assessing energy futures 4

8/14/2019 Assessing Energy Futures 4

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Objective, neutral ForecastsDesired future Backcasts

Normative values Scenarios

Michael TottenConservation International

January 27, 2006


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Chapter 3 onAgainstForecastingissuperb.

Essential reading

aboutforecastingenergy supplyand price.

Vaclav Smil


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Corporate & government projections of total U.S. primary energy use from the

1970s. Forecasters clearly did not anticipate the ability of the economy todeliver energy services with less consumption, cost and risk..

1 ExaJoule=6.8 billion gallons of gasoline

105 EJ

Off by 714 billiongallons of gasoline

US govt.s EnergyIndependence legislation


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1 billiongallons/day

AmoryLovins

Seattle

MayorGregNichols


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Scenario planning is appropriate for systems in which there is a lot ofuncertainty that is not controllable. In other cases optimal control,hedging, or adaptive management may be appropriate responses.

G. Peterson et al., Scenario Planning, a tool for conservation in an uncertain world, Conservation Biology, V. 17:2, April 2003

(forecasting)

Multiple uncertainties& uncontrollables


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BACKCASTING SCENARIOSreason from a desired futuresituation and offer a numberof different strategies to

reach this situation.

NORMATIVE SCENARIOStake values and interestsinto account.

Cloudy Crystal Ball

European Environment Agency

http://europa.eu.int/


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Optimizing the delivery of efficient energy services at the point ofuse as the key goal, rather than simply expanding [ever-larger]resource supplies [shipped over ever-longer distances]

Biodiversity friendly (terrestrial, freshwater, marine)

Economically affordable now, or in foreseeable future (via R&D)

Risk resistant and risk-manageable against inflation, pricespikes, sudden disruptions, acts of nature or malicious attack

Resilient - if the energy system fails, it fails gracefully, notcatastrophically

Climate, Air & Water Quality friendly Externalities and adverse impacts are minimal and capable of

further reduction through innovation and best practices

Experience Curves are robust - potential for significant, ongoingimprovements in cost, performance, reduced footprint, etc.

through ongoing R&D and cumulative learning experiences

Select a portfolio of market-based energy service options, policies, incentivesand regulatory measures that satisfy multiple criteria for accruing myriad values

and benefits, including:

Normative values Scenario


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Humans releasegreenhouse gasemissions (carbondioxide, CO

2)

equivalent to aMount St. Helenvolcanic eruptionevery other day

Atmospheric CO2

concentration now380 parts per million(ppm) and increasing

2 ppm annually

Visualizing Planetary Overheating


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Your parents lifespanYour lifespan

Your childrens lifespan

our grandchildrens lifespan

Today

1100

Past400,000

years

The present

atmospheric CO2

concentration hasnot beenexceeded during

the past 420,000years and likelynot during thepast 20 million

years.Globaltemperaturerising 15 to 60

times faster than

me

thane c

arb

on

dioxi

de

Visualizing Rapid Overheating


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Species at risk of extinction

from climate change


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25 billion tons of CO2 emissions/year are lowering the oceans pH and acidifying

the ocean, detrimental to organisms that secrete shell material made of calciumcarbonate, e.g. phytoplankton and coral reefs. Scientists warn the ocean pHchange will persist for millennia and acidified to a much greater extent

than has occurred naturally in at least 800,000 years Royal Society UK


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http://www.ipcc.ch/

R f l b l l d d i d i l CO
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htm


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Range of global energy-related and industrial CO2

emissions for the 40 SRES scenarios

Historically, gross CO2

emissions have increasedat an average rate of about1.7% per year since 1900.

If that historical trendcontinues globalemissions would doubleduring the next three tofour decades and increasemore than sixfoldby 2100.

1990 range
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htmhttp://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/031.htm


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2005 GHG emissions = ~5 GtC

How much in a world twice as populated and10X the gross world product in 2100?


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Contraction & Convergence . . . the logical conclusion of arights-based approach. IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000

Stabilizing atmospheric GHG levels


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HOW TO TRANSFORM MARKETS INTO

CLEAN, SAFE, SECURE, SUSTAINABLE ONES?
http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Lobby/2554/nggw3.jpg


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OIL SUPPLY unSAFE, inSECURE, unSUSTAINABLE


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Oil Disruption Vulnerabilities

Oil tankers must run a gauntlet ofnarrow sealanes. About a fourth ofthe non-Communist worlds oilmust pass through the Strait ofHormuz. The Strait connects thePersian Gulf, to the left, with theGulf of Oman, to the right. The

Below: Saddam Hussein's

setting fire to the oil wells inKuwait, February 1991. Theblack smoke plumes of morethan 700 individual oil wellfires are being blown to thesouth.
http://worldroom.tamu.edu/mideast/photos/photos_L/sts037-152-091.jpghttp://worldroom.tamu.edu/mideast/photos/photos_L/sts037-152-091.jpghttp://worldroom.tamu.edu/mideast/photos/photos_L/sts037-152-091.jpghttp://worldroom.tamu.edu/mideast/photos/photos_L/sts037-152-091.jpg


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NUCLEARPOWER?

The fascination with nuclear power is due to the factthat 1 ton of uranium can displace 20,000 tons of coal


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Ever-present target of nuclear facilities for

military or terrorist attack; Dual civilian-military nature of a nuclearreactor;

Proliferation of weapons-grade material; Diversion of uranium fuel for military or

terrorist use in fabricating atomic bombs;

Contaminant fuel wastes that remainradioactive for millennia; and,

Generating systems that can failcatastrophically, with disastroushuman health and ecologicalconsequences lasting forgenerations, and economicimpacts lasting for centuries

Unfortunately, uranium-generated electricity carriessome intrinsic downsides that are inherentlyintractable:

Displacing coal use worldwide by 2100 would require constructing a 100 MWnuclear reactorevery 10 hours for the entire century. It would requirereprocessing weapons-grade plutonium for use in breeder reactors by 2050.This would produce 5 million kilograms of plutonium per year, equal to 500,000atomic bombs, annually circulating in global commerce.


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Terrori sm the 21 st CenturyReal ity

Among the manysources of electricity,nuclear powercreates a target withthe greatest risk of

major, destructiveacts of terrorism andacts of aggression bynational or sub-national groups.

After the

September 11thterrorist attackwith airplanes it isa most uncertainworld presenting

inherentlyunanswerableWhat-if questions.

If not, why President & Congress spending $1 trillion every 30

months on Military & Security?


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Nuclear reactors as targets?

Unlike the World Trade Centerdisaster, a hit on a nuclearreactor would unleash ordersof magnitude greater damageboth in scale and over time.Over $300 BILLION IN LOSSES.


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Chernobyl s tri gger edmal iciou sly?

It is estimatedthat 30,000people may die

prematurely ofcancer inducedby radiationexposure fromthe release

The Chernobyl accident released 100 times moreradiation than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshimaand Nagasaki. It led to the permanent evacuation of135,000 people from an area of nearly 3,000 squarekilometers.ent contaminated 31,000 square kilometers or 12,400 square


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Catastr ophi c, not gracef ulfai lures

Chernobyl nuclearaccident caused$200 billionlosses.


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Nuclearinherentlybrittlepower?

1000 MW reactor contains >15 billion curies (~2,000

Hiroshima A-bombs fallout) +heat andmechanical/chemical energy facilitating releasecomparable to a megaton ground burst

Cut onsite & offsite

power and the coremelts

1-kT bomb 1 km away(in parked truck) meltscore

Wide body jet orcertain standoffattacks can releasevirtually the full coreinventory

Seriously contaminate
http://echelon1.mit.edu/~nate/reactor/cerenkov.jpghttp://echelon1.mit.edu/~nate/reactor/cerenkov.jpg


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Nuclear legacy terrorist zones?

A legacy of many vulnerable targets and a looming

question of how many more will be added before shifting totargets that fail gracefully, not catastrophically.

$


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$1 Trillion Costs to Decommissions Nuclear Facilities through 2050

IAEA, 2004 Annual Report

www.iaea.org/


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Nuclear waste shipment vulnerabilities

60 million people would bewithin one mile of the100,000 truck and railshipments proposed toship waste to YuccaMountain

.

~ 40,000 metric tons of

spent fuel dischargedfrom U.S. commercialnuclear reactors through1999 is currently stored atabout 70 power plant sites

around the nation (+2,000tons more annually)


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Nuclear waste shipment accidents?

The burning railway cars thatparalyzed Baltimores trafficand bottled up the maineastern transport and cyber-artery of the United States in2001, could have been

carrying spent nuclear fuelrods.

The clean-up wouldn't takeweeks. It would take

centuries. New Department ofEnergy regulations allow forrail cars to carry lethal nuclearfuel.

Each of the 180 rail containersof atomic waste from Calvert


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Megadamus negavitae7% of total global GHG emissions, rising

to 15% given potential expansion


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Of 227 large river basins assessed, 37% arestrongly affected by fragmentation and altered

flows, 23 % are moderately affected, and 40%WRI, Ramsar, IUCN, IWMI Water Resources E Atlas, Watersheds of the World, 2003,

Fragmented R iver B asins
http://www.wri.org/


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Freshwater Fish Species Threatened

%Fish species 8 times morethreatened than mammals

or birds in the USA

21st century Hydro Damming


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21st century Hydro Damming

Threatens to Exceed Last

Centurys Damming -- Mostly inBiodiversity Habitat

Hydro dams that are costly & ecologically damaging


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200 hydro dams planned on

rivers running through thebiodiversity hotspots ofSichuan and Yunnanprovinces.

Yet, China has other viableoptions, such as four times

more wind power than hydroresources, and 50% waterefficiency savings throughdrip irrigation.

y y g y g g

can be displaced through lower cost & lower impact

Energy & Water options

NuJia

ng(S

alw

een) La

ncan

gJian

g(M

eko

ng)

Yangtze

Lita

ngH

e

Yalong

Jiang

Dadu He Min Jiang

JinSh

aJian

g(Ya

ngtze)

>150 MW

50 to 150 MW

A d i


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Amazon dammingd dams and reservoirs in Brazils Amazonian

Source: FearnsidePM. 1995.Hydroelectric damsin the BrazilianAmazon assources of reenhouse

na Brava I on Tocantins


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Net E mis sio ns fro m B razi lia n Reservoirscompared with Combined Cycle Na turalGas

Source: Patrick McCully,Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions:Interim response to the International Hydropower Association,International Rivers Network, June

DAMReservoirArea(km2)

GeneratingCapacity (MW)

Km 2/MWEmissio

ns:Hydro

(MtCO2-

eq/yr)

Emissio

ns: CCGas

(MtCO2-

eq/yr)

Emissio

nsRatio

Hydro/Gas

Tucuru24330 4240 5.7 8.60 2.22 3.87

Curu-

Una

72 40 1.8 0.15 0.02 7.50Balbi

na3150 250 12.6 6.91 0.12 57.58


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DE-CARBONIZEDFOSSIL FUELS?Coal externalitiesworldwide rangebetween $160 billion

and $1.2 trillion peryear that are notreflected in coal-firedelectricity prices


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Fossil-based hydrogen future?

Abundant Coal & abundant problems


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Abundant Coal & abundant problems

Coal is massivelyabundant in the world,

but also enormouslyproblematic.

In the US, more than264,000 acres ofcropland, 135,000

acres of pasture, and128,000 acres of foresthave been lost.

The potential cost forcleaning up US spoiledlands runs in the tens of

billions of dollars.

Still, coal companies areremoving entiremountaintops to exposethe coal below. The

wastes are generally


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S i d SUV D i i Di t


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Super-sized SUVs Driving Disasters

U.S. cars average 9.3 km per liters (22 mpg),Militar Hummer imitators


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Source: Transportation Energy Data Book: No. 23, DOE/ORNL-6970, Oct. 2003; and EIA Annual

USA Oil Consumption patterns

Th d lk f ld l d il i 1881 1995


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The random walk of world real crude-oil price, 18811995

Eli i ti USA Oil d d


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Perhaps the most rigorous...analysisof what it will take to wean us fromforeign oil was tasked by thePentagon and carried out byRocky

Mountain Institute, a respected centerof hard-headed, market-basedresearch.

[T]he book argues persuasively thatby 2035 we can be entirelyindependent of imported oil and thatit will cost less to displace all of theoil that the United States now usesthan it will cost to buy that oil.

Robert C.McFarlane (NationalSecurity Advisor to President Reagan),

Eliminating USA Oil dependency

$70 billion per year netsavings and create a

million net jobs in USA

www.oilendgame.org/

Amory Lovins

Oil i & S b tit ti O ti


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Accrue cost- & tax-free CO2

@ $12/b

@< $26/b

actual projected

Oil-saving & Substitution Options

www.oilendgame.org/


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$70 billion per year Net Savings

www.oilendgame.org/

Accelerated with Golden and Platinum Carrot Incentives


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Winning the Oil Endgame www.oilendgame.org/

High performance policies needed
http://www.oilendgame.org/http://www.oilendgame.org/


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High-performance policies needed

Smart Growth & Less Sprawl


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Smart Growth & Less Sprawl

Collaborations: Alliance for a New Transportation Charter, Smart Growth America,Smart Growth Network, Funders Network for Smart Growth & Livable Communities,Smart Communities Network, Surface Transportation Policy Project, TDM Encyclopedi

Green Buildings ecologically


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Public library NorthCarolina

Heinz

Foundation

OberlinCollege

EcologyCenter Ohio

g g y

sustainable, economically superior,

higher occupant satisfaction

The Costsand Financial

Benefits ofGreen

Buildings, AReport to

CaliforniasSustainable

Building TaskForce, Oct.

2003, byGreg Kats et

al.$500 to $700per m2 netpresentvalue

High-E Windows displacing


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pipelinesIncidentally, full use of superwindows in the U.S. could save

the equivalent of an Alaskanpipeline (2 million barrels of oilper day), as well as accrueover $10 billion per yearof

savings on energy bills.

.

Dayl ight ing coul d displ ace 100


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GWsLighting & AC to remove heatfrom lights consumes half of a

commercial buildings electricity.Daylighting can provide up to100% of day-time lighting,eliminating massive amount of

power plants and saving tens ofbillions of dollars in utility bills.

Some daylight designs integratePV solar cells.

Combined Heat & Power (CHP)


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Other Mfg

8%

Comm'l/Inst

11%

Other

Industrial

6%

Paper

15%

Chemicals

33%

Food

8%

Refining

12%

Metals

5%

Combined Heat & Power (CHP)

81 GW capacity in 2004 8% of total US generation

POTENTIAL

,000MWby2020

alsallUShydro+nucle

ar

+billionnetsavings

0milliontonsCO

2

cuts

I t f P li d i


57/81

Importance of Policy drivers

Since 1974, California electric use

per capita has stayed flat at 7000kWh. Mainly through building andappliance standards and utilityconservation programs, savingbillions of dollars.

But USA electric use has grown50%.

If the USA had followed Calif. itwould use 1/3 less electricity,equivalent to 10 Arctic NationalWildlife Refuges, and be savingover $100 billion annually.

senfeld, Commissioner, California Energy Commission, 2002, [email protected]

Effi i th t d & i d


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Efficiency -- thwarted & ignored

Could satisfy half of all new global supply, but

Energy Assessment, Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability, UNDP, 2000]

Biodiversity friendly climate solutions


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Solar & wind & perennial biomass appear most

benign at large-scale over long term

Biodiversity-friendly climate solutions

Cli t f l b t


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Climate-useful, but

Biodiversity-Unfriendly

CROPS FOR ENERGY

Semi-efficient ambitious renewable scenario


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Semi-efficient, ambitious renewable scenario

Biofuels for US cars on no new land?


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Biofuels for US cars on no new land?

animalprotein

feed

animalprotein

feed

Cellulosehydrolyzed into

30 billiongallons ethanol

oilsoils

TODAY & BUSINESS

AS USUAL30 millionhectares soy

NEXT DECADE &

FUTURE30 million hectaresswitchgrass

Switchgrass 1 to 3x protein

productivity + 5 to 10 x masproductivity of soybeans

Professor Lee Lynd, Big or Little Potatoes?Role ofBiomass in Americas Energy Future, Feb. 2004, http://

Biodiversity friendly Bioenergy?
http://thayer.dartmouth.edu/thayer/rbaef/http://thayer.dartmouth.edu/thayer/rbaef/http://thayer.dartmouth.edu/thayer/rbaef/http://thayer.dartmouth.edu/thayer/rbaef/


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Biodiversity friendly Bioenergy?

Perennial prairie grasses

Growing Americas energy future?


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Produce the firstbillion gallons at

costs approachingthose of gasoline anddiesel.

Establish thecapacity to producebiofuels at verycompetitive pumpprices equivalent torou hl 8 million

Growing America s energy future?

A 2004 assessment by the National Energy Commission

concluded that a vigorous effort in the USA to developcellulosic biofuels between now and 2015 could:

Nathaniel Greene et al., Growing Energy,

Growing Americas energy future?
http://www.bioproducts-bioenergy.gov/pdfs/NRDC-Growing-Energy-Final.3.pdfhttp://www.bioproducts-bioenergy.gov/pdfs/NRDC-Growing-Energy-Final.3.pdf


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Rural American farmersproducing these fuelcrops would see $5billion of increasedprofits per year.

Consumers would seefuture pump savings of

$20 billion per year onfuel costs.

Society would see CO2

emissions reduced by 6.2

billion tons per year,

Growing America s energy future?

Multiple benefits would accrue:

Nathaniel Greene et al., Growing Energy, How Biofuels Can help end Americas oildependence,

Fuel Efficiency Impact on USA Land
http://www.bioproducts-bioenergy.gov/pdfs/NRDC-Growing-Energy-Final.3.pdf


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Requirements for Biofuel Production


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Of the practically exploitable U.S.wind resources of moderate orbetter quality, 95% are located in the sparsely populated 12 GreatPlains states, where the generation potential is three times total

U.S.electricity generation at present. Wind Royal ties 2nd source of


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$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60

windpower royalty $200 $0

farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

lear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001,

incomeCrop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

Federal electricity subsidies
http://www.nci.org/


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Federal subsidies to nuclear,

photovoltaic, solar thermalelectric, and wind electricitytechnologies and to theindustries as a whole totaled:

$200 billion between

1947 and 1999 (in 2005dollars).

Nuclear received 96%, whilesolar power received less

than 3% and wind power lessthan 1%.

Renewable Energy Policy Project, www.repp.org/

Federal electricity subsidies

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Wind

power

PV & Solar

Thermal

Electric

Nuclear

power

%

PV meeting US electricity - distributed
http://www.repp.org/http://www.repp.org/


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PV meeting US electricity distributed

10% efficient commercial PV systems can supply allUS electricity (about 800 GW) from 2 millionhectares distributed throughout the 50 states.

LarryKazmerski,Dispelling the 7Myths ofSolarElectricit

y, 2001,NationalRenewable EnergyLab,www.nrel.gov

Where PV systems stand in the USA


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Photovoltaics arecost-effective at today's

prices of about $6 to$7 per watt.

Where PV systems stand in the USA

Source: Christy Herig, Customer-Sited Photovoltaics Focusingon Markets that Really Shine, NREL,www.nrel.gov/research/pv/cust-sited.html

Attributes of breakeven PV systems
http://www.nrel.gov/research/pv/cust-sited.htmlhttp://www.nrel.gov/research/pv/cust-sited.html


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Compensation for

power at retail electricrates

Tax credits

Financing, leasing,and depreciation

optionsNet-metering optionsand/or rate-basedincentives

Building credits forarchitecturalapplications

Willingness to pay forclean power and

innovation PVs are cost-effective at $6 to $7

Attributes of breakeven PV systems

Economics of Commercial BIPV


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Reference costs of facade-cladding mat

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, InternationalEnergy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003,


http://www.nrel.gov/http://www.nrel.gov/


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SunSlate Building-Integrated

Photovoltaics (BIPV)

+$11,0241.70

2

+$15,3731.89

2

NPV($) BCR

PBP(yrs)

Aluminum

+$14,237

2.14

1

+$18,5862.33

1

NPV($) BCR

PBP(yrs)

PolishedStone

Shang

hai

Beijing

Economic

Measure

Material

Replaced

Net Present Values, Benefit-Cost

Ratios and Payback Periods forArchitectural BIPV (Thin Film,Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing andShanghai (assuming a 15%Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al,Economics of Building Integrated PV in China

, July2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental


Electricity Potential from BIPV
http://www.udel.edu/ceep/


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Stefan Nowak, The IEA PVPS Programme into the second decade of International Co-operation

Electricity Potential from BIPV

Using LCD manufacturing techniques
http://www.iea.org/


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Solar PV electricity at 3 to 5 cents/kWh

Marvin S. Keshner and Rajiv Arya, Study of Potential Reductions Resulting from Super-Large-ScaleManufacturing of PV Modules, National Renewable Energy Lab Report NREL/SR-520-36846, October

Key to achieving competitive PV systems (i.e., $1 per Watt fullyinstalled) is to use a similar cluster production model used sosuccessfully in achieving breakthrough cost reductions andextraordinary productivity gains in Liquid Crystal Display (LCD)

manufacturing. The result would make PV systems a highlycompetitive electricity choice.

At the price of $1.00 per peak watt for a complete and installedsystem, the payback time in states like California is under 5years. Therefore, we expect the demand for solar energy systems

to explode. With a 30 year lifetime, assuming 6% interest, a

Using LCD manufacturing techniques

12 mi ll ion hectar es of 10% ef f. PV systems
http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/thin_film/


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coul d supply US total energy needs fuel s andel ectri ci ty


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A concept called asolution space was usedas part of the citiesPLUSprocess to identify thepathway to reach each

sustainability target.


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assessing energy futures 4

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