Reassessing the Standard of Living in the Soviet Union:

An Analysis Using Archival and Anthropometric Data

Betsy BrainerdJanuary 29, 2007

Presentation to the Program on the Global Demography of Aging,

Harvard School of Public Health

“The greatest failed experiment in the history of the human race.”

-- Joel Mokyr

on the Soviet Union

Did the standard of living improve in the Soviet Union in the postwar period?

• GNP grew in every decade

• But know little about standard of living: little data; some unfavorable trends

• Important: our judgment of the Soviet growth model depends in part on whether growth translated into improved well-being for the population as a whole

This paper:

• Examines alternative measures of well-being: birth weights; child and adult heights; infant and adult mortality

• Useful supplement to traditional measures of living standards, especially where economic data is of poor quality and reliability

• Previously unexploited data sources

Outline:

1. Introduction and motivation2. Related literature3. Previous assessments of GNP growth and consumption

in the USSR4. New data sources5. Trends in height, birth weight, and mortality 6. Hypotheses7. Conclusions and further work

Related literature:

• Economic history: heights and the ‘antebellum puzzle’ in the US; ‘early industrial growth puzzle’ in Europe

• Comparative economics: reassessments of Soviet growth (Robert Allen on 1928-1940 period)

• Archival research in Soviet economics and history: Paul Gregory and Mark Harrison, J. Econ Lit Sept. 2005

• Russian mortality crisis of 1990s

Conventional measures of growthin the Soviet Union

“The fundamental problem in evaluating Soviet growth is data quality.”

-- Easterly and Fischer, 1994

Problems with Soviet economic statistics

• Strong incentives for overreporting output

• Methodological differences between Soviet and western national income accounting practices

• Selective publication of data

• Shortages; poor quality of goods; lack of market prices

• Growing underground economy

Estimates of national income growth in the Soviet Union,1928 – 1985 (annual rates of growth)

Khanin Bergson/CIA TsSU

1928-1985 3.3 4.3 8.8

1928-1941 2.9 5.8 13.9

1950s 6.9 6.0 10.1

1960s 4.2 5.2 7.1

1970s 2.0 3.7 5.3

1980-85 0.6 2.0 3.2

Comparisons of Soviet and Western economic performance, 1950 – 1980

(annual rates of growth)

Soviet Union E-OECD United States

1950 -1980

1970 -1980

1950 -1980

1970 -1980

1950 -1980

1970 -1980

GNP percapita 3.3 2.1 3.3 2.3 1.9 2.0

Householdconsumptionper capita

3.7 2.6 3.2 2.6 2.1 2.3

New data sources

• Data on infant and adult mortality from the Soviet archives:

by region, urban/rural, age and sex (adult mortality) for 1959, 1970 and 1979

• Additional (limited) archival and published data on wages, health care infrastructure, food and alcohol consumption

• Anthropometric data: birth weights and child heights across regions, 1910s - present; adult heights from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey

Advantages of anthropometric and mortality data:

• More objective measures of well-being than economic growth or consumption

• Not affected by data problems inherent in more conventional measures

• Take into account that some economic activity is non-monetized

Insights from anthropometric data

• Adult height is a cumulative measure of nutritional status in infancy and childhood; measures net nutrition

• Fogel and others: height can provide a wealth of information on living standards; height and income highly correlated

• At the population level nearly all differences in average height are due to environmental influences: can compare stature across countries and over time

Soviet Anthropometric Data

• Most collected by the Semashko Inst. of Public Health from 1920s to present

• 59 Russian regions and most USSR republics

• Collected in preschools and schools; at least 100 children of each sex age each age (n = 165 on average)

• Underlying RSFSR data represent average heights of over 470,000 children

• Average child heights converted into percentiles of US growth standards, from (old) standard US growth charts

(1) Child height data:

Soviet Anthropometric Data, cont.

• Researchers sometimes excluded children with “defects” and chronic illnesses

• Urban areas sampled more frequently; urban stature is greater on average than rural stature

• Surveys not representative of USSR or RSFSR

• If better-off children more likely to go to school, will over-estimate heights (schooling became compulsory in 1958)

Possible problems with child height data:

05

1015

2025

3035

4045

5055

60P

erce

ntile

1910191519201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985

Moscow St. Petersburg

Height of boys age 4-15 by year of birthas a percentile of US standards

05

1015

2025

3035

4045

5055

60P

erce

ntile

1910191519201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985

Moscow St. Petersburg

Height of girls age 4-15 by year of birthas a percentile of US standards

05

1015

2025

3035

4045

5055

60Pe

rcen

tile

1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985Year of birth

Kiev Kharkov Minsk

Figure 2a. Height of boys age 4-15 by year of birthas a percentile of US standards

05

1015

2025

3035

4045

5055

60Pe

rcen

tile

1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985Year of birth

Tashkent Frunze

Figure 2b. Height of boys age 4-15 by year of birthas a percentile of US standards

Height of children in urban centers of the RSFSRby year of birth as a percentile of U.S. standards, boys age 9

16

6

16 17

6

22

31

16

20284051

5963

64

841828

391923

263839

5

7

2161

82

19

1956586263

72

51

7210

34

35

596

3641

49

515151

58

84

82

2

30

53

70

72

25

75

16

6262726

1319

49

56

63

64

756

6

27

43

78

65

53

83

8510

42

8716

41

63

18

306

37

3979

82

2062

328

36

52

56

32 79

5

14

3

18

2855

62

64

16

354152

56

05

1015

2025

3035

4045

5055

60Pe

rcen

tile

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985Year of birth

Boys age 9

Is This Real? Soviet Anthropometric Data, cont.

• Corroborating evidence: Average stature of male military recruits born 1906 – 1910 was 167.5 cm, the 8th percentile of the U.S. height standard for 18-year old boys

• Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, 1994 – 2004:

– Measurement of adult height (not self-reported) by exact date of birth

– 5,476 men and 5,771 women age 22 – 55 (birth years 1939 – 1982)

– Problems: small sample; does not cover whole period of interest

(2) Adult height data:

Male and female adult height by exact date of birth (RLMS),

ages 22 - 55

158

159

160

161

162

163

164

165

166

Wom

en

169

170

171

172

173

174

175

176

177

Men

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985Year of birth

Men Women

Other Evidence

(1) Infant mortality rates:

– Very high pre-WWII

– Significant decline 1945 – 1970

– No improvement 1970 – 1980, with worsening between 1970 and 1975

010

020

030

0D

eath

s pe

r 10

00 b

irth

s

1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Official IMR Estimated IMR

Figure 7. Infant Mortality Rate, Russian Republic

Infant mortality rates in Russia

15

20

25

30

35

40

De

ath

s p

er

10

00

bir

ths

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989

Urban Rural

37

87

58

531 40

166358

7

64

7

40

37

63

84

3117

83

53

6

51

287

40

64

83

17

72

23

6

87

63

40

37

39

37

16

83

8558

1

376

59

84

643

16

72

87

36

30

36

21

1655

655

21

59 7575

1

39

8232

1626

35

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

Bir

thw

eigh

t, gr

ams

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Figure 5a. Birthweight of urban boys by year of birth,RSFSR republics

Other Evidence, cont.

(1) Life expectancy at birth:

– Substantial increases between 1940 and early 1960s; nearly equal to that of U.S. by 1965

– Worsening life expectancy began around 1965

– By 1980: gap between Russian and U.S. life expectancy:• 8.5 years for men• 4.3 years for women

– Occurred in all other USSR republics

2030

4050

6070

80L

ife

expe

ctan

cy a

t bir

th

1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Russia Russia (estimated) U.S.

Source: see Appendix 1.

Figure 9a. Life Expectancy at Birth, Men, RSFSR and U.S.

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

19581960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

U.S.

Belarus

Russia

Lithuania

Estonia

Ukraine

Male Life Expectancy at Birth, 1958 - 2001

U.S.

Russia

Belarus

Lithuania

Estonia

Ukraine

Inequality in stature: how were the gainsdistributed across the population?

1939 - 1982 1945 - 1970 1971 - 1982

Men Women Men Women Men Women

10th percentile .114 (.013)

.090 (.012)

.137 (.016)

.099 (.022)

.140 (.122)

.135 (.069)

Median .106 (.009)

.089 (.009)

.104 (.015)

.096 (.013)

.101 (.082)

0.00 (.069)

90th percentile .126 (.012)

.113 (.009)

.130 (.022)

.130 (.014)

.186 (.131)

-.086 (.142)

N 5,475 5,764 3,895 4,131 1,235 1,239

Coefficients from regressions of height on exact date of birth, converted into cm. Bold

coefficients are statistically significant at the 1 percent level or less. Bootstrapped SEs.

.04

.06

.08

.1.1

2.1

4.1

6.1

8.2

Ann

ual g

row

th in

cm

1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 99Percentile of height distribution

Men Women

year of birth 1939 - 1982Fig. 8 Annual growth by percentile of the height distribution

What caused the improvement and subsequent stagnation in population health status?

1. Possible explanations for improvement:

• Development and expansion of national health care system; particularly effective at controlling infectious diseases

• Significant increases in female education

• Improvement in caloric and nutrient content of the food supply

• Urbanization (clean water, sewers, heat, etc.)

Possible causes, cont.

2. Possible explanations for stagnation/decline:

• Changes in diet; poor agricultural harvests

• Increase in alcohol consumption

• Increase in military expenditures crowding out domestic consumption

• Increased macroeconomic imbalances leading to decreased availability of consumer goods

Table 5. Correlates of Adult Stature:RLMS Results, Individuals Born 1939 - 1982 (Age 22 - 55)

Dependent variable: height in cm

A. Men

Independentvariables:

Men, non-migrants

Abortion legal in yearof birth (1 = yes)

8.13(1.44)

8.10(2.68)

5.81(2.67)

6.37(2.72)

–

Born during WWII 2.34(1.43)

4.14(3.05)

– – –

Doctors per capita inyear and region ofbirth

– – .045(.032)

– –

Population density inyear and region ofbirth

– – – .003(.002)

–

Avg. monthly wage inyear and region ofbirth

– – – – -.975(1.69)

Higher education 1.96(.337)

1.61(.541)

1.74(.545)

1.63(.621)

1.81(.619)

N 5476 2198 2015 1857 1688

R2 .10 .10 .08 .08 .07

B. Women

Independent variables: Women, non-migrants

Abortion legal in yearof birth (1 = yes)

4.55(1.26)

4.23(1.49)

-.219 (1.80)

-.288(1.19)

–

Born during WWII .446(1.15)

-2.84(2.74)

– – –

Doctors per cap. inyear and region ofbirth

– – .068(.023)

– –

Population density inyear and region ofbirth

– – – .003(.002)

–

Avg. monthly wage inyear and region ofbirth

– – – – 1.34(1.05)

Higher education 1.16(.249)

1.32(.409)

1.46(.435)

1.63(.484)

1.25(.531)

N 5771 2199 1977 1817 1651

R2 .08 .12 .10 .10 .09

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Doctors per capita

-.164

(.096)

-- -.023

(.121)

-.046

(.103)

Pop. density -- .014

(.141)

-- --

% pop. w/>sec. ed.

-- -- -.489

(.278)

-.550

(.321)

Alcohol cons. per cap.

-- -- -- -.032

(.065)

N

R2

216

.74

231

.74

216

.75

175

.74

Correlates of log change in infant mortality rates,RSFSR regions, 1959 – 1989 (stacked)

Other controls: crude birth rate; large region; decade (1970-1979, 1980-1989;1959 – 1970 is omitted decade).

010

2030

4050

Perc

entil

e

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

Per

capi

ta d

aily

cal

orie

s

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Year of birth

Per capita daily calories Moscow St. Petersburg

Source: see Appendix 1.

Figure 8a. Calories and child stature in Moscowand St. Petersburg

010

2030

4050

Perc

entil

e

200

400

600

800

1000

Per

capi

ta d

aily

cal

orie

s, a

nim

al s

ourc

es

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Year of birth

Per capita daily calories, animal sources Moscow St. Petersburg

Source: see Appendix 1.

Figure 8b. Calories from animal sources and child staturein Moscow and St. Petersburg

Conclusion: Did the standard of living rise or fall in the Soviet Union in the postwar period?

• Given poor quality of GNP data, trends portrayed by stature and death rates may be more believable than GNP growth

• Conventional measures of GNP growth and consumption indicate a long, upward climb in living standards 1950-1989

• Corroborated for 1950 – 1970 by increasing child and adult heights, declining IMR and rising life expectancy at birth

Conclusion, cont.

• But evidence of deteriorating living conditions in the mid- to late-1960s: – declining male life expectancy – rising infant mortality, even in regions with reliable vital event data– stagnation or decrease in child heights; – slight decline or stagnation in height of men and women born in

early 1970s

• Underlying reasons for these trends are inconclusive, but may include:– expansion of national health system – increased education – declining availability of consumer goods – increased alcohol consumption

Implications and further research

• More data on food and alcohol consumption, tobacco use

• Effect of abortion legalization on child and parent/adult outcomes

• Effect of Chernobyl on child well-being

• Are deteriorating living conditions of the 1970s related to current high mortality levels in Russia?