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Argus Marine Fuels OutlookYour key source of forecasts and insights on marine fuels in preparing for IMO 2020.

Argus Marine Fuels Outlook is a quarterly service, which provides news and insight, fundamentals and price forecasts on marine fuels two years ahead.

Argus’ global network provides excellent coverage of all the latest developments as the market responds to IMO 2020. Updates on scrubber investments, refining announcements, enforcement procedures and port plans are processed by the consulting team, using a range of proprietary tools, to deliver actionable insights and analysis.

Quarterly price forecasts and crack spreads covering marine fuels in the key bunkering hubs.Including our forecast of 0.5pc sulphur fuel oil and 0.5pc sulphur MGO prices from Q1 2020.

Price forecasts

The service

Houston: HS380cst 0.1pc S MGO 0.5pc S MGO 0.5pc S FO

Rotterdam: HS380cst 0.1pc S MGO 0.1pc FO 0.5pc S MGO 0.5pc S FO

Fujairah: HS380cst 0.1pc S MGO 0.5pc S MGO 0.5pc S FO

Singapore: HS380cst 0.1pc S MGO 0.5pc S MGO 0.5pc S FO

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“The proposed change would tie monthly indexes closely to spot trading and would use the average of the prior month’s weekly price assessments as its basis

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Swaps and forwardsGet an independent view of forward prices for marine fuels and other products, which provide an indicator for how the market anticipates prices will react to the low sulphur bunker switch.

USn Residual Fuel Oil 3% swapn ULS Heating Oil NY Harbour forward

Europen Gasoil futuresn HS Fuel Oil Cargo swap n HS Fuel Oil Barge Swap

Asian HS 380 cst Fuel Oil swap n Gasoil 0.50% Singapore

Get the latest news and data on vessel scrubber installations. Using Argus’ in-house scrubber database to keep track of installations, we are able provide quality insight on how these installations will impact bunker demand over the forecast period.

Scrubbers

14

173

129

125

45

35

361

310

Tanker

Bulk carrier

Bulk carrier or tanker (unspeci�ed)

Cruiseship

Containership

RoRo/Ferry

Gas carrier

Car carrier

Multipurpose

Reefer/Fishing

Heavy li�

Dredger

n/a*

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375

Source: Source: Argus’ proprietary marine fuel scrubber database, available to Argus Marine Fuels subscribers* type of vessel not speci�ed by the scrubber manufacturer

Already Installed 2018-2019 2020-2022 2023-2024

1

4

4

18

Option to Install, year not speci�ed

43

Global vessel scrubber installations (as of 26 September, 2018)

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The introduction of a 0.5pc sulphur limit on bunker fuel will shift a huge volume of demand Updated twice a year, we will present our outlook for demand for each of the key fuel grades by region with supporting analysis.

Marine fuel demand

The size of the problem

2020 HSFO

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Dem

and

by fu

el g

rade

, mn

t

0

20

200

New Scrubbing Non-Compliance 0.5pc FO To MGO

Fuelsn High sulphur fuel oiln Low sulphur fuel oiln Marine gasoil

Regionsn Americasn Europen Asia Pacificn Rest of the world

Refining outlook Latest news and analysis on refining developments in preparation for the low sulphur cap. What type of compliant fuel will refiners produce and by when?

Refining capacitiesUpdated twice a year we will present the latest refining capacity data globally. This will include capacities for the primary units capable of producing low sulphur bunker fuels.

n CDUn FCCn Cokingn VGO hydrotreatingn Residue hydrotreating

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ImplementationIn the lead up to January 2020 and beyond, we will discuss the implementation and enforcement of the sulphur cap.

CompatibilityWhat issues are the market facing in terms of fuel compatibility? There are still a number of unknowns regarding the new low sulphur fuels. We will keep you updated on these developments and how they affect you.

News and analysis

Alternative fuelsLPG, LNG, Methanol and others. There are a number of alternative fuels, which we expect will grow in importance as the infrastructure in expanded. This section will provide news updates on these developments and how they fit within the larger bunker fuels picture.

Port preparationsA major concern of shipowners is fuel availability post 2020. We track port announcements on which fuels they will provide and what preparations they are making ahead of the switch.

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To find out more about more about Argus Marine Fuels Outlook and Argus Consulting Services,please contact us at e: info@argusmedia.com t: + 44 (0) 20 7780 4200

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Crude trends The introduction of the sulphur cap will have a significant impact on crude prices. The sulphur content of a crude is expected to become an even more important determinant of price. In this section we will analyse key trends in crude prices over the last quarter and present our outlook for prices over the next two years with a focus on sweet sour differentials.

Crude forecastsn North Sea Datedn Urals NWEn Dubain ESPO Blendn LLSn Marsn Maya

Differentialsn Urals NWE v North Sea Datan Dubai v ESPO Blendn Mars v LLSn Maya v LLS