assessing energy futures 2

8/14/2019 Assessing Energy Futures 2

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2/26

EIA Has Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection

Major oil-producing countries pace investment moreconsistent with higher oil price path

Investment impediments more persistent, even afterseveral years of relatively high oil prices

Cost of doing business increasing

Not due to Peak Oil considerations, although we arefollowing this issue closely


3/26

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

History

AEO2005

AEO2006

World Oil Price, 1980-2030(2004 dollars per barrel)

History

Projections

Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006


4/26

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030(quadrillion Btu)

Natural Gas

Petroleum

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables

Annual Energy Outlook 2006

History Projections


5/26

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

per dollar real GDP

per capita

U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar ofReal Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1)


History Projections


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation

2004 HistoryAEO2005 - 2025

AEO2006 - 2025

AEO2006 - 2030

U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,2004, 2025, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)



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U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector,2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (millions of barrels per day)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2006

2010 2025

20.8

23.022.2

27.9 27.6

Transportation

Residential and

Commercial

Industrial

Electric Power

2030

26.1



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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Hybrids* Diesel

2004 History

AEO2005 - 2025

AEO2006 - 2025

AEO2006 - 2030

U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid and Diesel Vehicles,2004, 2025, and 2030 (thousand units)

*Only includes hybrids that provide tractive power to the vehicle.Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

History

AEO2005

AEO2006

U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030(2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet)


History

Projections


10/26

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector,2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


2010 2025

22.4

25.4

23.4

30.7

26.9

Transportation

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Electric Power

2030

27.0



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U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector,2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (million short tons)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000


2010 2025

1,104

1,229 1,233

1,5081,592

Coal to Liquids

Other

Electric Power

2030

1,784



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U.S. Electricity Sales by Sector,2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


2010 2025

3,567

4,070 3,978

5,2204,956 Transportation

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

2030

5,341



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U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004, 2025, and 2030(billion kilowatthours)

50

20 18

9

3

50

14

24

8

3

53

16

20

10

2

57

15

17

9

2

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Renewable Petroleum

2004 HistoryAEO2005 - 2025

AEO2006 - 2025

AEO2006 - 2030

- percent of total



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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

HistoryAEO2005

AEO2006

U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030(million metric tons)

AEO20066,365 in 2010

AEO2005

6,627 in 2010

AEO2006

7,587 in 2025

AEO20058,062 in 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025 2030

Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2025(metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)

AEO2006

503 in 2010

AEO2005

506 in 2010

AEO2006

411 in 2025

AEO2005

397 in 2025

AEO2006

8,115 in 2030

AEO2006

351 in 2030

History Projections



15/26

Annual Energy Outlook 2006reference case indicates

that through 2030....

U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an averageannual rate of 1.1 percent

The energy efficiency of the economy is projected toincrease at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent

U.S. oil import reliance is projected to grow from 58percent to 62 percent U.S. natural gas use is projected to peak around 2020 Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on

unconventional domestic production, natural gas from

Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an

average annual rate of 1.2 percent


16/26

Guy Caruso

[email protected]

Periodic Reports

Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly

Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly

Annual Energy Outlook 2006, December 2005, full report, February 2006

International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005

Examples ofSpecial Analyses

Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,

March 2004

The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003

Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,Annual Energy Outlook 2005

www.eia.doe.gov


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Backup Slides


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U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

29%

33%

Net Imports

Consumption

Production


History Projection

s


19/26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,1960-2030 (million barrels per day)

Consumption

Domestic Supply

Net Imports

58%

62%


History Projections


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U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2004, 2025, and 2030(miles per gallon)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

New Car New Light-Duty Truck New Light-Duty Vehicle

Average

2004 HistoryAEO2005 - 2025

AEO2006 - 2025

AEO2006 - 2030

Note: Does not include impact of proposed increase in fuel economy standards based on vehicle footprint for

light trucks.



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U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

15%

21%Net ImportsConsumption

Production

Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004, 2025,and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)

2.8

0.6

2.3

1.2 1.2

4.4

6.4

4.1

0

1

2

34

5

6

7

Pipeline Liquefied Natural Gas

2004

AEO2005

AEO2006 - 2025

AEO2006 - 2030


History Projections


22/26

Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply,2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Growth in Alaskan Production

Growth inNon-Associated Unconventional

Growth in LNG Imports

Base Production (all sources)



23/26

U.S. Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2030(2004 dollars per ton)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

History

AEO2005

AEO2006


History Projections


24/26

U.S. Electricity Price, 1970-2030(2004 cents per kilowatthour)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

History

AEO2005

AEO2006


History Projections


25/26

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, includingCombined Heat and Power, 2004-2030 (gigawatts)

New Renewable

New Natural Gas

New Coal

Existing Combined-Cycle

NeededCapacity

Existing Coal Steam

Existing Other Fossil Steam

Existing Combustion Turbine

Existing Nuclear Existing Pumped Storage

Existing Renewable

New Nuclear



26/26

Annual Energy Outlook 2006reference case indicates

that through 2030....

U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an averageannual rate of 1.1 percent

The energy efficiency of the economy is projected toincrease at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent

U.S. oil import reliance is projected to grow from 58percent to 62 percent U.S. natural gas use is projected to peak around 2020 Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on

unconventional domestic production, natural gas from

Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an

average annual rate of 1.2 percent

assessing energy futures 2

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