around the world in eight maps - euler hermes outlook no.1224-1225 spring 2016 special atlas around...

Economic Outlookno.1224-1225Spring 2016

Special Atlaswww.eulerhermes.com

Around the Worldin eight maps

Economic Research

Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas Euler Hermes

2

Economic ResearchEuler Hermes Group

Economic Outlookno. 1224-1225Special Atlas

Contents

The Economic Outlook is a monthlypublication released by the EconomicResearch Department of Euler HermesGroup. This publication is for the clientsof Euler Hermes Group and available onsubscription for other businesses andorganizations. Reproduction is authorised,so long as mention of source is made.Contact the Economic Research Depart-ment Publication Director and Chief Eco-nomist: Ludovic Subran Macroeconomic Research and CountryRisk: Andrew Atkinson, Ana Boata,Stéphane Colliac, Mahamoud Islam, DanNorth, Daniela Ordóñez, Manfred Stamer(Country Economists)Sector and Insolvency Research:Maxime Lemerle (Head), Farah Allouche,Yann Lacroix, Marc Livinec, Didier Moizo(Sector Advisors)Support: Laetitia Giordanella (OfficeManager) Ilan Goren (Content Manager),Sara Abaid, Thomas Cardiel, SabrinaDelsert, Irène Herlea, Benedetta Scotti(Research Assistants) Editor: Martine BenhadjGraphic Design: Claire Mabille Photo credits: Image Photodisc “Thedesigner Tools”, Maps and NavigationDT03015, Image courtesy of Nicole Klesy,pixabay.com. Under CC0 Public DomainFor further information, contact the Eco-nomic Research Department of EulerHermes Group at 1, place des Saisons92048 Paris La Défense Cedex – Tel.:+33 (0) 1 84 11 50 46 – e-mail: [email protected] > Euler Her-mes Group is a limited company with aDirectoire and Supervisory Board, with acapital of EUR 14 509 497, RCS Nanterre552 040 594 Photoengraving: Talesca Imprimeur deTalents – Permit March-April 2016; issn1 162–2 881 ◾ June 30, 2016

16 SECTOR RISK OUTLOOKTOP-FLOP sectors as of mid 2016

18 COUNTRY RISK OUTLOOK13 changes in country risk ratings since the beginning of 2016

20 OUR PUBLICATIONS

22 SUBSIDIARIES

3 EDITORIAL

4 GDP FORECASTGlobal growth to decelerate in 2016 to its lowest level since the great recession

6 GLOBAL TRADEGlobal Trade to increase in volume in 2016but decrease in value terms

8 CORPORATES' CASH PILEGlobal cash increases in value terms butremains stable when compared to totalassets

10 DAYS SALES OUTSTANDING Global Days Sales Outstanding to remainstable at 64 days in 2016, but 1 out of 4 companies are paid after 90 days

12 BUSINESS INSOLVENCY OUTLOOK Global Insolvencies to increase in 2016 for the first time since 2009

14 INTERNATIONAL DEBT COLLECTIONA three-step road to complexity: Paymentpractices, legal action and insolvency

Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas

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EDITORIAL

Atlas shrugged LUDOVIC SUBRAN

I am not going to do a book review of Ayn Rand’s all-timebest seller. Atlas Shrugged, if you have not read it, depicts adystopian United States, wherein many of society's mostprominent and successful industrialists abandon their for-tunes and the nation itself, in response to aggressive newregulations, whereupon most vital industries collapse. Ringa bell? Any resemblance with existing or past situations istotally coincidental. I will not tell you either about AroundThe World in Eighty Days, a classic adventure novel by theFrench writer Jules Verne in which Phileas Fogg of Londonand his newly employed French valet Passepartout attemptto circumnavigate the world in 80 days. Yet, you can’t ignorethis famous quote: “A true Englishman doesn't joke whenhe is talking about so serious a thing as a wager”. This again,does ring a bell. What on earth happened for Atlas, the giantwho holds the world on his shoulders, to decide to shakethings up like this? One can project many fantasies (and con-spiracy theories) on who nowadays Atlas may be: money,politics, global governance and so forth. In the end whatseems like the new normal is a very turbulent world. Somemay say it is because we get the information a swipe of afinger away and suffer from infobesity, others may believewe actually are on the verge of a revolution or a series ofrevolutions. Globalization and Fordism are questioned to

their core, often in a populist way, yet making them work orreinventing them to ensure inclusiveness, will shape theglobal economic and political agenda for years to come. Tounderstand the world in its complexity, it is important to vi-sualize it. Thomas Friedman would be happy since usingmaps automatically makes the world flat – though we knowsince Galileo it is not (for those who had a doubt). In thisspecial edition of our economic outlook, we decided to draweight maps to understand why so much volatility and whatthe impact on businesses can be. From growth and trade topayment delays and collection practices, we will take you ona trip around the world. One word of caution though: mapsare a great representation but even if borders do not changethat often anymore, the country and sector risks are con-stantly changing. So if you feel that this snapshot may beoutdated or want to see how recent data affect some of theforecasts in this report, you can find a brand new interactiveatlas on the dedicated Euler:Hermes website. Remember:“Anything one man can imagine, other men can make real.”Jules Verne, Around the World in Eighty Days

Image courtesy of Nicole Klesy, pixabay.com. Under CC0 Public Domain


4

ARUBA

C

68%of globalGDP todeceleratein 2016f:

GDP forecastOutlook

2016

Real GDP growth, annual change, %

Weight* 2014 2015 2016f

GLOBAL GDP 100 2.7 2.6 2.4

United States 22 2.4 2.4 1.9

Brazil 3 0.1 -3.9 -3.5United Kingdom 4 2.9 2.3 1.3Eurozone 17 1.0 1.6 1.6Germany 5 1.6 1.4 1.7France 4 0.7 1.2 1.5Italy 3 -0.3 0.6 1.0Spain 2 1.4 3.2 2.6The Netherlands 1 1.0 2.0 1.4Portugal 0 0.9 1.5 1.3Greece 0 0.7 -0.4 -1.0Central and Eastern Europe 6 1.4 -0.1 1.2Russia 3 0.7 -3.7 -0.9Turkey 1 3.0 4.0 3.6Asia 29 4.8 4.9 4.6China 13 7.3 6.9 6.5Japan 6 -0.1 0.6 0.7India 2 7.2 7.6 7.6Middle East 4 2.6 2.6 2.1Saudi Arabia 1 3.6 3.4 1.5Africa 3 3.5 2.9 2.5South Africa 0 1.5 1.3 0.5

* Weights in global GDP at market prices, 2014

Sources: National sources, IMF, IHS, Euler Hermes forecasts


5

KIRIBATI

A

COTED’IVOIRE

Global growth to decelerate in 2016 to itslowest level since the great recession

6

-430 USD bnLoss of value expectedin 2016

GlobalTradeOutlook

2016

13 14 15 16f 17f

+3.4%

1.8%

-10.4%

-2.0%

5.7%

Volume Price Value

+3.6% +3.0%+2.2%

+3.0%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

Global trade growth(annual change, %)

Sources: IHS, Euler Hermes

Global Trade to increase in volumein 2016 but decreasein value terms


7



8

Companies heldUSD 7trn cashat the start of 2016(i.e.15% of total assetson average)

Corporates’cash pileOutlook

2016

Global cash increases in valueterms but remains stable whencompared to total assets

Electronics

Metal Agrifood

Transportation Energy

Other services

Automotive

Pharmaceuticals

Telecom Aeronautics

Householdgoods

Construction

Chemicals

Business services

Utilities

Machinery

Retail

Technology

Personalgoods

9% 90 900

Cash

/ Tot

al a

sset

s

Value of cash (USD bn)

35%

25%

15%

Cash pile by sector in 2015

Sources: Bloomberg, Euler Hermes

9



10

Average DSOin China in 2016f:

92 days(+20 days comparedto 2010)

Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)Outlook

2016

Global DSO to remain stable at 64 days in2016, but 1 out of 4companies are paid after 90 days

38

62 62

70 68 75

72 75 77

81 79 83

90 86 85

95 96

107 113 114 115

27

46 46 47 51

54 55 56 58 59 59 63 64

67 68 70 77 79 81

87 89

5

21 23

13

27 21

31 30 25

32 35

38 31

39 44 42

49 46

40

52 55

Re

tail

Tran

spor

tatio

n Ag

rifoo

d Ot

her s

ervic

es

Tele

com

M

etal

Ut

ilitie

s Pe

rson

al g

oods

En

ergy

Hous

ehol

d go

ods

Pape

r Bu

sines

s ser

vices

W

orld

ave

rage

Ae

rona

utics

Au

tom

otive

Ch

emica

ls

Tech

nolo

gy

Phar

mac

eutic

als

Co

nstru

ctio

n M

achi

nery

Elec

troni

cs

DSO level and dispersion by sector in 2015 (number of days)

Sources: Bloomberg, Euler Hermes

11



12

GlobalinsolvencyindexChange in 2016f:

+1%

BusinessInsolvencyOutlook

2016

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16f

forecasts

+4%

North America Index

Asia-Pacific Index

Africa & Middle East Index

Central & Eastern Europe Index

Western Europe Index

Latin America Index

Global Insolvency Index

+7%

+22% +23%

-6%

-15%

-5% -1% -2%

+14%

-6%

+1%

Euler Hermes Global Insolvency Index and regional indicesYearly level basis 100 = 2000

Sources: National figures, Euler Hermes forecasts


13

Global Insolvencies to increase in 2016for the first time since 2009


14

International debt collectionOutlook

2016

0 20 40 60 80 100

Insolvency-related complexity

Court-related complexity

Payment-related complexitySwedenGermany

AustriaSwitzerland

SpainBelgium

NetherlandsNew Zealand

IrelandFinlandNorwayFrance

UKPortugal

JapanGreece

DenmarkRomania

CanadaHong_Kong

SingaporeAustralia

IsraelChileUSA

TurkeyItaly

PolandHungary

BrazilCzech Republic

IndiaMorocco

ColombiaThailand

ArgentinaSlovak_Republic

MexicoIndonesia

MalaysiaChinaRussia

UAESaudi Arabia

Collection complexity Overall complexity score, O=least complex, 100= most complex

Source: Euler Hermes


15

22 out of 44 countrieswith Severe or Very high levelof collection complexity

A three-step road to complexity: Paymentpractices, legal action and insolvency proceedings


16

SectorriskOutlook

2016

-15 -10 -5 0 5Number of net upgrades (=upgrades-downgrades)

Low

risk

High

RiskMetal

EnergyMachinery& Equipment

Textile

ConstructionPaper

TransportationComputer& Telecom

Retail

Chemicals

Car component

IT Services

Electronics

Householdequipment

Aeronautics

Agrifood

Automotive

Pharmaceutical

Sector risk changes in 2016 (x-axis) and risk level (y-axis)as of end of Q2 2016

Sources: National figures, Euler Hermes forecasts

126 changesin sector risk ratings since the

beginning of 2016 (34 upgrades

92 downgrades)


17

TOP-FLOP sectors as of mid-2016

Romania

Greece


18

CountryriskOutlook

2016

Key political events to look for in 2016-2017

Source : Euler Hermes

7countries with

upgradedratings

k 2016

September 11 Croatia Parliamentary election September 18 Russia Parliamentary election October 2 Hungary Referendum on Hungarian sovereignty over immigration policy* October 2 Austria Presidential election (2nd round revoting) October Morocco Parliamentary election October-November Italy Constitutional Referendum November 8 United States Presidential / House of Representatives / Senate elections

2017

February Ecuador Parliamentary election Before March 15 The Netherlands Parliamentary election Avril 23/May 7 France Presidential election (two rounds) June 11/18 France Parliamentary election (two rounds) August Kenya Parliamentary & Presidential elections June Iran Presidential election August-October Germany Parliamentary election Argentina Parliamentary election November 19 Chile Parliamentary & Presidential elections


19

13 changes in country risk ratingssince the beginning of 2016

6countries withdowngradedratings

l


20

Economic ResearchEuler Hermes Group

Economic Outlookand otherpublications

Already issued:

no. 1207 ◽ Business Insolvency Worldwide Insolvency World Cup 2014: Who will score fewer insolvencies?

no. 1208-1209 ◽ Macroeconomic, Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook Growth: A giant with feet of clay

no. 1210 ◽ Special Report The global automotive market: Back on four wheels

no. 1211-1212 ◽ Business Insolvency Worldwide A rotten apple can spoil the barrel Payment terms, past dues, non-payments and insolvencies: What to expect in 2015?

no. 1213 ◽ Special Report International debt collection:The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

no. 1214 ◽ Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook Overview 2015: Not such a Grimm tale but no fabled happy ending

no. 1215 ◽ Special Report Global trade: What’s cooking? Introducing twelve countries’ recipes for boosting exports no. 1216 ◽ Macroeconomic, Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook Focus on the signal and ignore the noise

no. 1217-1218 ◽ Macroeconomic, Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook Riding into risks or recovery? no. 1219 ◽ Special Report Auto market - a live wire

no. 1220-1221 ◽ Business Insolvency Worldwide The insolvency U-turn

no. 1222 ◽ Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook The 7 dwarfs of global growth

no. 1223 ◽ Global Sector Outlook Let the Sector games begin

no. 1224-1225 ◽ Special Atlas Around the World in eight maps

To come:

no. 1226- 1227 ◽ Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook no. 1228-1229 ◽ Special Report

Global Sector Outlook

Economic Outlookno.1223 February 2016

www.eulerhermes.com

Let the Sectorgames beginCompanies are having an early startat their own Olympics

Economic Research

Macroeconomicand Country Risk Outlook

EconomicOutlook no. 1222January 2016

www.eulerhermes.com

The 7 dwarfsof global growth

Economic Research

Economic Outlookno.1219 July-August 2015

Special Reportwww.eulerhermes.com

Auto market - a live wire

Economic Research

Business Insolvency Worldwide

Economic Outlookno. 1220-1221September-October 2015

www.eulerhermes.com

The insolvencyU-turn

Economic Research


21

http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/country-risks/Pages/country-reports-risk-map.aspx

http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/economic-publications/Pages/economic-insights.aspx

: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31PQJI7riyA

CountryReport

◽Aeronautics ◽Agrifood ◽Automotive ◽Chemicals◽Construction ◽Energy ◽Household Equipment ◽Information & Communication

Technologies

◽Machinery & Equipment ◽Metal ◽Paper ◽Pharmaceuticals ◽Retail ◽Textile ◽Transportation

IndustryReport

GlobalSectorReport

http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/economic-publica-tions/Pages/Weekly-Export-Risk-Outlook.aspxN

NN

N

EconomicInsight

◽Worldwide DSO: Paying the penalty for low growth >July 2016◽Brexit: What does it mean for Europe and the world? >May 2016◽Brazil did not need more drama right now >May 2016◽Insolvencies are back: Keep an eye on the domino effect >April 2016◽Why is global growth a FLOP(s)? >April 2016◽Switzerland: Modest export restart in 2016 while survey signals further

growing export risks >April 2016◽Oil prices: Time for (nasty) second-round effects? >March 2016◽Payment Behavior Index (PBI) shows deteriorating conditions >February 2016◽China: MONKEY forces for the Year of the Monkey >February 2016◽Brexit me if you can: Companies to suffer the most >February 2016

◽United Kingdom◽Finland (upgrade)◽Romania (upgrade)◽Serbia (upgrade) ◽Bulgaria◽Burkina Faso ◽China ◽Congo DR ◽Costa Rica ◽Cote d’Ivoire

◽Czech Republic ◽Germany ◽Hungary ◽Japan ◽Kuwait ◽Morocco ◽New Zealand ◽Nigeria ◽Peru ◽Portugal

◽Senegal ◽Slovak Republic ◽South Korea ◽Tanzania ◽UAE◽Uruguay ◽United States◽Vietnam

http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/sector-riskshttp://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/sector-risks

WeeklyExport RiskOutlook

TheEconomicTalk

June 2016 updates

NN

◽US Oil >February 2016◽US Retail >January 2016◽US Household equipment >February 2016◽France agrifood >November 2015◽US agrifood >November 2015◽Germany agrifood >October 2015◽Construction in Germany >October 2015◽US Auto Industry Outlook >September 2015◽US Steel Industry Outlook >July 2015

February 2016





http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/economic-publications/Pages/Weekly-Export-Risk-Outlook.aspx

http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/sector-risks

http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/sector-risks


22

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Euler Hermes Economic Outlookis published monthly by the Economic Research Departmentof Euler Hermes Group1, place des Saisons, F-92048 Paris La Défense Cedex e-mail: [email protected] - Tel. : +33 (0) 1 84 11 50 50

This document reflects the opinion of the Economic Research Department of Euler Hermes Group.

The information, analyses and forecasts contained herein are based on the Department's current

hypotheses and viewpoints and are of a prospective nature. In this regard, the Economic Research

Department of Euler Hermes Group has no responsibility for the consequences hereof and no

liability. Moreover, these analyses are subject to modification at any time.

www.eulerhermes.com

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