australian crop reportdata.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/aucrpd9abcc003/aucrpd9... · 2017-09-11 ·...

Australian crop report

Prepared by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

No. 183 September 2017

© Commonwealth of Australia 2017

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Cataloguing data ABARES 2017, Australian crop report, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, September. CC BY 4.0.

ISSN 1447-8358 ISBN 978-1-74323-359-7 ABARES project 43506

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The next issue of Australian crop report is scheduled to be released on 5 December 2017.

In the next issue:

2017–18 winter crop area estimates and production forecasts updated

2017–18 summer crop area and production forecasts updated

Acknowledgements This report was prepared by Benjamin Agbenyegah, Amelia Brown, Andrew Cameron, Dean Mansfield, Nicholas Perndt, Nathan Pitts, Christopher Price and Sarah Smith.

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Australian crop report September 2017 ABARES

iii

Contents National overview 1

Climatic and agronomic conditions 5

Crop conditions and production forecasts, by state 14

New South Wales 14

Queensland 16

Victoria 17

South Australia 18

Western Australia 19

Changes in Australian production data for 2015–16 onwards 20

Statistical tables 22

Tables Table 1 Winter crop production, Australia, 2007–08 to 2017–18 2

Table 2 Winter crop area, Australia, 2007–08 to 2017–18 2

Table 3 Summer crop area and production, Australia, 2007–08 to 2017–18 4

Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts, median and actual, June 2017 to August 2017 12

Table 5 Winter crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2017−18 15

Table 6 Summer crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2017−18 15

Table 7 Winter crop forecasts, Queensland, 2017−18 16

Table 8 Summer crop forecasts, Queensland, 2017−18 17

Table 9 Winter crop forecasts, Victoria, 2017–18 18

Table 10 Winter crop forecasts, South Australia, 2017–18 18

Table 11 Winter crop forecasts, Western Australia, 2017–18 19

Table 12 Old and new ABS thresholds for EVAO, selected estimates, five-year average 21

Table 13 Winter crop production and area, Australia, 2015–16 to 2017–18 22

Table 14 Summer crop production and area, Australia, 2015–16 to 2017–18 22

Table 15 Production, major crops, Australian states, 2015–16 to 2017–18 23

Table 16 Production, other crops, Australian states, 2015–16 to 2017–18 25

Table 17 Supply and disposal of wheat, canola and pulses, Australia, 2010–11 to 2015–16 27


iv

Table 18 Supply and disposal of coarse grains, Australia, 2010–11 to 2015–16 28

Table 19 Grain, oilseed and pulse prices, fourth quarter 2015 to second quarter 2017 29

Maps Map 1 Australian rainfall percentiles, Australia, 1 June to 31 July 2017 5

Map 2 Australian rainfall percentiles, Australia, August 2017 6

Map 3 Upper layer soil moisture, Australia, August 2017 7

Map 4 Lower layer soil moisture, Australia, August 2017 8

Map 5 Vegetation greenness anomalies, Australia, August 2017 9

Map 6 Rainfall outlook, Australia, September to November 2017 10

Map 7 Probability of exceeding long-term simulated median shire wheat yield, Australia, September 2017 11

Map 8 Rainfall districts, Australia 13


1

National overview Seasonal conditions were mixed for crops during winter and as a result the condition of crops at the start of spring varied significantly. Rainfall was well below average in most cropping regions in June and was highly variable in July and August.

Crops were generally in good condition at the start of spring in Victoria, eastern South Australia, southern Western Australia and southern and eastern New South Wales. Adequate soil moisture levels carried crops in most of these regions during the early part of winter when rainfall was below average, and timely rainfall in August boosted crop prospects. In southern Western Australia, early winter rainfall was below average but timely.

The condition of crops was more variable at the start of spring in other producing regions. On Eyre Peninsula and Yorke Peninsula in South Australia, below average rainfall in autumn and early winter delayed the germination and development of crops. Favourable spring conditions will be critical to ongoing crop development in these regions. In central west New South Wales, crops were moisture stressed at the end of winter and early spring rainfall will be critical to the prospects of these crops. At the start of spring in the north-west cropping region in New South Wales, the south-west cropping region in Queensland and the northern cropping region in Western Australia, crops were generally in very poor condition and it is likely many will not be harvested.

Spring rainfall is likely to be around average in most cropping regions in Australia, according to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November 2017) issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 31 August 2017. The chance of rainfall exceeding the median during spring in parts of Western Australia is lower than average.

Total winter crop production is forecast to decrease by 39 per cent in 2017–18 to 36.3 million tonnes, largely reflecting an expected fall in average yields from the exceptionally high yields of 2016–17. This is a downward revision of 9 per cent from the ABARES forecast published in the June 2017 Australian crop report. This forecast production is 2 per cent above the 10-year average to 2015–16.

For the major crops, wheat production is forecast to decrease by 38 per cent to 21.6 million tonnes, barley production by 40 per cent to 8.0 million tonnes and canola production by 33 per cent to 2.8 million tonnes. Chickpea production is forecast to decrease by 36 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes and oats production by 45 per cent to 1.0 million tonnes.

This forecast production will only be achieved if spring rainfall is sufficient and timely, especially in central west New South Wales and the Eyre and Yorke peninsulas in South Australia.


2

Table 1 Winter crop production, Australia, 2007–08 to 2017–18

Year Unit New South Wales

Victoria Queensland South Australia

Western Australia

Australia

2007–08 kt 3,999 4,692 1,194 4,706 10,761 25,415

2008–09 kt 9,438 3,887 2,326 4,863 13,785 34,378

2009–10 kt 7,787 5,889 1,617 7,035 12,943 35,344

2010–11 kt 14,784 7,625 1,821 9,316 8,044 41,672

2011–12 kt 11,952 7,352 2,329 7,371 16,600 45,670

2012–13 kt 11,123 6,886 2,156 6,470 11,243 37,934

2013–14 kt 9,773 6,773 1,516 7,221 16,510 41,878

2014–15 kt 10,445 5,117 1,464 7,439 14,662 39,197

2015–16 kt 11,624 3,568 2,104 6,105 14,206 37,687

2016–17 s kt 16,570 10,330 3,147 11,157 18,041 59,306

2017–18 f kt 9,487 6,843 1,723 6,393 11,803 36,309

% change 2016–17 to 2017–18

– –43 –34 –45 –43 –35 –39

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat. Due to an ABS change in scope for agricultural data collections, crop production is shown for establishments with an estimated value of agricultural operations (EVAO) of $5,000 or more until 2014–15 and an EVAO of $40,000 or more from 2015–16.

Table 2 Winter crop area, Australia, 2007–08 to 2017–18

Year Unit New South Wales

Victoria Queensland South Australia

Western Australia

Australia

2007–08 ’000 ha 6,312 3,375 873 4,131 7,265 21,978

2008–09 ’000 ha 6,295 3,492 1,208 3,979 7,899 22,901

2009–10 ’000 ha 6,106 3,488 1,173 3,783 8,271 22,844

2010–11 ’000 ha 6,158 3,457 1,217 3,821 7,715 22,392

2011–12 ’000 ha 5,969 3,411 1,205 3,838 8,252 22,693

2012–13 ’000 ha 5,852 3,457 1,222 3,776 8,097 22,421

2013–14 ’000 ha 5,314 3,283 1,105 3,448 8,249 21,420

2014–15 ’000 ha 5,491 3,304 995 3,639 8,313 21,760

2015–16 ’000 ha 5,375 2,915 1,049 3,152 7,771 20,283

2016–17 s ’000 ha 5,869 3,370 1,320 3,523 8,442 22,542

2017–18 f ’000 ha 5,664 3,378 1,304 3,485 8,338 22,185

% change 2016–17 to 2017–18

– –3 0 –1 –1 –1 –2

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat. Due to an ABS change in scope for agricultural data collections, crop production is shown for establishments with an estimated value of agricultural operations (EVAO) of $5,000 or more until 2014–15 and an EVAO of $40,000 or more from 2015–16.


3

In 2017–18 total area planted to summer crops is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to 1.4 million hectares. Area planted to rice and irrigated cotton is forecast to rise given the availability of irrigation water. Area planted to grain sorghum is also forecast to increase, assuming average seasonal conditions during spring and summer. These forecast increases more than offset a forecast fall in area planted to dryland cotton. Total summer crop production is forecast to rise by 21 per cent to around 4.6 million tonnes.

Area planted to grain sorghum in 2017–18 is forecast to increase by 54 per cent to 596,000 hectares. Area planted to grain sorghum in 2016–17 was historically low because of higher expected returns from producing cotton. Grain sorghum production is forecast to increase by 81 per cent to 1.8 million tonnes.

In 2017–18 area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 23 per cent to 430,000 hectares. This is mainly due to a forecast decline in area planted to dryland cotton of 73 per cent to 56,000 hectares, in response to low levels of soil moisture. However, area planted to irrigated cotton is forecast to rise by 7 per cent to 374,000 hectares as a result of an increase in the supply of irrigation water and favourable returns from growing irrigated cotton compared with alternative crops. On 28 August 2017 average storage levels of public irrigation dams serving cotton-growing regions were around 67 per cent of capacity, 11 percentage points higher than at the same date in 2016.

Australian cotton production in 2017–18 is forecast to rise by 2 per cent to 956,000 tonnes of cotton lint and around 1.4 million tonnes of cottonseed. This mainly reflects a forecast 33 per cent rise in the average yield, partially offset by an expected 23 per cent decline in planted area. The average yield is forecast to increase because of an expected rise in the share of area planted to irrigated cotton, which yields higher than dryland cotton.

Area planted to rice is forecast to rise by 5 per cent to 84,000 hectares in 2017−18 in response to plentiful supplies of irrigation water available to rice producers. Rice production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 854,000 tonnes.


4

Table 3 Summer crop area and production, Australia, 2007–08 to 2017–18

Year New South Wales Queensland Australia

’000 ha kt ’000 ha kt ’000 ha kt

2007–08 398 1,668 791 2,877 1,199 4,567

2008–09 402 1,430 746 2,350 1,156 3,794

2009–10 381 1,405 514 1,342 903 2,764

2010–11 713 2,514 790 1,901 1,514 4,446

2011–12 757 3,064 783 2,379 1,558 5,494

2012–13 712 3,205 687 2,250 1,412 5,505

2013–14 568 2,317 559 1,469 1,139 3,847

2014–15 435 2,044 696 2,134 1,149 4,262

2015–16 412 1,656 624 1,821 1,054 3,563

2016–17 s 644 2,287 662 1,455 1,323 3,820

2017–18 f 634 2,677 714 1,938 1,357 4,635

% change 2016–17to 2017–18

–2 17 8 33 3 21

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Note: State production includes cottonseed, grain sorghum, corn (maize), mung beans, rice, peanuts, soybeans and sunflowers. Total for Australia also includes navy beans and small areas and volumes of summer crops in other states.


5

Climatic and agronomic conditions Following a timely autumn break, a drier than average start to winter 2017 has affected germination and growth of winter crops in several areas. Rainfall in June and July 2017 was below average to average in Victoria, South Australia and southern Western Australia and severely deficient to well below average in New South Wales, Queensland and northern Western Australia (Map 1). During August 2017 rainfall was average to well above average across most southern cropping regions but remained below average in central and northern New South Wales and southern Queensland (Map 2).

Map 1 Australian rainfall percentiles, Australia, 1 June to 31 July 2017

Note: Rainfall percentiles are displayed for wheat–sheep zone only. Rainfall for June to July 2017 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record and shown in percentiles. Percentiles rank data on a scale of zero to 100. This analysis ranks the rainfall received for the selected period against the average rainfall total for that same period during the entire historical record (1900 to present). Source: Bureau of Meteorology


6

Map 2 Australian rainfall percentiles, Australia, August 2017

Note: Rainfall percentiles are displayed for wheat–sheep zone only. Rainfall for August 2017 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record and shown in percentiles. Percentiles rank data on a scale of zero to 100. This analysis ranks the rainfall received for the selected period against the average rainfall total for the long-term record (1900 to present). Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Map 3 and Map 4 show the relative levels of modelled upper layer (surface to 0.1 metres) and lower layer (~0.1 to ~1 metre) soil moisture in cropping regions across Australia during August 2017. Upper layer soil moisture responds quickly to seasonal conditions and can reflect rainfall and temperature events in the days leading up to the analysis date. Lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to seasonal conditions and tends to reflect the accumulated effects of events that have occurred over longer periods.

Relative upper layer soil moisture during August 2017 was generally above average to extremely high for cropping regions in Victoria, South Australia and northern regions in Western Australia. It was close to average in southern and central cropping regions in Western Australia, northern cropping regions in Queensland and southern cropping regions New South Wales. However, upper layer soil moisture remained well below average in northern and central cropping regions in New South Wales and southern and central cropping regions in Queensland (Map 3).


7

Map 3 Upper layer soil moisture, Australia, August 2017

Note: Relative upper layer soil moisture is displayed for wheat–sheep zone only. Soil moisture estimates are relative to the long-term record and ranked in percentiles. Estimates are used to compare the upper layer soil moisture from August 2017 and are ranked according to percentiles for each August in the 1911–2015 historical reference period. The extremely high band indicates where the estimated soil moisture level for August 2017 was in the wettest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels for August during the 1911–2015 reference period. The extremely low band indicates where the estimated soil moisture level for August 2017 was in the driest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels for August during the 1911–2015 reference period. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Lower layer soil moisture during August 2017 was generally average in cropping regions in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Lower layer soil moisture was variable but generally well below average to extremely low in most cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland.


8

Map 4 Lower layer soil moisture, Australia, August 2017

Note: Relative lower layer soil moisture is displayed for wheat–sheep zone only. Soil moisture estimates are relative to the long-term record and ranked in percentiles. Estimates are used to compare the lower layer soil moisture from August 2017 and are ranked according to percentiles for each August in the 1911–2015 historical reference period. The extremely high band indicates where the estimated soil moisture level for August 2017 was in the wettest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels for August during the 1911–2015 reference period. The extremely low band indicates where the estimated soil moisture level for August 2017 was in the driest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels for August during the 1911–2015 reference period. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Map 5 shows vegetation greenness anomalies during August 2017 for cropping zones across Australia. This is based on land surface data collected from satellites and shows the level of photosynthetic activity (or greenness) of plants. It can indicate the effectiveness of rainfall for plant growth and be used to help assess the impacts of seasonal conditions on crop production.

Greenness anomalies for August 2017 (Map 5) indicate that vegetation greenness was below average throughout most cropping regions in Queensland, northern and central New South Wales, the Eyre Peninsula of South Australia and central and northern Western Australia. This indicates below average vegetation growth and vigour for this time of year—due to well below average winter rainfall in these regions. However, vegetation greenness was closer to average in cropping areas in southern New South Wales, Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and southern Western Australia—indicating average vegetation growth and crop vigour for this time of year.


9

Map 5 Vegetation greenness anomalies, Australia, August 2017

Note: Vegetation greenness anomalies displayed for cropping regions only. The anomalies are calculated as the difference between the greenness for the month and the average for the month, calculated over the reference period (1992–2008). Below average anomalies generally indicate unfavourable plant growing conditions and above average anomalies generally indicate favourable plant growing conditions. Plant growing conditions are strongly influenced by rainfall and temperature and these three factors often show a strong correlation. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

The latest Bureau of Meteorology three-month rainfall outlook (September to November 2017) indicates no strong tendency towards either a wetter or drier than average spring for cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. The chance of rainfall exceeding the median during spring in parts of Western Australia is lower than average and for parts of Queensland slightly higher (Map 6).


10

Map 6 Rainfall outlook, Australia, September to November 2017

Note: Rainfall outlook is displayed for wheat–sheep zone only. Rainfall climate outlook maps show the likelihood, as a percentage, of exceeding the 1981–2010 median rainfall for the upcoming three months. Median rainfall is defined as the 50th percentile calculated from the 1981–2010 reference period. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

The temperature outlook for September to November 2017 indicates that maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above average in Victorian and NSW cropping regions. Cropping regions in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have roughly equal chances of above or below average maximum and minimum temperatures.

Winter 2017 was drier than average across much of southern and eastern Australia, largely influenced by anomalously high mean surface level pressures in June 2017. El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are the typical large-scale oceanic drivers of rainfall and temperatures during winter. Both were at neutral levels during winter. In their absence, rainfall and temperature were affected by more localised drivers such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the sub-tropical ridge. These influences allowed stable high pressure systems to remain over southern Australia, blocking frontal systems that typically bring rain during winter.

In late August 2017, all oceanic and atmospheric indicators are at neutral levels so in the coming months Australia’s climate is likely to be affected by more localised influences such as sea surface temperatures around the Australian coastline.

The shire-scale wheat forecasting system of the University of Queensland’s Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation produces yield predictions for wheat. The system combines soil moisture conditions at the time of the forecast with the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

At the beginning of September 2017, the probability of exceeding median wheat yields in most cropping regions across Australia was generally below average to average (Map 7). Most of Queensland, northern and central New South Wales and northern Western Australia, show reduced chances of exceeding median yields (between 0 and 40 per cent). In contrast, southern New South Wales, most of Victoria, eastern cropping regions of South Australia and southern


11

Western Australia show an increased chance of exceeding median yields (between 60 per cent and 100 per cent.

This wheat yield forecast is based on climate data up to the beginning of September 2017 and projected climate data after this date. The projected climate data are drawn from historical analogue years based on similarity to the prevailing phase of the SOI. The prevailing SOI phase during the two months preceding this forecast was ‘consistently neutral’.

Map 7 Probability of exceeding long-term simulated median shire wheat yield, Australia, September 2017

Note: Forecast median shire yield ranked relative to all years (%), given the Southern Oscillation Index phase was “consistently positive” during July/August. Source: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation, University of Queensland


12

Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts, median and actual, June 2017 to August 2017

District District no.

June median

mm

June 2017

mm

July median

mm

July 2016

mm

August median

mm

August 2017

mm

New South Wales

NW Plains (W) 52 33 15 30 12 19 12

NW Plains (E) 53 37 25 36 8 30 15

NW Slopes (N) 54 38 48 41 14 37 12

NW Slopes (S) 55 43 44 42 12 41 18

N Tablelands (N) 56 43 69 44 16 42 11

CW Plains (S) 50 38 4 37 14 31 21

CW Plains (N) 51 33 12 28 4 23 13

CW Slopes (N) 64 40 16 45 2 36 21

CW Slopes (S) 65 47 5 50 11 46 33

C Tablelands (N) 62 42 15 46 4 45 27

C Tablelands (S) 63 54 24 57 12 59 46

Riverina (W) 75 32 2 30 15 32 29

Riverina (E) 74 44 2 41 36 43 47

SW Slopes (N) 73 58 4 60 40 62 59

SW Slopes (S) 72 93 10 102 93 114 134

Victoria

N Mallee 76 26 3 29 17 30 45

S Mallee 77 33 3 33 30 36 45

N Wimmera 78 42 5 42 47 43 56

S Wimmera 79 58 10 65 74 65 94

Lower North 80 41 3 40 34 40 53

Upper North 81 54 4 55 53 54 70

Lower North East 82 107 11 113 104 120 151

North Central 88 80 15 83 72 86 89

Western Plains 89 57 15 60 59 67 77

West Coast 90 85 27 90 89 93 112

Queensland

Central Highlands 35 28 5 17 16 13 6

Maranoa 43 25 8 23 23 19 4

W Darling Downs 42 27 13 29 22 19 7

E Darling Downs 41 30 24 31 26 24 5

Moreton S Coast 40 37 32 37 32 29 8 continued …


13

Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts, median and actual, June 2017 to August 2017 (continued)

District District no.

June median

mm

June 2017

mm

July median

mm

July 2016

mm

August median

mm

August 2017

mm

South Australia

Upper South East 25B 50 11 53 68 56 67

Murray Mallee 25A 31 8 31 25 35 37

Murray River 24 29 6 27 23 30 44

East Central 23 74 17 77 101 74 112

Yorke Peninsula 22A 53 17 57 76 54 79

Lower North 21 43 12 44 28 47 57

Upper North 19 26 4 28 7 27 23

Western Agricultural

18 30 9 29 19 28 31

Western Australia

North Coast 8 70 13 65 39 48 65

Central Coast 9 142 45 141 143 113 136

Northern Central 10 53 8 50 41 43 55

South Central 10A 56 27 59 61 52 59

South East 12 19 9 18 10 16 25 Note: Median rainfall is calculated over the period 1900 to May 2017. See Map 8 for Australian rainfall districts. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Map 8 Rainfall districts, Australia

Note: Displayed for major cropping districts only. See Table 4 for district names and observed district rainfall. Source: Bureau of Meteorology


14

Crop conditions and production forecasts, by state New South Wales In 2017–18 total winter crop production in New South Wales is forecast to decrease by 43 per cent to around 9.5 million tonnes, driven by forecast falls in average yields from the exceptional yields of the previous year. This forecast production is a return to the 10-year average to 2015–16. Average yields are expected to fall because of below average winter rainfall and several frosts during August and early September. Area planted to cereal crops is estimated to have fallen by 7 per cent.

Winter rainfall was below to very much below average across the entire winter cropping region. Crops suffered severe moisture stress in the north-west and parts of the northern central west, where autumn rainfall was also below average. Many of these crops were sprayed out or grazed. Crops in other parts of the central west were moisture stressed at the end of winter and in need of early spring rainfall. Crops that were sown early into good levels of soil moisture in the eastern and southern cropping regions were in good condition at the end of winter. However, several frosts in late August and early spring are expected to adversely affect yields of these crops—particularly for canola that was at the critical flowering stage. Sufficient and timely spring rainfall will be critical to the ongoing development of crops, particularly in the central west cropping region.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November 2017) issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 31 August 2017, there is an average chance of exceeding median rainfall across the majority of New South Wales’ cropping regions during spring. Chances of exceeding median rainfall are above average for parts of the south east and north east.

In 2017–18 wheat production is forecast to decrease by 44 per cent to around 6.3 million tonnes. The average yield is forecast to decrease by 41 percent to 1.9 tonnes a hectare because of unfavourable seasonal conditions. Yield prospects for areas of eastern and southern New South Wales were average to above average at the end of winter. However, this is expected to be more than offset by below average yields in much of the north-west and parts of the central west cropping regions. Area planted to wheat in 2017–18 is estimated to have fallen by 6 per cent to 3.3 million hectares.

Barley production in 2017–18 is forecast to fall by 44 per cent to 1.5 million tonnes. The average yield is forecast to be below average at around 1.9 tonnes a hectare, reflecting below average rainfall in key growing areas and frost damage. Area planted to barley is estimated to have fallen by 9 per cent to 790,000 hectares.

In 2017–18 canola production is forecast to fall by 26 per cent to around 620,000 tonnes. Area planted to canola is estimated to have increased by 22 per cent in 2017–18 to around 620,000 hectares, but below average rainfall and severe frosts are expected to adversely affect the average yield.


15

Table 5 Winter crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2017−18

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change %

Prod. change %

Wheat 3,300 1.92 6,336 –6 –44

Barley 790 1.90 1,501 –9 –44

Canola 620 1.00 620 22 –26 Note: Yields are based on area planted.

In 2017–18 area planted to summer crops in New South Wales is forecast to decrease by 2 per cent to 634,000 hectares. This forecast is based on the assumption that spring and early summer rainfall will be adequate for planting grain sorghum and dryland cotton. Soil moisture levels are currently below average and not ideal for summer crop planting. Total summer crop production in New South Wales is forecast to increase by 17 per cent to just below 2.7 million tonnes.

Area planted to grain sorghum in 2017–18 is forecast to be 195,000 hectares—around the 10-year average. Availability of fallow land is high due to the poor winter cropping season in large parts of the cropping region in north-west New South Wales. This, combined with an increase in feed grain demand will provide a strong incentive to plant grain sorghum, if adequate rainfall is received. Grain sorghum production is forecast to increase by 89 per cent in 2017–18 to 688,000 tonnes.

In 2017–18 cotton production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 608,000 tonnes of cotton lint and around 860,000 tonnes of cottonseed. The average yield is expected to rise by 26 per cent but planted area is forecast to fall by 18 per cent to 268,000 hectares. The average yield is expected to rise because of a forecast increase in the share of area planted to irrigated cotton. Area planted to dryland cotton is expected to decline by 72 per cent to 30,000 hectares, but area planted to irrigated cotton is expected to rise by 9 per cent to 238,000 hectares. Dryland cotton has higher moisture needs than grain sorghum and given current conditions, above average rainfall during the planting window is required for more area than forecast to be planted to dryland cotton plantings to be greater than forecast.

Area planted to rice in 2017–18 is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 82,000 hectares, in response to plentiful supplies of irrigation water available to rice producers. Rice production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 845,000 tonnes.

Table 6 Summer crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2017−18

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change %

Prod. change %

Grain sorghum 195 3.53 688 44 89

Cotton lint 268 2.27 608 –18 3

Cottonseed 268 3.21 860 –18 3

Rice 82 10.25 845 5 5 Note: Yields are based on area planted, except Cotton which is based on area harvested.


16

Queensland Seasonal conditions in the latter half of autumn and winter were very unfavourable for crop establishment and development in Queensland. Above average rainfall in March resulting from Tropical Cyclone Debbie was followed by well below average rainfall from April to August across all Queensland cropping regions. Additionally, there were record high temperatures across south-eastern Queensland during winter.

Earlier sown crops in central Queensland were able to develop root systems capable of accessing stores of soil moisture and at the end of winter were in better condition than crops further south. Additionally, several frost events in August are expected adversely affect yields in southern cropping regions. Crops in south-west cropping regions were generally in very poor condition at the end of winter and it is likely many will not be harvested.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November 2017) issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, there is an above average chance of exceeding median rainfall in Queensland’s cropping regions during spring, although any early spring rainfall is likely to be too late to benefit winter crops. Harvesting has already begun in central Queensland.

In 2017–18 total winter crop production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 45 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes, driven by lower yields. This forecast production is 1 per cent below the 10-year average to 2015–16.

Wheat production in 2017–18 is forecast to fall by 50 per cent to 900,000 tonnes, largely as a result of a 47 per cent decline in the average yield. Area planted to wheat is estimated to have declined by 5 per cent to 620,000 hectares because of unfavourable conditions in late autumn and early winter.

In 2017–18 chickpea production is forecast to decrease by 35 per cent to 650,000 tonnes, driven by an expected 38 percent fall in the average yield. Area planted to chickpeas is estimated to have increased by 5 per cent to a record 560,000 hectares, reflecting favourable returns relative to alternative crops.

Table 7 Winter crop forecasts, Queensland, 2017−18

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change %

Prod. change %

Wheat 620 1.45 900 –5 –50

Barley 90 1.67 150 –5 –50

Chickpeas 560 1.16 650 5 –35 Note: Yields are based on area planted.

Area planted to summer crops in 2017–18 in Queensland is forecast to increase by 8 per cent to 714,000 hectares, assuming the favourable spring rainfall outlook is realised. Summer crop production in Queensland is forecast to rise by 33 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes, assuming average seasonal conditions during summer.

In 2017–18 area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to increase by 60 per cent to 400,000 hectares. If realised, this would be a return to average levels following low plantings in 2016–17. Grain sorghum production is forecast to increase by 77 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes.


17

Cotton production is forecast to rise by 1 per cent to 348,000 tonnes of cotton lint and 492,000 tonnes of cottonseed in 2017–18. The average yield is expected to rise by 43 per cent but area planted is forecast to fall by 29 per cent to 162,000 hectares. The average yield is forecast to rise because of an expected increase in the share of area planted to irrigated cotton. Area planted to irrigated cotton is expected to increase by 5 per cent to 136,000 hectares but area planted to dryland cotton is expected to fall by 74 per cent to 26,000 hectares, to be largely replaced with grain sorghum.

Table 8 Summer crop forecasts, Queensland, 2017−18

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change %

Prod. change %

Grain sorghum 400 2.88 1,150 60 77

Cotton lint 162 2.15 348 –29 1

Cottonseed 162 3.04 492 –29 1 Note: Yields are based on area planted, except Cotton which is based on area harvested.

Victoria Winter rainfall was slightly below average in the major cropping regions in Victoria with June and July being particularly dry. Soil moisture levels were adequate at the end of autumn and supported crops during this period of below average rainfall. Above average August rainfall increased soil moisture levels to average and boosted crop prospects. Crops were generally in good condition at the beginning of spring.

In its latest three-month seasonal outlook (September to November 2017), issued on 31 August 2017, the Bureau of Meteorology forecast spring rainfall to be average across the cropping region in Victoria.

In 2017–18 total winter crop production in Victoria is forecast to fall by 34 per cent to 6.8 million tonnes, driven by expected falls in yields from the record highs set in 2016–17. This forecast production is 28 per cent above the 10-year average to 2015–16. Planted area is estimated to have remained largely unchanged.

Wheat production in 2017–18 is forecast to decrease by 33 per cent to 3.5 million tonnes. The average yield forecast to fall by 33 per cent to an above average 2.3 tonnes a hectare.

In 2017–18 barley production is forecast to fall by 38 per cent to 2.0 million tonnes, as a result of a forecast 35 per cent fall in the average yield. Planted area is estimated to have decreased by 4 per cent to 900,000 hectares, reflecting unfavourable expected returns compared with canola and pulses.

Canola production in 2017–18 is forecast to decrease by 7 per cent to 650,000 tonnes, driven by a 22 per cent fall in the average yield. Area planted to canola is estimated to be 18 per cent higher than in 2016–17 at 420,000 hectares, reflecting favourable planting conditions and higher expected returns compared with cereals.


18

Table 9 Winter crop forecasts, Victoria, 2017–18

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change %

Prod. change %

Wheat 1,550 2.26 3,500 0 –33

Barley 900 2.22 2,000 –4 –38


South Australia Conditions in South Australia were mixed for crop establishment and development during autumn and winter. Rainfall on Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula and the lower north was well below average between March and June. Significant area was planted dry in these regions but the conditions delayed germination and these crops were between six and eight weeks behind normal development at the end of winter. Yields are expected to be below average in these major production regions and may fall further if there is heat stress during late crop development. Beneficial rainfall in other SA regions is expected to boost yields to average to above average.

In 2017−18 total winter crop production in South Australia is forecast to decrease by 43 per cent to 6.4 million tonnes, driven by large declines in average yields from the high yields of the previous year. Planted area is estimated to have reduced by 1 per cent because of unfavourable planting conditions in some areas. This forecast production is 1 per cent above the 10-year average to 2015–16.

Wheat production in 2017−18 is forecast to decrease by 43 per cent to 3.8 million tonnes. This largely reflects a decrease in the average yield to 1.9 tonnes a hectare, down from 3.3 tonnes a hectare in 2016−17. Planted area is estimated to have decreased by 2 per cent to under 2.0 million hectares.

In 2017−18 barley production is forecast to fall by 44 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes as a result of a forecast 43 per cent decrease in the average yield from the 2016−17 record. Planted area is estimated to have fallen by 1 per cent. Some rainfall late in the planting window is estimated to have resulted in additional area planted to barley on the Eyre Peninsula. This rainfall came too late for the additional area to be planted to canola and pulses, which had higher expected returns at time of planting.

Canola production in 2017−18 is forecast to decrease by 31 per cent to 270,000 tonnes. An increase in planted area is expected to be more than offset by a forecast decline in the average yield. Area planted to canola is estimated to have risen by 7 per cent, but this was constrained by unfavourable conditions in some regions during the planting window.

Table 10 Winter crop forecasts, South Australia, 2017–18

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change %

Prod. change %

Wheat 1,970 1.91 3,770 –2 –43

Barley 792 2.12 1,680 –1 –44



19

Western Australia Autumn rainfall in most cropping regions in Western Australia was well below average, with the northern and central regions the worst affected. Below average rainfall persisted in June and July in most regions but timely showers sustained most crops in the south. Crops in the northern and eastern central regions were moisture and heat stressed due to the unfavourable conditions, which is expected to adversely affect yields. It is likely some crops in these regions will not be harvested.

Above average rainfall was widespread in August, which benefited crops in the western-central, southern and south-eastern cropping regions. Given timely and sufficient spring rainfall, yields in these regions are likely to be average to above average.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s three-month rainfall outlook indicates that the chance of rainfall exceeding the median during spring in parts of Western Australia is lower than average.

In 2017–18 total winter crop production in Western Australia is forecast to decrease by 35 per cent to 11.8 million tonnes, driven by large declines in yields from the high yields of 2016−17. This forecast production is 7 per cent below the 10-year average to 2015–16.

Wheat production is forecast to decrease by 29 per cent to 7.1 million tonnes. This largely reflects a decrease in the average yield to around 1.4 tonnes a hectare, down from 2.0 tonnes a hectare in 2016−17. In 2017–18 planted area is estimated to have decreased by 2 per cent to 5.0 million hectares.

In 2017–18 barley production is forecast to fall by 37 per cent to 2.7 million tonnes as a result of a 38 per cent decrease in the average yield.

Canola production in 2017–18 is forecast to decrease by 45 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes as a result of a 48 per cent decline in the average yield. Area planted to canola is estimated to have risen by 6 per cent due to favourable expected returns. However, this increase was constrained by unfavourable seasonal conditions in the eastern central and northern regions late in the planting window.

Table 11 Winter crop forecasts, Western Australia, 2017–18

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change %

Prod. change %

Wheat 5,000 1.41 7,075 –2 –29

Barley 1,348 1.97 2,659 2 –37

Canola 1,320 0.92 1,211 6 –45

Lupins 350 1.04 365 –3 –55 Note: Yields are based on area planted.


20

Changes in Australian production data for 2015–16 onwards The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its latest estimates of the value and volume of agricultural production from the 2015–16 Agricultural Census on 7 July 2017.

The ABS changed the scope for inclusion in the census to all businesses with an estimated value of agricultural operations (EVAO) of $40,000 or greater from all businesses with an EVAO of $5,000 or greater. The previous scope applied from 1993–94. It made this change to better align the survey with contemporary definitions of an agricultural business and reduce the overall reporting load for smaller agricultural businesses. The ABS is expected to apply this scope to all future ABS rural environmental and agricultural commodity collections.

The ABS designed the EVAO to estimate the relative size of agricultural activity undertaken by a business. It uses it to determine whether an agricultural business is within scope for rural environmental and agricultural commodity surveys. To determine the EVAO, the ABS first applies three-year average weighted prices to livestock sales and farm livestock numbers and to crop area and production data and aggregates the resulting values. The EVAO indicates the size or extent of agricultural activity, not of the value of receipts (turnover) of individual farms (ABS 2017a).

The ABS has also released revised production data for the five years from 2010–11 to 2014–15 based on the updated EVAO cut-off. These revised data give an indication of how the changes affect Australian crops. Table 12 shows the average difference in area and production for selected major crops.

The higher EVAO cut-off results in small reductions in all area and production estimates for Australian crops.

Implications for ABARES outputs ABARES has incorporated the ABS figures for 2015–16 in this edition of the Australian crop report. The higher EVAO cut-off has resulted in a structural break in the time series published by ABARES, so data from 2015–16 onwards are not directly comparable with earlier data.

ABARES will make all future Australian crop forecasts on the basis of the higher EVAO cut-off. Previous ABARES forecasts cannot be assessed for accuracy against the new data. Users of ABS rural environment and agricultural commodity data should be cautious when analysing long time series of data and ensure they are familiar with the notes to tables in ABARES publications.

The ABS has changed the EVAO cut-off from time to time. It was $5,000 or greater from 1993–94 to 2014–15, $22,500 or greater for 1991–92 and 1992–93, $20,000 or greater for 1989–90 and 1990–91, $5,000 or greater from 1986–87 to 1988–89 and $2,500 or greater before that.

References ABS 2017a, Agricultural commodities, Australia, 2015–16, cat. no. 7121.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, accessed 30 August 2017.

—— 2017b, Value of agricultural commodities produced, Australia, 2015–16, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, accessed 30 August 2017.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/7121.0Main+Features12015-16?OpenDocument

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/7503.0Main+Features12015-16?OpenDocument


21

Table 12 Old and new ABS thresholds for EVAO, selected estimates, five-year average

Category unit EVAO $5,000 and above EVAO $40,000 and above % difference

Wheat

Area ’000 ha 13,076 12,823 −2%

Production kt 25,843 25,355 −2%

Barley

Area ’000 ha 3,787 3,702 −2%

Production kt 8,302 8,126 −2%

Canola

Area ’000 ha 2,686 2,654 −1%


Oats

Area ’000 ha 771 737 −4%


Grain Sorghum

Area ’000 ha 641 619 −3%


Rice

Area ’000 ha 88 84 −4%

Production kt 863 822 −5%

Corn (maize)

Area ’000 ha 64 62 −5%

Production kt 440 426 −3% EVAO Estimated value of agricultural operations. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


22

Statistical tables Table 13 Winter crop production and area, Australia, 2015–16 to 2017–18

Crop Area Production

2015–16 ’000 ha

2016–17 s ’000 ha

2017–18 f ’000 ha

2015–16 kt

2016–17 s kt

2017–18 f kt

Wheat 11,282 12,835 12,447 22,275 35,009 21,614

Barley 4,108 4,035 3,925 8,992 13,414 8,009

Canola 2,091 2,317 2,588 2,775 4,135 2,753

Chickpeas 677 1,052 1,099 875 1,854 1,188

Faba beans 220 230 213 301 477 341

Field peas 238 230 218 205 415 280

Lentils 225 306 355 182 830 419

Lupins 534 515 508 652 1,032 528

Oats 821 914 742 1,300 1,873 1,033

Triticale 78 99 82 127 255 137 f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Note: Crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory in Australian totals. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia

Table 14 Summer crop production and area, Australia, 2015–16 to 2017–18

Crop Area Production

2015–16 ’000 ha

2016–17 s ’000 ha

2017–18 f ’000 ha

2015–16 kt

2016–17 s kt

2017–18 f kt

Grain sorghum 521 386 596 1,791 1,017 1,840

Cottonseed a 270 557 430 890 1,322 1,352

Cotton lint a 270 557 430 629 935 956

Rice 27 80 84 274 814 854

Corn (maize) 53 67 57 400 428 367

Soybeans 21 28 33 40 47 61

Sunflower 23 29 37 25 32 39 a Cotton area is estimated harvested area. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Note: Crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory in Australian totals. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Cotton Australia

Australian crop report September 2017

ABARES

23

Table 15 Production, major crops, Australian states, 2015–16 to 2017–18

Winter crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Wheat

2017–18 f 3,300 6,336 1,550 3,500 620 900 1,970 3,770 5,000 7,075 7 33

2016–17 s 3,500 11,375 1,550 5,200 653 1,800 2,000 6,600 5,125 10,000 7 34

2015–16 2,933 6,898 1,342 1,815 611 1,316 1,770 3,679 4,616 8,511 11 53

Five-year average to 2016–17 3,271 7,777 1,502 3,293 704 1,351 1,972 4,563 4,961 8,811 8 41

Barley

2017–18 f 790 1,501 900 2,000 90 150 792 1,680 1,348 2,659 5 19

2016–17 s 870 2,697 940 3,200 95 300 800 3,000 1,325 4,200 5 17

2015–16 966 2,528 844 1,107 138 372 769 1,719 1,384 3,248 6 16

Five-year average to 2016–17 811 1,973 895 1,934 111 255 816 2,069 1,298 3,290 5 18

Canola

2017–18 f 620 620 420 650 2 1 225 270 1,320 1,211 1 2

2016–17 s 510 842 355 700 2 2 210 390 1,240 2,200 1 1

2015–16 568 937 277 287 2 3 149 219 1,094 1,328 1 2

Five-year average to 2016–17 695 1,042 429 624 1 1 262 354 1,272 1,662 1 2

Oats

2017–18 f 280 280 120 250 24 10 45 70 270 417 3 6

2016–17 s 322 477 154 440 30 25 63 175 341 750 4 7

2015–16 278 383 140 185 36 23 65 103 300 601 2 4

Five-year average to 2016–17 293 354 130 250 41 16 61 108 278 615 4 7 continued …


ABARES

24

Table 15 Production, major crops, Australian states, 2015–16 to 2017–18 (continued)

Summer crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Grain sorghum

2017–18 f 195 688 0 0 400 1,150 0 0 1 2 0 0

2016–17 s 135 365 0 0 250 650 0 0 1 2 0 0

2015–16 155 604 1 3 363 1,177 0 0 2 5 0 0

Five-year average to 2016–17 173 544 0 2 389 1,156 0 0 1 3 0 0

Cottonseed a

2017–18 f 268 860 0 0 162 492 0 0 0 0 0 0

2016–17 s 328 836 0 0 229 486 0 0 0 0 0 0

2015–16 163 559 0 0 107 331 0 0 0 0 0 0

Five-year average to 2016–17 231 729 0 0 141 400 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rice

2017–18 f 82 845 0 1 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

2016–17 s 79 805 0 1 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

2015–16 25 262 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

Five-year average to 2016–17 72 745 0 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 a Cotton area is estimated harvested area. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes or 500 hectares. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


ABARES

25

Table 16 Production, other crops, Australian states, 2015–16 to 2017–18

Winter crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Chickpeas 2017–18 f 478 478 25 30 560 650 30 30 6 0 0 0

2016–17 s 480 792 16 28 533 1,000 19 27 4 7 0 0

2015–16 398 489 13 3 252 371 11 7 4 4 0 0


Field peas

2017–18 f 52 55 45 50 0 0 90 110 31 66 0 0

2016–17 s 50 85 49 100 0 0 100 175 31 55 0 0

2015–16 48 73 54 21 0 0 114 82 22 29 0 0


Lentils

2017–18 f 4 4 170 150 0 0 180 265 0 0 0 0

2016–17 s 5 10 140 350 0 0 160 470 0 0 0 0

2015–16 1 3 107 40 0 0 115 137 1 1 0 0


Lupins

2017–18 f 63 63 35 30 0 0 60 70 350 365 0 0

2016–17 s 51 66 33 60 0 0 70 100 361 805 0 0

2015–16 95 111 46 31 0 0 62 53 331 457 0 0

Five-year average to 2016–17 63 73 34 35 0 0 63 76 306 480 0 0 continued …


ABARES

26

Table 16 Production, other crops, Australian states, 2015–16 to 2017–18 (continued)

Summer crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Area ’000 ha

Prod. kt

Corn (maize)

2017–18 f 22 196 1 7 33 162 0 0 1 4 0 0

2016–17 s 21 189 5 55 40 178 0 0 1 6 0 0

2015–16 17 170 5 61 30 164 0 1 0 4 0 0


Soybeans

2017–18 f 20 40 1 1 12 20 0 0 0 0 0 0

2016–17 s 16 29 1 1 11 17 0 0 0 0 0 0

2015–16 13 26 1 1 7 12 0 0 0 0 0 0


Sunflower

2017–18 f 16 21 0 0 20 18 0 0 1 0 0 0

2016–17 s 15 20 0 0 11 9 0 0 3 3 0 0

2015–16 11 13 0 0 9 9 0 0 3 3 0 0

Five-year average to 2016–17 13 18 1 0 9 8 0 0 2 2 0 0 f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes or 500 hectares. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


27

Table 17 Supply and disposal of wheat, canola and pulses, Australia, 2010–11 to 2015–16

Crop 2010–11 kt

2011–12 kt

2012–13 kt

2013–14 kt

2014–15 kt

2015–16 kt

Wheat

Production 27,410 29,905 22,855 25,303 23,743 22,275

Apparent domestic use 5,663 6,334 6,451 6,785 7,154 7,268

– seed 695 649 631 619 640 643

– other a 4,968 5,685 5,820 6,165 6,514 6,625

Exports b 18,584 24,656 18,644 18,612 16,587 16,116

Imports b 12 14 17 20 22 25

Canola

Production 2,359 3,427 4,142 3,832 3,540 2,775

Apparent domestic use a 811 871 631 969 915 1,088

Exports 1,549 2,557 3,512 2,863 2,626 1,857

Pulses

Production

– lupins 808 982 459 626 549 652

– field peas 395 342 320 342 290 205

– chickpeas 513 673 813 629 555 875

Apparent domestic use a

– lupins 621 416 290 286 306 398

– field peas 95 130 145 175 124 72

– chickpeas 39 93 1 0 1 1

Exports

– lupins 186 565 169 340 243 254

– field peas 302 215 177 169 168 134

– chickpeas 474 581 853 629 663 1,145 a Calculated as a residual: production plus imports less exports less any observed or assumed change in stocks and, for wheat only, less seed use. b Includes grain and grain equivalent of wheat flour. Notes: Production, use, trade and stock data are on a marketing-year basis: October–September for wheat; November–October for canola and pulses. Export data on a marketing-year basis are not comparable with financial year export figures published elsewhere. Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes. Due to an ABS change in scope for agricultural data collections, crop production is shown for establishments with an estimated value of agricultural operations (EVAO) of $5,000 or more until 2014–15, and an EVAO of $40,000 or more from 2015–16. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


28

Table 18 Supply and disposal of coarse grains, Australia, 2010–11 to 2015–16

Crop 2010–11 kt

2011–12 kt

2012–13 kt

2013–14 kt

2014–15 kt

2015–16 kt

Barley

Production 7,995 8,221 7,472 9,174 8,646 8,992

Apparent domestic use 2,631 2,075 2,182 2,218 2,714 2,651

– seed 167 164 172 184 185 180

– other a 2,464 1,911 2,011 2,035 2,529 2,471

Export 5,364 6,146 5,289 6,957 5,932 6,342

– feed barley 3,601 3,758 2,972 3,944 3,070 4,351

– malting barley 1,062 1,619 1,512 2,273 2,149 1,394

– malt (grain equivalent) 700 770 805 740 713 596

Oats

Production 1,128 1,262 1,121 1,255 1,198 1,300

Apparent domestic use 1,009 1,049 884 1,001 960 1,026

– seed 35 35 34 41 40 43

– other a 974 1,014 850 960 920 983

Export 118 213 237 253 238 274

Triticale

Production 355 285 171 126 143 127

Apparent domestic use 355 285 171 126 143 127

– seed 7 5 4 4 6 5

– other a 348 280 167 122 137 123

Export 0 0 0 0 0 1

Grain sorghum

Production 1,935 2,239 2,229 1,282 2,209 1,791

Apparent domestic use b 1,167 984 1,060 1,083 885 572

– seed 3 3 3 3 4 3

– other a 1,164 981 1,056 1,080 881 569

Export b 341 950 1,179 1,146 397 1,638

Corn (maize)

Production 357 451 506 390 495 400

Apparent domestic use b 320 312 347 401 331 432

– seed 1 1 1 1 1 1

– other a 319 311 346 400 330 431

Export b 9 46 106 106 60 64 a Calculated as a residual: production plus imports less exports less any observed or assumed change in stocks and less seed use. b For summer crops, export and apparent domestic use volumes are shown in year of actual export and consumption, which is typically in the year following production. Export data are on a marketing-year basis and are not comparable with financial year export figures published elsewhere. Note: Production, use and export data are on a marketing-year basis: November–October for barley, oats and triticale; March–February for grain sorghum and corn (maize). Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)


29

Table 19 Grain, oilseed and pulse prices, fourth quarter 2015 to second quarter 2017

Crop 2015 Q4

A$/t

2016 Q1

A$/t

2016 Q2

A$/t

2016 Q3

A$/t

2016 Q4

A$/t

2017 Q1

A$/t

2017 Q2

A$/t

Wheat

Domestic: feed, del. Sydney 289 300 264 240 239 271 226

International: US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf a 298 323 265 249 253 288 274

Barley

Domestic: 2 row feed, del. Sydney 252 283 227 191 183 237 210

Export: feed b 273 325 248 248 232 278 225

Export: malting b 329 352 292 275 267 318 261

International: feed, fob Rouen a 251 262 218 204 204 228 217

Grain sorghum


Export b 500 377 261 272 284 290 331

Oats


International: CME oats nearby contract 223 248 181 168 200 184 221

Corn (maize)


International: US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf a 233 222 231 204 204 222 211

Oilseeds

Domestic: canola, del. Melbourne 552 494 537 508 548 536 529

International: Europe rapeseed, cif Hamburg 576 517 557 544 578 548 575

International: US no. 2 soybeans, fob Gulf a 492 505 547 544 521 482 481

Pulses

Domestic: lupins, del. Kwinana 320 350 270 278 272 298 265

Domestic: chickpeas, del. Melbourne 794 607 1,139 1,108 776 993 1,034

Domestic: field peas, del. Melbourne 519 433 602 413 355 555 362

Export: chickpeas b 865 618 1,055 1,272 968 904 1,023

Export: field peas b 568 513 646 634 506 590 458 a Average of daily offer prices made in US dollars and converted to Australian dollars using quarterly average of daily exchange rates. b Export unit values reflect the average price received for grain exported over the quarter, not current market prices. These prices are the average unit value (free on board) of Australian exports recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A long lag time can exist between when exporters negotiate prices and when the product is exported. Notes: Q1 refers to January–March; Q2 refers to April–June; Q3 refers to July–September; Q4 refers to October–December. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; CME Group; Farm Weekly; International Grains Council; The Land; The Weekly Times; US Department of Agriculture

australian crop reportdata.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/aucrpd9abcc003/aucrpd9... · 2017-09-11 ·...

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