automotive aftermarket 2025€¦ · sales channels | balance of power between oes and iam 1% oems...
TRANSCRIPT
CLEPA Conference
Automotive Aftermarket 2025
March 22nd, 2018
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THE GLOBAL AFTERMARKET
Global AM parts retail market value by region
bn EUR
Source: IHS, Team analysis
+3.2%
2025
174
2017
135
5938
2017
+5.7%
2025
85
+2.3%
2025
102
2017
86
+8.6%
2025
166
2017
5144
+1.9%
2025 2017
1410
2025 2017
+4.0%
Global +4.5%
2025
566 398
2017
3
SEVEN INDUSTRY TRENDS
AREAS OF CHANGE
Independent wholesale consolidation
Online platforms
Value chain integration
3D printing
TRENDS DRIVING CHANGE
Short term
(0-5 years)
Medium term
(5-10 years)
Long term
(+10 years)
Mobility services & new ownership models
Intermediary power
Connectivity
Softwarization
Electric vehicles (EV)
Autonomous
vehicles
KEY TRENDS BEFORE 2025
Source: Team analysis
VEHICLE
TECHNOLOGY
OWNERSHIP
MODELS
DISTRIBUTION
CHANNELS
4
VALUE CHAIN IMPACT
'DO-NOTHING’
SCENARIO 2025
UPSIDE
SCENARIO 2025
1) Overall market trend shown – individual developments and share might differ
European AM parts retail market value 1)
bn EUR
48 51 58
2017
161 161
123
Source: Based on 33 interviews, Team analysis
- 10% + 20%
Supplier revenue
EBIT impact
VEHICLE
TECHNOLOGY
OWNERSHIP
MODELS
DISTRIBUTION
CHANNELS
5
37 41
2527
1516
28
33
34
11
+3.4%
Base case 2025
161
5
4
2017
123
5
3
VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY | Growth per product category
European AM parts retail market value by product type
bn EUR
1) Based on data produced by driver and vehicle 2) BEV = battery electric vehicle
x% CAGR ’17-’25
15.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
4.6%
2.2%
Average vehicle age up by ~1 yr. Electronics parts up by ~25%
Average tire price up by ~5% EV tire price higher by ~3%
~0,2% price increase
# crashes down by ~2%
Cost/crash up by ~1%
Maintenance demand down by ~5% Cost/repair up by ~5%
Wear-and-tear demand down by ~5% Cost/repair up by ~5%
70% of car park connected ~140 EUR revenue/car/year
Source: Based on 33 interviews, Team analysis
Wear-and-Tear
Maintenance
Crash repairs
Accessories
Retrofit solutions
Tires
Software/content/data
6
OWNERSHIP MODELS | Fight for customer access just opened
161
82%
5% 9%
4%
161
82%
5% 5%
8%
2017
123
92%
4% 4% 0.4%
Third parties
taking over control
161
82%
5% 12%
1%
Base case 2025
Non-OEM fleets1) OEM fleets Private w. insurance service contracts Private
European AM parts retail market value by vehicle owner
bn EUR
Source: Based on 33 interviews, Team analysis
2025: OEMs keeping
control Base case 2025
OEM leverage data
access, brand and
network advantage
Increase in fleet park
shared between
OEM and 3P2)
OEM brand erosion
gives advantage to
multi-brand fleets
3rd party fleets take
advantage of lower
service cost and digital
know how
Market controlled by insurances w. service contracts up by 20%
Private ownership still dominating in segment III
50% of new car sales and 13% of car park in fleet ownership in 2025
Expansion of fleets into segment II
2025: Platforms
dominating
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SALES CHANNELS | Balance of power between OES and IAM
1%
OEMs taking
more active role
161
10%
35%
56%
5%
IAM dominating
161
10%
30%
59% 54%
1%
2017
123
10%
29%
10%
24%
Base case 2025
161
65%
1%
DIY OES (own prod.) OES IAM
Source: Based on 33 interviews, Team analysis
OES gaining Base case 2025 IAM gaining
Increasing share of
Segment III in car
park lowers overall
OES market share
OES leverage data
access, contain fleets
and adopt faster
change
Slight OES advantage
due to data access
IAM leverage digital
capabilities, professional
and specialized service
networks and lean SC
IAM
OES
European AM parts retail market value by sales channel
bn EUR
8
Suppliers Small specialized
wholesalers
Software and
application providers
OEM
INDEPENDENT WHOLESALE | Shift towards digital platforms
Future role of the wholesale
Source: Based on 33 interviews, Stern Stewart, Team analysis
Data
source
Ecosystem
Digital
Plattform
Repair shops
(own franchise)
Repair shops
(large chains)
Repair shops
(small chains)
Repair shops
(OES)
Repair shops
…
Data
clouds
Fulfillment platform
(possibly incl. 3PL)
Workshop network /
franchise concept Analytics platform
Transactional data (IoT) Optimization algorithms Value-add solutions
Today‘s focus Future focus
Rationale
Offering of data
mining and AI based
solutions
Benchmarking
Inventory planning
Market intelligence
Logistics optimization
Value-added services
...
Shift only a matter of
time due to tremendous
potential:
Taking out cost and
inventory out of the
network
Top line boost though
market intelligence
Who will make it? –
three scenarios:
Today’s large
wholesalers (LKQ …)
Today’s digital players
(Check24, Amazon …)
Supplier-controlled
platforms
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SALES CHANNELS | Example UK pharma wholesale market
Source: Stern Stewart
Megatrends:
Huge cost
pressure in the
system
Consolidation
(manufacturers,
pharmacies,
competitors)
Vertical integration
Manufacturers
striving for supply
chain control
Battle for patient
data
Managed / home
care
Personalized
drugs
Biologicals
…
Digital business
models:
E2E inventory
transparency
Robot dispensing
E-prescription
AI-based
qualification
App-based
ordering
Telemedicine
Patient risk
monitoring
Central fill for
pharmacies
E-pharmacies
Predictive
analytics (e.g.
demand forecast)
AI-based supply
chain optimization
Traditional “full line” wholesaler revenue pool evolution
% in value
Traditional wholesaler profit pool evolution
%
Mid 2010s
100%
50%
Mid 2000s
100%
90%
Full-line wholesale Others
Mid 2010s
6-7%
Mid 2000s
12.5%
Median wholesaler margin
Value-added
services
15%
Trade
1-2%
Wholesaler EBIT
margin by business segment
AGENCY
DIRECT-TO-PHARMACY (DTP)
DIRECT-TO-HOSPITAL (DTH)
DIRECT-TO-PATIENT
REDUCED WHOLESALE AGREEMENTS (RWA)
SOLUS AGREEMENTS
SHORT-LINE DISTRIBUTORS
....
10
AFTERMARKET
AGENDA 2025
SUMMARY: SUPPLIERS’ AFTERMARKET AGENDA 2025
Asia and Eastern Europe strategy
Softwarization and use of data
End customer business models (e.g. retrofits)
Fleet strategy
Special product offering (e.g. FoD)
Specific go-to-market approach
TCO & availability optimizing services
Car and driver data access
Digital network platform
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