business sweden russia 2016 - business climate survey final report
TRANSCRIPT
Andreas Giallourakis
Trade Commissioner Russia
I am glad to present this report on the business climate in Russia. We look back at a
dramatic 2015 with significant volatility, uncertainty, challenges, political turbulence and
few reasons for positive outlooks. The Rouble has had a dramatic year with sharp
changes. The oil price finished the year on a 10-year low. Most of you reading this report
are working with business in Russia. You all have your own impressions and opinions
about the current state and direction of the Russian economy.
What is presented in this report is an aggregated picture of the Russian market from the
point of view of the Swedish business community engaged in Russia. We often read
forecasts and reports based on statistics and macro indicators. I believe this report
constitutes in important complement in the decision-making process by offering insights
from those with boots on the ground.
There are currently more than 350 Swedish subsidiaries in Russia. Business Sweden has
been in Russia since 1994 and has in the meantime accumulated a substantial body of
knowledge about the Russian market. We engage in discussions with a multitude of
Swedish companies on a daily basis and advice on strategic issues concerning their
operations and approach to the market.
As a result of our experiences and interactions with the vast amount of Swedish
companies in Russia, we see the need for guidance and reliable input when deciding
upon matters concerning Russia. I hope you will gain new insights from this report and
that we can bring you some guidance in your decision-making processes.
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 2
Foreword
Method
Current status
Regulatory environment
Future plans
Conclusions and recommendations
Final Words
Appendix
4
5
9
14
17
23
24
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY, 2016 3
AGENDA
The survey was sent to 179 Swedish subsidiaries in Russia, representing all company
sizes and industries where Swedish companies are active. 103 participated in the
survey which implicates a response rate of 58 %. There are around 350 Swedish
subsidiaries on the Russian market. Some of the larger corporations have several
subsidiaries, many subsidiaries are holding companies and some real estate
companies have one subsidiary for each property. This renders it irrelevant to reach
out to all of them. Within the companies we reached to country managers, regional
managers and others in leading positions. The survey was open for the respondents
during 4 weeks in March 2016.
The survey took on a descriptive approach to identify major trends among Swedish
companies in Russia. The current state of business was covered in a number of
questions about internal factors such as turnover and other indicators. The companies
were asked to express their expectations of the near future to find out the current
sentiment on the development of the Russian business climate.
The companies were also asked to give their view on how external factors such as
politics, corruption and other societal factors affect their business in Russia. This year’s
survey was complemented with data from earlier years’ Business Climate Survey and,
where relevant by secondary sources.
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 4
METHOD
Response Rate
58%
103
respondents
GOOD COVERAGE AND RESPONSE
RATE IN SAMPLE
4
To find out about the current status of among Swedish business in
Russia, the respondents were asked about the development of a set
of key performance indicators. Maybe surprising, some 40% of the
companies grew their topline measured in Russian Roubles despite
the tough situation on the market. A total of 64% companies had a
stable or increasing turnover in 2015. This can be compared to 36%
who saw decreasing turnovers in Roubles.
For a grasp of the effect of the Rouble depreciation, the companies
were asked about their turnover development in group currency as
well (SEK, USD, EUR). This indicator showed to be more gloomy.
57% had decreasing turnovers in 2015 and 43% had stable or
increasing turnovers. No category of business stood out when cross
referencing company size, industry or seniority on the market.
The Swedish companies showed strong performance when it comes
to market share. A staggering 80% reported that they maintained or
grew their market shares in their most important segment in 2015.
35% increased their market share, 45% maintained their market share
and a mere 13% lost market share.
Larger corporations with a global turnover of more than 500 MEUR
underperformed slightly compared to the rest with 28% losing market
share. Companies with production in Russia fared slightly better than
producing companies with production outside of Russia. 43% of the
producing companies with local production in Russia gained market
share versus 33% of those with production outside of Russia.
The Swedish companies performed better than their
competitors, but the weak Rouble negatively affected
profitability.
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 5
A CHALLENGING BUT NOT PITCH BLACK 2015
40%
…of the companies had increasing
turnovers in Russian Roubles
57% 80%
…of the companies had decreasing
turnovers in group currency
…of the companies increased or
maintained market share
5
No one can have missed that the situation on the Russian market has been tough the
past two years. The official inflation landed on 12.9% for 2015. The Rouble’s
depreciation against the Swedish Krona and other foreign currencies hit importers.
Also producers who import components for assembly on the Russian market had to
fight high volatility. All this affected our Swedish companies as well. Many companies
had to either maintain prices, keep volumes but lose margins, or raise prices, loose
volumes and keep margins.
A majority, 55% of the companies raised their prices in 2015. This is considerably more
than in 2014 when 36% of our respondents raised prices. This previous cautiousness
is mainly the reason why many had to make harsher adjustments in 2015. 44%
maintained their prices in 2014 compared to 26% in 2015.
A smaller group of companies lowered their prices in 2015. 9% in 2015 and 11% in
2014. Broken down by industry, the companies connected to real-estate stands out
here. There is an over supply on the market of commercial and private properties and
market prices have been stable or even decreasing in local currency. The effect in
foreign currency is obviously even more negative. In the end this is positive for those
who rent and problematic for the companies letting property.
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 6
HOW ARE THE COMPANIES
DEALING WITH THE MARKET?
TOP LINE
55%
23%
13%
44%
4% 7% 9%
29% 26% 26%
8%
1%
10%
Raisedmorethan20%
Raisedby 0-20%
Nochange
Loweredby 0-20%
Loweredby more
than20%
I don’t know/not relevant
2014
2015
…of the companies raised prices in
2015
Company Pricing Policies 2014-2015
6
The companies have not only taken top-line action to counter the market. A lot is
happening on the cost side. Real wages are falling in Russia. For the first time since the
90’s real wages have decreased two years in a row. The purchasing power in Russia
diminishes and especially imported goods and travel abroad have become much more
expensive for the average wage worker.
Most companies have raised wages but less than inflation in 2015. Together with
unchanged wages, real wage decreases dominate with 86% of the respondents. The
same categories amounted to 71% in 2014. Only 10 % raised wages more than inflation in
comparison to 16% in 2014. The expectations for next year are mostly on further real
wage decreases. Nominal wage decreases are very rare and only occurred in one
company in 2015.
Staff decreased in 2015 both in total and with regards to foreign employees – expats. 38%
decreased their staff, almost twice as many as those who increased staff. Overall, larger
companies were overrepresented among those who cut staff and small and medium
companies led the way in staff hiring.
More expensive expats are being replaced by less expensive local talents. 16% of the
companies cut down on expats in 2015. Interviews with HR-related companies confirm
this observation. Large resources are spent to find and develop local managers to replace
foreign staff and management. This trend is most noticeable among the larger companies
where you also find the largest total presence of expats and the possibility to make such
adjustments.
The companies take decisive action both on top and bottom lines to counter the
tough situation on the market.
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 7
CUT OFF THE FINGER TO SAVE
THE HAND
BOTTOM LINE
86%
…of the companies lowered real wages
in 2015
38%
…of the companies cut down on staff in
2015
The companies gave their future expectations on key indicators. From
this data it is possible to obtain a view on the sentiment of the future
development of the Russian economy. It is an important complement
to statistical data of hard macro factors.
When it comes to turnover, more companies (51%) expect turnover
growth in Roubles than companies expecting turnover contraction
(12%). The expectations are higher measured in Roubles compared
to group currency. This indicates continued expectations on a weak
Rouble development. The greatest pessimists can be found among
the larger companies. Almost half of the companies with global
turnovers larger than 500 MEUR expect contracting turnovers in
2016.
Swedish companies believe in gaining ground against the competition
in 2016. 57% of the companies expect they will gain market share.
Combined with those who believe in maintained market share they
amount to 89%. An interesting feature is that 50% of those who lost
market share in 2015 expect to gain market share in 2016.
Price increases are expected to dampen in 2016. 42% of the
companies plan to or have already raised prices in 2016. This is high,
but less than the share of companies who raised prices last year
(55%). This indicates an expectation on a stabilization of the inflation
rate from the high levels seen last year.
There is a higher propensity to hire rather than to fire staff in 2016.
27% aim to hire, 19% to fire and 53% will make no changes to their
staff. The larger companies are representing most of the staff cuts
and the smaller companies most of the hiring.
A set of important macro factors with significant impact on the
Russian economy have slightly improved. The oil price has gone up
from the lowest levels, the currency stabilizes, inflation is falling and
interest rates as well.
Negative effects are decreasing in strength and enable a return
towards more beneficial market circumstances. Unless no
adverse political effects or external shocks are incurred.
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 8
KEY INDICATORS POINT AT RAISED EXPECTATIONS FOR
YEAR 2016
51%
…of the companies expect turnover
growth in Roubles in 2016
…of the companies expect to gain
market share 2016
57%
…of the companies expect to hire staff
in 2016
27%
8
Corruption is a frequent topic in discussions concerning business in Russia.
Transparency International ranks Russia at place number 119 out of 168 in their
corruption perception index in 2015.
The Swedish companies in the survey are not unaffected by corruption. The survey
shows that 9% of the companies have encountered corruption and criminal behavior
such as bribery and fraud in their business operations in 2015.
The most frequent area of such exposure is in connection to private external
counterparts where 8% indicate occurrence of activities such as kickbacks and bribes
among competitors to win orders.
Corruption in connection to authorities and public bodies is recognized by 7% of the
respondents. Examples given are blackmailing by tax authorities, questionable fire
inspections, harassment by traffic police.
Internal fraud is less frequent, but still 3% of the companies indicate cases of theft and
fraudulent behavior by own staff.
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 9
CORRUPTION CONTINUES
TO BE A PROBLEM
*IN THE MEANING OF CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR SUCH AS BRIBERY OR FRAUD
9%
…of the companies reported exposure
to some kind of corruption in 2015
7% 8% 3%
76% 74% 82%
18% 18% 15%
...public bodiessuch as customs
and otherauthorities
...privatecounterparts such
as customers,suppliers and
others
...internalcounterparts such
as employees
Exposure No exposure I don't know
Company Exposure to Corruption* in 2015 in
Connection With...
EXPOSURE
9
The general trend in corruption seems to be moving in a positive
direction. A larger share of companies (22%) noticing a decrease in
the extent of corruption the past 5 years, however this can be
compared to respondents perceiving an increase in the level of
corruption (16%). This tendency seems to be valid also for future
expectations, where 24% expect a decrease and 12% expect an
increase in the overall level of corruption in their field of business in
Russia.
Our estimation is that corruption remains a challenge in business in
Russia. However some positive tendencies can be spotted.
Court processes seem to be increasingly possible to win on
proper merits, also in processes against public representatives
Several high profile corruption cases against public figures have
caused officials and politicians to act more carefully
Business Sweden clearly opposes corrupt business behavior
and recommends to never engage in questionable business
setups. Beside the legal and ethical aspects, companies
engaging in corrupt activities take a large risk not only on the
local markets, but expose the brand and reputation to
considerable risks on a global scale.
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 10
RUSSIA HAS A LONG WAY TO GO, BUT IS MOVING
FORWARD WITH A TURTLE’S PACE
22%
36%
16%
25% 24%
33%
12%
31%
Decreased / Willdecrease
No change Increased / Willincrease
I don’t know
Development last 5 years
Expectation of coming 5 years
The development is going in the right direction but
It will take a long time to get significant results
Development and expectation of the Extent of
Corruption
10
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 11
THE POLITICAL TURBULENCE IS SHAPING THE RULES
OF THE GAME
The relations between Russia and EU, USA and other individual
countries have been tense since 2014. Earlier cooperation and
common agendas have been changed into conflict and political
standoffs.
Sanctions imposed by the EU and USA on Russia have limited the
possible areas of cooperation and trade in a number of fields.
41% of the companies in the survey have been affected negatively by
sanctions and embargoes. Commenting on what specific effects they
encountered, sanctions in the whole range of measures are found:
Sanctions related to Crimea
Sector specific sanctions such as the oil industry
Increased control of goods with dual use
Counterparts being on the sanctions lists
Lack of financing among counterparts
An interesting result of the survey is that 7% of the respondents claim
to have benefited by the sanctions regimes. They comment that
competitors have left the market, that the Russian government is
supporting their local activities.
The political risk in Russia is always a factor to take into account. This
has been accentuated over the past two years. However the direct
effects are not always negative for all players on the market.
Geopolitics is rocking the boat… …of the companies were negatively
affected by sanctions in 2015
…of the companies were positively
affected by the sanctions in 2015
41% 7%
11
The Russian government is actively pushing for shifting the domestic demand from
imported products to locally produced goods. New trade barriers have appeared that are
affecting foreign companies.
The import embargo on food products gives the most visible effect. Since 2014 dairy, meat,
fruit and vegetables are not permitted for imports from the EU and USA. This has a large
impact on specific companies in this sector where they have been compelled to either
establish local production or see the market go lost.
On a larger scale the import substitution activities have been concentrated in public
procurement. Where locally produced alternatives exist, companies offering foreign
products have been restricted in participating in public tenders. Domestic producers enjoy
a significant advantage in many spheres, not only when dealing with public counterparties,
but also where there is governmental financing or where there might be a public
counterpart in a second or third step away from the deal as such.
As an effect we see that a radically smaller share of the companies define B2G (business
to government) as their main line of business. The share of companies with government as
their most important customer group has decreased from 12% to 4% from last year’s
survey.
Legislation and regulations are being adapted to define and classify products based on
origin. Narrow and exact criteria are being developed, defining exactly what procedures
that have to be undertaken on Russian soil for goods to be recognized as locally produced.
This process is still ongoing and further development can be expected.
Protectionist measures demand localization of production for companies to keep
access to market
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 12
PUSH FOR LOCAL PRODUCTION IS
AFFECTING EXPORTERS
IMPORT
SUBSTITUTION
Protectionist moves raise market
thresholds for foreign companies
The share of companies with
government as their most important
customer group has dropped
12% 4%
2015
2016 B
2
G
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 13
INVESTMENTS ARE LAGGING, BUT SOME KEEP
STRENGTHENING THE LOCAL FACILITIES
For Russia as a whole, the level of investments is down radically the
past two years, especially in Foreign Direct Investments.
According to the Russian Central Bank, net flow of FDI into Russia
amounts to 52 MUSD in Q3 2015. This is a drastic difference with the
quarterly flows from about two years ago ranging between 8 700 –
11 800 MUSD.
Among the companies in the survey a third has local production, 19%
don’t produce at all and 48% don’t have local production in Russia.
Out of the companies with production in Russia 63% consider
investing more in it and only 1 company look at divesting the existing
production. Out of the producing companies, that don’t produce in
Russia, 1/5 consider localization of production within 3 years time.
The overall share of companies investing in their Russian operations
is down from 41% in 2014 to 31% in 2015. This number stays stable
in expectations on further investments in 2016
The most popular areas of investment is in:
Facilities and land
Production equipment and other machinery
IT infrastructure
Staff
A small share of the companies have used Russian federal and
regional incentive programs such as
Tax breaks
State guarantees
Special investment contracts
Public Private Partnership
8% of the respondents have used similar investment incentive
schemes. All but one company claim that these measures have been
beneficial for the company.
1/3 …of the companies have local
production in Russia
…of the companies made investments
in 2015
…of the companies have used some
kind of governmental support
31% 8%
13
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 14
COMPANIES ARE STAYING AND
EXPANDING IN RUSSIA
As a general trend on the long term ambition the statement is clear: The Swedish
companies are in Russia to stay and expand in the long run. The largest share of
companies, 74% are looking at long term expansion and a further 20% intend to
maintain the current level of business in Russia. A handful of companies plan on
reducing their presence or leaving the market.
The largest companies are the most expansionist in this regard. 19 out of 20
companies with a global turnover of >5 000 MEUR indicate an intention to grow long
term.
Looking at the short term intention to grow the local footprint, a tip over into growth
mode is spotted. 18% of the companies intend to increase their local footprint,
measured in number of offices, outlets, stores, production sites etc. Contrasted by 2%
intending to decrease the same footprint.
In the previous two years the expanding and contracting sides have been closer in
share, with an overweight to growth in 2014 (16% growth and 9 % contraction) and to
contraction in 2015 (12% growth and 14% contraction).
The regions drawing most of the attention is Far East and the Pacific Coast, and
Southern Russia. The “Millioniki” cities with >1m inhabitants are also attracting new
expansion.
74%
20%
1%
2%
3%
6%
Expand Maintain Decrease Leave Other
Long-term plans for Russia
LOCAL PRESENCE
…of the companies are planning to
expand their geofootprint in 2016
18%
14
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 15
FREE RESOURCES ON THE MARKET AMID ONGOING
REGRESSION
The tough market has the effect that more free resources in terms of
labor, production facilities and real estate, are available on the
market. The companies have been asked for many years how they
perceive the availability of staff and managers. The development in
2016 is a substantial increase in availability.
The respondents perceiving the availability of managers to be high
(category 4 + 5) have increased from 13% in 2014 to 39% in 2016.
The respondents perceiving the availability of staff to be high have
increased from 18% to 46%.
With the heavy fall of the Ruble, the cost of attracting highly qualified
staff has dropped considerably. There is also a higher tendency of
qualified people on the market to consider foreign companies over
domestic high salary jobs, in areas like natural resources and
administration.
22%
6% 10%
2%
37%
22%
30%
9%
28%
33%
41% 42%
11%
31%
13%
34%
2%
8% 5%
12%
Management 2014 Management 2016 Staff 2014 Staff 2016
1 (low) 2 3 4 5 (high)
Access to Staff and Management 2014 & 2016
46%
39%
13%
18%
Good access to staff and management has
increased dramatically since 2014
15
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 16
WHY STAY IN RUSSIA?
What are the main drivers to remain doing business on the Russian
market?
The sentiment for the Russian market is challenging, going into the
third year of recession with political sanctions on top of it. Despite this
fact, 84% of the respondents estimate their long term profitability on
the Russian market being moderate to very high. The long term
profitability seems to talk in favor of the Russian market despite the
low tide in the economy.
A growing share of the respondents believe in the Russian market as
a whole. 70% expect that the Russian market as a whole recovers
and returns to growth within 3 years. Still, 7% don’t foresee any
positive scenario, but that number has fallen from 20% last year. In
general the expectations on the market have consolidated to more
moderate expectations.
The Swedish brand is strong. A reassuring 88% of the respondents
claim that the image of Sweden among its counterparts is positive or
very positive. Only one respondent indicated that the image would be
negative. All companies profiling themselves as Swedish claim that
the association with Sweden impacts their business in a positive way.
Some 15% of the companies don’t profile themselves as Swedish
companies.
These impressions from the Swedish companies active in Russia can
be complemented with external research by the Levada institute,
measuring the sentiment among Russians on Sweden. Year after year
Sweden scores high in these polls compared to nearby countries and
to the EU as a whole.
70%
…of the companies lowered real wages
in 2015 3 years
84%
…of the companies think the Russian
market is moderately to highly profitable
…of the companies expect the market
will turnaround within 3 years
…say the Swedish brand is perceived
positively or very positively in Russia
70% 88%
16
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 17
DIVERSE FACTORS AFFECT
STRATEGIC CHOICES IN RUSSIA
The Russian market faces great challenges in the turbulence that has been ongoing
since 2014. The past few years have been tough for many, but the expectations on
2016 and beyond are filled with more confidence than anticipated.
The Swedish companies undertake significant action on top and bottom lines to
counter the new normal, they seem to beat the competition. They take market share
and the long term profitability appear to be satisfactory.
The corruption remains a problem, in contact with public counterparts and authorities,
as well as private external and internal counterparts. The trend is assumed to be
somewhat positive going forward.
Protectionist measures and a strong focus on local production pressures the
companies to action to keep their access to the market.
The Swedish companies have a strong position with strong brands and a potential to
develop the operations in a favorable and profitable direction. And to remain winners in
the tough competition.
Because there is a shake out going on in the market. Many weak players are leaving,
closing or going bankrupt. It is important to remember that the tough times in the
Russian market are valid for all companies. The competitors of the Swedish
companies fight the same challenges. The strongest players survive and have good
chances to gain market share and a stronger position.
FOOD FOR
THOUGHT
There is a shakeout going on and the
strongest will prevail
Russia is complex and many factors
need strategic analysis
17
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 18
THE FUTURE IS UNPREDICTABLE AND RUSSIA DEMANDS
CLOSE MONITORING OF DEVELOPMENTS
The future is uncertain, the political risk remains high, and we don’t
know what we can expect going forward.
The first part of 2016 has shown a lower level of conflict in the
political landscape and a respite in the dramatic events seen since
2014. How this will develop further, is impossible to foresee.
Single major events can have large consequences. The downed
Russian fighter jet in Syria changed the relation between Russia and
Turkey overnight with dramatic consequences for Turkish companies
and Russian consumers.
We see no reason to worry in the specific relation between Russia
and Sweden, but the speed in policy change in dramatic events
makes the political risk utterly hard to predict.
Energy and commodity prices are still of vital importance for the
Russian economy. The currency rate and the Moscow stock
exchange show high correlation with the oil price. An increase in the
oil price might take Russia out of recession sooner, a decrease can
rapidly make the future prospects more gloomy.
It is important to maintain a close monitoring of the Russian market,
and to spot events that can affect the business activities in Russia.
This is not least valid for the regulatory affairs, where new laws and
regulations come frequently and often change the preconditions for
business. Sometimes in a favorable direction, sometimes in ways
that demand big adjustments or even disables a continued concern.
There is high business potential in Russia, also after the events
of 2014 and 2015. The risk level is high and a robust, yet flexible
strategy is recommended to deal with unexpected changes.
?
Uncertainty is something everyone has to deal with in
Russia. No one knows what will happen in the future
18
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 19
CHOOSE YOUR STRATEGY BASED ON RISK APPETITE,
TIME HORIZON AND RESOURCES
Russia is and will remain a large nearby market, with opportunities for
a high reward and with a significant risk to consider. Many strategic
considerations need to be done, some of which are covered in this
report, based on the impressions of Swedish companies on the
Russian market.
What strategy to choose is mainly depending on the company’s
Resources, Risk Appetite and Time Horizon.
The three last pages of this report will go through three scenarios
based on high, medium and low level of these three main factors.
High Low
Risk/Reward
3 MAIN STRATEGIES FOR THE RUSSIAN MARKET
19
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 20
HIGH RISK / HIGH REWARD – THE AGGRESSIVE
APPROACH
If the three factors Resources, Risk Appetite and Time Horizon
are in abundance, there is a good opportunity to fight the bearish
market. Take the initiative and establish a heavy local presence in
Russia as a local player for the Russian market and the surrounding
countries. By establishing or increasing local production, own
distribution and sales channels, the company can act aggressively
and take market share from competitors. Competitors can be
beaten or bought, asset prices have a lower valuation than in a long
time.
Use competitive advantages that the foreign ownership provides.
Financing is scarce on the market. By taking up financing offshore
and funnel it to Russia, opportunities may appear that competitors
will find hard to compete with. Be proactive in governmental
relations and influence the debate where the rules of the market are
being shaped.
Being successful in a strong scenario can enable a dominant
position on the market, but with significant risk, high demand for
resources and possibly many years before a stable profit can be
reached.
Fight the bearish market!
20
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 21
THE MIDDLE WAY – LAY LOW
In the mid range of the strategy scenario we find the “wait and see”
mode. This has been the main option for most companies the past
few years. Costs have been cut, the cost base has been adjusted
for weaker sales and lower margins.
Remain on the market but lose the lead.
Keep a possibility to scale up when the market returns to a more
favorable direction.
Develop cooperation with collaborative partners and find alternative
markets for existing products.
Monitor the development on the market and react fast to changes.
21
Lay low and wait for summer
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 22
LOW EXPOSURE, LOW RISK AND LOW REWARD
In the lowest range of the strategy scenario we look at low footprint
ways of dealing with the Russian market. Sales without local
presence – through distributors, agents and partners.
Sales can be done directly to end clients in Russia from abroad,
through traditional channels, or through online channels.
E-commerce in Russia is growing rapidly, mainly internally in
Russia, but also from abroad.
Acting with a low footprint will make it harder to reach many clients.
Taking a leading position on the market will be less likely.
It will take longer time to gear up in a sudden growth scenario.
But it’s a good first step to try a product on the market. Or a way to
maintain presence after an exit.
The risk is lower, but not non-existent, remain in control!
Engaging in cooperation with external partners always carries a risk,
larger than when maintaining control of the whole supply chain.
Apart from the risk of theft or fraud, there is also a reputational risk
by letting third parties represent the brand in front of your
customers, especially on foreign markets.
Russia can be handled
from a distance with a
minimum stake
22
In the questions on corruption, external fraud scored higher than
internal fraud. Controlling your own channels is more costly, but is
one way of lowering the risk level.
Always secure the quality of your external partners. Take references,
do background checks, monitor their performance, evaluate
frequently and don’t give up control too early.
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 23
Thank you for taking your time to read this report on the Business Climate in
Russia. Russia is a country and a market that has always triggered strong
emotions. Sometimes big and frightening, sometimes incomprehensible and
unpredictable. But remember that it is more similar than we sometimes
assume it to be. Business in Russia is like business in most places, every
country is unique in its own way.
Don’t hesitate to reach out to me or my team in Moscow, Stockholm or any of
the other 50+ locations where we are represented in the world. We have seen
a lot and know the local aspects of business.
We discuss strategies and plans on a daily basis. We advice our clients, from
the smallest startups to the global corporations in all steps of their international
endeavors. We have the networks and can complement your internal
resources in an efficient way, worldwide.
All the very best, vi hörs!
/Andreas
Final words
+46 703 909 473
www.business-sweden.se
@BusinessSweCEE
Business Sweden’s purpose is to help every Swedish
company to reach their full international potential
BUSINESS SWEDEN 16 MAY 2016 24
APPENDIX - DEMOGRAPHICS
30%
9%
32%
10%
13%
15%
22%
25%
3%
20%
21%
Russia
Global
5000 MEUR ormore
500 MEUR or morebut less than 5000MEUR*
50 MEUR or morebut less than 500MEUR
10 MEUR or morebut less than 50MEUR
2 MEUR or morebut less than 10MEUR
Less than 2 MEUR
REPRESENTED INDUSTRIES COMPANY SIZE IN TURNOVER GLOBALLY AND RUSSIA
*CATEGORY INDICATES 500 MEUR OR MORE IN LOCAL TURNOVER VOLUME
Industry Frequency Relative frequency
Manufacturing 47 46%
Wholesale and retail trade 14 14%
Professional, scientific and
technical activities 8 8%
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5 5%
Information and communication 5 5%
Other 5 5%
Real estate activities 4 4%
Construction 3 3%
Education 3 3%
Electricity, gas, steam and air
conditioning supply 3 3%
Financial and insurance
activities 3 3%
Human health and social work
activities 3 3%
Total 103 100%
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