balangero asbestos tailings dump environmental rehabilitation
DESCRIPTION
This presentation shows how Risk Based Decision Making was performed on a real project (which won an international call for bids), using Riskope's CDA/ESM project evaluation methodology.TRANSCRIPT
1 1 1Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
Using Risk as a Driving Parameterin the Design of the
Environmental Rehabilitaton of an
Asbestos Mine Dump
F. & C. Oboni
2 2 2Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
Width 800 m
Height 200 – 250 m
Estimated Volume 5060 Mm3
Slope 35 – 45 degrees
3 3 3Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
Before...and after first phase. It looks simple...
4 4 4Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
... but it is not!
5 5 5Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
At each design step risk has been integrated in the decision making process:
Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3Bla bla Bla Bla Bla Bla
By using the
CDA/ESM (Comparative Decision Analysis/Economic Safety Margin) developed by Riskope International
with CDA/ESM alternatives can be compared all along their life cycle, from cradle to grave
6 6 6Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
7 7 7
Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
Two code compliant alternatives can feature completely different risk profiles:
EXAMPLE: using an aerial tramway to haul waste material, rather than trucks.
It is important to recognize that alternatives' risks may have very different time frames, which is taken into account by CDA/ESM
CDA/ESM includes a simplified risk analysis for each phase characterising the life of a project.
8 8 8Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
9 9 9
Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
CDA/ESM has been successfully applied to a number of international projects and is taught in specific courses by Riskope International.
Thanks to CDA/ESM cimparing alternatives becomes:
Clear and concrete,
Trasparent
Riproductible
Justifiable
10 10 10
Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
When deploying CDA/ESM risk scenarios are expressed numerically and graphically.
For each scenario the following has to be defined:
Max estimated Probability of event
Max estimated cost of event
Min estimated Probability of event
Min estimated cost of event
11 11 11Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
12 12 12
Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
Risk can be displayed in a ProbabilityCost plot as a “Risk Bubble”
Likelihood
0.00
1.00
Consequence
Probabilità
1/100 per year
1.00
Conseguenza35
,000
$
1/10 per year20
0$
13 13 13
Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
It is intuitively easy to add to the Risk Bubble reputational/public opinion damages, converted in monetary values, see the red line.
Likelihood
0.00
1.00
Consequence
Probabilità
1/100 per year
1.00
Conseguenza35
,000
$
1/10 per year20
0$
14 14 14
Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
This is an example of a Risk Analysis result. NB: The Risk Bubbles are displayed only with their centers or to vertical segments to display their uncertainty
Pro
babi
lity
Consequence in MUS$
1/10
1/100
1/1000
1
1 in a Million
.....
15 15 15
Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
Can you see the difference? The left image shows risks (14).Right image displays the tolerability on top of risks.
The right plot clearly indicates that only 7 out of the 14 are intolerable; of those CDA/ESM will show that actually only 3are truly significant! This outcome generates huge economic returns
16 16 16
Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
17 17 17Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
18 18 18Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
19 19 19
Riskope International SA © 2009 www.riskope.com
ISBN: 978-0-9784462-3-9
ConclusionsThanks to specific methodologies it is possible
to:
Select the riskiest scenarios and mitigate them at preliminary design level already,
Draw attention of all stakeholders to rational priorities,Define a mitigation masterplan of a project all along its
life.
This will enable to generate more rational and sustainable projects.