aviva morley absolute taa fund paul moody head of investment development milan, 8 november 2007

Aviva Morley Absolute TAA FundPaul Moody

Head of Investment Development

Milan, 8 November 2007

This document is for professional advisers and market counterparty or intermediate customers only. The content is not approved for use with private/retail investors or pension scheme members.

Agenda

Introduction to Morley

Introduction to GTAA

Investment Philosophy and Process

Risk Control

Fund Performance

Summary

Introduction to Morley

Part of the worldwide Aviva Group

World’s fifth-largest insurance group*

Largest in the UK

Standard and Poors A+ stable rating**

59,000 employees

40 million customers worldwide

*Based on gross worldwide premiums for the year ended 31 December 2006

**Source: Standard and Poors. “An insurer rated ‘A’ has STRONG financial security characteristics, but is somewhat more likely to be affected by adverse business conditions than are insurers with higher ratings.” http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/eu/page.article/2,1,5,0,1021558138686.html

Aviva UK Aviva InternationalUK Fund Management

Morley Fund Management Group Ltd

Aviva FundServices SA

(Luxembourg)

CUIM Polska SA(Warsaw)

Morley Fund Management Limited

(London)

Morley Fund Management

International Ltd

(Boston)

Hibernian InvestmentManagement Ltd

(Dublin)

PortfolioPartners Ltd

(Melbourne)

Critical mass in all asset classes

Assets under management of billion across the full spectrum of asset classes

Experience stretches across wide range of client types

Largest UK based active manager

Employs over 700 people, including 232 investment professionals

Cash, 23.27

Equity, 87.93

Fixed Income,

81.99

Property, 48.34

Other, 8.81

By Asset Class (€ bn) Total: 250.3*

€ 250.3

* Represents asset managed by firms within the Morley group of companies as at 30 June 2007

Equity, 59.12

Fixed Income,

55.13

Property, 32.51

Other, 5.93Cash, 15.65

Active asset allocation overlay on €120bn Aggregate assets managed €4bn

GTAA Investment team

Chief Investment Officer Adrian Jarvis (Interim)

Fund manager

Jonathan Abrahams

Fund Manager

Carmen Magness

Portfolio Analyst

Nichola Guinn

Quant Analyst

tba

Head of Strategy and Multi Asset Funds

Steve Cleal

TAA Modelling & Performance

Analyst

Niral Shukla

Quant Analyst

Jing Yiang

Senior Economist

John Ip

(International)

Senior Economist

Stewart Robertson

(UK & Europe)

Asset Allocation Specialist

Sergio Ferreira


Hassan Johaadien

Strategic Asset Allocation Specialist

Mirko Cardinale

What is Tactical Asset Allocation?

Exploits inefficiencies in asset prices resulting from:

Investor sentiment, such as excessive optimism or pessimism

Structural anomalies such as legislation, tax or market habit

Non profit-maximising participants Bond Market

Selection

Equity Market

Selection

Asset Class Selection

Currency Selection

A diversified source of AlphaA diversified source of Alpha

Morley’s strength in asset allocation

Experience – Asset allocation team and process in place since 1999. Responsible for €120bn of assets

Track record* - Consistent out performance of the benchmark over the last eight years, with no down years. Information ratio of 1.03 (refers to MPPL Balanced Managed Fund overlay Q498 to Q207).

Strong investment process – Combines rigorous fundamental analysis with skills of experienced fund management team and independent risk management

Consistency – Scenario based analysis combined with multiple diversified, relatively small positions for consistent performance in all economic environments

Source Morley

* Decemeber 1998- December 2006

Process

Investment process – overview

We aim to deliver consistent excess returns

Stage 1: Economic scenario analysis

Economists and strategists meet weekly to discuss output of economic analysis to derive scenarios of possible economic outcomes

Considering several possible scenarios provides greater consistency of returns irrespective of economic environment

‐ Synthesis of regional economic outlooks

‐ Capture uncertainties around the central case

‐ Scenarios chosen based on probability and significance for asset prices

‐ Quantified for impact on interest rates, economic growth, corporate profits etc.

Output: Scenarios with projections for growth, inflation, rates, profits

Source: Morley Fund Management As at 24th September 2007

Central ViewEconomic Rebound

55%

Sub-Trend Growth

20%

Recession

25%

Stage 2: Forecasting returns

Economic forecasts are used to generate projections for assets under each scenario

Bond forecasts are derived from yield movements and duration

Equity forecasts are driven by

Current dividend yield

Earnings growth forecasts

Predicted equity reratings

Currency forecasts are derived using a scorecard approach. Variables include:-

Value measures (PPP)

Cyclical indicators

Fiscal and monetary policy

Momentum and market positioning

Output: A set of asset return forecasts for each scenario

Stage 3: Optimal portfolio analysis

The asset return forecasts generated for the central scenario are input into the optimiser to generate the ‘best’ portfolio i.e. that combination of assets that maximises the expected return for a given level of risk

The optimiser incorporates a boot strap approach.

Rather than use a single time period for estimating the covariance matrix, history is divided into numerous discrete periods. This generates solutions that are robust to changing regimes

This process is repeated for each scenario under consideration, giving a separate optimal portfolio for each scenario

A review of the returns that would be generated by each optimal portfolio under each scenario is produced. This is in the form of a matrix of possible outcomes.

Output: An optimal portfolio for each scenario

Stage 4: Portfolio selection

Morley’s Asset Allocation Committee is a small team responsible for selecting the template for all Morley’s TAA clients

The committee draw on their experience

to consider, challenge and develop the internal research, in particular the scenarios and candidate portfolios

In deciding the template, the AAC seek:

To generate strong returns under the central scenario

To deliver respectable returns under alternative scenarios

A broad balance of return over time from beta, markets and currency


Hassan Johaadien12 years experience


Steve Cleal19 years experience

Chief Investment Officer

(interim)Adrian Jarvis

18 years experience

Output: A robust set of asset positions

Morley’s Asset Allocation Committee

Stage 5: Implementation

The success of the TAA process is critically dependent on the successful implementation of the model portfolio across client mandates

A team of experienced portfolio managers monitor fund positions and initiate derivatives trades where appropriate

Trade execution is undertaken by a separate, experienced team with a long history of dealing significant volumes in global derivatives market

In 2006, €135bn of futures were executed

Morley’s market presence gives it access to timely market intelligence on trading conditions

Regular contact with the largest investment banks ensures trades are executed in the most cost effective manner

Daily risk reports enhance the understanding of the likely behaviour of the portfolio under a variety of different market outcomes

Output: A fund designed to generate the alpha target

Implementation for ATAA Fund Libor +20% p.a.

GTAA target

-20%

-10%

+20%

+40%

-80%

+40%

+10%

+10%

+16%

-20%

-20%

+20%

-16%

+20%

-10%

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Cash

Euro

US Dollar

Japanese Yen

JA 10Y Bond

US 10Y Bond

UK 10Y Bond

Canada 10Y Bond

GE 10Y Bond

Mexico

South Africa

Singapore

Korea

Hang Seng

ASX 200

S&P 500

TOPIX

IBEX 35

MIB 30

DAX 30

Euro Stoxx 50

FTSE 100

GTAA Positions: Long Short

Relative risk-adjusted sizeof active positions

equity beta21%

equity market40%

bond beta0%

bond market24%

currency15%

Stage 5: Implementation October 2007

Risk Control & Performance

Risk management

Independent Risk Team measures:

Value at Risk (VAR) daily using internal proprietary model

Volatility calculated using unweighted covariance matrix approach

Parallel analyses using two sets of historical return data

Scenario analysis to analyse impact of extreme events (Asian crisis, Black Monday etc.)

The contribution to risk from each individual asset is quantified based on its interaction (covariance) with other portfolio assets

Daily monitoring and formal monthly meeting with fund managers

VaR (%)Confidence Interval

VaR Monthly(%)

99.50% 4.03

99.00% 3.64

98.50% 3.39

98.00% 3.20

97.50% 3.05

95.00% 2.55

84.00% 1.52

Source: Morley, as at 28 September 07

Monthly VAR, Aviva Morley Absolute TAA Fund

Performance update – Absolute TAA fund performance since launch

Aviva Morley Absolute TAA (I) Share Price Returns

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Jan-

06

Feb-0

6

Mar

-06

Apr-0

6

May

-06

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug-0

6

Sep-0

6

Oct-06

Nov-0

6

Dec-0

6

Jan-

07

Feb-0

7

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug-0

7

Sep-0

7

Aviva Morley Absolute TAA I % Growth TR Def GBP LIBOR GBP 1 Month % Growth TR Def GBP

Source: Lipper/Morley, as at 01-Oct-07

25.76Since launch (Jan 06)

Performance %


Sharpe Ratio


Annualised Volatility (%)

Biographies

Adrian Jarvis

Adrian JarvisChief Investment Officer (Interim)

Joined Investment Industry in 1990

Main Responsibilities

As CIO, Adrian has overall responsibility for investment philosophy and process for equities and fixed income. Adrian chairs the Asset Allocation Committee, responsible for establishing the asset mix of Morley’s balanced fund mandates and is ultimately responsible for monitoring performance and risk control measures across portfolios.

Experience & Qualifications

Adrian joined the firm (as Norwich Union Investment Management Ltd (NUIM)) in 2000 as Senior Quantitative Analyst with responsibility for developing NUIM’s quantitative research capabilities. He has held the position of Head of Strategy, responsible investment strategy, quantitative research and quant funds leading the team of economists, strategy and index fund managers and derivatives specialists since February 2000. Prior to joining NUIM Adrian spent three years at NPI Asset Management, during which time he was promoted from Director of Strategy & Quantitative Analysis to Head of Global Asset Allocation. Previously he gained extensive investment experience at CIN Management as Assistant Director of Global Asset Allocation and Shell International as Senior Quantitative Analyst. Adrian holds a BSc and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics, and studied Investment Management at the London Business School.

Steve Cleal

Steve Cleal




As a member of Morley’s Asset Allocation Committee, Steve helps formulate the House Strategy for investment markets. He is also responsible for ensuring that the asset distribution of multi asset funds is in line with House Strategy.


Steve joined the firm (as Norwich Union Investment Management) in 1987. Prior to being appointed Head of Balanced Funds in July 2000, Steve undertook a variety of roles including managing a US strategy fund and generating the firm's view on the UK and North American economies. He has worked closely with a number of internal and external clients, providing guidance on investment and strategic issues. Steve holds a BA (Hons) in Economics and Sociology from Keele University and has completed the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate.

Hassan Johaadien

Hassan Johaadien




To develop and apply Morley’s process for Strategic Asset Allocation to create better benchmarks for client funds and identify special opportunities. Also to develop Morley’s TAA models and use them to propose tactical trades for Morley’s Asset Allocation Committee.


Hassan joined Morley in July 2005. Previously he worked for Shell Pensions as Head of Research. Hassan holds a BSc in Statistics, Computing & Economics from University College London. He also holds the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate.

Paul Moody

Paul MoodyHead of Investment Development – Specialist Products



Working with Morley’s Specialist Fund team on product development and as ‘product specialist’ for asset allocation, structured products, convertible bonds and quantitative equity funds.


Paul joined Morley in 2000. Paul previously developed Morley’s SRI 'Sustainable Future' range of funds in the UK and Europe. Prior to that, Paul worked for NPI, specialising in the retail market. Following the purchase of NPI by Henderson Investors, he developed SRI across the AMP distribution outlets.

Paul holds a BA (Hons) in Economics, DipPFS (Personal Finance Society Diploma) and the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate.

Important Information (1)

This document is for Investment Professionals only. It is not for Private/Retail investors.

Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Morley as at 31 October 2007.

Any opinions expressed are based on the internal forecasts of Morley and they should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Morley. No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature.

Performance figures sourced from Lipper Hindsight and illustrated on a bid to bid, gross income reinvested basis for the I share class in the currency shown. Other information sourced from Morley. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of an investment in the fund can go down as well as up and can fluctuate in response to changes in exchange rates. A re-structure of the funds took place on 20 November 2006 that changed some of the fund names, objectives and charges of the Aviva Morley SICAV. Please read the current Prospectus for full details of the current fund range before investing.

Past performance is not a guide to the future.

The distribution and offering of shares may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This document should not be taken as a recommendation or offer by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation.

For Germany: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Morley Fund Management Limited, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland - An der Welle 4,60322 Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland or from Aviva Fund Services, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.

For Austria: The "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna, has been appointed by the Company as the paying agent within the meaning of § 34 InvFG. Accordingly, the redemption of shares can be made via the "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna. The prospectus, the articles of association, the last annual report and the semi-annual report, once published, are available at the office of the "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna or from Aviva Fund Services, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.

Important Information (2)

For Spain: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV which are approved by and registered with CSSF in Luxembourg and CNMV in Spain are available free of charge from Morley Fund Management Limited, Sucursal en España, Calle Pinar 5, 28006 Madrid, España or from Aviva Fund Services, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.

For Switzerland: Fortis Foreign Fund Services AG, Rennweg 57, 8023 Zurich was authorised by the Federal Banking Commission as Swiss representative of the Fund and acts also as paying agent. Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts and articles of the SICAV are available free of charge from the head office of the Swiss representative, Morley Fund Management Limited, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland - An der Welle 4,60322 Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland or from Aviva Fund Services, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.

For Italy: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Morley Fund Management Limited, Sede Secondaria di Milano, Corso Matteotti, 10, 20121 MI, Italia or from Aviva Fund Services, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.

For Luxembourg: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Aviva Fund Services, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.

For UK: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Morley Fund Management Limited, No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ or from Aviva Fund Services, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.

Morley is a business name of Morley Fund Management Limited, registered in England No. 1151805. Registered Office: No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority and a member of the Investment Management Association. Morley is also a business name of Morley Fund Services Limited and Morley Pooled Pensions Limited. All are Aviva companies.

Contact us at Morley Fund Management Limited, No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ

MFM 07/942

aviva morley absolute taa fund paul moody head of investment development milan, 8 november 2007

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