BA 30310: Foresight in Business & Society

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A Quote to Start the Day

“A good hockey player plays where the puck is.

A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.”

Wayne Gretzky

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Consider…

Why do market leaders so often get caught off guard? (i.e. play where the puck used to be)

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HP

How did HP not foresee the “Post-PC era”?

“We know we’re the fifth man in a four man race.”Richard Kerris, HP Executive, WSJ, July 1, 2011 © 2013 University of Notre

Dame. All rights reserved.

How did Microsoft not foresee the profit potential of Search…?

“Your phone should figure out what you would like to be searching for before you do.”

Eric Schmidt, Google CEOThe Futurist, Sept-Oct 2011© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

#18 in 2013:

How did Kodak so underestimate the potential of digital photography…?

Can you guess who invented the world’s first digital camera in 1975?

Bonus Question:

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How did GM not foresee the emerging demand for fuel efficiency…?

Launched: 1996

Withdrawn: 1999

Launched 2002

Launched 1999

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How did Hasbro miss the gaming app transition?

WSJ 12/15/2011© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

How can business better anticipate change to make better decisions about the future?

http://business.nd.edu/news_and_events/multimedia_gallery/video.aspx?id=5241

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The Future Is…

What did you see that surprised you?

What skills do those executives suggest will be required in the future?

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Class Exercise (Groups of 3-4)

Obsolescence…

2. What is mainstream now that did not exist 10 years ago?

1. What is obsolete now that was mainstream 10 years ago?

3. What is mainstream today that may be obsolete in 10 years?

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What is Strategy?

Operational Effectiveness (is not Strategy)

Performing similar activities better than rivals

Strategy

Performing different activities

Performing similar activities in different ways

Source: Michael Porter, “What is Strategy?”© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

What is Strategy?

Operational Effectiveness

(Better)Strategy

(Different)

Competitive AdvantageStrategic Advantage

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Competitive Convergence

Superior strategic positions are likely to be

cognitively distant.

Position A

Position B

Uncontested Positions

Close Cognitive Proximity

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Strategy - Being Different

“We do not merely want to be the best of the best. We want to be

the only ones who do what we do.”

Jerry Garcia The Grateful Dead

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What is Strategy?

What are some examples of companies or CEOs that have been different?… of companies that pursued Operational Effectiveness and were passed by?Why wouldn’t ALL companies aim to be different?

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Foresight

The ability to anticipate future events and devise plans to take advantage of opportunities and

minimize risk.Judging Too Soon

Deciding Too Late

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Adapted from Dr. Peter C. Bishop, Studies of the Future, University of Houston

Actionable Foresight

Source: Get There Early, Bob Johansen,Institute for the Future

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Course Learning Modules

Anticipating Change… To Make Better Decisions about the Future

1. Perspective - Emergent Change in Business and Society

2. Evidence-Based Foresight3. Insight - Implications for

Business

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About the Professor

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Grading Breakdown

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Class Participation

Discussion Questions and Lesson Plans Posted on Concourse by End of Prior Week

In Class Sign-In Sheet for Attendance & Preparation

Expect to be Called on In Class

10% of overall grade

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Syllabus & Class Management

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Questions…

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…for next class

CLASS PREPARATION ▪FutureThink pp. 1-21

Homework Assignment Graph, Photograph, Paragraph

Due_______________© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Student Name: Section:

Source: U.S. Dept of Education –National Center for Educational Statistics, http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=76

Photo Source: The Economist, July 2nd-8th, 2011, Page 46

Trend Observation – Graph, Photograph, Paragraph

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Guest Speaker PresentationBill Marquard “Finding The AND”

7 PM Date TBD

102 DeBartoloAlternatively: Read Posted Article

As a consultant, Bill Marquard has advised some of the world's most influential and forward-thinking companies. Having also served as a C-level leader, he has walked the executive's path.

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