beyond maps forum 2012 keynote
DESCRIPTION
Keynote presentation from the Beyond Maps Forum, hosted by Sensis in Melbourne Australia. March 2012. Looking at trends in mobile location and the implications for the automotive market.TRANSCRIPT
Is the Future Here Already?
Marc PrioleauPrioleau Advisors
www.prioleauadv.com
“The future has already arrived. It's just not evenly distributed yet.”
William Gibson
Agenda• Some History• My Hypothesis• The Big Trends• Implications• M&A in the Location Space
“The K-Mart of Navigation”
• Navigation, Circa 1995• Delco Telepath 100• “The system is
rudimentary”Gary Dickson
President, DelcoMaster of Understatement
Evolution of Capabilities
Location (GPS)
Digital Maps
Data Networks
SmartPhones/App Stores
Tablets
20121995 2000 2005 2010
Evolution of Mobile Location
Navigation
Local Search
Location Advertising
Social-Location
Location Context
20121995 2000 2005 2010
Hypothesis• The Mobile experience is driving the User Expectations• User expectations will drive user behavior, regardless of
attempts to “manage” that behavior• Therefore, the in-car experience will be impacted by the core
aspects of mobile…• Or else people will drive with smartphones on their knee…
So how will Search, Social and Location Context impact the in-vehicle experience?
Why Does it Matter?• New business models disrupt established
models
Navigation
Local Search
Location Advertising
Social-Location
Location Context
20121995 2000 2005 2010
Upfront sellSubscription
Online Local Search Marketing
LoyaltyFoot traffic
Online engagement
Not Covering• Passenger Infotainment• Car-to-infrastructure• Vehicle CRM• Car-to-car Communications• Specific Implementations
Local Search• Most highly monetized
online revenue• Online local search has
disrupted off-line
• Well adopted, evolving merchant models
• Penetrating into most Connected Car concepts
Ads in cars?• Appropriate?• Strong sentiment that ads
may not be relevant while driving
• Feasible?• Can it drive new business
models?• My Guess: Inevitable
Blurring of Desktop and Mobile• Online behavior is no longer segmented into “mobile”
behaviors and “desktop” behaviors• Can search, find, research, compare, respond, purchase,
discuss…equally well on Mobile and Desktop.
• Implication: What I saw on my desktop, I may buy off my mobile
• Where does the vehicle fit into this?
Cost
(CPM
)
Reach
Location-Based Advertising• Spending on on-line
(hyper-)local advertising remains defiantly small
• Locations Services and Brands talking past each other
The Location Ad Divide
Reach vs Radius (& Relevance)• Conversation with
Mobile Ad company:• Importance of location:
8 out of 10• Understanding of
Location: 4 out of 10
Reac
h
Radius (Relevance-1)
Auto Dealer
Coffee Shop
New Category: Driving Search• Search while driving = high relevance
• Intent• Immediacy• Proximity
• Local search• Radius not as relevant• Why not Headlight: Along route• Why not Predictive: Tied into
Diary/PIM
Integration of Real Time Content• Traffic Information• Parking Availability• Speed Cameras• Real-Time Offers• Slack Time Marketing
• Loyalty Programs
New Idea: The Mobile Geofence
Static Geofence:
• Geofence around static object
• Action triggered when mobile detected in static geofence
Mobile Geofence:
• Geofence around Mobile (auto)
• Triggers controled by mobile
• Better control of privacy, preferences, timing
Search becoming Social
Search
Travel
Reviews
Social Influence
• Social is no longer a discreet segment of online
• Every aspect of Online will have a social component• Communication• Search• Reviews• Marketing• Buying/eCommerce
Social Structure
• Social is evolving around major “Engagement Platforms” plus many specialized apps
• Building on the engagement platform means:• Faster, cheaper distribution• Less control over the business
model
Which Social Network?
• All have slightly different aspects
• Not all will succeed• Some may be just
proving a market
• Google + is TBD
Facebook OpenGraph: More than LikesPLACE
• OpenGraph allows application developers tie directly into the 800+M Users in the Facebook Social Graph
• Push is on for new Verbs: More specific descriptors of what friends are doing
Last Week from Facebook
We are also launching APIs to allow applications to read this data. With permission, it will allow any application that a person is interacting with to access the places that that person and their friends have visited. This will allow travel apps to create trip suggestions based on vacations taken by your friends or suggest customized experiences to people based on their current location. A person arriving in a new city can get restaurant suggestions, hotel recommendations, and advice on the best gyms to use based on the places their friends in the area frequent to make the experience easier.
Implications of Social for Auto• Not about checking Facebook
while driving• Social recommendations in
“Driving Search”• What verbs will be important
in the driving experience?• Visiting, touring, looking for…
• Crowd-sourced data for Traffic, usage, lines, etc.
Twitter?• Not what you had for breakfast• Is real-time Micro-Publishing
about:• Events• Traffic/Accidents• Offers• Sights
• Twitter needs better location filtering
The Maligned Check-In• Foursquare pioneered the
check-in• Semi-Interesting social gesture• Very interesting engagement
mechanism• Problem: Check-In fatigue• Evolution: Auto Check-In
Context: Personalization• Mobile phones are ground zero
for online personalization• Apps• Contacts• Calendar• Communications
• Integration of phone with vehicle now underway in several ways
Phones track location…a lot
Habits• Habits involve:
• Mobile Phone use is driving the habits
Source: MIT Brain & Cognitive Sciences Dept.
Brain Activity
• Trigger
• Habit
• Reward
Don’t Believe Me?
Five Behavior Cues• Time of day• Emotional State• Other People• Preceding event and…..(drum roll please)• LOCATION
Local Context• Location is one of Five Key Behavioral Cues• Location helps define:• Behavior/habits• Lifestyle• Demographics• “Personal Map”• Unusual Events
Let’s Be Social Scientists….
Marc’s Last 30 DaysMarc is:• From California• In Telecom• Cheap• A Swiss Air Traveler
High Concentration
Barcelona26Feb-1Mar
Zurich26Feb & 1 Mar
24 Comercio Restaurant
Marc’s Last 30 DaysMarc is:• From California• In Telecom• Cheap• A Swiss Air traveler• From SF Bay Area• A skier 1000’s of points
Squaw Valley11-12 Feb
Marc’s Last 30 DaysMarc is:• From California• In Telecom• Cheap• A Swiss Air traveler• From SF Bay Area• A skier• From Palo Alto• Likes to get coffee on
University Ave• A train rider
1000’s of pointsUniversity Ave
Train Station
Marc’s Last 30 DaysMarc is:• From California• In Telecom• Cheap• A Swiss Air traveler• From SF Bay Area• A skier• From Palo Alto• Likes to get coffee on
University Ave• A train rider• In downtown SF two
days/week for work
Downtown San Francisco,
Mon, Weds, 8-6
Which would you try to sell Marc?
Mani-Pedi Ski Vacation
Business Models
Do you want to:• Sell Vehicles• Build Brand Loyalty• Sell Auto Electronics• Sell Services/Subscriptions• Sell Local advertising
?
Key for Future: Partnerships
• Competition is driving integrated solutions
• Many parts are needed• They will not self-assemble• Partnerships need to be
meaningful, focused on Big Picture
M&A in the Location Business
• 40-50 M&A Transactions/Year since 2007
• Many “Acqui-Hires”• A Few Mercy Killings• Relatively Few Big Deals
Market does not yet have Pattern Recognition
Source: Location Technology M&A Project
$1.7B$3.0B
$.5B$3.5B
$15B
Look at the Big Picture
• Think of the bounds of the problem you solve
• What Parts:• Do you have now?• Can you develop?• Should you partner for?• Should you acquire
• Have a plan!