borderplex business barometer, volume 3, number 4
TRANSCRIPT
University of Texas at El PasoDigitalCommons@UTEP
Border Region Modeling Project Economics and Finance Department
4-2019
Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3,Number 4Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.University of Texas at El Paso, [email protected]
Aaron NazarianUniversity of Texas at El Paso, [email protected]
Steven L. FullertonUniversity of Texas at El Paso, [email protected]
Sergio OlivasUniversity of Texas at El Paso, [email protected]
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This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Economics and Finance Department at DigitalCommons@UTEP. It has been acceptedfor inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UTEP. For more information, please [email protected].
Recommended CitationFullerton, Thomas M. Jr.; Nazarian, Aaron; Fullerton, Steven L.; and Olivas, Sergio, "Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3,Number 4" (2019). Border Region Modeling Project. 76.https://digitalcommons.utep.edu/border_region/76
Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 4 Border Logistical Nightmares The El Paso Metropolitan Business Cycle Index continued to increase at a steady pace in March. Reflective of favorable conditions exhibited by the business cycle monitor, the El Paso Household Economic Stress Index fell to 1.7 in February. That marks the first time since August 2007 that this measure has gone below 2.0. At 4.3 percent, the February El Paso County unemployment rate is below its year‐ago level. Encouragingly, the number of El Paso County supplemental nutrition assistance program (SNAP or food stamp) enrollments also fell on a year‐over‐year basis, again, in March. First quarter El Paso median housing prices remained above year‐ago levels in January, February, and March, with the latter month coming in at $157,950. Months of housing inventory have stayed below 4.0 months for five consecutive months, housing prices, well below the average 6.9 figure that has prevailed from 2006 to the present. If the supply of units for sale continues to be this tight, median housing prices are likely to increase further. El Paso gasoline prices rose to $2.35 in March, and additional price increases are expected this summer. The Doña Ana County unemployment rate inched above year‐ago levels during the first quarter. The culprit is decelerating employment growth in commerce, business services, and the public sector. Despite slightly higher unemployment rates, Las Cruces Area SNAP enrollments have held steady and finished February at 27,155. The peso‐per‐dollar nominal exchange rate continued to oscillate near the P/$ 19.20 mark throughout the first quarter. Although the Borderplex restaurant price ratio inched above first quarter 2018 levels, it continues to lag the currency market by more than 40 percent. Historically, that size of a gap implies that the peso is undervalued and/or the dollar is overvalued. Perhaps not surprisingly, the real exchange rate index continued to move sideways in recent months. Personal vehicle flows across the international bridges nosedived below the 1.0 million mark in February. Personnel re‐assignments related to Central American migrant caravan arrivals, plus White House threats to close the border contributed to this unexpected downturn. Northbound pedestrian traffic similarly plummeted to 381.2 thousand in February, the lowest volume of foot‐borne entrants via the ports of entry in nearly two decades. Although badly snarled by all of administrative disruptions, the February 2019 volume of cross‐border cargo traffic increased by 5.5 percent relative to the same month in 2018. Total trade through the El Paso Customs district also grew in February. With durable goods orders still growing, further trade expansion this quarter is also likely through the El Paso district.
Export‐oriented manufacturing employment in Ciudad Juarez stood at 280,674 in January 2019, a 4.9 percent increase relative to the same month in 2018. Through December 2018, the Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index was six percentage points higher, on average, in 2018 relative to 2017. The total value of construction in the state of Chihuahua began the year on a relatively high note but has leveled out since then. That series is somewhat volatile and additional growth should occur in future months, barring, of course, any national economics declines in the United States or Mexico.
April 2019
Border Region Modeling Project Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr.
Aaron Nazarian Steven L. Fullerton Sergio Olivas Jr.
Department of Economics & Finance College of Business Administration
University of Texas at El Paso
Mailing Address Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics & Finance
500 West University Avenue El Paso, TX 79968-0543
Physical Address
College of Business Administration, Room 325 University of Texas at El Paso
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Telephone
915-747-7747 915-747-7775
Fax
915-747-6282
Website For more information about the Border Region
Modeling Project (click here)
Border Commerce & Economics
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
220
225
230
235
240
Sea
sonal
ly A
dju
sted
Index
(O
ctober
1980 =
100)
Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso
2018 2019
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
190
200
210
220
230
240
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sea
sonal
ly A
dju
sted
Index
(O
ctober
1980 =
100)
Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso
Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
0
1
2
3
4
5
Index
El Paso Household Economic Stress Index
2018 2019
Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Index
El Paso Household Economic Stress Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3
4
5
6
Unem
plo
ym
ent
Rat
e (N
ot
Sea
sonal
ly A
dju
sted
)El Paso County Unemployment Rate
2018 2019
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Unem
plo
ym
ent
Rat
e (N
ot
Sea
sonal
ly A
dju
sted
)El Paso County Unemployment Rate
Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
185,000
190,000
Num
ber
of
SN
AP
Rec
ipie
nts
El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment
2018 2019
Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission
Starting in September, 2014, the number of SNAP recipients is recorded for the end of each month.
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Num
ber
of
SN
AP
Rec
ipie
nts
El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
$135,000
$140,000
$145,000
$150,000
$155,000
$160,000
$165,000
Nom
inal
Pri
ceEl Paso Median Housing Prices
2018 2019
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nom
inal
Pri
ceEl Paso Median Housing Prices
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Month
sMonths of Housing Inventory for El Paso
2018 2019
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Month
sMonths of Housing Inventory for El Paso
Source: GasBuddy.com
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Nom
inal
Pri
ce (
Doll
ars
per
Gal
lon)
El Paso Gasoline Prices
2018 2019
Source: GasBuddy.com
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nom
inal
Pri
ce (
Doll
ars
per
Gal
lon)
El Paso Gasoline Prices
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Unem
plo
ym
ent
Rat
e (N
ot
Sea
sonal
ly A
dju
sted
)Doña Ana County Unemployment Rate
2018 2019
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Unem
plo
ym
ent
Rat
e (N
ot
Sea
sonal
ly A
dju
sted
)Doña Ana County Unemployment Rate
Source: New Mexico Human Services Department
26,000
29,000
32,000
35,000
Num
ber
of
SN
AP
Cas
esLas Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases
2018 2019
Source: New Mexico Human Services Department
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Num
ber
of
SN
AP
Cas
esLas Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases
Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Pes
os
per
Doll
arRestaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate
2018 Restaurant Price Ratio 2019 Restaurant Price Ratio
2018 Nominal Exchange Rate 2019 Nominal Exchange Rate
Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico
8
12
16
20
24
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Pes
os
per
Doll
arRestaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate
Price Ratio Exchange Rate
Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
110
120
130
140
150
Index
(M
arch
1997 =
100)
Real Peso-per-Dollar Exchange Rate Index
2018 2019
Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
70
90
110
130
150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Index
(M
arch
1997 =
100)
Real Peso-per-Dollar Exchange Rate Index
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
Num
ber
of
Veh
icle
sPersonal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso
2018 2019
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Num
ber
of
Veh
icle
sPersonal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Num
ber
of
Ped
estr
ians
Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to
El Paso
2018 2019
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Num
ber
of
Ped
estr
ians
Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to
El Paso
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Num
ber
of
Car
go T
ruck
sCargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to
El Paso
2018 2019
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Num
ber
of
Car
go T
ruck
sCargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to
El Paso
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
$11,000
Tota
l T
rade
(Ex
port
s +
Im
port
s) i
n M
illi
ons
of
Nom
inal
Doll
ars
Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District
2018 2019
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tota
l T
rade
(Ex
port
s +
Im
port
s) i
n M
illi
ons
of
Nom
inal
Doll
ars
Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
Tota
l T
rade
in M
illi
ons
of
1982 D
oll
ars
Real Total Trade through
the El Paso Customs District
2018 2019
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tota
l T
rade
in M
illi
ons
of
1982 D
oll
ars
Real Total Trade through
the El Paso Customs District
Source: INEGI
240,000
250,000
260,000
270,000
280,000
290,000
Num
ber
of
Jobs
Export-Oriented Manufacturing
Employment in Ciudad Juárez
2017 2018
Source: INEGI
140,000
170,000
200,000
230,000
260,000
290,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Num
ber
of
Jobs
Export-Oriented Manufacturing
Employment in Ciudad Juárez
Source: Banco de México
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Index
(R
ange:
0 -
100)
Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index
2017 2018
Source: Banco de México
30
40
50
60
70
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index
(R
ange:
0 -
100)
Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index
Source: INEGI
100
110
120
130
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
Index
(2008=
100)
Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua
2017 2018
Source: INEGI
60
80
100
120
140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index
(2008 =
100)
Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua
Source: INEGI
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Thousa
nds
of
June
2012 P
esos
Total Value of Construction in
the State of Chihuahua
2017 2018
Source: INEGI
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Thousa
nds
of
June
2012 P
esos
Total Value of Construction in
the State of Chihuahua
Source: INEGI
100.00
125.00
150.00
175.00
200.00
225.00
Index
(200
8 =
100)
Real Retail Activity Index for
the State of Chihuahua
2017 2018
Source: INEGI
75.00
100.00
125.00
150.00
175.00
200.00
225.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index
(2008=
100)
Real Retail Activity Index for
the State of Chihuahua
University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio, President John Wiebe, Acting Provost
Roberto Osegueda, Vice President for Research
UTEP College of Business Administration Stephen Crites, Interim Dean
Fernando Jiménez, Associate Dean Erik Devos, Associate Dean
Tim Roth, Templeton Professor of Banking & Economics
UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Corporate and Institutional Sponsors: El Paso Water
Hunt Communities UTEP College of Business Administration UTEP Department of Economics & Finance
UTEP Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade
Borderplex Business Barometer is a monthly publication of the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP), a research unit within the Department of Economics & Finance at the College of Business Administration of The University of Texas at El Paso. BRMP information is available at: http://academics.utep.edu/border. For
additional information, contact the Border Region Modeling Project ‐ CBA 236, UTEP Department of Economics & Finance, 500 West University Avenue, El Paso, TX 79968‐0543, USA, (915) 747‐7775.