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Richard J. Gilmartin, Vice President and Investment Director Wellington Management Company, LLP Thomas J. Felago, CFA, Vice President, Defined Contribution Solutions Wellington Management Company, LLP Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks

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Page 1: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Richard J. Gilmartin,

Vice President and Investment Director

Wellington Management Company, LLP

Thomas J. Felago, CFA,

Vice President, Defined Contribution Solutions

Wellington Management Company, LLP

Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks

Page 2: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Role of fixed income in defined contribution

Diversifier

Liquidity

Capital preservation

Income/return

Page 3: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Natural resource equities

TIPS

Equities

Nominal government bonds

Think Function, Not FormDiversification across economic environments – important for DC participants

For illustrative purposes only Source: Wellington Management

Rising

Growth

Falling

Relative performance by economic environment

Falling RisingInflation

Absolute return/active risk

Page 4: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Limited access to non-US bonds

Average number of investment options in DC plan menus = 16Average number of fixed income funds = 2-3

70.4%40.0%

71.1%

57.8%

13.3%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Stable Value Money Market Active U.S.Bond

Passive U.S.Bond

InternationalBond

Percentage of 401(k) and Profit Sharing Plans Offering, 2012 Plan Year

For plans with 5,000+ participants

Source: Plan Sponsor Council of America's 56th Annual Survey of Profit Sharing and 401(k) Plans

4

Page 5: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

A challenging reality in fixed income today

US Aggregate presents challenges for fixed income investors

Global exposure increases diversification and broadens opportunity set

Existing global benchmarks may not be optimally structured

Time to consider a new approach?

5

Page 6: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Concentrated exposure to US government

1US Treasuries, US Agencies, US Agency MBS-passthroughsSource: Barclays

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

28 Feburary 2014

% of US government exposure1 – Barclays US Agg. Bond Index

US Govt Other

Page 7: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Muted outlook for US Aggregate returns

11976 – 2012 Barclays US Aggregate Bond, 1973 –1975 Barclays US Govt/Corp Bond, 1960 –1972 Ibbotson US IntmGovt Bond2Yield-to-Maturity of the Barclays US Aggregate Bond IndexSources: Barclays, Ibbotson 7

March 20142

Page 8: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

U.S. bonds17%

Intl. bonds19%

U.S. equities

30%

Intl. equities

34%

May 2000

U.S. bonds23%

U.S. equities

21%Intl.

equities

22%

Intl. bonds34%

May 2013U.S. stocks are represented by the MSCI US Broad Market Index. International stocks are represented by the MSCI All Country World ex USA Investable Market Index. U.S. bonds are represented by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. International bonds are represented by the Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index plus the Barclays Global Emerging Markets Index.

Data as of 31 May 2013 I Sources: MSCI, Barclays,Vanguard

Non-U.S. bonds have grown significantly

Global investable market components 2000 vs. 2013 (%)

8

Page 9: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

US bond marketsNarrower and dominated by credit sectors

131 August 2013 | 2Weighted average of US Treasury and Government-Related sectors of the Barclays US Aggregate | Source: Barclays 9

Page 10: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Global bond marketsWide dispersion offers significant upside relative to US bonds

131 August 2013 | Source: Barclays | Indexes are unmanaged and not available for direct investment

10

Page 11: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Risk-adjusted returns favorable for global bonds

Global Aggregate US AggregateHedged1

Return 6.48% 6.62%

Risk 3.06% 3.73%

Sharpe Ratio 0.79 0.69

January 1990 – July 2013

1The Barclays Global Aggregate Index was created in 1999, with index history backfilled to January 1, 1990 .Sources: Barclays, Wellington Management 11

Page 12: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Challenges with fixed income benchmarksConcentration risk is significant

As of 31 January 2014. Sources: Barclays, Wellington Management 12

Industry concentrationsBarclays US Corporate 1 – 5

year Index

Banking

Country concentrationsBarclays Global Government

Japan US

Currency concentrationsBarclays Global Aggregate

Corporate Index

US Dollar Euro

Page 13: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Does GDP weighting make more sense?

Sources: Barclays, Wellington Management As of 31 December 2012 13

Page 14: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

GDP weighted has slightly outperformed over past decade

Sources: Barclays, Wellington Management

14

Page 15: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

No correlation between GDP growth and sovereign bond performance

1For all countries in the Barclays Global Treasury Index. Annual return series from 1999 to 2012. Sources: Barclays (Market Cap), Wellington Management, and Factset(GDP)

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Page 16: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Benefits of smart diversification

1Assume 5-year duration for each country

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Page 17: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Move away from benchmarks, broaden the opportunity set

Smarter risk-balanced global sovereign exposure + specialized opportunistic sources of return can capture inefficiencies and provide consistent total return

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Role of fixed income in DC

Diversifier

Liquidity

Capital preservation

Income/return

Page 18: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

EM currenciesEM ILBs

High – quality ILBs

Corporate SpreadsHigh Yield

IG corporates Nominal gov’t bonds

Municipal bonds

Think Function, Not FormTake advantage of fixed income’s broad reach

For illustrative purposes only Source: Wellington Management

Rising

Growth

Falling

Relative performance by economic environment

Falling RisingInflation18

Bank loansEMD

Absolute return/active risk

Page 19: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Asset Allocation Strategies Group Disclosure

The information contained herein reflects the investment thinking of one or more members of the Asset Allocation Strategies Group as it pertains to a requested topic and may be influenced by a client or prospect’s specific investment objective and other factors. It does not represent a “firm view” and any recommendations presented in the context of this presentation may differ from positions held in some Asset Allocation Strategies Group portfolios, including the portfolios managed by the portfolio manager(s) giving this consultative advice. Any views expressed herein are those of the author(s) as of the date indicated, are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice.

As of March 2014

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Page 20: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

Wellington Management Company llp is an independently owned investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and commodity trading advisor registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission that, along with its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively, Wellington Management), provides investment management and investment advisory services to institutions around the world. Located in Boston, Massachusetts, Wellington Management also has offices in Chicago, Illinois; Radnor, Pennsylvania; San Francisco, California; Beijing; Frankfurt; Hong Kong; London; Singapore; Sydney; and Tokyo.

This material is prepared for, and authorized for internal use by, designated institutional and professional investors and their consultants or for such other use as may be authorized by Wellington Management. This material and/or its contents are current at the time of writing and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the express written consent of Wellington Management. This material is not intended to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase shares or other securities. Investors should always obtain and read an up-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment manager or to invest in a fund. Any views expressed herein are those of the author(s), are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients.

In the UK, this material is provided by Wellington Management International Limited (WMIL), a firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This material is directed only at persons (Relevant Persons) who are classified as eligible counterparties or professional clients under the rules of the FCA. This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons. Any investment or investment service to which this material relates is available only to Relevant Persons and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons.

In Germany, this material is provided by Wellington Management International Limited, Niederlassung Deutschland, the German branch of WMIL, which is authorized and regulated by the FCA and in respect of certain aspects of its activities by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin). This material is directed only at persons (Relevant Persons) who are classified as eligible counterparties or professional clients under the German Securities Trading Act. This material does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation to invest in financial instruments or financial analysis within the meaning of Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act. It does not meet all legal requirements designed to guarantee the independence of financial analyses and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the publication of financial analyses. This material does not constitute a prospectus for the purposes of the German Investment Fund Act, the German Securities Sales Prospectus Act or the German Securities Prospectus Act.

As of August 2013 20

Disclosure

Page 21: Bonds Without Borders or Benchmarks - P&I EVENTS...TIPS Equities Nominal government bonds Think Function, Not Form ... Benefits of smart diversification 1Assume 5-year duration for

In Hong Kong, this material is provided to you by Wellington Global Investment Management Limited (WGIM), a corporation licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities), and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities, on the basis that you are a Professional Investor as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance. By accepting this material you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person. WGIM is also registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

In Singapore, this material is provided for your use only by Wellington International Management Company Pte Ltd (WIM) (Registration Number 199504987R), regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore with a Capital Markets Services Licence to conduct fund management activities. By accepting this material you represent that you are a non-retail investor and that you will not copy, distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person.

In Australia, Wellington International Management Company Pte Ltd (WIM) has authorised the issue of this material for use solely by wholesale clients (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). By accepting this material, you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person. Wellington Management Company, llp is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence (AFSL) under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services, in reliance on class order 03/1100, a copy of which may be obtained at the web site of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, http://www.asic.gov.au. The class order exempts a registered investment adviser regulated by the SEC, among others, from the need to hold an AFSL for financial services provided to Australian wholesale clients on certain conditions. Financial services provided by Wellington Management Company, llp are regulated by the SEC under the laws and regulatory requirements of the United States, which are different from the laws applying in Australia.

In Japan, Wellington International Management Company Pte Ltd (WIM) has been registered as a Financial Instruments Firm with registered number: Director General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-Sho) Number 428. WIM is a member of the Japan Investment Advisers Association (JIAA) and the Investment Trusts Association, Japan (ITA). WMIL, WGIM, and WIM are also registered as investment advisers with the SEC; however, they will comply with the substantive provisions of the US Investment Advisers Act only with respect to their US clients.

©2014 Wellington Management Company llp. All rights reserved.

As of August 2013

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Disclosure (continued)