Biases, Brains, and Decision Making

Download Biases, Brains, and Decision Making

Post on 10-Jan-2016




3 download

Embed Size (px)


Biases, Brains, and Decision Making. Lawyers are Lousy Decision-Makers. Wrong 50% of the time. - $75,000. Wrong 30% of the time. - $1,400,000. Whats Going On?. The modern human brain is unchanged from 150,000 years ago. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


Biases, Brains, and Decision Making

Biases, Brains, and Decision MakingLawyers are Lousy Decision-MakersWrong 50% of the time-$75,000Wrong 30% of the time-$1,400,000Whats Going On?

The human brain evolved to solve problems while highly mobile in extreme weather conditions and in a dangerous environmentThe modern human brain is unchanged from 150,000 years ago.

Two Decision Making SystemsSystem 1System 2EffortlessImpulsiveIntuitiveAutomaticPre-consciousEffortful, painfulResists impulsivityCapable of reasoningCautiousConscious17 x 24408Bananas VomitThe mere conjunction of two words creates a reality

Most associative processing is unconsciousPregnant ManAsk someone to make up a story on the spot

11primes individualismreduces cooperationreluctance to be with others.

Associative memory is stimulated but not quite activatedDefine primingActions and emotions can be primed by events outside of conscious awareness

12Jumping off the cliff of conclusions

Efficient when likelihood of being right is high, risk of error is low, and if the jump saves time and effortDangerous when the situation is unfamiliar, stakes are high, and no time to collect more informationWhen uncertain, System 1 bets on an answer.Bets are guided by experienceRecent events have the most weight in interpretationDoes not consider or keep in mind alternatives-no conscious doubtUnderstanding a statement begins with an attempt to believe itWe basically accept statements as true, then decide whether to unbelieve it.Initial attempt at interpretation is System 1-best possible construction of the situation.Unbelieving is an operation of System 2When System 2 is otherwise engaged, we will believe almost anythingSystem 2 can be lazy, tired, distracted

13Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations.What is most likely?Linda is a bank tellerLinda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement

System 2 is effortfuland for many people ...

At bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long would it take 100 machines to make 100 widgets?

In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half the lake?The Laziness of System 217

System 2 is easily derailedLoss of self control can be caused by:avoiding thought of white bearsinhibiting the emotional response to a stirring filmmaking a series of choices that involve conflicttrying to impress othersresponding kindly to a partner's bad behaviorMental depletion can be caused by:deviating from a dietoverspending on impulsive purchasesreacting aggressively to provocationperforming poorly in cognitive tasks and logical decision-making

Add Gorilla dip here20What is a cognitive bias?Its a decision-making short cutIt is a System 1 processIts typically habitualIt has emotional salienceIt operates outside of consciousnessIt is extremely usefulIt has a very dark sideThe following three numbers conform to some rule:2, 4, 6Your job is to figure out the rule.8, 10, 12

22, 24, 26

100, 102, 104

What is the rule?Increasing integers divisible by 2?Wrong.

The correct answer was:

Any three increasing integers.30This is a classic example of the confirmation bias.2, 4, 68, 10, 1222, 24, 26100, 102, 104

All we did is seek out confirmation for what we already believed.Is Sam friendly?Is Sam unfriendly?Different instances of Sams behavior will come to mind than if asked Is Sam unfriendly?System 1 engages in a positive test strategyit seeks data compatible with the beliefs we currently holdFavors uncritical acceptance and exaggeration of the likelihood of extreme and improbable events.

32What is the difference between:We will win this lawsuit.We will defend this lawsuit.We will win this lawsuit.What does this statement mean if it were true?Do we choose to believe or unbelieve it?System 1 assumes the statement is true and looks for information to confirm iteasy and effortless.Unbelieving is an operation of System 2, which is effortful and painful.

They are negotiating in bad faith

Step 1Label the emotion.You might sayYou are frustrated.You are angry.You feel disrespected.Step 2Ask a motivational question.You might askWhat were your expectations?What is the other side thinking?What can we do to elicit a different response?De-Escalate

Engage System 2Some


View more >