C. Adler, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
A New National Source of Health and Mortality Information in the United States.
John W. Horm and Robert A. Wright, National Center for Health Statistics 256
Evaluation of an Automated Multiple Cause of Death Coding System. Kenneth W. Harris,
Harry M. Rosenberg, Kenneth D. Kochanek, Ronald F. Chamblee, and Donna E. Glenn,
National Center for Health Statistics 262
The Reliability of Self-Assessments Versus Clinical Measures of Mental Health. Elizabeth
Savoca, Smith College 266
A Comparative Analysis of Data on Persons with a Work Disability: Data from the
Decennial Census, CPS, and SIPP. Robert L. Bennefield, U.S. Bureau of the Census 272
XIV. Statistical Methods II
Chair: Lewis H. Shoemaker, Millersville University
Quality of Life Indicators (QOL) for Policy Decision Management. Ben-Chieh Liu and
George Foster, Chicago State University; Chang-Tzeh Hsieh, University of Mississippi;Milton W. Liu 277
VI
XV. Methodological Issues in Social Statistics: Modeling Complex Data
and SystemsChair: RobertA. Kominski, U.S. Bureau of the Census
The Strip-Plot Experimental Design and Model. Ellen J. Mohr and John M. Irvine, EREM 284
On Nonlinear Factor Analysis. Yasuo Amemiya, Iowa State University 290
XVI. Crime, Addiction and Substance Abuse: Statistical AnalysesChair: Harry M. Rosenberg, National Center for Health Statistics
White Collar Prosecution -1960 to 1990. Chaiho C. Wang, U.S. Department of Justice 295
A Reconviction Study for Offenders Supervised in the Community.Christopher David Kershaw, Home Office, U.K. 301
Relapse to Narcotics Addiction: An Event-History Analysis of Intervention Effects.
Yih-Ing Hser, University of California, Los Angeles; Kazuo Yamaguchi, Universityof Chicago 306
Risk Factors for Substance Abuse Among the Chronic Mentally 111. A. H. Reed and E. P.
Schoener, Wayne State University; A. M. Walters, University of Michigan 312
Maternal Substance Abuse and Increased Risk of Preterm Birth: Evidence from the 1988
National Maternal and Infant Health Survey. Gopal K. Singh, Stella M. Yu and Harry M.
Rosenberg, National Center for Health Statistics 317
Contributed Papers - Poster Sessions
Can Survey Data Be Used to Estimate Physician Practice Costs? Marc L. Berk and
Curt Mueller, Project HOPE; Sara Thran, American Medical Association 324
Drinking Patterns, Occupation, and Motor Vehicle Accidents Deaths. Hsiang-Ching Kungand Jessica Chan, National Center for Health Statistics 331
Effect of Recall Period on Measuring Poverty and Race Differentials in PhysicianUtilization. Diane M. Makuc and Jacob J. Feldman, National Center for Health
Statistics 337
Decomposition of Changes in Life Expectancy: United States, 1984-89.
Kenneth D. Kochanek, Jeffrey D. Maurer and Harry M. Rosenberg, National Center
for Health Statistics 343
Is that Strawberry Safe to Eat? Terry Tomazic and Barry Katz, Saint Louis University 350
Questions About Race, Spanish Origin and Ancestry: Findings from the Census of 1990
and Proposals for the Census of 2000. Reynolds Farley, The University of Michigan 356
Data Categorization, Noncircularity, and Type I Error Rates in Repeated Measures
ANOVA Designs. Han Joo Eom and Robert W. Schutz, University of British Columbia 362
vu
Preliminary Analysis of Multiple Group Structural Equation Modeling Via Cluster
Analysis. Wai-Yin Poon, Wai Chan, Sik-Yum Lee and Kwok Leung, The Chinese Universityof Hong Kong 368
A Modification of Two Stage Least Squares in Quasi-Experiments. Alex Exuzides and
Raymond C. Peck, California Department of Motor Vehicles 374
Papers Presented at the
1993 ASA Winter Conference
January 3-5,1993Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Invited Papers by Topic
I. Family Income Inequality: Where Has the Middle Class Gone?
Organizer: Patricia Ruggles, The Urban Institute
Chair: Chad Stone, Joint Economic Committee
A Decade of Low Pay: Minimum Wage Workers in the 1980s. Bruce W. Klein, Food
and Nutrition Service; William E. Spriggs, Economic Policy Institute 380
II. Assessing Children's Development and Well-Being in Household
Surveys: New Methods, New FindingsChair/Organizer: Nicholas Zill, Child Trends, Inc.
Parent Reports on Children's Academic Progress and School Adjustment in the National
Household Education Survey. Mary A. Collins and J. Michael Brick, Westat, Inc. 390
Determining Childhood Disability and Special Needs Children in the 1994-95 NHIS
Survey on Disability. Gloria Simpson, National Center for Health Statistics 396
III. Where does the Time Go: Research Issues and FindingsChair/Organizer: Martha Farnsworth Riche, Population Reference
Bureau, Inc.
Trends in Time Spent Caring for Children: 1924-31 vs 1981. W. Keith Bryant, Cornell
University; Cathleen D. Zick, University of Utah 401
Work Schedules and Time with Children. Elizabeth Thomson, University of
Wisconsin-Madison 410
IV. Family Size and Family Needs: An Examination of Equivalence Scales
Organizer: Thesia I. Garner, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chair: Patrica Ruggles, The Urban Institute
The Estimation of Unique Equivalence Scales. David S. Johnson and Thesia I. Garner,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 420
Is There Bias in Computing Household Equivalence Scales? M. Luisa Ferreira, The
World Bank; Reuben C. Buse, University of Wisconsin-Madison 428
VIII
The Role of Equivalence Scales in Canadian Public Policy. Brian B. Murphy andMichael C. Wolfson, Statistics Canada 438
Discussant's Remarks. Denton Vaughan, U.S. Social Security Administration 448
V. Investing in Children: Policy Challenges of the 1990s
Organizer: Stephanie Shipp, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chair: Edward Anthony, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Estimating Expenditures on Children: Methodologies and Implications. Mark Lino, U.S.
Department of Agriculture 451
Intergenerational Determinants of the Education Level of Young Adults: Who Finishes
High School and Who Goes Beyond? Robert Haveman and Barbara Wolfe, University ofWisconsin-Madison 456
VI. How are Children Supported?Organizer: Patricia Ruggles, The Urban Institute
Chair: Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census
America's Children: Resources from Family, Government, and the Economy.Donald J. Hernandez, U.S. Bureau of the Census 466
VII. Does Context Matter? Child Development, Schooling, andMate Selection.
Organizer: Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census
Chair: Larry Bumpass, University of Wisconsin
Do Neighborhoods Influence Child and Adolescent Development? Jeanne Brooks-Gunn
and Pamela Koto Klebanov, Educational Testing Service and Columbia University;
Greg J. Duncan and Naomi Sealand, University of Michigan 475
Marriage Markets and Marital Behavior Among Low-Income Women.
Diane K. McLaughlin and Daniel T. Lichter, The Pennsylvania State University 484
VIII. New Methods for Collecting and Understanding Data
Organizer: Mary Grace Kovar, National Center for Health Statistics
Chair: Randall Olsen, Ohio State University
Observations of New Technology and Family Dynamics in a Survey of Youth. Donald
Camburn, Abt Associates, Inc.; Marcie L. Cynamon, National Center for Health Statistics 494
Estimating the National Prevalence of Child Abuse from Sentinel Data. Andrea J. Sedlak,
Westat, Inc. 503
Systematic Review as an Aid in Policy Research: An Example for the Juvenile
Delinquency Literature. John S. Lyons, Rachel L. Anderson and Julene Stellato,
Northwestern University Medical School; David B. Larson, National Institutes of Health 513
IX
IX. How Are Families and Children Defined in Surveys and Legislation?
Chair/Organizer: Mary Grace Kovar, National Center for Health Statistics
What is a Child? Lorraine V. Klerman, University of Alabama at Birmingham 522
Family Definitions in Programs and Policy. Michele Adler, U.S. Department of Health
and Human Services 528
X. Measuring Educational Output
Organizer: Sharon Bobbin, National Center for Education Statistics
Chair: Greg J. Duncan, University of Michigan
National Education Goals: Are They Sufficient? A View from Industry. Mary Ann Ritter,
General Motors Corporation 538
XI. Measuring Poverty: Needs, Resources, and DynamicsChair/Organizer: Timothy M. Smeeding, Syracuse University
Measurement of Need: The U.S. Poverty Line. Daniel H. Weinberg and Enrique J. Lamas,U.S. Bureau of the Census 542
Some Experimental Results on Alternate Poverty Measures. Daniel H. Weinberg and
Enrique J. Lamas, U.S. Bureau of the Census 549
XII. Confidentiality and Data Access-A Contradiction in Terms?
Organizer: Nancy J. Kirkendall, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Chair: Virginia de Wolf, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
How Government Agencies Simultaneously Protect and Disseminate Data.
Nancy J. Kirkendall, U.S. Energy Information Administration 556
XIII. Children's Learning Experience: Home and School
Organizer: Jerry West, National Center for Education Statistics
Chair: Paul Planchon, National Center for Education Statistics
Learning Programs at Home: An Explanation of the High Academic Achievement of
Asian American Students. Samuel S. Peng and DeeAnn Wright, National Center for
Education Statistics 566
XIV. Alternative Concepts of PovertyChair/Organizer: Constance F. Citro, National Academy of Sciences
Budget-Based Poverty Measurement: 1992 Basic Needs Budgets. Trudi Renwick, Public
Utility Law Project of New York, Inc. 573
XV. International Measurement of Education: Implications for Policies
About Children and Schools
Chair/Organizer: David P. Baker, Catholic University of America
Measuring Student Achievement Around the Globe. William Loxley, International
Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement 583
X
XVI. Assessing Children's Health
Organizer: Mary Grace Kovar, National Center for Health StatisticsChair: Manning Feinleib, National Center for Health Statistics
Use of Health Care Event Data for Examining Children's Health. Catharine W. Burt,National Center for Health Statistics 592
XVII. Housing and Homelessness Among Families with Children
Chair/Organizer: Kathryn P. Nelson, U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development
Housing Problems and Needs Among Families with Children. Kathryn P. Nelson, U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development 598
New Data on Homeless Families: A Review. Martha R. Burt, Lori R. Schack, and
Shannon E. Cavanagh, The Urban Institute 608
XVIII. Caregiving Across the Lifespan: Research Findings and
Methodological Considerations
Chair/Organizer: Robyn Stone, Project Hope
Caregiving Across the Lifespan: A New National Profile. Nadine F. Marks, University ofWisconsin-Madison 614
XIX. Gender Differences in Market Work and the Care and Support of
Families
Organizer: Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census
Chair: Harriet Presser, University of Maryland
Changes in the Labor Force Role of Married Mothers. Howard V. Hayghe, U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics; Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census 623
XX. Methodological, Analysis, and Reporting Issues in the U.S. Data for the
IEA Reading Literacy StudyChair/Organizer: Marilyn Binkley, National Center for Education Statistics
Issues in Sampling for International Comparative Studies in Education: The Case of
the IEA Reading Literacy Study. Keith Rust, Westat, Inc. 627
Handling Item Nonresponse in the U.S. Component of the IEA Reading Literacy Study.Marianne Winglee, Graham Kalton and Keith Rust, Westat, Inc.; Daniel Kasprzyk,National Center for Education Statistics 637
Hierarchical Models: The Case of School Effects on Literacy. Stephen W. Raudenbush,
Michigan State University 646
Contributed Papers By Topic
I. Child Care: Needs, Costs, and Health Surveillance
Chair: Steven L. Solomon, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
XI
Modeling the Cost of Child Care. Arilee M. Bagley and Karl W. Heiner, State Universityof New York at New Paltz 654
Surveillance in Child Day Care: The San Diego and Seattle Projects. Ralph L. Cordell,James E. Cheek, Janice Boose, and Stephen Waterman, U.S. Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention 660
II. Statistical Methods in Biomedical ApplicationsChair: HowardJ. Hoffman, National Institutes of Health
Time from HIV-1 Infection to AIDS Using a Markov Model. Susan Y.J. Zhou,Lawrence A. Kingsley, Sheila S.H. Leung, Eunyoung Choi Lee, and Charles R. Rinaldo,
University of Pittsburgh; Jeremy M.G. Taylor, University of California at Los Angeles;Joan S. Chmiel, Northwestern University; Alfred J. Saah and Donald R. Hoover,The Johns Hopkins University 664
Tests for Equality of Several Proportions and Model Selection for One-Dimensional
Multinomials. Broderick Oluyede, Geogia State University 671
Nonparametric Approach to Risk Assessment of Environmental Agents Involving TwoTypes of Tumors. W. Y. Tan, Memphis State University 677
Prognostic Factors in Intracranial Neoplasms. Jimmy Efird, Francisco Pardo, Dora Hsu,Paul Okunieff, William Daly, and Tessa Hedley-Whyte, Massachusetts General Hospital,Harvard Medical School 683
in. Analyzing Survey Data for Insights into Children's Health
Chair: Owen Thornberry, National Center for Health Statistics
Health Outcomes of Hunger in Children: Combined Results from Nine CCHIP Surveys.Jennifer Anderson, Boston University; Cheryl Wehler, Community Childhood HungerIdentification Project 689
A Socio-Cultural Analysis of the Home Environment. Daniel J. Mundfrom,Robert H. Bradley, and Leanne Whiteside, University of Arkansas at Little Rock 695
IV. Design and Methods in Biometric ApplicationsChair: Earl S. Pollack, George Washington University
On the Accuracy of the Subject Years Method in Mortality Analysis with Censored Data.
Alan J. Gross and Dongsheng Tu, Medical University of South Carolina 701
V. Family Characteristics and Child DevelopmentChair: Harry L. Nagel, St. John's University
Gender Differences in Parent-Child Relationships. Marjorie E. Stands, Universityof Michigan 707
Religious Socialization of Children of Interfaith Couples: The Role of Parents'
Background Differences - A Case Study of Jews Married to Non-Jews. Ariela Keysar,
Egon Mayer, and Barry A. Kosmin, City University of New York 714
XII
An Analysis of the Effect of Mother's Working Status on the Development of Pre-School
Children. Effat Moussa, DePaul University; Mohammed El-Saidi, Ferris State University;Mavis Barkley, Edison School 721
A Markov Model for Mother-Infant Interaction. David C. Flaspohler and
Cynthia L. Crown, Xavier University 727
Significant Others of Young Children. B.A. Bailey and LL. Hoffman, University of
Central Florida; S.K. Streeter, East Montana College 729
VI. Applications of Survival Analysis and Empirical Bayes Procedures to
Large National SurveysChair: Enrique J. Lamas, U.S. Bureau of the Census
Sensitivity ofEstimates for Duration of Welfare Spells in the SIPP. David P. Miller,
Cleveland Clinic Foundation 735
VII. Approaches to Improving Data AnalysisChair: Stephanie Shipp, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Distributions and Transformations for Family Expenditures. Stuart Scott and
Daniel J. Rope, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 741
An Evalutaion of the Effectiveness of a Small Area Census Using Area and TelephoneFrames. Charles D. Palit and Jane A. Campbell, University of Wisconsin 747
Vffl. The Changing Face of the FamilyChair: Suzanne M. Bianchi, U.S. Bureau of the Census
Divorcing Parents. Barbara Foley Wilson, National Center for Health Statistics 752
When Disagreements Lead to Violence in Marriage. AlfredDeMaris, Bowling Green
State University 756
International Comparisons of the Family. Constance Sorrentino, U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics 761
Determinants of Women's Return to Paid Work After Childbirth. Jutta M. Joesch,
University of Utah 767
IX. Analysis of Family-Level Data in a National Panel Survey, the 1987
National Medical Expenditure SurveyChair: Steven B. Cohen, U.S. Agency for Health Care Policy and Research
Family Constructs and Dynamics: The Survey of American Indians and Alaska Natives,
NMES, 1987. Ayah E. Johnson and Barbara Lepidus Carlson, U.S. Agency for Health
Care Policy and Research 773
Discussion of Session on Analysis of Family Level Data in a National Panel Survey:
The 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey. Steven B. Cohen, U.S. Agency for
Health Care Policy and Research 779
XM
X. Determinants of Education Performance
Chair: Yahia Z. Ahmed, U.S. Internal Revenue Service
The Positive/Negative Effect of the Family Size on High School Performance.
Harry L. Nagel, St. John's University 783
The Effect of Age, Sex, Socioeconomic Status, and Kindergarten Screening Scores on
Reading Achievement. Jane M. Flynn, Gundersen Medical Foundation;Mohammad H. Rahbar, University of Wisconsin-LaCrosse 785
XI. New Developments in Statistical Methods
Chair: Charles D. Palit, University of Wisconsin
An Extension of the Vital Statistics Method to Derive Survival Rates. Balkrishna Kale
and John Besl, Wisconsin Department of Administration; Charles Palit and Paul Voss,
University of Wisconsin-Madison; Frederick Krantz and Henry Krebs, Wisconsin
Department of Health and Social Services 791
On an Intergrated Selection Approach for Comparing Experimental Categories with a
Control. Lifang Hsu, Le Moyne College 797
A Bayesian Analog to Fabian's Bound. Ping Sa, University of North Florida;Don Edwards, University of South Carolina 801
Bayesian Analysis of Bilinear Time Series. Cathy W.S. Chen, Feng-Chia University 807
XII. Research into Programs for Families and Children: Issues and
FindingsChair: Roberta McKay, U.S. Department of Labor
Multicollinearity in Family Research: Childrearing Families Affected by Poverty and
Disability. Bette Keltner and Michael Hardin, University of Alabama at Birmingham 811
Initial Outcomes of Intensive Case Managment for Children with Serious Emotional
Disturbance. Steven M. Banks and Mary E. Evans, New York State Office of Mental
Health 816
Child Support Collection Goals. Karl W. Heiner, State University ofNew York at New
Paltz 821
Xin. Work and the Family: Income, Hours, and SpendingChair: Howard V. Hayghe, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
A Look at Private Health Insurance Coverage of Families with Children under 18 UsingData from the Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey for 1989-91. Elizabeth M. Reise,U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 827
Predicting Family Work Hours with Neural Networks. David M. Brennan and
Lawrence C. Marsh, University of Notre Dame 833
xiv
XIV. Questionnaire Protocols, Respondent Differences, and the Effects of
Sample Design on Estimates
Chair: Clyde Tucker, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Estimating the Effect of Alcohol Use on Productivity. R. R. Bryant and
V.A. Samaranayake, University of Missouri-Rolla; A.W. Wilhite, University of Alabama 839
XV. Collecting and Modeling Data on Children
Chair: Jeffrey S. Passel, The Urban Institute
A National Study of Runaway and Homeless Youth. Ronaldo lachan and Chris Ringwalt,Research Triangle Institute 845
Using Statistical Models to Estimate the Size of a Homeless Population. Neil W. Henry,Virginia Commonwealth University 850
Stages of Consumer Socialization in Childhood. James U. McNeal, Texas A&M
University; Chyon-Hwa Yeh, The Procter & Gamble Company 856
Contributed Papers-Poster Sessions
Sarcoidosis: Data to Unravel the Mystery. S. Conroy, National Sarcoidosis Resource
Center, DR. Bristol, Schering-Plough Research Institute 861
Linking the Robert Wood Johnson Access Survey with the National Health Interview
Survey. Marc L. Berk, Project HOPE; P. Ellen Parsons, National Center for Health
Statistics 867
Biasing Effects in Ratings Scales: Differences Between Putative Synonyms for
Occupations. Simcha Pollack, St. John's University; Hershey H. Friedman, Brooklyn
College of the City University of New York 872
Index 875
XV