around the world presentation global sales and...
TRANSCRIPT
ihs.com
© 2017 IHS
Presentation
28 March 2017
Colin Couchman
Peter Nagle
Sarah Kingsbury
Mike Jackson
Roberto Barros
Around the World
Global Sales and Production Forecast
Europe and the Americas
IHS AUTOMOTIVE
© 2017 IHS
Next Global Sales and Production WebcastTuesday, 25 April 2017
Around the World / March 2017
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© 2017 IHS
Next Global Sales and Production WebcastTuesday, 25 April 2017
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Around the World / March 2017
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© 2017 IHS
Questions and answers
4
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
Contents
Macroeconomic outlook
Global sales and production outlook
Europe outlook
North America outlook
The rest of the world
Questions and answers
5
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
-6.00
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World UnitedStates
Japan Eurozone Brazil Russia India China UnitedKingdom
2016 2017 2018 Avg. 2019–24
World economic growth rates
Source: IHS © 2017 IHS
Avg. growth of 2.9%
Global growth is expected to rise in 2017 as the US
economy strengthens and Brazil/Russia start to recover
6
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
China Japan Russia UnitedStates
Brazil Eurozone UnitedKingdom
World unemployment rates
Source: IHS © 2017 IHS
Employment remains relatively strong, improving
consumer spending in many markets
7
January
2017
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
China India Japan Russia Brazil Eurozone UnitedKingdom
Currency vs US dollar (indexed to January 2013)
Source: IHS © 2017 IHS
Strong dollar is now weakening—Exchange rates are
coming down from recent lows
8
February 2017
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
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UnitedStates
Russia Japan India UnitedKingdom
Eurozone China Brazil
World industrial production (three-month average)
Source: IHS © 2017 IHS
Manufacturing remains muted around the world as
weakness in many markets limits demand
9
January
2017
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
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Brazil China Eurozone India Japan Russia UnitedStates
UnitedKingdom
World inflation rates
Source: IHS © 2017 IHS
Inflationary pressures are easing in emerging markets,
rising in developed markets
10
January 2017
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
The House Republicans’ plan for US corporate tax
reform: A border-adjusted cash-flow tax
• The principal goal of US corporate tax reform is a reduction in the
federal corporate tax rate from 35% to 20% or lower.
• The House Republicans’ plan would transform the corporate income
tax into a destination-based cash-flow tax that exempts the full value of
exports but includes the full value of imports in the tax base.
• This is essentially a tax on domestic consumption. It differs from a
value-added tax (VAT) by allowing a deduction for domestic wages and
salaries—resulting in a smaller tax base.
• Border adjustment (BAT) would raise tax revenues (about USD100
billion per year), helping to finance a reduction in the corporate tax rate.
• A major uncertainty is the extent to which the dollar would appreciate to
offset the price effects from border adjustment.
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
Pros and cons of a border-adjusted cash-flow tax
Arguments in favor
• Taxes domestic consumption
• Neutrality regarding location of
production
• Removes incentive to shift profits
or activities outside the United
States
• Currency appreciation would offset
price effects
• Raises tax revenue since US
imports exceed US exports
Arguments against
• Tax burden falls on consumers if
exchange rates do not adjust
• Low-income households hit hardest
by rise in import prices
• Disruption of supply chains
• Dollar appreciation changes asset
and liability values
• May violate World Trade
Organization rules, which allow
border adjustment for indirect taxes,
not direct taxes
12
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
Implications of BAT—Who pays for it?
Around the World / March 2017
Current ATPs around USD31,500; 20% BAT to add USD6,300 to imported vehicle
costs
55.8%
11.4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
United States Canada Japan Mexico Germany South Korea RoW
US sales by production country
Source: IHS © 2017 IHS
© 2017 IHS
HVAC
• 9% of cost
• 39% import content
Electrical
• 14% of cost
• 56% import content
Powertrain
• 22% of cost
• 45% import content
Seating
• 13.8% of cost
• 18% import content
Chassis
• 22% of cost
• 32% import content
Implications of BAT—Who pays for it?
BAT impact on vehicle cost
2016 Pre-BAT Post-BAT Increase
ATP USD31,534 USD31,534
TC USD19,138 USD22,037 15.1%
Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS Markit
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
Contents
Macroeconomic outlook
Global sales and production outlook
Europe outlook
North America outlook
The rest of the world
Questions and answers
15
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
Global sales
16
Around the World / March 2017
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0.0
20.0
40.0
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100.0
120.0
2014 2015 2016 February 2017 YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
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Global Change
• For February 2017, global auto sales posted 6.76 million units—up 6.4%—as moderating demand in the United States combined
with a decent month for China. Chinese demand came back following January’s distortions to working days from the Chinese New
Year holiday. For the United States, we can highlight reduced OEM “push” and believe the market is experiencing a pre-Trump-
stimulus pause for breath. Europe, the third big sales region, had a slow month (up 0.2%) with one less working day. We maintain
Europe should continue to prosper from an ongoing release of pent-up demand, with a possible upside for some key markets.
• Total 2017 global auto growth is set at 1.8%, to 93.8 million units, a mild upgrade. Chinese-targeted auto excise duty incentives
are to continue through 2017, albeit at a lower rate of 7.5% for qualifying vehicles (up from 5% for 2016). Our 2017 China forecast
is set at 28 million units (up 1.7%). However, in 2018, when we assume a complete removal of the tax cut, the market is expected
to drop 0.8% without any incentives to prop it up. For 2017, we have set US sales at 17.4 million units, a slight moderation on
2016 levels (down 0.8%). The US market should return to growth for 2018 as the new Trump administration’s policies become
clearer (up 0.9%).
© 2017 IHS
Global light vehicle sales outlook2016–17 volume
Around the World / March 2017
17
92.2
93.8
+ 0.5
+ 0.5
+ 0.2
+ 0.2
+ 0.1
+ 0.1
+ 0.1 - 0.1
92.1
92.3
92.5
92.7
92.9
93.1
93.3
93.5
93.7
93.9
2016 Greater China South Asia MiddleEast/Africa
West Europe Central/EastEurope
South America Japan/Korea North America 2017
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
+1.8%
© 2017 IHS
Global production
• Global production is estimated to have reached 7.43 million units in February 2017, a 4.1% year-on-year (y/y) increase. After two
months of the year, the year-to-date (YTD) comparison stands at 15.04 million units, or 3.3% above the same period in 2016. Full-
year 2016 is now estimated to have seen output levels reach 93.11 million units, 4.9% up on 2015 levels. The strong finish to 2016
reflects the surge in activity in China, especially in the final quarter.
• The full-year 2017 outlook is held effectively flat against January’s forecast and would represent growth of 1.8% to 94.81 million
units. Partial restoration of China's consumption tax, raised to 7.5%, policy forming from the Donald Trump administration, and
Indian demonetization will all shape the 2017 outlook alongside the emerging impacts of Brexit.
18
Around the World / March 2017
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0.0
20.0
40.0
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120.0
2014 2015 2016 February 2017 YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
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Global Change
© 2017 IHS
Global light vehicle productionForecast variance, calendar year 2017
Around the World / March 2017
-84,303
-17,754
-12,597
-5,255
20,103
51,506
89,180
40,880
-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000
South America
Middle East/Africa
North America
Greater China
South Asia
Europe
Japan/Korea
Global
Production variance (March 2017 vs. February 2017 forecast)
© 2017 IHSSource: IHS
19
© 2017 IHS
Contents
Macroeconomic outlook
Global sales and production outlook
Europe outlook
North America outlook
The rest of the world
Questions and answers
20
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
Europe sales outlook
21
Around the World / March 2017
• In February 2017, European sales increased 0.2% y/y to 1.42 million units. Western and Central European sales
posted a flat result with slight growth at 0.9% y/y. On the other hand, Eastern European volumes decreased again only
slightly after an improved January result, losing an estimated 4.7%, driven mainly by Turkey (down 11.2%) and Russia
(down 5.1%). The strong losses in Turkey and Russia compensated a bit for the 45.2% growth in Ukraine, which
brought the YTD performance down to 4.2%.
• On its current momentum, the market should stay on track, since it is just now starting to show signs of deceleration
(directly attributed to Brexit in October). The picture is less optimistic for the near future, notably 2017 and 2018 (during
which the exit should be negotiated between the involved parties). Of course, for the medium term, we maintain lower
expectations compared with our pre-Brexit views, but we also acknowledge that a lot of decisive parameters are
largely unknown as of today.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
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5.0
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25.0
2014 2015 2016 February 2017 YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
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West Europe East Europe Central Europe Change
© 2017 IHS
Germany and France sales outlook • German car sales decreased 2.5% y/y in February
2017 to 262,379 units. The small decline was the
result of one fewer working day compared with
February 2016, which was a leap year. IHS currently
forecasts stable development for 2017 as long as the
country's robust macro fundamentals remain in place,
with some key new model launches encouraging
private buying activity. In the longer run, we maintain
a cautious outlook. Despite a fundamentally sound
basis, the German economy and its auto industry
might suffer from a less supportive environment:
more restrained global demand, the migrant crisis,
Brexit developments, and, maybe even now, Donald
Trump’s election in the United States.
• The French light vehicle market fell during February.
Combined registrations of passenger cars and light
commercial vehicles (LCVs) up to 6.0 tons slid 2.0%
y/y to 195,920 units. The decline partly reflects the
month having one fewer working day than in 2016.
Taking this difference into account—20 days versus
21 days—the market improved 3.2% y/y. As a result
of the strong performance in January, light vehicle
registrations remain buoyant in the YTD, up 3.6% y/y
to 379,489 units. IHS anticipates light vehicle
registrations will further improve during 2017, with
passenger car demand up about 2.7% y/y to 2.06
million units and LCV registrations down 0.2% y/y to
409,309 units.
22
Around the World / March 2017
-4.0%
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2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
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Germany Change
-3.0%
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2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
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France Change
© 2017 IHS
Italy and Spain sales outlook
• Spain flattened out in February, with registrations
slightly up 1.8% y/y. This should not be surprising
given that the Spanish car market had been
benefiting from the eighth round of the Plan PIVE
scrapping incentive. The national statistical office
estimates real GDP grew 0.7% quarter on quarter
(q/q) during the fourth quarter, matching its third-
quarter gain. This illustrates the continued resilience
of the economy to domestic political risks, the fallout
from the Brexit vote, and continued deleveraging by
consumers and firms. The main upside appeared to
be stronger-than-expected employment growth
stoking up a firmer recovery in household real
incomes, allowing consumers to shrug off troubling
political uncertainties. IHS anticipates more modest
growth in the Spanish light vehicle market in 2017,
with an increase of about 4.5% y/y to 1.38 million
units.
23
Around the World / March 2017
• The Italian light vehicle market enjoyed another
buoyant month in February. The market was hit in
February with one fewer working day compared with
the same month in 2016. Nevertheless, registrations
in February solidly increased around 6% y/y to
198,672 units. As for the Italian passenger car
market, the continued growth in February came
despite an already-high base of comparison caused
by OEM incentives. IHS anticipates registrations will
reach broadly similar levels, hitting 2.15 million units
during the year.
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25.0%
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2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
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Italy Change
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2014 2015 2016 February2017
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Spain Change
© 2017 IHS
UK and Russia sales outlook • UK light vehicle registrations dipped during February.
After achieving record light vehicle registration levels
during 2016, the United Kingdom cautiously started
its account for 2017 with modest losses. Vehicle
registrations decreased 0.9% y/y during February to
96,767 units. During February, private customers slid
4.4% y/y to 36,018 units, which was not helped by
registrations by business customers falling 5.3% y/y
to 1,398 units. Fleet registrations have offset this,
though, with a gain of 3.3% y/y to 45,699 units.
• The Russian light vehicle market is yet to return to
growth in the early months of 2017 after a decline of
5.1% in February to just 106,658 units. This put YTD
sales volume down 5.4% y/y to 184,574 units. Since
November 2016, the market has been stuck in the
stagnation phase, which will continue another four to
six months. Going forward, supported by some gains
in oil prices and improvements in international
relations, the vehicle sales market is projected to
increase 8.7% in 2017, starting to really recover in
the second half of the year. We are more optimistic
for the following years with a return to growth as oil
prices and the larger economy start to regain some
impetus and postponed demand gives an additional
boost to sales.
24
Around the World / March 2017
-8.0%
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2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
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United Kingdom Change
-40.0%
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2014 2015 2016 February2017
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Russia Change
© 2017 IHS
Europe production outlook
• The European automotive industry, excluding Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), has already
passed pre-financial-crisis volume. However, the second half of 2016 has been the turning point between a recovery
cycle showing robust growth and a post-recovery cycle, when growth will be marginal. Output in the second half of
2016 grew only 1%, and we expect a similar pace of increase in 2017.
• In Russia, we expect output to rebound 9% in 2017 following four years of decreases. Thus, looking at total European
production, full-year growth is expected to reach 1.7% in 2017 after an increase of 2.8% in 2016. Damage from the
Brexit process to vehicle sales, especially in the United Kingdom, will be a key driver leading to flatter domestic
demand, despite the recovery in Southern and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, product activity will allow for strong growth
in exports and support production increases.
25
Around the World / March 2017
-3.0%
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2014 2015 2016 February 2017 YTD 2017 2018 2019
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West Europe Central Europe East Europe Change
© 2017 IHS
Contents
Macroeconomic outlook
Global sales and production outlook
Europe outlook
North America outlook
The rest of the world
Questions and answers
26
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
United States sales outlook
• Light vehicle demand in February remained consistent with the month-earlier result; sales for the month came in at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.5 million units. Although the fundamentals that have supported light vehicle
demand—low fuel prices, available credit, expanding employment, and housing markets—remain, auto sales continue
to be pushed by historically high incentive levels, raising some concern about the robustness of the auto demand
environment. While we expect some potential month-to-month volatility through the next quarter, IHS maintains its full-
year sales projection of 17.4 million units.
• Light truck sales continue to dominate the demand conversation. February light vehicle sales were motivated by a 6.3%
increase in light truck demand, while passenger car sales were down 12.0%. Through the first two months of 2017,
passenger car sales are down more than 126,000 units from 2016. Light truck sales accounted for 63% of light vehicle
demand for the month, compared with the 59% share realized in February 2016.
27
Around the World / March 2017
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2014 2015 2016 February 2017 YTD 2017 2018 2019
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United States Change
© 2017 IHS
Canada and Mexico sales outlook • In Canada, light vehicle sales in February were up
3.2%, setting a new volume record for the month, the
second consecutive record month. The February
results reflected the dynamic trend of light trucks that
has been the most prevalent within the region, with
light truck sales up 7.4% for the month, while
passenger car sales were down 5.1%. We anticipate
light vehicle demand levels should be sustained
above the 1.9-million-unit mark in 2017, but they will
be down approximately 40,000 units from the 2016
volume of 1.95 million units.
• Amid a growing economy, rising consumer
confidence, improved credit availability, and a
reduced flow of used imported vehicles, Mexican
vehicle sales in 2016 grew considerably, up 18.6%.
As in January, February sales were up a more
moderate level, growing 6.5%. The threat of Mexican
demand falling precipitously after the strong 2015
and 2016 results continues to diminish, and
momentum should be sustained at more moderate
levels, especially if the flow of used imported cars
continues to moderate. However, there could be
some growing uncertainties as the new US
administration’s policies begin to unfurl in 2017. We
expect volume of 1.60 million units for 2017, with
sales projected to rise to 1.79 million units by 2019.
28
Around the World / March 2017
-3.0%
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2014 2015 2016 February2017
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Canada Change
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2014 2015 2016 February2017
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Mexico Change
© 2017 IHS
North America production outlook
• North American production in February 2017 declined 4.4% y/y, or 67,600 units, with 1.47 million units produced, which
translates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.60 million units.
• North American production is projected to decline 1.5%, or 276,000 units, to 17.55 million units, marking the first y/y
decline since 2009.
• Inventory levels at the end of February increased 48,100 units, or 1.2%, from January, totaling 4.04 million units, or an
above-average 73-day supply. With February inventory at a more-than-12-year high, an estimated 375,000 units of
inventory need to be shed from stock to align with ideal levels of between 60 and 65 days’ supply.
29
Around the World / March 2017
-6.0%
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-2.0%
0.0%
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4.0%
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0.0
2.0
4.0
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2014 2015 2016 February 2017 YTD 2017 2018 2019
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North America Change
© 2017 IHS
Contents
Macroeconomic outlook
Global sales and production outlook
Europe outlook
North America outlook
The rest of the world
Questions and answers
30
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
South America sales and production outlook
• Light vehicle output in South America is expected to
have grown 25.3% y/y in February 2017, reaching
232,000 units.
• Brazil built an estimated 194,584 units in February,
40.5% above February 2016. The outlook has
improved compared with conditions for most of 2016.
Some disruptions and efforts to address inventory
levels in the second part of 2016 should keep having
a more positive influence. The 2017 full-year outlook
for Brazil is forecast at 2.283 million light vehicles, up
9.1% from 2016, reflecting evidence of strengthening
build schedules as the region starts to hint it may be
ready to come off the bottom of the cycle.
31
Around the World / March 2017
• South America continues to show signs of stabilizing,
with February sales coming in nearly flat y/y after
posting a double-digit bump in January. Argentina
and Chile continue in positive territory, which is
compensating for the weakness we are seeing in
Brazil. Brazilian sales took a 6.8% dive in February,
thus marking the fourth month in a row of single-digit
contractions, after double-digit contractions for most
of the last two years.
-20.0%
-15.0%
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2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
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South America Change
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© 2017 IHS
Japan sales and production outlook • Japanese light vehicle sales increased 8.2% y/y in
February 2017 owing to strong nonminivehicle sales
with new model launches, whereas minivehicle sales
are still in the midst of gradual recovery momentum.
• The Japanese sales outlook for full-year 2017 is now
projected to increase 1.9% to 4.94 million units
because of the recovery trend generating positive
momentum, compared with 2016 when there was
much uncertainty stemming from Brexit and the fuel-
testing scandal, which hurt the minicar market.
Following the US presidential election, the near-term
Japanese economy shows slight optimistic growth
momentum owing to a weaker Japanese yen.
• In February 2017, regional production volume is
expected to skyrocket 10.5% y/y. Japanese output
has increased 10.7% y/y owing to a lower production
result in February 2016 due to partial production halts
for Toyota, as well as strong production for the latest-
generation models. Full-year 2017 output is expected
to reach 9.02 million units, increasing 3.1% y/y owing
to new domestic models as well as export models,
which will have production switched from overseas to
Japan. IHS will carefully watch US policies going
forward as a US pull-out of NAFTA and fuel efficiency
regulation changes will have significant impacts for
Japanese OEMs including future production trends.
32
Around the World / March 2017
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
n-y
ear c
ha
ng
e
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
Japan Change
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
n-y
ear c
ha
ng
e
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
Japan Change
© 2017 IHS
South Korea sales and production outlook • Korean total light vehicle sales increased 7.6% in
February. South Korean sales for 2017 are expected
to reach 1.79 million units, a slight increase of 0.3%
y/y. The overall macroeconomic outlook will not easily
recover, and individual households will suffer a debt
burden and are likely to present lower purchasing
power with the recent political risk. In March 2017,
President Park Geun-hye was impeached, and as a
result, Korea will have its next presidential election in
May 2017. This abrupt decision became a turning
point.
• In Korea, light vehicle production also grew 9.9% y/y
in February thanks to new car releases such as the
Hyundai Grandeur and Samsung QM6 in domestic
sales and the recovery in emerging markets along
with a corresponding positive effect of two extra
working days. In 2017, we anticipate aggregate
output to be 4.29 million units, up 2.9% y/y mainly
because of a low base effect in 2016. Additionally,
overseas markets are expected to support growth as
the premium brand of Genesis broadens its existence
and emerging markets recover from a recession.
However, Brexit in Europe, the new Trump
administration’s trade policies, and interest-rate
increases by the US Federal Reserve in the United
States are risk factors that pressure South Korea’s
output.
33
Around the World / March 2017
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
n-y
ear c
ha
ng
e
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
Korea Change
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
n-y
ear c
ha
ng
e
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
Korea Change
© 2017 IHS
Greater China sales and production outlook
34
Around the World / March 2017
• Light vehicle sales for Greater China in February
2017 reached 1.83 million units, surging 15.5%
compared with the same period in 2016. The surge
was due to mainland China light vehicle sales
jumping 15.7% y/y to 1.81 million units, recovering
from dampened sales thanks to the Spring Festival
holiday.
• From January to February 2017, Greater China light
vehicle sales climbed to 4.36 million units, reflecting a
y/y increase of 4.9%, among which mainland China
achieved 4.29 million sales in total, reporting a
relatively solid 5.1% y/y increase. Passenger vehicle
sales rose 10% y/y to 3.71 million units, while light
commercial vehicle sales plummeted 18.4% y/y to
580,000 units.
• Light vehicle production in February in Greater China is
estimated at 1.76 million units, an increase of 11.4% y/y,
while YTD production is up 1.4% y/y to 4.07 million
units. Light vehicle production in mainland China is
expected to have increased 11.4% y/y in February to
1.74 million units. The full-year 2017 forecast is now for
a 2.6% y/y increase to 28.08 million units.
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
n-y
ear c
ha
ng
e
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
Greater China Change
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
n-y
ear c
ha
ng
e
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
Greater China Change
© 2017 IHS
India/Pakistan sales and production outlook
• In India, light vehicle sales jumped 11% y/y because
of the government’s steps toward remonetization,
which helped generate demand. We continue to see
a push by OEMs in lieu of anticipated pent-up
demand and new model launches, and our growth
projection for 2017 stands at 8% y/y.
• In February 2017, Indian light vehicle production
increased for the 15th consecutive month, jumping
5.2% compared with February 2016 on the back of
strong growth in utility vehicles. Since
demonetization, car manufacturers were forced to
work on their financial arms to attract customers to
showrooms. Schemes like zero down-payment, low
interest rates, and heavy discounting allowed them to
pull ahead demand as Indian consumers clinched the
best available deals of the year. In this round, IHS
has made minor adjustments to the 2017 forecast.
Production is expected to reach 4.4 million units (up
5.6% y/y) in 2017. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, with the
expected reintroduction of the taxi scheme in 2017,
we forecast production to jump 14.8% y/y to 236,000
units in calendar year 2017.
35
Around the World / March 2017
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
n-y
ear c
ha
ng
e
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
India Change
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
n-y
ear c
ha
ng
e
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
India Change
© 2017 IHS
ASEAN/Oceania sales and production outlook
36
Around the World / March 2017
• In February 2017, light vehicle sales in the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
market increased 10.5% compared with February
2016. Thai light vehicle sales increased 20.0% in
February because of a low base stemming from a
new excise tax at the beginning of 2016. Meanwhile,
Indonesia’s car market increased 6.0% y/y and
consumer confidence remained upbeat. Low-cost
green cars (LCGCs) continued to drive demand.
• ASEAN light vehicle output rose 1.7% y/y in February
2017, with 310,394 units produced, and YTD
production output posted 3.1% y/y, with 627,306 units
produced. The full-year 2017 production outlook is
set at 3.9 million units, with mild growth of 1.1% y/y.
In February, Thai production dropped 11% y/y given
the slowdown in export demand and recovering
domestic demand. The country’s light vehicle
production outlook is set at 1.87 million units, a
decrease of 2.5%. Indonesian production in February
2017 was on pace for recovery with 9.5% y/y growth
driven by robust domestic demand for the LCGC
segment and improved consumer sentiments. Full-
year 2017 production is expected to grow at 3.4% y/y,
or 1.16 million units.
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
n-y
ear c
ha
ng
e
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
ASEAN Oceania Change
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2014 2015 2016 February2017
YTD 2017 2018 2019
Year-o
n-y
ear c
ha
ng
e
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
ASEAN Oceania Change
© 2017 IHS
Contents
Macroeconomic outlook
Global sales and production outlook
Europe outlook
North America outlook
The rest of the world
Questions and answers
37
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS 38
Around the World / March 2017
Contact IHS Customer Care
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Questions and answers
39
Around the World / March 2017
© 2017 IHS
Save the date!
IHS Automotive Global Sales and Production Webcast schedule:
Tuesday, 25 April 2017
• Asia session
11:00 a.m. Japanese Standard Time
• Europe and the Americas session
10:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time (United States)
4:00 p.m. Central European Time
40
Around the World / March 2017
IHSTM
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