by william b. samuels - usgs

AN OILSPILL RISK ANALYSIS FOR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC (PROPOSED SALE' 78) OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF LEASE AREA

by William B. Samuels

U. S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OPEN-FILE REPORT 82-807

September 1982

Contents

Page

Abstract 1

Introduction 2

Decisionmaking under risk and uncertainty 3

Summary of the proposed action and the majoralternatives 3

Environmental resources 4

Estimated quantity of oil resources 6

Probability of oilspills occurring 7

Oilspill trajectory simulations 9

Combined analysis of oil spill occurrence andoilspill trajectory simulations 12

Discussion of results 14

Conclusions^ 15

References cited 16

List of Illustrations 18

List of Tables 27

Appendix A 90

Appendix B 117

Appendix C 130

Appendix D 159

AN OILSPILL RISK ANALYSIS FOR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC

(PROPOSED SALE 78)

OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF LEASE AREA

« » »« » » »*» »« »« « «»« » » « » » »« « » » »« * « » » «

By William B. Samuels

Abstract

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted for the South Atlantic (proposed sale 78) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The analysis considered the probability of spill occurrences based on historical trends; likely movement of oil slicks based on a climatological model; and locations of environmental resources which could be vulnerable to spilled oil. The times between spill occurrence and contact with resources were estimated to aid analysts in estimating slick characteristics.

Critical assumptions made for this particular analysis were: (1) that oil exists in the lease area, (2) that either 0.228 billion (mean case) or 1.14 billion (high case) barrels of oil will be found and produced from tracts sold in sale 78, and (3) that all the oil will be found either in the northern or the southern portion of the lease area. On the basis of these resource estimates, it was estimated that 1 to 5 oil spills of 1,000 barrels or greater will occur over the 25 to 30-year production life of the proposed sale 78 tracts. The results also depend upon the routes and methods chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to shore.

Given the above assumptions, the estimated probability that one or more oilspills of 1,000 barrels or largerwill occur and contact land after being at sea less than 30 days is less than 15 percent for all cases considered; for spills 10,000 barrels or larger, the probability is less than 10 percent. These probabilities also reflect the following assumptions: oil spills remain intact for up to 30 days, do not weather, and are not cleaned up. It is noteworthy that over 80 percent of the risk of oilspill occurrence from proposed sale 78 is due to transportation rather than production of oil. In addition, the risks of oil spill occurrence from proposed sale 78 (mean resource esimate) are less than one-tenth of the risks of existing tanker transportation of crude oil imports and refined products in the South Atlantic area.

Introduction

The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands off the South Atlantic coast for oil and gas leasing. The conditional mean estimate of oil resources for the proposed tracts* in the sale 78 area is 0.228 billion barrels of crude oil. There is an 84 percent probability that commercial hydrocarbons are present in the sale area, and this report examines what could happen if oil is found. Contingent upon actual discovery of oil, production is expected to span a period of 25 to 30 years.

Oilspills are a major concern associated with offshore oil production. An important fact that stands out when one attempts to evaluate the significance of accidental oilspills is that the problem is fundamentally probabilistic. Uncertainty exists about the amount of oil that will be produced from the leases and the number and size of spills that might occur during the life of production, as well as the wind and current conditions that would exist at the time of a spill occurrence and give movement and direction to the oil slick. Although some of the uncertainty reflects incomplete and imperfect data, considerable uncertainty is simply inherent in the problem of describing future events over which complete control cannot be exercised. Since it can not be predicted with certainty that a probabilistic event such as an oil spill will occur, only the likelihood of occurrence can be quantified. The range of possible effects that may accompany a decision on oil and gas production must be considered. In attempting to maintain perspective on the problem, each potential effect must be associated with a quantitative estimate of its probability of occurrence.

This report summarizes results of an oilspill risk analysis conducted for the proposed South Atlantic OCS Lease Sale 78. The study had the objective of determining relative risks associated with oil and gas production in different regions of the proposed lease area. The study was undertaken for consideration in the draft environmental impact statement (EIS), which is prepared for the area by the Minerals Management Service (MMS), formerly the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and to aid in the final selection of tracts to be offered for sale. A description of the oilspill trajectory analysis model used in this analysis can be found in previous papers (Lanfear and others, 1979; Smith and others, 1982; Lanfear and Samuels, 1981). The analysis was conducted in three parts corresponding to different aspects of the overall problem. The first part dealt with the probability of oilspill occurrence and the second with the trajectories of oilspills from potential launch points to various targets. Results of the first two parts of the analysis were then combined to give estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with oil and gas production in the lease area.

Peelsionmaking under Risk and Uncertainty

Oilspill impacts result primarily from two events that are probabilistic in nature: oilspill occurrence caused by accidents, and oilspill movement directed by random winds and currents. Although a probabilistic event (such as an oilspill) cannot be predicted with certainty, the likelihood of occurrence can be quantified. The likelihood that oilspills will result from an OCS leasing decision can be estimated, but whether they will actually occur can only be known after the area is explored and the oil, if any, is produced. This situation is in contrast to a deterministic situation where a particular action can be depended upon to produce a specific result.

In making decisions under risk and uncertainty, investigators must understand that a choice can have a range of possible outcomes. Generally, a desire to maximize the likelihood of the most favorable outcomes must be tempered by the need to minimize the probability of highly unfavorable outcomes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Oilspill Trajectory Analysis (OSTA) Model was designed to reflect the range of possible outcomes of leasing decisions by estimating the probability of occurrence for each discrete outcome; specifically, it estimates the likelihood that a particular target will be contacted by 0, 1, 2, ... N oilspills during the production life of an OCS lease area.

If an oilspill occurs at a given launch point, the probability that it will contact a particular target is termed a conditional probability. Such conditional probabilities can be very useful in identifying those launch points at which an oilspill, if it occurs, will pose the highest risks to various targets. Tables of conditional probabilities can help the analyst to select alternatives that will reduce overall risk. However, conditional probabilities do not include the probability of oil spill occurrence. It is assumed that a tract that contains little or no oil is a small risk because, no matter how high the conditional probability of contacting a target may be, the small amount of oil makes it unlikely that an oilspill will occur. Also, conditional probabilities for spills originating at the production platforms do not necessarily reflect the risks of spills during transportation. For these reasons, analysts are cautioned against basing judgments solely upon conditional probabilities.

Summary of the Proposed Action and the Major Alternatives

The proposed action is to lease a large number of tracts on the Outer Continental Shelf off the South Atlantic coast. The study area for this analysis includes all of these tracts and extends from latitude 28° N. to 37° N., and from longitude 73° W. to 81° 40' W. (figure 1). The study area also includes existing lease tracts from OCS sales 43 and 56. RS-2 is a sale reoffering tracts not previously sold in the South Atlantic and other OCS lease areas. The South Atlantic tracts to be reoffered are located within the sale 56 lease area.

For purposes of this analysis, lease tracts are combined into tract groups; the proposed sale 78 tracts are divided into 18 groups. The proposed study area is shown in figure 1. The subdivisions of the proposed tract groups (P1-P18) are shown in figure 2. The existing tract groups from OCS Lease Sales 56 (E1-E23) and 43 (E24- E33) are shown in figures 3 and 4, respectively.

If oil is discovered and the area is developed for production, there are a number of ways in which oil can be transported. Proposed and existing transportation routes are shown in figure 5. The following hypothetical transportation scheme is proposed for the tracts in the sale 78 area for the purpose of impact assessment:

(1) . If the mean resource estimate of oil (0.228 billion barrels) is found in the northern portion of the lease area (P10-P17, E1-E5) then a combined pipeline (T43, T44, T46) and tanker scheme (T47-T50) will transport 20 percent of the oil to Chesapeake Bay and 80 percent to Delaware Bay. If the high resource estimate (1.14 billion barrels) is discovered, then the percentages transported to Chesapeake and Delaware Bays change to 5 and 95 percent, respectively.

(2) If all the oil is found in the southern portion of the lease area (P1-P9, E6-E33), then pipelines (for example, T12-T14) would bring the oil to a central location near tract group E13. From there, the oil would be transported north by tankers to Chesapeake and Delaware Bays. The same percentages apply as mentioned in (1) above.

Tract group P18 was not included in this transportation scheme. It was considered by MMS to have, at the present time, little potential for the presence of oil resources. Other routes shown in figure 5 are those used for the tanker ing of imported crude oil and refined products to the various ports along the coast.

Environmental Resources

The locations of 27 categories of environmental resources (or targets, as they are designated in this paper) were digitized in the same coordinate system, or base map, as that used in trajectory simulations. Targets were selected by MMS analysts. Maps showing the digitized targets are shown in appendix A, figures A-l to A-26. The monthly sensitivities of these targets were also recorded so that, for example, a target such as migrating birds could be contacted by simulated oil spills only when the birds would be in the area. All targets are considered to be vulnerable year round unless otherwise indicated. The targets are listed below:

Brown Pelican RookeriesMarine Turtle Nesting Habitat (vulnerable May through October)Onslow Bay Live Bottom AreaFederal and State Wildlife Conservation AreasFederal and State Parks (vulnerable May through October)

Federal and State Parks (vulnerable November through April)Blackbeard, Sapelo, and Wolf IslandsGray's ReefCape Romain National WildernessMonitor Marine SanctuaryTourist Beaches, N.C. (vulnerable May through October)Tourist Beaches, S.C. (vulnerable May through October)Tourist Beaches, Ga. (vulnerable May through October)Tourist Beaches, Fla. (vulnerable April through November)Coastal Inlets, N.C.Coastal Inlets, S.C.Coastal Inlets, Ga.Coastal Inlets, Fla.Historic SitesPrehistoric SitesCoastal Waterbird ColoniesManatee Critical HabitatSalt Marsh and WetlandsRoyal Red Shrimp GroundsCalico Scallop AreaPeregrine Falcon Migration Area (vulnerable February through March

and September through November) Bald Eagle Nesting Area (vulnerable January through May)

Because the trajectory model simulates an oil spill as a point, most targets have been given an area! extent slightly greater than they actually occupy. For example, some shoreline targets extend a short distance offshore; this allows the model to simulate a spill that approaches land, makes partial contact, withdraws, and continues on its way.

To provide a more detailed analysis for land or land-based targets, the model includes a feature that allows subdividing the coastline into land segments. Figure 6 shows the coastline divided into 26 segments of approximately equal length (set 1). Figure 7 shows the coastline divided into 27 segments selected by MMS (set 2) that represents the ocean boundaries of each coastal county. Brevard county spans segments 25 and 26. The county names corresponding to the land segments in figure 7 are listed below:

Land Segment Number (set 2) County Name

1 Currituck, NC2 Dale, NC3 Hyde, NC4 Carteret, NC5 Onslow, NC6 Pender, NC7 New Hanover, NC8 Brunswick, NC

9 Horry, SC10 Georgetown, SC11 Charleston, SC12 Colleton, SC13 Beaufort, SC14 Jasper, SC15 ' Chatham, GA16 Liberty, GA17 Mclntosh, GA18 Glynn, GA19 Carnden, GA20 Nassau, FL21 Duval, FL22 St. Johns, FL23 Flagler, FL24 Volusia, FL25 Brevard, FL26 Brevard, FL27 Virginia Beach, VA

Estimated Quantity of Oil Resources

Considerable uncertainty exists in estimating the volume of oil that will be discovered and produced as a result of an OCS lease sale. A question exists as to whether oilspill risk calculations should be based upon a single estimate of volume, or should consider volume as a random variable and include some probability distribution for volume in computing oil spill occurrence probabilities. The choice may depend upon how the results are to be incorporated into the benefit/risk analysis.

Benefits and risks (as well as many environmental impacts), are functions of the volume of oil, and are not independent of each other. Greater risks are associated with greater volumes of oil and greater economic benefits. If benefits are evaluated by assuming production of a specific amount of oil, then the corresponding risks should be stated in a conditional form such as, "the risks are ..., given that the volume is ..." If benefits are evaluated for a number of discrete volumes, then risks should likewise be calculated for the same volumes. Any statements about the likelihood of the presence of a particular volume of oil apply equally well to the likelihood of the corresponding benefits and risks.

The estimated oil resources used for oilspill risk calculations in this report correspond to those used by MMS in preparing the draft EIS for the lease sale. These estimates are based on those derived by the Resource Appraisal Group, Geologic Division, USGS, for the MMS. An 84 percent chance exists that oil is present in commercial quantities in the sale area (Krahl, 1982). To examine the relative

risks of the various tract groups, it was assumed, for this analysis, that any oil found would be present either in the northern tract groups (P10-P17, E1-E5) or southern tract groups (P1-P9, E6-E33). If oil is present in the OCS Lease Sale 78 area, an estimated conditional mean value of 0.228 billion barrels may occur (Krahl, 1982). A second resource estimate (1.14 billion barrels) was also considered in this analysis as a high case of oil resource recovery (Krahl, 1982).

The assumed volume of oil for leased lands (OCS Lease Sales 43, 56, and RS-2) is 0.129 billion barrels with a 21 percent probability of commercial hydrocarbons being present (Krahl, 1982).

We cannot overemphasize that these estimates are based on the assumption that oil is present; if it is not present, a 16 percent probability for sale 78 and a 79 percent probability for leased lands (Krahl, 1982), then, obviously, no oilspill risks exist. The remainder of this analysis is designed to answer the question, "What are the risks if oil is found?"

In addition to the crude oil estimated to be produced over the 25- to 30-year expected life of the sale 78 leases, NWS estimates that 5.9 billion barrels of crude oil and 28.7 billion barrels of refined products will be imported into the region by tankers from outside sources.

Probability of Oil spills Occurring

The probability of oilspill occurrence (given that oil is present) is based on the fundamental assumption that realistic estimates of future spill frequencies can be based on past OCS experience. This analysis is based on the assumption that spills occur independently of each other as a Poisson process and that the spill rate is dependent upon the volume of oil produced or transported. This last assumption that spill rate is a function of the volume of oil handled might be modified on the basis of size, extent, frequency, or duration of the handling. In the case of tanker transport, for example, the number of port'calls and the number of tanker-years have been contemplated (Stewart, 1976, and Stewart and Kennedy, 1978). This analysis is based on volume of oil handled, since all other estimates must ultimately be derived from that quantity.

This analysis includes all types of spills resulting from OCS leasing. It considers not only well blowouts, but also other accidents on platforms, transportation of the oil to shore, and, in some cases, further transportation from an intermediate terminus to refineries. Including all of these risks allows the risks of the

proposed OCS leasing to be compared to those of other alternatives, such as importing oil. Previous USGS data on OCS accidents (Danenberger, 1976; 1980) are included in the data base, but comprise only a part of the data.

In some past model runs, only spills larger than 1,000 barrels (bbl) were considered. This report examines spills in two size ranges: 10,000 barrels or greater, and 1,000 barrels or greater (which includes the first category). To place these sizes in a rough perspective, spills in the largest category are usually associated with catastrophies such as large blowouts or shipwrecks. Accidents in the second category typically include these and other serious events, such as structural failures and tanker collisions. The choice of size range to be used depends upon the analysis being performed. If, for example, a particular impact could occur only from a massive oil slick, then only large spills would be examined.

Accident rates for platforms on the U.S. OCS were derived from USGS accident files (USGS, 1979a and b, unpublished- reports), and from USGS production records (USGS, 1980, unpublished report). For spills of 1,000 barrels or larger, the period from 1964 to 1979 was used. Between 1964 and 1980, four spills of 10,000 barrels or larger occurred, and 10 spills (including the four) of 1,000 barrels or larger occurred. Eight of these spills, however, occurred prior to 1974, indicating a possible change of the spill rate with time. Nakassis (1982) analyzed these data and concluded that the hypothesis of a constant spill rate (per barrel produced) for U.S. OCS platforms should be rejected; using a trend analysis, the 1981 spill rate was 0.79 per billion barrels. There were too few spills of 10,000 barrels or larger to perform a proper trend analysis, so the rate for this category was assumed to be 40 percent of the 1,000 barrel rate.

USGS accident files are also a major source of data for pipeline accidents. The period from 1964 to 1979 was used for spills of 1,000 barrels or larger. During this period, U.S. OCS oil production was 4,386 million barrels. USGS files (1979a and b, unpublished reports) include two spills of over 10,000 barrels and seven spills (including the two) of over 1,000 barrels. Devanney and Stewart (1976) report six additional pipeline spills, but all except one (1,020 barrels) occurred in coastal channels. Adding this one spill to the USGS data gives a total of eight spills of 1,000 barrels or larger. Since nearly all U.S. OCS production has been transported to shore by pipelines, the same production statistics used for platforms can be applied to the pipeline accident data.

Accident data and oil transportation data for tankers are notmaintained by the USGS, so tanker accident rates must be derivedfrom published literature. The worldwide tanker accident rate for

spills of 1,000 barrels or larger, used in recent OSTA models, is from Stewart (1976): 178 spills in 45,941 million barrels of oil transported. No detailed listing of these spills exists in the published literature. However, Devanney and Stewart (1974) examined tanker spills on major trade routes and reported 99 spills greater than 42,000 gallons (1,000 barrels), 87 spills greater than 100,000 gallons, and 32 spills greater than 1,000,000 gallons. Interpolation of this data gives about 53 spills greater than 10,000 barrels, or about 54 percent of the 1,000-barrel spill rate. This estimate can be partially confirmed by listings of spills in the Oilspill Intelligence Report (1979 and 1980) where, out of 22 spills of crude oil from bulk carriers reported for 1978 and 1979 and known or estimated to be larger than 1,000 barrels, 15, or 68 percent, were larger than 10,000 barrels. Therefore, a ratio of 60 percent of the 1,000-barrel rate appears reasonable, giving an estimated spill rate for spills of 10,000 barrels and larger of 107 per 45,941 million barrels.

In summary, the spill rates used in this report are:

Spills per billion barrels >1,000 bbl >10,000 bbl

Platforms 0.79 0.32

Pipelines 1.82 0.46

Tankers 3.87 2.32

Spill frequency estimates were also calculated for production and transportation of oil from sales 43 and 56 and for transportation of oil imported from other areas by tankers. The assumption was made that only one-half of the spills from tanker transportation of imported oil would occur within the study area and that the other half of the spills would occur outside the study area. Table 1 shows the expected number of spills and the most likely number of spills that will occur during the entire expected production life of the lease area. Figure 8 shows the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, ... N spills occurring for proposed sale 78.

Oil spill Trajectory Simulations

The trajectory simulation portion of the model consists of a large number of hypothetical oil spill trajectories that collectively represent both the general trend and the variability of winds and currents, and which can be described in statistical terms. Repres entations of the seasonal surface-water velocity fields were provided by Dynalysis, Inc., Princeton, N.J., using their characteristic tracing model (Kantha and others, 1981). Basically, this model utilizes the geostrophic approximation to the governing equations of fluid motion in rotating coordinates. Temperature and salinity data were

obtained on 1° squares in the study area and then distributed over 1/4° squares (Kantha, 1980). The density field could then be computed and used in the diagnostic calculations. The model uses as boundary conditions bottom velocity and transport on the southern boundary (that is, a transect through the Straits of Florida). A large number of current meter measurements were available for this southern transect. The model does not require the designation of any boundary conditions on the open ocean side. The assumption that velocities vanish at some arbitary depth need not be made in these calculations since the selection of the southern boundary was made so that information on the transport at this boundary was known. It is critical, though, that the southern boundary cross all f/H (f = coriolis parameter, H - depth) contours in the study area. It is possible then to derive the circulation of the region by integrating a vorticity equation along the f/H contours.

Short-term patterns in wind variability were characterized by probability matrices for successive 3-hour velocity transitions. A first-order Markov process with 41 wind velocity states (eight compass directions by five wind speed classes, and a calm condition) was assumed. The elements of this matrix are the probabilities, expressed as percent chance, that a particular wind velocity will be succeeded by another wind velocity in the next time step. If the present state of the wind is given, then the next wind state is derived by random sampling according to the percentages given in the appropriate row of the matrix. Wind transition matrices were calculated from the U.S. Weather Service records from Charleston, S.C. (station number 13880); Savannah, Ga., (station number 3822); and Cape Kennedy, Fla. (station number 12868). The study area was divided into zones so that a simulated oilspill would, depending upon its location, be directed according to the matrix of the appropriate wind station. JAYCOR (1979) compared winds observed at Charleston, S.C., with winds observed about 200 km offshore to the east on a National Data Buoy Office meteorological data buoy over a 1-year period. They found that offshore wind speed averaged 1.8 times the coastal wind speed. This factor was applied to the Charleston and Savannah wind speeds; it was concluded that the Cape Kennedy wind data did not require this adjustment.

Five hundred hypothetical oilspill trajectories were simulated in Monte-Carlo fashion for each of the four seasons from 18 potential oil spill locations in the study area (P1-P18, figure 2); from 33 locations in the existing lease areas (E1-E33, figures 3 and 4); and from 58 locations along the transportation network (T1-T58, figure 5). Each potential spill source was represented as either a single point, a straight line with the potential spill sources uniformly distributed along the line (for example, a transportation route), or as an area (for example, the potential spill sources uniformly distributed within the area). Surface transport of the oil slick for each spill was simulated as a series of straight-line displacements of a point under the joint influence of winds and currents for a 3-hour period. The assumptions used are as follows: (1) the effects of wind and currents act independently, (2) only a fraction of the velocity

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of the wind, as a result of surface shear stress, is imparted to the body of oil; and (3) the direction of oilspill motion induced by the wind is at a non-zero angle to the direction of the wind (a result of the Ekman effect). The wind transition probability matrix was randomly sampled each period for a new wind speed and direction, and the current velocity was updated as the spill changed location or the simulated month changed. The wind drift factor was taken to be 0.035 with a variable drift angle ranging from 0 to 25° clockwise. The drift angle was computed as a function of wind speed according to the formula in Samuels and others (in press). The deflection angle is greatest at low wind speeds. As the simulated oil spill was moved, any contacts with targets were recorded. Spill movement continued until the spill hit land, moved off the map, or aged more than 30 days.

The trajectories simulated by the model represent only hypothetical pathways of oil slicks and do not involve any direct consideration of cleanup, dispersion, or weathering processes which could determine the quantity or quality of oil that might eventually come in contact with targets. An implicit analysis of weathering and decay can be considered by noting the age of simulated oilspills when they contact targets. For this analysis, three time periods were selected: 3 days, to represent diminished toxicity of the spill; 10 days, to allow for deployment of cleanup equipment; and 30 days, to represent the difficulty of tracking or locating spills after this time.

When calculating probabilities from Monte Carlo trials it is desirable to estimate the error associated with this technique. The calculation of the standard deviation £, for a particular probability £ is calculated as follows:

s =* SQRT(p(l-p)/N)

where _N = number of trials. The shape of this distribution approximates the normal curve, thus, table 2 shows, for the 90- percent confidence level of this distribution, values of ^ as a function of p and ft. For _N - 2,000, ^ is always less than 0.012; for practical purposes, the Monte Carlo error is insignificant. Any error which does exist lies in the accuracy of the current and wind data.

Each entry in tables 3, 4, and 5 represents the probability (expressed as percent chance) that, if a spill starts from a certain launch point, it will contact a particular target within 3, 10, or 30 days, respectively. Tables 6 to 11 present similar probabilities for land segments. These conditional probabilities allow for the possibility that the targets may not be vulnerable to oilspills for the entire year; a target that is vulnerable for only 1 month, for example, could have a conditional probability no higher than about 1/12.

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Combined Analysis of Oil spill Occurrence and Oil spill Trajectory Simulations

Data in figure 8 indicate the probabilities of different numbers of oilspills occurring. Tables 3 to 11 indicate the probabilities that targets or land segments will be contacted, given that an oilspill occurs. The probability that, if an oilspill occurs at a certain location, or launch point, it will contact a specific target within a given time-of-travel (under the circumstances described above) is termed a conditional probability because it depends on oilspill occurrence. For a set of nt targets and nl launch points, these conditional probabilities can be represented in a matrix form. Let [C] be an nt x nl matrix, where each element .c(j.»j.) is the probability tITat an oilspill will hit target ±t given that a spill occurs at launch point j_. Note that launch points can represent potential spill starting points from production areas or transportation routes.

Spill occurrence can be represented by another matrix [$]. With ft! launch points and ns production sites, the dimensions of [S] are nl x ns. Let each element js(j,Jc) be the expected number of spills occurring at launch point jT due to production of a unit volume of oil at site Jc. These spills can result from either production or transportation. The .s(j.»J<) can be determined as functions of the volume of oil (spills per billion barrels). Each column of [S] corresponds to one production site and one transportation route. If alternative and mutually exclusive transportation routes are considered for the same production site, they can be represented by additional columns of [S], effectively increasing ns.

Define matrix [U] as:

[U] * [C] x [S]

Matrix [U] which has dimensions nt x ns, is termed the unit risk matrix because each element u.(j.,][7 corresponds to the expected number of spills occurring and contacting target i due to the production of a unit volume of oil at site Ju With Itl], it is a relatively simple matter to find the expected contacts to each target, given a set of oil volumes at each site. Let [V] be a vector of dimension ns, where each element _v(kj corresponds to the volume of oil expected to be found at production site Jc. Then, if [L] is a vector of dimension nt, where each element J_(jj corresponds to the expected number of contacts to target j[,

[L] = [U] x [V]

Similar calculations can also be made for land segments.

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Using Bayesian techniques, Devanney and Stewart (1974) showed that the probability of _n oil spill contacts can be described by a negative binomial distribution. Smith and others (1980), however, noted that when actual exposure is much less than historical exposure, as is the case for most oilspill risk analyses, the negative binomial distribution can be approximated by a Poisson distribution. The* Poisson distribution has a significant advantage in calculations because it is defined by only one parameter, the expected number of spills. The matrix [L] thus contains all the information needed to use the Poisson. distribution: if £(£,1) is the probability of exactly £ contacts to target j[, then:

A critical difference exists between the conditional probabilities calculated in the previous section and the overall probabilities calculated in this section. Conditional probabilities depend only on the winds and currents in the study area elements over which the decisionmaker has no control. Overall probabilities, on the other hand, will depend not only on the physical conditions but also on the course of action chosen by the decisionmaker, that is, choosing to sell or not to sell the lease tracts.

Tables 12 to 15 compare the probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more oilspills (greater than 1,000 barrels) and the expected number of oilspills occurring and contacting targets within periods of 3, 10, and 30 days, over the expected production life of the lease area, for proposed sale 78 alone, proposed sale 78 plus existing leases, and tanker transportation of crude oil and refined products. The oilspill risks were compared for both the mean and high resource estimates using the assumption that the oil would be found either in the northern or southern portion of the study area. Tables 16 to 19 and 20 to 23 show similar probabilities to land segments set 1 and set 2, respectively.

Two oilspill sizes were considered inthis analysis, those greater than 1,000 barrels and those greater than 10,000 barrels. Tables 12 to 23 show probabilities for spills of 1,000 barrels and greater. Similar analyses were performed for spills 10,000 barrels and greater. These are shown in Appendix B, tables Bl - B12.

The overall probabilities are also shown graphically for selected targets and land segments in appendices C and D. Figures C-l through C-28 present histograms which show probabilities of 1, 2, ... N spills occurring and contacting specific targets within periods of 3,10, and 30 days. Figures D-l and D-2 indicate, through circles superimposed on maps of the coastline, the probabilities of one or more spills occurring and contacting land

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segments (set 1) within 30 days, for tanker transportation of crude oil imports; and tanker transportation of crude oil imports and refined products.

Discussion of Results

The oilspill risks associated with OCS sale 78 generally reflect the proximity of the lease tract groups and transportation routes to the coastline and the various targets. Sale of the proposed leases will result in less than 15 percent probability of one or more oilspills greater than 1,000 barrels occurring and contacting land within 30 days, overthe production life of the proposed leases. The same probability of contact within 3 days is less than 1 percent indicating the smaller chance of contact by oil that has not weathered substantially.

The individual land segments in sets 1 and 2 all have less than a 6 percent chance of being contacted by one or more spills (of 1,000 barrels and greater) within 30 days. Furthermore, all land segments have less than 2 percent chance of oil spill (1,000 barrels and greater) contact within 3 days. It is readily apparent that the risks of oil spill contact to the coastline from proposed sale 78 are very small.

In general, it appears that if the high resource estimate of oil is found, the oil spill risks incurred will be approximately two to four times the risks which would result if the mean resource estimate is found. For example, the mean case indicates a 2 percent chance of one or more oilspills (of 1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting the Royal Red Shrimp grounds within 30 days (assuming that the oil is found in the southern lease tracts). If the high case is considered, this risk increases to 7 percent. Whether the oil is found in the north or south could make a significant difference in the oil spill risks to several targets. For example, considering the discovery of the high resource estimate of oil in the northern leases, the risks of oilspill contact to the CalicoScallop grounds is only 1 percent (within30 days travel time). If this similar amount of oil is found in the southern leases, the risks to the Calico Scallop increase to 14 percent.

It is useful to compare the probabilities of spills occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of the proposed sale 78 lease area with the risks from existing tanker transportation of imported oil. In this way the relative effect of adding the proposed tracts to the study area maybe examined. As seen in tables 12-23, the effect of existing tankering substantially increases the risk to almost all of the targets and land segments. It is clear that there already exists a high risk of oilspill contact to targets and the coastline in the study area as a result of transportation. The production and transportation of OCS oil appears to add little risk to what already exists.

14

Conclusions

This analysis with its assumptions indicates that if oil exists in commercial quantities in the OCS sale 78 area (an 84 percent chance), the probability that one or more oil spills of 1,000 barrels of larger will occur and contact land within 3 days is less than 1 percent; for contact within 30 days, the probability increases to less than 15 percent. For spills of 10,000 barrels or larger, these probabilities are reduced to less than 0.5 and less than 10 percent, respectively. Over 80 percent of the risks to land occur in transporting oil to shore rather than producing it on platforms.

If existing transportation of oil is considered, the probability of one or more spills occurring and contacting land increases substantially, becoming 0.36 for crude oil imports and 0.91 for crude oil imports and refined products.

15

References Cited

Danenberger, E. P., 1976, Oilspills, 1971-1975, Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 741, 47 p.

1980, Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas blowouts: U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 80-101, 15 p.

Devanney, M. W., Ill, and Stewart, R. J., 1974, Analysis of oilspill statistics, April 1974: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Cambridge) report no. MITSG-74-20 prepared for the Council on Environmental Quality, 126 p.

1976, The northeast and offshore oil: Martingale, Inc.,prepared for Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, N.Y., 68 p,

JAYCOR, 1979, Physical oceanographic model evaluation for the South Atlantic OCS region: JAYCOR, Research Triangle Park, N.C., Draft final report to the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, Contract Number AA551-CT8-34, 213 p.

Kantha, L.H., 1980, A diagnostic characteristic tracing scheme for deducing the climatological current distribution in the south Atlantic Bight: Princeton, N.J., Dynalysis of Princeton, 75 p.

Kantha, L.H., Mellor, G.L., and Blumberg, A.F., 1981, Diagnostic calculations of the circulation in the middle and south Atlantic Bights: Ocean Modelling, v. 37, p. 5-8.

Krahl, R. B., 1982, Exploration and development (E£D) report forproposed Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) sale no. 78, South Atlantic: Memorandum to Minerals Manager, Atlantic OCS Region, from Acting Deputy Chief, Offshore Minerals Management, Department of Interior, February 21, 1982, 1 p.

Lanfear, K. J., Smith, R. A., and Slack, J. R., 1979, An introduction to the oilspill risk analysis model: Proceedings of the Offshore Technology Conference, llth, Houston, Tex., 1979, OTC 3607, p. 2173-2175.

Lanfear, K. J., and Samuels, W. B., 1981, Documentation and user's guide to the U.S. Geological Survey oilspill risk analysis model: Oilspill trajectories and the calculation of conditional probabilities: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 81-316, 95 p.

Nakassis, A., 1982, Has offshore oil production become safer?: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 82-232.

16

Oilspill Intelligence Report, 1979, International summary of 1978 spills: v. 2, no. 12, March 23, 1979, 20 p.

Oilspill Intelligence Report, 1980, International summary of 1979 spills: v. 3, no. 21, May 23, 1980, 32 p.

Samuels, W. B., Huang, N. E., and Amstutz, D. E., 1982, An oil spill trajectory analysis model with a variable wind deflection angle: Ocean Engineering, v. 9, p. 347-360.

Smith, R. A., Slack, J. R., Wyant, T., and Lanfear, K. J., 1982, The oilspill risk analysis model of the U.S. Geological Survey: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1227, 40 p.

Stewart, R. J., 1976, A survey and critical review of U.S. oil spill data resources with application to the tanker/pipeline controversy: Report to the U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C., Martingale Inc., Cambridge, Mass. 75 p.

Stewart, R. J., and Kennedy, M. B., 1978, An analysis of U.S. tanker and offshore petroleum production oil spillage through 1975: Report to Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Department of the Interior, Contract Number 14-01-0001-2193, Martingale Inc., Cambridge, Mass., Ill p.

U.S. Geological Survey, Conservation Division 1979a, Accidents connected with Federal oil and gas operations on the Outer Continental Shelf, Gulf of Mexico, v. 1, 1956-1979: Unpublished report, December, 131 p.

______ 1979b, Accidents connected with Federal oil and gas operations on the Outer Continental Shelf, Pacific area: Unpublished report, 10 p.

1980, Outer Continental Shelf statistics, calendar year1979: Unpublished report, 100 p,

17

List of Illustrations

Page

1. Map showing the South Atlantic OCS Lease- Sale 78 study area. 19

2. Map showing the proposed lease tract groups(P1-P18) for South Atlantic OCS Lease Sale 78. 20

3. Map showing the existing lease tract groups (E1-E23)in the study area for OCS Lease Sale 56. 21

4. Map showing the existing lease tract groups (E24-E33)in the study area for OCS Lease Sale 43. 22

5. Map showing the transportation route segments(T1-T58). 23

6. Map showing the division of the South Atlantic shoreline into 26 segments of approximately equal length (set 1). 24

7. Map showing the division of the South Atlantic shoreline into 27 segments selected by MMS (set 2). 25

8. Estimated frequency distribution for oilspillsgreater than 1,000 and 10,000 barrels occurringduring the expected production life of OCSSale 78 leases. 26

18

Figure l

.»Na

p sh

owin

g the

South

Atla

ntic

OCS L

ease

Sal

e 78 s

tudy a

rea

ro

O

Fig

ure

2.--

Map

sh

owin

g th

e

prop

osed

le

ase

tract

grou

ps

(P1-

P18

) fo

r S

outh

Atla

ntic

OCS

Leas

e S

ale

78.

Fig

ure

3.

Ma

p

show

ing

the

exis

ting

lea

se tr

act

grou

ps

(E1-

E23

) in

th

e

stu

dy

area

fo

r OC

S Le

ase

Sal

e 56

.

ro

Figure 4. Map

showing

the

exis

ting

lea

se t

ract g

roups

(E24-E33)

in t

he s

tudy

area

for

DCS

Leas

e Sale 4

3.

f\i

u>

Figu

re 5

.--M

ap s

how

ing

the

tran

sport

atio

n r

oute

seg

men

ts

(T1-

T58

).

SOUT

H C

ARO

LIN

A

# 10

Fig

ure

6.--

Map

sh

owin

g th

e d

ivis

ion

of

the S

outh

Atlantic

sho

relin

e in

to

26

segm

ents

of

appro

xim

ate

ly e

qual

le

ng

th (s

et

1).

ro

01

Figure 7

.--M

ap s

howing t

he d

ivis

ion

of t

he S

outh

Atl

anti

c shoreline

into 27

segments

sele

cted

by M

MS (set 2

).

f\5

1,00

0 b

arr

els

u.o

0.6

H K 0 ft A

<> *

B I L I T

0.2

It

0.0

. -

M

M " 0

Ml

M

1

ii

u 1

1**

y i

*- **

* *

$

10,0

00 b

arr

els

R

and

gre

ate

r

MEA

N RE

SOUR

CE

ESTI

MAT

E

3FL_

N U

M B

£ K

OF

S

V I

L L

S

0.8

0.6

.

HIGH

RE

SOUR

CEK 0 B A

0.4

B I 1 T 0.2

If

0.0

,.

.,,,

- _ I

a mt

mm

0 t

«

m

m

1 ,

11 n

"4

"

^

1 1

1 1

m*m

H 4

-i IL

1

I PI

n

i 1

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(> /

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JO

;t ii

t: it

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i i,

i. s

Figu

re 8

. E

stim

ated

fr

eque

ncy

dis

trib

uti

on

fo

r o

ilsp

ills

gre

ater

tha

n 1,

000

and

10,0

00 b

arre

ls

occu

rrin

g du

ring

the

exp

ecte

d pr

oduc

tion

lif

e o

f OC

S S

ale

78 l

ease

s.

List of Tables

Page

1. .Oilspill probability estimates for spills greater than 1,000'and 10,000 barrels resulting over the expected production life of OCS Lease Sale 78, from existing Federal leases, and from existing oil transportation in the study area. 31

2. Monte Carlo error as a function of the numberof trials and the estimated probability. 32

3. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oil spill starting at a particular location will contact a certain target within 3 days. 33

4. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting at a particular location will contact a certain target within 10 days. 38

5. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting at a particular location will contact a certain target within 30 days. 43

6. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting at a particular location will contact a certain land segment (set 1) within 3 days. 48





27

List of Tables (continued)

Page

11. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oil spill starting at a particular location will contact'a certain land segment (set 2) within 30 days. 73

12. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 (northern leases, P10- P-17, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 (northern leases, P10-P17, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil imports. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 78

13. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 (southern leases, P1-P9, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 (southern leases, P1-P9, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil and refined products. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 79

14. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (northern leases, P10- P17, E1-E5, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (northern leases, P10- P17, E1-E5, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil imports. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 80

15. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (southern leases, P1-P9, E6-E33, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (southern leases, P1-P9, E6-E33, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil and refined products. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 81

28

List of Tables (continued)Page

16. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting land segments (set 1) over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 (northern leases, P10-P17, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 (northern leases, P10-P17, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil imports. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 82

17. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting land segments (set 1) over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 (southern leases, P1-P9, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 (southern leases, P1-P9, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil and refined products. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 83

18. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting land segments (set 1) over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (northern leases, P10-P17, E1-E5, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (northern leases, P10-P17, E1-E5, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil imports. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 84

19. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting land segments (set 1) over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (southern leases, P1-P9, E6-E33, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (southern leases, P1-P9, E6-E33, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil and refined products. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 85

20. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting land segments (set 2) over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 (northern leases, P10-P17, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 (northern leases, P10-P17, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil imports. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 86

29

List of Tables (continued)

Page

21. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting land segments (set 2) over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 (southern leases, P1-P9, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 (southern leases, P1-P9, high, resource estimate) vs. crude oil and refined products. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 87

22. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting land segments (set 2) over the expected production life of the lease area, proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (northern leases, P10-P17, E1-E5, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (northern leases, P10-P17, E1-E5, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil imports. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 88

23. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting land segments (set 2) over the expected production life of the lease area* proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (southern leases, P1-P9, E6-E33, mean resource estimate) vs. proposed sale 78 and existing tracts (southern leases, P1-P9, E6-E33, high resource estimate) vs. crude oil and refined products. Probabilities are for spills 1,000 barrels and greater. 89

30

Tabl

e 1.

O

il spill probability

esti

mate

s for

spills g

reat

erthan 1

,000

and 1

0,00

0 ba

rrel

s resulting

over

the

exp

ecte

d production l

ife

of O

CS L

ease

Sale

78,

from

exi

stin

g Federal

leas

es,

and

from

existing

oil

transportation i

n th

e study

area.

Expected n

umbe

r Expected n

umber

Prob

abil

ity

of

Prob

abil

ity

ofof

spi

lls

from

of s

pill

s from

Total

Numb

er

one

or m

ore

spil

ls

one

or m

ore

spil

lspl

atfo

rms

tran

spor

tati

on

of S

pills

(pla

tfor

ms)

(transportation)

_>1,

000

H0,0

00

H.OOO

_>10

,000

M,000 MO,000

_>1,000

M0,0

00

>M>000

_>10,000

Prop

osed

action (.228)*

0.18

0.07

0.86

0.37

1.04

0.44

0.17

0.07

0.58

0.31

(mea

n estimate)

u> l~l Propos

ed a

ctio

n (1.14)*

(hig

h estimate)

0.88

0.36

4.18

1.80

5.06

2.16

0.59

0.30

0.99

0.84

Existi

ng l

eases

from

sale

s 43 and

56 (0

.129

)*

0.10

0.04

0.48

0.21

0.58

0.25

0.10

0.04

0.38

0.19

Tan

ker

tra

nsp

ort

atio

nof

crud

e oil

impo

rts

(5.9

)*

0.0

0.0

11.4

6.

84

11.4

6.

84

0.0

0.0

0.99

+ 0.

99+

Tanker

transportation

of c

rude o

il im

ports

and

refi

ned

products

(28.

7)*

0.0

0.0

55.4

33.3

55.4

33.3

0.0

0.0

0.99

+ 0.99+

*Ass

umed

amount

of o

il in b

illi

on b

arrels

Tabl

e 2.

Mo

nte

Car

lo e

rro

r as

a f

unct

ion

of

the

num

ber

of

tria

ls a

nd t

he e

stim

ated

pro

bab

ility

.

PR OB

10

NUNB

CR OF

TRIALS

2040

4fSO

100

200

500

1000

2000

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0

0.42

0.14

0.16

0.10

0.20

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

O.S

O

0.07

0.1

0

0.1

2

0.14

0.16

0.17

0.1

8

0.19

0.2

0

0.21

0.22

0.22

0.23

0.23

0.24

0.24

0.25

0.2S

0.2S

0.26

0.26

0.26

0.2

6

0.26

0.26

0.05

0.0

?

0.0

9

0.1

0

0.11

0.1

2

0.13

0.14

0.14

0.1

5

0.15

0.16

0.16

0.1

?

0.1

?

0.17

0.1

?

0.1

8

0.18

0.1

8

0.1

8

0.18

0.1

0

0.18

0.1

8

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.0

?

0,00

0.0

8

0.09

0.1

0

0.1

0

0.10

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.13

0.13

0.13

0.13

0.13

0.1

3

0.13

0.13

0.03

0.05

0.06

0.0

?

0.0

?

0.0

8

0.0

0

0.0

9

0.09

0.1Q

0.1

0

0.1

0

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.1

2

.0.1

2

0.12

0.1

2

0.12

0.12

0.03

0.05

0.06

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.08

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.1

0

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.12

0.12

0.1

2

0.12

0.12

0.02

0.03

0.04

.

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.0

6

0.0

6

0.0

?

0.07

0.07

0.07

0.0

?

0.08

0.08

0.0

8

0.00

0.0

8

0.0

8

0.0

8

0.08

0.08

0.0

8

0.0

8

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.03

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.05

0.0

5

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.06

O.O

C

q.o«

0.06

O.O

f

0.0

6

0.0

6

0.0

6

0.0

6

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.0

3

0.03

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.0

2

6.02

0.0

2

0.02

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.02

0.0

2

leve

l of

si

gnif

ican

ce

90

percent

Table 3.

-- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at

a particular location will contact

a certain target within

3 da

ys.

T arge t

P1

PI

P3

P4

P5

P6Hypothetical Spill Location

P7

P8

P«

P10 P11

P12 P13 PU P15 P16 p17 P18 £1

E2

E5

E4

E5

E6

E7

Land

0 rown Pel

i can

Marine Turtle

Onstow Bay Live Hot.

Wildlife Conscr.

Parks (May-Oct)

Park

s (Wow-Apr)

Blkbrd, Sapelo, Wo

lfGr

ay '

s Re

efCa

pe Ro

ma in

Wild.

Moni tor

Tourist Beaches, NC

Tourist Beaches, SC

Tourist Beaches, GA

Tourist Beaches, FL

Coastal Inlets, NC

Coastal Inlets, SC

ct>

Coastal Inlets, GA

Coastal Inlets, FL

Historic Si

tes

Prehi stor ic

Sites

Coastal Uaterbirds

Manatee Habitat

Salt Marsh, Wetlands

Royal

Red

Shrimp

Calico Scallop

Perey. Falc.

Migr.

Bald Eagle Nesting

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n515 n n

n 3 n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n60 34n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 8 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n/ n n ;

n n n n ,

n' n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n . n n n n n n



n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n ' n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n 1 n n n n n n 3 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n


1 n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n '

n n


n n n, n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

4 n S38n 5 3 n n n n 4 n n n 6 n n n 3 n 4 n ? n 10 2 n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n ,

n n n n n n


n n n n . n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 15 n n

Note: **

= Greater than 99.5 percent; n

= less than 0.5 percent.

Table 3.

(Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th

at an oilspill starting

at

a particular location will contact a

certain target within

3 days.

T arget

Hypofhetical Spi11 Location

E8

E9

E10 El

l ET2 £13 £U

E.I 5

£16 £1? E18 E19 £20 £21 £22 £2? £24 £25 £26 £27 £28 £29 E30 £31 £32

Land

B ro

wn Pelican

Marine Turtle

Onslow Day Live Bo

t.Wildlife Conser.

Parks (f

lay-

uct)

Parks

(Nov-Apr)

Blkhrd/ Sapelo/ Wo

lfGray's Re

efCa

pe Romain Wild.

Moni

tor

Tourist Beaches/ KC

Tourist Beaches/ SC

Tourist Beaches/ GA

Tourist Beaches/ FL

Coastal Inlets/ NC

Coastal Inlets/ SC

Coastal Inlets/ GA

Coastal Inlets/ FL

Historic Sites

Prehi stor ic

Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Manatee Habitat

Salt

Marsh/ Wetlands

Royal

Red Shrimp

Calico Scallop

Per eg.

Falc.

Higr.

Bald Eagle Nesting

n n n ri n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 6 n n





n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

J. o

1 n n 1 1 n /

n n

n n n 1 n n n 2 n 1 n 1 n 3 n n 1 n





n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n


1 o n n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n 1 n n n n





n n n n n n n n n ,

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n. n n n

n n r» n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n% n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n



n 3 n n n n n n 'n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 n n n n


Note: **

»

Greater than 99.5 percent; n


Table 3. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at


a certain tarqet within

3 days.

Target

Land

Brown PeIi can

Marine Turtle

Onslow Bay Live Bot.

Wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrd/ Sapelo/ Wolf

Gray's Reef

Cape Remain Wild.

Moni tor

Tourist Beaches* NC

Tourist Beaches* SC

Tourist Beaches/ GA

E33 T1

T2

T3

T4

T5Hypothetical Spill Location

T6

T?

T8

T9

T10 Til

T12 T13 T14

T15

T16 T17 T18 T19 T20 T2

1 T22 T23 T24

CO en

Tour

i s t Beaches*

fCoastal In

lets

/ NC

Coastal In

lets

/ SC

Coastal Inlets/ 6A

Coas

t a

I In

lets

/ FL

Histor i

c Sites

Preh istoric Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Manatee Habitat

Salt Marsh/ Wetlands

Royal Red Shrimp

Calico Scallop

Pereg. fa

Ic.

rtigr.

Bald Eagle Nesting



1 n n n 1 1 1 n n n n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 3 n n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n

n n 1 6 n 1 n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 2 n n


4 ,

10r»

55n 3 3 n

/n n

'

n 2 n n n 8 n n n 3 n 4 n 3 n 2 n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n

n n n n . n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 40n n

n 1 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n n n n n' n n n n r» n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n



n n r» n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n r» n n n n n n n n n

r» n n r» n n n n n n n n n r» n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n

n n n n n n n n r» n n n n n n n n n n n r» n n n n 6 n

n n r» n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

12 n 10 n 15 10 8 nr n n n n n n 12 n n n 13 8 n 5 n 10 n n n

12 30 10 n 1 4 4 n n n n n n 10n n n 18 n 5 n

12 n 21 n n 4

n 3 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

163 8 n

231 n 2

10n n n 1 6 n n 6

24n 7 1

15n 8 n n 4 n

17 66 15n 2 1 1 1 8 n n n n

15n n n

28n 7 n

17 n27n r» 1 n

Note:

**

= Greater than 99.S percent' n

* le

ss than 0.5 percent.

Table 3.

(Continued) --

Probabilities (expressed as


at a particular location wi

ll contact a

certain target within

3 days.

Target

U)

Hypothetical Spill Location

T25 T26 127 T28 T29 T30 T31

T32 T33 T34 T35 T36 T37 T38 T39 UO T41

T42 T43

T45 T46 TA7 T48 T49

Land

6 ro

wn Pel

i can

Marine Turtle

Onslow Oay Li

ve Bo

t.Wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Btkbrd* Sapelo* Wo

lfGray's Re

efCa

pe Ro

ma in

W i I

d.

Moni

tor

Tourist Beaches* NC

Tourist Beaches* SC

Tourist Beaches* GA

Tourist Beaches* FL

Coastal Inlets* NC

Coastal Inlet s*

SC

Coastal Inlets* GA

Coastal

I nlet s*

FLHistoric Sites

Prehistoric Si

tes

Coastal Waterbirds

Mana t ee

-Ha

bit at

Salt

Marsh* Wetlands

Roya

l Red Shrimp

Cal

i co

Se

al lop

Percy. Falc.

Migr.

Bald Eagle Nesting

n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n





14 203 n 15 109 n n

, 1 n n 5 n n n

26n n 13 n 10 n

20n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n. n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n .

n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n n n n n n n n n .

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n . n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n. n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n .

n n n n n n n


613

132n 5 4 n n n n 3 n n n

11n n n 6 n 6 n 5 n 3 3 n

8 n 9 4 n 8 6 n n n n 7 n n n11n n

,n 6 n 5 n 1 n 3 5 n

n n n n n n n .

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n .

n n




n. n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

30 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

5 n n n 2 2 1 n n n n 1 n n n 1 n n n 2 n 1 n n n n n n

n n n n n n h n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

Note: ** =


* less than 0.5 percent.

Table 3. (Continued) -~ Probabilities (expressed as percent chance)

that

, an oilspill starting

at


* certain target within

3 da

/s.

CO

Target

Land

Brown Pelican

Marine Turtle


Wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)


Gray's Reef

Cape Roma in

Wild

Moni tor

Tourist Beaches/

Tour i

s t Beaches/

Tourist Beaches/ GA

Tour i

s t Beaches/

Coastat Inlets*

Coastal Inlets/

Coastal Inlets/ GA

Coastal In

let s/

Historic Sites

Prehistoric SJtes

Coastal W a

t e r'b i

r d s

Manatee Habitat


Royal Red Shrimp

Calico Scallop

Pereg. Falc. Migr.

Ba Id

Eagle Nest ingBot.

Wolf

i.

NC SC GA FLNC SC GA FL S ds ands

i r .

ng

T50 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

. n n n n n n

T51 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

TS2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

T53 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

'

n n n n n n n n


T55



T56 T57 T58

n n ,

n n n n /

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

.n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

68 39n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n27 87 n n

Note: **

* Greater than 99.5 percent/ n


Table A. --

Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th


at


certain target within 10 days.

Target

PI

P2

P3

PA

P5

P6

Hypothetical Spi11 Location

P7

P8

P9

P10 PI 1

P12 P13 PI* P15 P16 P17 P18 El

E2

E3

EA

E5

E6

E?

Land

Brown PC

I i c

anMarine Turtle

Onslow Day Li

ve Ho

t.Wildlife Conser .

Parks (Nay-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrd* Sapelo* Wo

lfGray '

s Re

efCa

pe Ro

raai

n Wild.

Moni tor

Tourist Beaches* NC

Tourist Beacnes* SC

Tourist Beaches* GA

Tourist Beaches* PL

Coastal In

lets

* NC

GJ

Coastal Inlet s*

SC

00

Coastal Inlets, GA

Coastal In

lets

* PL

Historic Sites

Preh istoric Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Mana t ee Habi tat

Salt Marsh* Wetlands

Roya

l Red Shrimp

Cali co

Seal

lop

Pereg. Falc.

Migr.

Bald Eagle Nesting

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 515 n n

A 8 3 n 4 3 2 n n n n n n n A n n n n n 2 n 3 n61 35 n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n11n n n




n n n n n n n n n .

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n' n n n n n n n


n n n 4 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n


1 n 1 1 n 1 n n n n 5 1 n n n 1 n n n 3 n 1 n n n 1 n n


A n 1 n 3 1 1 n n n 1 2 n n n 2 n n n 2 n n n n n n n n

7 n 1 n 2 2 3 n n n n 2 n n n 2 n n n A n 2 n n n n 1 n

n n n n n n n o n n n n n n n n n ri n n n n n n n'

n n n


6 n 2 n A 2 2 n n n n 2 n n n 3 n n n 3 n n n n n n n n

223

22 AO n 21 11 ri n n 920n n n 21 n .n n 17 n 18 n 5 n 15 9 n

2 1 3 1 n 3 1 n n n 6 2 n n n 2 n n n A n 2 n n n n 1 n

n n n 2 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n 1 n n

A 5 3 n 6 n n n n A n n n n n n 8 n n 1 1 2 n A n n n 2

1 3 1 n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n n n n 1 n 1 n18n n

Note: **

s Greater than 99.5 percent; n

s less than 0.5 percent.

Table

it.

(Continued) --


percent chance) th


at a

particular location wi

ll contact

a certain ta

rget

within 10 days.

10

Target

Land

Brown Pelican

Marine Turtle

Onslow Bay Live Bo

t.

Wildlife Co

nser

. Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (How-Apr)

Blkbrd/ Sapelo/ Wo

lf

Gray's Reef

Cape

Remain Wild

Moni tor

Tourist Beaches/

Tour

i s

t Beaches/

Tour

i s

t Beaches/

Tourist Beaches/ fL

Coastal Inlets/ NC

Coastal Inle

ts/

Coastal Inlets/

Coastal Inlets/

Historic Sites

Prehi stor ic

S ites.

Coastal Uaterbirds

Manatee Habitat

Salt

Marsh/ Wetlands

Royal

Red Shrimp

Calico Sea

I lop

Pereg. Fa

lc.

Migr.

Bald Eagle Nest ing

Hypothetical Sp

ill

Location

E3

E9

E10

E11

£12

£13

£14

£15

£16

£17

£18

£19

£20 £21

£22

£23 £2

4 £25

£26

£27

£28

£29 £30 £3

1 £3

2

Bot.

wolf

I.

NC SC GA

fL

NC SC GA fL 'S . ds ands

i ir. ng

a 3 S n 0 1 1 1 i n n n 3 2 n n 6 6 n 2 1 6 n 7 n20 1 1


2 3 1 n 2 n n 1 4 n n n n 1 n n n 2 n n n 2 n 2 n 7 n n

1 3 1 n 1 n n n 3 n n n n n' n n n 2 n n n 1 n 1 n 3 n n

1 2 1 n 1 n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 n 4 n n

5 7 3 n 3 2 2 1 1 n n n n 3 1 n n 5 n 2 n 4 n 6 n 1 2 n

15 21 11 n 5 7 4 1 3 n n n n 101 n n 16 n 7 n 12 n 19 n n 7 n

1 3 n n 1 n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 .

n 2 n n

n 1 n n n " n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n .

n n 2 n n

1 2 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 n 1 n n

1 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 n n n n


3 n 2 n 2 2 2 n n n n n n n 2 n n 1 2 2 0 1 n 3 n n 1 n

12 1 8 n107 6 n

.n n n n n 1 7 n n 3 8 6 n 5 n 10 n n 3 n

2 n 1 n 1 1 n n n n h n n n 1 n n n 1 1 n n n 1 n n n n

4 n 2 n 2 1 2 n n n n n n n 2 n n n 2 2 n 1 n 2 n n 1 n



4 n 2 n 3 2 1 n n n n n n n 2 n n 1 2 2 n 1 n 3 n1 n 1 n


1 1 1 n 1 1 1 nr n n n n n n 1 n n 1 1 1 n 1 n 2 n n n n

1 3 1 n 1 n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 n 1 n n

3 6 2 n 2 1 1 n 1 n n n n 2 n n n 4 n 1 n 3 n 5 n n 1 n

10 157 n 3 5 3 1 3 n n n n 7 1 n n 11 n 4 n 9 n 13 n

'n 5 n

1 5 1 n 1 n n 1 3 n n n n 1 n n n 2 n n n 1 n 2 n 3 n n

Note

: ** -

Greater th

an 99.5 percent' n

* le

ss than 0.

5 percent

Table 4.

(Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as


at



T a rye t

Land

Brown PeIi can

Ma r ine

Turtle

Onslow Bay Live Hot.

Wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Get)

Parks (Nov-Apr)


Gray's Reef

Cape Romain Wild

Moni tor

T ouri st

Beaches/

Tourist Beaches/

Tourist Beaches/

Touri s t Beaches/

Coastal Inlets/

Coastal Inlets/

Coastal Inlets/

Coastal Inlets/

Historic Sites

Prehi stor i

c Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Manatee Habitat


Royal Red Shrimp

Calico Seal lop

Percy. Falc. Migr.

Bald Eagle Nesting

£33 T1

12

T3

T4

T5


T6

T7

T8

T9

T10 Ti

l T12 T13 T14 T15 T16 T17 T18 T19

T20 T2

1 122 121 T24

Hot .

Wolf

1.

'

NC SC GA f L

NC

SCGA

fL s as ands

i r. rig

n 2 n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 n 4 n n

6 n 2 n 4 2 2 n n n n 2 n n n 3 n n n 2 n n n n n n n n

7 n 2 n 6 3 3 n n n 1 2 n n n 3 n n n 3 n 1 n n n n n n

1 n 1 n n 1 1 n n n 6 1 n n n 1 n n n 4 n 1 n n n n n n

9 2108 n 105 n n n 11 10 n n n 8 n n n

12n 7 n 1 n 4 5 n

1 n 1 5 n 1 n n n n 1 1 n n n 1 n n o 1 n 1 n n n 2 n n

3131

63 n 5 5 n n n n 3 n n n

1 1 n n n 5 n 6 n 6 n 5 4 n

5 6 3 n 6 n n n n 5 n n n n n n 8 n n 1 1 2 n 5 n n n 2

4 6 2 n 4 1 1 n n 2 n n 1 n n n 6 n n 1 1 1 n 4 n 2 n 1

3 3 3 n 2 1 n n 1 n n n 2 1 n n 3 2 n 1 1 3 n 3 n47n n

4 6 3 n 4 1 n 1 6 n n n n 2 n n 1 5 n 1 n 4 n 5 n 6 1 n

7 2 5 n 7 4 4 n n n n n n 1 4 n n 3 4 4 n 4 n 3 n n 3 n

1 1 n n 1 n n n .

n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 n n n n



n ,

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 4 n n n


1 1 1 n 1 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 n n n n

1 n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n n n n n n. 1

6 n n

4 1 3 n 2 ? 1 n n n n n n n 2 n n 1 2 2 n 1 n 3 n n 1 n

25n

17 n21 14 11 n n n n n n n 17 n n 119 14n 8 n

15n 1 1 n

28 38 19 n 710 8 1 3 n. n n n 18

1 n n31

113 n23n

35 n n10n

513 4 n 3 2 1 1 6 n n n n 3 n n n 6 n 2 n 5 n 7 n 1 2 n

35 13 19n

352 1 6

17n n n 5 9 n n

12 37n 104

26 n

24n 6 9 1

36 72 24n

104 4 6 17 n n n n

22n n n

44n 13 n

29 n

43n n 6 n

Note: ** *



Table 4. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) th

at an

oilspill starting

at

a particular location wi

ll contact

a certain 'target

within 10

days.

Target

Land

Grown Pe

Ii can

Marine Turtle

Onslow da

y Li

ve Bot.

Wildlife Conser

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrd/ Sapelos

Gray *

s Reef

Cape Ro

raai

n Wild

Moni

tor

Tour

i s t Beaches/

Tourist Beaches/

Tourist Beaches/

Tour

i s

t Beaches/

Coastal In

lets

/ Coastal Inle

ts/

CoastaI In

lets

/ Coastal In

lets

/ Historic Sites

Prehistoric Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Manatee Habitat

Salt Marsh/ We

t Royal

Red

Shrimp

Cal

i co Se

al lop

Pereg. Fa

lc.

Migr.

Bald Eagle Nesting

Hypothetical Sp

ill

Location

T25

T26

T27

T28

T29

T30

T31

T32

T33

T34

T35

T36

T37 T38

T39

T40

T41

T42

T/,3 T4

4 T4

5 T46

T47

T48

T49

Bot.

Wolf

1.

NC SC GA FL

NC SC GA FL s ds ands

1 r. ng

2 4 2 n 2 n n 1 5 n n n n 1 n n 1 3 n 1 n 2 n 3 n10 n n


1 1 1 n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 n 2 n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n ,n n n

n 1 n n 1 n n n. n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n

26 32* n

26 14 11 n n 4 n n 9 n n n37n n 172 14 n

31n 1 n n

n' n n n n n n n n



n n n 6 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n

n n n 2 n n n n. n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n rr n n n n n n



1 n 1 7 n 1 n n n n 1 1 n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 n n n 3 n n

17 183

85n

11 9 n n n n 7 n n n20n n n 11 n

14n 12n

188 n

224

207 n

20 12n n n

15 19 n n n

22 n n n21n 15 n 2 n 6

11n

n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n



n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n . n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n 1 n n 1 n n n n 2 1 n n n 1 n n n 2 n n n n n n n n

41n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 n n n n n n

22n 2 n 7 5 6 n n n 1 5 n n n 5 n n n 8 n 3 n n n n 1 n


Note

: **

s Greater th

an 99.5 percent/ n

= less than 0.

5 percent

Table

< .

(Continued) Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) that an oitspill starting

at a particular location wi

ll contact

a certain ta

rget

within 10

days,

£»

ro

Target

Land

Brown Pe

I i

can

Marine Turtle

Onslou Sax Live Oo

t.

Wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrd* Sapelo* Wo

lf

Gray's Reef

Cape

Remain Mild.

Monitor

Tourist Beaches* NC

Tourist Beaches* SC

Tourist Beaches* GA

Tourist Beaches* FL

Coastal Inlets* NC

Coastal In

let s*

SC

Coastal Inlets* GA

Co

ast

a I

Inlets* FL

Historic Sites

Prehi st

or ic

Sites

Coastal Wateroirds

Manatee Habi tat


Royal

Red

Shrimp

Calico Seal lop

Pereg. Falc.

Migr

. Bald Eagle Nesting

Hypothetical Spill

Location

T50

T51

T52

T53

T5A

T55

T56 T5

7 T5

8n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n




n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n. n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n . n n

1 3 1 n 1 1 1 n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n 1 n8

040 n n

1 2 1 n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n?

78

9 n n

Note:

**

= Greater th

an 99.5 percent/ n

= less than 0.

5 percent.

Table 5.

-- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an

oilspill starting

at


a certain tarqet within 30 da

ys.

Target

PI

P2

P3

PA

P5

P6


P7

P8

P9

P10 P11 P12 P13 P14 P15 H16 P17 P18 El

E2

£3

E4

E5

E6

E7

L an

d Brown Pel ican

Marine Turtle

Onslow Bay

Live

Dot.

Wildlife Co

nser

.Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrd/ Sapelo/ Wo

lfGray '

s Re

e f

Cape

Remain Wi

ld.

Moni

tor

Tourist Beaches/ NC

Tourist Beaches/ SC

Tourist Beaches/ GA

Tourist Beaches/ FL

Coastal Inlets/ NC

Coastal Inlet s/

SC

Coastal Inlets/ GA

Coastal In

let s/

FL

Historic Sites

Prehi

s tor ic

Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Manatee Habitat


Royal Ked Shrimp

Calico Se

al lop

.Pereg. Fa

lc.

Migr.

Oald Eagle Nesting

3 1 2 1 1 1 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 1 n 1 n 1516 n n

13

13 9 1 8 7 5 n n n n n n n 10n n 1 3 2 3 1 4 1

62 36 n n

n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 13 ' n n n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n ; i n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n .

n n n n n 1 n n n

n .


n n n 2 n n n n n n- n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

.n n n n

n n n n n n *


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n. n n n n n n n n n

3 2 1 8 1 1 i n n 1 1 1 n n n 1 2 n n 2 n 2 n 2 n 1 n n

2 n 2 6 n 2 1 n n n 2 2 n n n 2 n n n 2 n 2 n 1 n 2 1 n


2 2 1 n 2 1 n n n 6 2 n n n 2 n n n 4 n 2 n n n 1 1 n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

5 1 n 3 2 2 n n n 1 2 n n 2 n n n 3 n 1 n n n n n n

14

1 n 4 5 5 n n n n 4 n 3 n n n 6 n 2 n n n n 1 n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n n n n n« n n n

8 n 2 n 5 3 2 n n n n 3 n 4 n n n 4 n n n n n n n n

36 6 30 40n 30 14 n. n n 19 29

n 29 0 n n29n 27 n 7 n 16 15 n

4 1 4 1 n 4 1 n n n 8 4 n n n 3 n n n 6 n 3 n n n n 1 n

3 n 3 4 n 3 1 n n n 2 3 n n n 2 n n n 2 n 2 n n n 2 1 n

21

15 127

192 2 n n 12n 1 3 n n 1

23n n 5 2 9 n

20n 1 n 4

8 9 4 4 6 3 1 n n 2 n n 3 n n n 9 1 n 2 1 3 n 8 n19n n

Note:

* *



Table 5. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th


at


a certain target within 30 days.

Target

Land

Brown Pel

i can

Marine Turtle

Onslow Bay Live Dot.

Wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)


Gray's Reef

Cape Roma in

Wild.

Honitor

Tourist Beaches/ NC

Tourist Beaches/ SC

Tourist Beaches/ 6A

Tourist Beaches/ FL

Coastal Inlets/ NC

Coastal Inlets/ SC

Coastal Inlets/ 6A

Coastal Inlets/ FL

Historic Sites

Prehistoric Sites

Coastal Uaterbirds

Manatee Habitat


Royal Red Shrimp

Calico Scallop

Pereg. Falc. Migr.

Bald Eagle Nestiny

E3Hypothetical Spill Location

E9

E10 E1

1 £12 E13 £14 E15 £16 £17 F18 £19 £20 £2

1 £22 £23 £24

£25 £26 E27 £28 £29 £30 £31 £32

25 12 161

165 2 3 S n n n 9 4 n n

IS 14n 7 3

16n

21n

273 1

1 1 1 2 1 n n n n n 1 n n n n n n 1 n 1 n 1 n 1 n 2 n n

14 11 10t

10i 1 3 9 n n n 3 4 n n 5

11 n 3 110 n 13 n 16 2 n

14 12 191 9 2 1 3 8 n n n 2 5 n n 4

12n 4 1

11n 13 n 112

. n

10 8 7 1 7 2 1 2 6 n n n 2 3 n n 4 8 n 2 1 8 n 10 n14

1 n

19

17 14n

106 4 3 7 n n n 1 9 2 n 2

181 a n 15 n 20n 8 5 n

31 31 ?3n

14 136 4

10 n n n n

193 n 1

29 214n-

25 n34n 6

10 n

11 129 1 7 2 1 3 6 n n n 2 4 n n 4

10n 3 n 9 n

12n

132 n

9 7 7 1 5 2 1 1 4 n n n 2 2 n n 4 7 n 3 1 7 n 9 n10

1 n

8 9 6 n 4 2 1 2 5 n n n 2 3 n n 3 6 n 2 n 6 n 8 n 9 1 n

11 107 1 5 3 2 1 4 n n n 1 4 1 n 2

101 4 n 8 n 11 n 8 3 n

7 5 5 1 4 2 1 1 3 n n n 1 2 1 n 2 5 1 2 n 5 n 6 n 6 1 n

157

11n 9 7 4 1 3 n n n 1 5 5 n 1 8 5 7 n 8 n 13 n 5 4 n

276

18 n 19 14 9 1 2 n n n n 514n n

10 13 14 n 13 n22n 3 7 n

137 9 1 ft 6 3 1 3 n n n 1 3 5 n 1 7 5 6 1 6 n in n 4 3 n

156

10 n 9 6 5 1 2 n n n n 3 6 n 1 6 6 7 n 6 n11 n 5 3 n

124 7 n 7 3 3 1 2 n n n 1 1 3 n 1 4 3 3 n 4 n 5 n S 1 n

8 4 6 1 5 3 2 1 2 n n n 1 2 2 n 1 4 2 3 1 4 n 6 n 5 1 n

166

10 n 107 4 1 3 n n n 3 6 n 1 6 5 6 n 8 n 1? n

. 4 3 n

7 6 5 1 4 2 2 1 3 n n 1 3 1 n 2 6 n 3 1 6 n 8 H 7 1 n

12 8 9 1 7 4 3 1 4' n n 1 4 3 n 1 8 3 5 n 8 n 11 n 6 2 n

11 10 8 1 6 2 1 3 5 n n 1 5 n n 3 9 n 3 1 8 n11n 9 1 n

16 17 13n 8 5 3 3 7 n n 1 9 1 n 2

151 5 1

14 n 17 n 9 4 n

29 28 21n

12 116 4

10n n 1

162 n 2

27 211 n24n

32n 7

10n

14 15 10 1 8 3 1 3 9 n n n 2 6 n n 5

13n 4 1

11n

15n

132 n

Note:

**



Table 5. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th

at,

an oilspill starting

at


certain tarqet within 30

days.

Targe t

633 T1

12

T3

T4


T6

T7

T8

T9

T10 T11

T12 T13 T14

T15 T16 T17 T18 T19 T20 T2

1 T22 T23 T24

Land

Brown Pe

l ic

anMarine Turtle

Onslow Bay Li

ve Bo

t.Wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrd* Sapelo* Wo

lfGr

ay '

s Re

efCa

pe Romain Wild.

Moni tor

Tourist Beaches* NC

Tourist Beaches* SC

Tourist Beaches* GA

Tourist Beaches* FL

Coastal Inle

ts*

NC45

, Coastal Inlets* SC

en

Coastal In

lets

* GA

Coasta 1

Inlets* FL

Historic Si

tes

Prehistor i

c Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Manatee Habitat

Salt Marsh* w.etlands

Roya

l Red Shrimp

Cali

co Scallop

Pereg. Falc.

i1i gr .

Da Id

Eagle Nest ing

9 tt 7 1 6 2 n 1 5 n n n j 2 n n 5 6 n 2 1 6 n 9 n13

1 n

7 n 5 n 5 3 2 n n n n 2 n n n 4 n n' n 3 n n n n n n n n

10 n 3 n 7 4 3 n n n 1 3 n n n 5 n n n 5 n 1 n n n n n n

2 n 1 n n 1 1 n n n 6 1 n n n 1 n n n 4 n 1 n n n n.

1 n

173

15 8 n 15 6 n n n 19 15 n n n13 n n n21n

12 n 1 n 4 8 n

4 1 5 6 n 5 n n n n 4 5 n n n 4 n n n 5 n 3 n 1 n 3 1 n

20 179

651

14 8 n n n 311 n n n21n n n 12n

15n

13n

168 n

21 16 127

192 2 n n

13n n 3 n n 1

24n n 4 2 8 n

20n n n 4

U 148 5

123 2 n n 7 n n 3 n n n 16 n n 3 2 5 n

13n 4 n 2

14 10 102 9 4 1 1 2 1 n n 7 2 n n 12 6 n 4 2 9 n. 13n

531 1

21 17 161

134 2 4

11n n n 3 7 1 n 6 13 o 6 2

16n

21n 163 n

219

14n

159 7 1 3 n n n n 6 8 n 1

127

10 n 15 n20

»

n 5 6 n

7 7 5 1 3 2 1 1 3 n n n 1 3 n n 2 5 n 2 1 5 n 7 n 6 1 n

n n n 1 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n n n n n n n h n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 5 n n n


9 6 6 1 5 3 1 1 ^ n n h 1 3 2 n 1 6 1 4 n 5 n 8 n 6 3 n

21 ;

12 n106 6 n 1 n n n n 1 9 n n 1 9 6 2 1 n 2 1

' 20

n n

15 610n V 6 4 1 2 n n n n 3 5 n 1 7 5 6 n 7 n 11n 5 3 n

374

24 n 27 19 14 n 1 n n n n 321 n n 524 19 n 13 n22n 3 2 n

A3 46 29n 15 14 10 4 9 n n n n

253 n 1

442 19 n

35n

49n 4

14n

23 ?5 171

13 6 3 6 14n n n 1

121 n 3

22n 7 1

19n

25n 9 6 n

50 22 271

435 2 9

20n n n 9

12 n n 17 45n 135

35 n37n

14 101

52 76 34n 197 6

10 23n n n 1

271 n 2

57n

171

42n

57n 5 9 .n

Note: **

= Greater than 99.5 percent;

n *

less than 0.5 percent.

Table S.

(Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance)

that, an oilspill starting

at

a particular location wilt contact a

certain target within 30

days.

Target

Land

Brown Pel ican

Marine Turtle

Onslow Day Live Bot

Wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrds Sapelo* Wolf

Gray's Reef

Cape Remain Wild

Moni tor

Tourist Beaches*

Tourist Beaches*

Tour i

s t Beaches *

Tourist Beaches* FL

CoastaI Inlet s*

NC

Coastal Inlets*

Coastal Inlets*

Coastal Inlets*

Historic Sites

P reh istoric Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Manatee Habitat


Royal Red Shrimp

Calico Scallop

Pereg. Falc. Miyr.

Bald Eagle Nesting


T25 T26

T27 T28 T29 T30 T31

T32

T33 T34 T35 T36 T37 T38 T39 T40 T4

1 T42 T43 T44 T45

T46 T47 T48 T49

Bot.

Wolf

i. - NC

> sc

. GA

FL

NC SC GA FL

s ds

* ands

) K- ng

15 11 101 9 2 1 3 9 n n n 4 3 n n 7

IDn 4 2

10 n14n

162 n

2 2 1 5 1 1 1 n n n n n n n n 1 1 n n 1 n 1 n 2 n 2 n n

8 7 6 1 5 2 1 1 4 n n n 1 3 n n 2 7 n 3 1 6 n 9 n 9 2 n

2 1 1 5 1 n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n 1 n 1 n 1 n 1 n n

4 3 2 6 3 1 1 n n 2 1 1 1 n n 1 it n n 1 n 2 n 3 n 1 n 1

37 40 133

34 16 12n n 8 n n

12n n n

46 1 n193

19n

40 n 3 n 1

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n ,

n n n n n

1 n 1 2 n 1 n n n n 1 1 n n n 1 n n n 1 n n n n n 1 n n

3 1 2 9 n 2 1 n n n 1 2 n n n 2 n n n 2 n 2 n 1 n 3 1 n

3 3 2 9 2 1 1 n n 1 1 1 1 n n 1 2 n n 2 n 2 n 3 n 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n"


n n n 2 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n

2 n n 1 1 n n n n 1 1 n n 1 n 1 n 1 n 1 n n


5 1 510n 5 1 n n n 4 4 n n n (. n n n 4 n 4 n 1 n 5 ? n

38 22 17 86 225 13n n n 5

19n n n

37 n n n

211

28n

24n

28 13n

326

257 n

26 15n n n

22 25n n n

27 n n n

31n

20 n 2 n 6

14n

n n n 1 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 n n o n n n n n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 'n n n n n n n n n n n n


1 n 1 n n 1 n n n n 3 1 n n n 1 n n n 2 n 1 n n n n n n

44n n n 1 n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n 1 n n n n n n

31n 3 n 9 8 7 n n n 1 7 n n n 7 n n n

11n 4 n n n n 1 n

2 n n n n 1 n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n

Note: ** * Greater than 99.5 percent* n

a less than 0.5 percent.

Table 5.


percent chance) th


at a particular location will contact a


Target

Land

Brown Peli can

Marine Turtle

Onslou Bay Live Bot.

UiIdli fe

Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrd* Sapelo* Wolf

Gr ay

' s Ree f

Cape Komain Wild.

Noni tor

Tourist Beaches/ NC

Tourist beaches* SC

Tourist Beaches* GA

Tourist Beaches* FL

Coastal Inlets* NC

CoastaI Inlets* SC

Coastal Inlets* GA

Coastal Inlets* FL

Historic Sites

Prehistoric Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Manatee Habitat


Royal Red Shrimp

Calico Scallop

Pereg. Falc. Migr.

Bald Eagle Nesting





T5A n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

. n n n n n n n n n


Hypothetical Sp

ill

Location

T56 T57

T58

n n. n n n n n n n n n '


11 6 8 1 6 3 3 n 1 n n n n 1 7 n 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 380 I?n n

218 14n 9 R 6 n 1 n n n n n 11 n n 1 8 5 A 1 n 2

28 89n n

Note: ** a Greater than 99.5 percent* n


Table 6.

-- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at a particular location will contact a

certain land segment (set 1)

within

3 days.

Land Segment


PI

P2

P3

PA

PS

P6

P7

P8

P9

P10 Pit

P13 P13 PU P15 P16 PI 7 P18 £1

E2

E3

E4

E5

E6

E7

5 .

nn

nn

nn

nn

-'n

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nZ

nn

nn

6 n

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nZ

nn

nn

No

tes

: **

=

Gre

ate

r th

an

99.5

p

erc

en

t;

n a

less

tha

n

0.5

p

erc

en

t.

Row

s w

ith

all

valu

es

less

than

0.5

p

erc

en

t a

re

no

t sh

ow

n.

CO

Ta

ble

6

. (C

on

tin

ue

d)

Pro

bab

ilit

ies

(exp

ressed

as

p

erc

en

t ch

an

ce)

tha

t an

o

ils

pil

l sta

rtin

gat

a p

art

icu

lar

loc

ati

on

w

ill

co

nta

ct

a cert

ain

la

nd

seg

men

t (s

et

1)

wit

hin

3

days.

La

nd

S

egm

ent

Hyp

oth

eti

cal

Sp

ill

Lo

ca

tio

nE

8 E

9 E

10

Ell

E12

E

13

EU

£15

E16

t1

7

£18

£1

9

E20

E

21

12

2

E23

£2

4 E

25

E26

E

27

£28

£29

E30

E

31

E32

18

nn

nn

nn

1n

-',n

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

No

tes

: **

=

Gre

ate

r th

an

9

9.5

p

erc

en

t;

n *

les

s

than

0

.5

perc

en

t.

How

s w

ith

a

ll

valu

es

les

s

than

0

.5

perc

en

t a

re

no

t sh

ow

n.

10

Table 6. (Continued) Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) th


at


ll contact

a certain la

nd segment (s

et

1)

within

3 days.

Land Segment

E33 T1

T2

T3

TA

T5Hypothetical Sp

ill

Location

T6 .T7

T8

19

T10 T1

1 T12 T13 TU T15 H6 T17 T18 T19 T20 T21 T22 T23 T2A

3 915 16 17 18 19 20

Notes: **

s

Greater th

an 99

.5 percent; n

= less than 0.

5 percent.

Rows wi

th al

l values le

ss th

an 0.5 percent are

not

show

n.

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

1 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

. n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n.

n

n 4 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n 5 8

n n n n n11

1^ n

n n n n n n n n

n n 112

3 ,

n n n

n n n n 215

n n

en

O

Table 6. (Continued) Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th

at an

oilspill starting

at


certain la

nd segment (set 1)

within

3 days.

Land Segment

1 2 5 6 3 913 14 26


T25 T26 T27 T28 T29 T3U T31 T32 T33 T34 T35 T36 T37 T38 T39 T40 T41

TA2 T43 T<U T45 TA6 T47 T48 TA9

n n

nn

nn

nn

n n

n 131 n

Notes: ** =

Greater th

an 99.5 percent; n

= less than 0.5

percent.

Hows

with all

values less th

an 0.5 percent are

not

show

n.

n n

nn

n n

n n

nn

n n

30

1 n

Table 6. (Continued) Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at


a certain land segment (set 1)

within

3 days.

Land Segment


T5U T5

1 T52

T53 T54

T55 T56 T57 T5

8

Notes: **

= Greater than 99.5 percent* n

» less than 0.5 percent.

Rows with all values less than 0.5 percent.are not shown.

en

ro

Table 7. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th

at an.oilspill starting

at



within 10

days.

P1

P2

P3

P4

P5

P6Land Segment

1 2 3 4 5 612 24

Notes: ** =



Rows with all

values le

ss than U.5 percent are not shown.


P7

P8

P9

P10 P11

P12 P13 PU P15 P16 P17 P18 E1

E2

E3

E4

£5

E6

E7

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n 3 1

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n. n n n n n '

n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n- n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n 2 2 n n n n n n n

2 5 1 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n.

n n n n n n n n n n

n 3 3 n n n n n n n

n

n n 211

a n n n n

n n n t 1 n a n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n 3 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n

en U)

Table 7.

(Continued) Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



within 10 da

ys.

Ldru

J Segment

E8.Hypothetical Spill Location

E9

E10 E1

1 E12 E13 £14 £15 16 E17 E18 E19 E20 £21 E22 £23 £24

E25 £26 £27 E28 £29 £30 £31

£32

14 15

16'

17 18 19 20

Notes: **

» Greater th

an 99

.5 percent; n

» less than 0.

5 percent.

Rows wi

th al

l values less th

an 0.5

percent are

not

show

n.

1 2 4 2 n n n

n n n n n n n

n n 1 1 n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n 1 2 I n

n n n 2 7 6 n

n '

n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n.

n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n 1 1

n n n n n 5 6

n n n n n 1 1

n n n n n 1 2

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n 1 3

n n n n n n n

n n n n n 1 n

n n n n n n n

n n n n 2 1 n

n n n 1 5 3 n

n n n 1 n n n

en

Table 7. (Continued) Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th

at an

oilspill starting

at


ll contact a

certain land segment (s

et 1)

within 10 days.

E33

T1

T2

T3

TA

T5

en

01

Land Seyment

2 3 4 5 6 8 9 12 13

U 15 16

17 18 19 20

21

Notes: **

=

Greater th

an 99.5 percent; n

* less than 0.

5 percent.

Rows wi

th all

values le

ss than 0.5 percent ar

e no

t shown.

Hypothetical Spill

Location

T6

T7

T8

T9

T10 T11 T12 T13 TU T15 T16 T17 T18 T19 T20 T21

T22 T23 T2A

n n n n n n n n n n n n rt n n n n

3 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

3 A n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n 2 5 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n n n 1 6 n M n n rt n n n n n

n/,

n n n n n n 3 2.

n '

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n 0 1 2 n n n n n.

n n n

n n n n n n n n n 1 1 2 n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 1 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 A 2 n





n n n n n n n n .

n n n n n n n n n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 2 n

n n n n n n n ri n n n n n n 816 1

n n n n n n n 'n n n n n 219 7

n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 2 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n 1 A18

112 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 925 2 n n

Table 7.

(Continued) Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) that an oilspili starting

at


a certain land segment (s

et

1)

within 10

days.

Land Segment


T25 T26 T27

T28 T29 130 13

1 T32 TJ3 134 T35

T36 T37 T38 T39 UO T4

1 U2 U3 T4

4 T45 U6 T47 U8 U9

1 2 3 t, 5 6 7 6 912 13 U 16

17 26

n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 n


h n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n . n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n' n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 221

3 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n ri n n

n.'

n n n n n

n1

n n.

n n n n ri n





n n n n .

n n n n n n n n n n n



n n n n n 2 1 4 9 n n n n n n

n n 1 312

6 .n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n




n n n n n n n h n n n n n n

2 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 38

511

2 n n n n n n n n n n n


Ok

Notes: **

=

Greater than 99.5 percent/ n

» less than U.5 percent.

Rows with all

values less than 0.5 percent are not shown.

I

\

Table 7.

(Continued) Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at


a certain land segment (set

1)

within 10 days.

Land Segment


T50 T51

T52

T53 T54 T55 T56 Ti>? T58

23

nnnnnnnln

Notes: ** = Greater than 99.5 percent; n

= le


Rows with all

values le

ss than 0.5 percent are

not shown;

en

Tabl

e 8. --


percent chance)

that

an oilspill starting

at a

particular location will contact a

certain la

nd segment (s

et 1)

within 30

days.

PI

P2

P3

P4

P5

P6

en

00

Land Segment

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 910 11 13

.14 15 16 20 21 22 23 24 26

Notes: ** »

Greater th

an 99.5 percent; n

= less than 0.5

perc

ent,

Rows wi

th al

l values less th

an 0.5 percent are

not

show

n.


P7

P8

P9

P10 P1

1 P12

P13 P14 P15 P16 P1

7 P18 El

E2£3

E4

E5

E6

E7

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 1 n n n

n n n n n n n ;n n n n n n n n 1 2 2 5 2 '

n

n n n n n . n n n n n n n n n n n n n n. n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n



n n n.


n '

n n n n n n n n




n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n


n 3 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

3 9 I n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

n n n .n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n 1 716 10

1 n n n n n n n n n n n .

n n n

n n n 2 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n 1 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n 1 1 311

5 n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 2 3 1 1 1 n n n n n n

Table

8. (Continued) --


percent chance) th


at


certain la

nd segment (s

et 1>

within 30

days.

Land Segment

G8Hypothetical Spill Location

E9

E10 Ell £12 E13 £14 £15 E16 £17 E18 E19 £20 £21 E22 £23 £24 £25

£26, E27 £28 £29 E30 £3

1 £32

13 14 15 16

17

18 19 20

21

Notes: ** s

Greater th

an 99.5 percent; n

* less than 0.

5 percent.

Rows wi

th al

l values le

ss th

an 0.5 percent are

not

shown.

1 3 6 9 6 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n

n 1 2 4 5 1 n n n

n n 2 3 5 3 1 n n

n n 2 3 3 2 n n n

n n n 1 4 7

5 n n

n n n 1 6 13

10 1 n

n 1 1 2 4 3 1 n n.

n 1 1 3 2 2 n n n

n n 1 1 2 2 1 n n

n n n 1 3 3 2 n n

n n 1 1 1 1 2 n n

n n n 1 1 3 ,5 4 n

n n n n 1 311 1

0 1

n n n 1 1 2 4 4 1

n n n n 1 2 4 7 1

n n n 1 1 1 2 4 2

n n 1 1 1 1 1 2 n

n n n n 2 2 5 6 n

n n 1 1 1 2 1 n n

n n n 1 2 2 4 2 n

n n 1 2 4 3 1 'n n

n n n 1 4 7 3 n n

n n 1 1 6 12 8

' n n

n 1 2 3 4 4 1 n n

en

10

Table

8. (Continued) Probabilities (e

xpre

ssed

as percent

chance)

that an oilspill starting

at

a particular lo

cati

on will contact

a certain

land

se

gmen

t (s

et

1)

within

30 da

ys.

E33 Tl

T2

T3

T4

T5

cn o

Land Segment

2 3 t, 5 6 7 a 910 11 13

13 U 15 16

17 18

19 20 21 22 23

Notes: **

=

Greater th

an 99

.5 percent; n

» less than 0.5

percent.

Rows

with all

values less th

an 0.5

percent are

not

shown.

Hypothetical Spill

Location

T6

T7

T8

T9

T10 T11 T12 T13 T14 T15 T16 T17 T18 T19 T2Q T2

1 T22 T23 T24

n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 2 3 2 1 n n n n n

5 3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

5 4 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n ri n n n n

n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n 1 6 7 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n 1 2 .

1 n n n n n n n n n n n.

n n n n n n

n n 1 1 3 2 4 8 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n h 1 311

5 n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 1 5 5 1 n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 2 4 5 2 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 2 5 7 A 2 n "

n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 A 9 5 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 1 2 1 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n

'n n n n n n.

n n n n n n n




n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 2 2 1 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n '

n n n 1 5 8 A 1

n n n n n n .

n n n n n n n n 1 1 2 A 5 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 111 2

2 2 n n

n n n

n n n n n *

n n n n n n 1 624

It1 n n n

n n n n n.

n n n n n n n n 1 2 7 8 A n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 721 1

5 4 n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n'

n n 1 316 29 3 n n n n

Table 8. (Continued) Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) th

at an

oilspill starting

at


ll contact a

certain la

nd segment (s

et 1)

wi thi

n 30 days.

Land Segment


' T25

T26 T2

7 T28 T29 T30 T3

1 T32 T33 T34 T35

T36

T37 T38 T39 T40 T41

T42 T43 T44

T45 T46 T47 T48 T49

CT»

1 t 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 16 17

IS

19

26

Notes: **

- Greater than 99.5 percent; n

= less than O.S percent.

Rows with all


n n n n n n n n n n n 1 3 3 5 2 n n

n n n n n h n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 2 2 1 n

n n n n n n .

n n n 1 n n n n n n n n

n '

n n n n n n n n 2 1 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 524 5 1 n n n n n

1



h n n n 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n

h n n n n n n n n 1 1 n n n n n n n


n .

n n n n n




n n n 1 2 1 n n n n n1

n n n n n n n

n n n 2 3 8 5 811

n n n n n n n n n

n n 2 8 157 n n n n n n n n n n n n






3 2 1 n n nt n'

n n n n n n n n n n3?

71

5 4 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 5

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

Tat.

'le

8. (Continued) Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) th

at an

oilspill starting

at

a particular lo

cati

on will contact

a certain

land segment

(set

1)

wi

thin 30 days. Hypo

thet

ical

Spill

Location

T5(J T51

T52

T53

T5A

T55

T56

T57

t58

Land

Se

gment

1? 19 20 21 22 23

Notes; ** =

Greater th

an 99.5 percent; n

* less than 0.

5 percent.

Rows

wi

th al

l values less th

an 0.5 percent .a

re no

t sh

own.

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

1 1 1 2

3 2 1

n 1 4 7 7 1 n

cr»

ro

Table 9.

-- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th


at



et 2)

within

3 days.

Land Segment


PI

P2

P3

P«

P5

P6

P7

P8

P9

P10 P11 R12 P13 P1« P15 P16 P17 P18 El

E?

ET

£4

E5

E6

E7

2 nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnlnnnnnnnnn

4 nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn4nnnn

Notes:

** =



Rows with all values less than 0.5 percent are not shown.

en CO

Table 9. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that «n oilspill starting

at a

particular location will contact


within

3 day s.

'

Land Segment

18 19

£8

ri n


E9

£10 £11

E12 £13 EU E15 £16 E17 E18 E19 £20 E21

£22 £23 £24

£25 £26 £27 £28 £29 £30 £3

1 E32

Notes:

**


= le


Rows with all


Table 9.



at



et

2)

within

3 days.

Land Segment

E33 T1

T2

T3T5


T6

T7

T8

T9

T10 Ti

l T12 T13 T14

T15

T16 T17 T18 T19 T20 T21

122 T23 T24

2 7 813 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22



1 n n n n n n n n n n n




n 2 2 n n n n n n n n n


h n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n n n n n .

n n n n n


n n n n n n n n ,

n n n n





n n n n n n

n n n n n n



n n n n n n n n n 110 2

n n n n n n n 8 3 n n n

n n n n n n- n n n n n n

n n n 112 2 1 n n n n n

n n n n n n 214

1 n n n

Notes:

** =


» less than 0.5 percent.

Rows with all

values le

ss than 0.5 percent are not shown.

cr»

( tn

Table 9. (Continued) --


at an

oilspill starting

at


a certain la

nd segment (s

et

2)

within

3 days.

Land Segment

Hypothetical Spill

Location

T25

T26

127

T28

T29

T30

T31

F32

T33

T3*

T35

F36

T37

T38

T39

T40

T41

T42

T43

T<U US U6 T4

7 U8 U9

1 2 A 7 811 27

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n nU

n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n

n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n 3 2 n n

n n 8 n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n. n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n3

0

1 3 n n n n 1

n n n n n n n

Notes:

**

» Greater th

an 99

.5 percent; n

* le

ss th

an 0.5

percent.

Rows wi

th all

values le

ss th

an 0.

5 percent ar

e not

show

n.

Table 9. (Continued) --

Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



et

2)

within

3 day s .

Land Segment


T50

rsi

rsa

TSS

TS*

TSS

T56

T57

TSS

Notes:

**


= le


Rows with all


Table 10

. --



at


a certain land seqment (s

et 2)

within 13

days.

Land Segment

PI

P2

P3

PA

P5

P6Hypothetical Spill Location

P7

P8

P9

P10 P1

1 P12

P13 PU P15 P16 P17 P13 E1

E2

E3

E4

E5

E6

E7

2 3 410 11 24 15

Notes: ** »


= less than fl.5 percent.

Rows with all

values less tKan 0.5 percent are not shown.

n n n n n n n

n n n n n 3 1

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n .

n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n 1 n n n n

n n n n n n n

4 n n n n n n

7 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n

6 n n n n n n

1 12

0 n n n n

n n 1 n n n n

n n n n n n n

n n n 1 3 n n

n n n n n n n

CT*

Co

Table 10.

(Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th


at a



wi th

i n 10 days.

Land Segment


13 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Notes: **

* Greater than 99.5 percent; n


Rows with all


Eti 3 4 1 n n n n n n

E9

n n n n n n n n n

£10 n 1 n 1 n n n n n

£11 n n n n n n n n n


£13 n n n 1 2 1 1 n n

EU n n n 1 5 6 1 n n




£18

n n n n n n n n n


£20

n n n n n 1 n 1 n

£21 n n n n n 1 3 6 1

£22 n n n n n n n 1 n

£23 n n n n n n n 2 1

£2* n n n n n n n n n

£25

n n n n n . n n n n

£26 n n n n n n 1 2 1


£28 n n n n n n n 1 n

£29 n n n n n n n

>n n

£30 n n n n 1 1 n n n

£31 n n n 1 J 5 1 n n

£3

n n n 1 n n n n n

CO

Table 10.

(Continued) --


at an

oilspill starting

at



2)

within 10

days.

Land Segment

E33

T1

T2

T3

T4


T6

T7

T3

T9

T10 T1

1 T12 T13 TU T15 T16 T17 T18 T19 T29 T21

T22 T23 T2A

2 3 A 7 810 11 13 15 16 1 7

IS 19 20 21 22

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

6 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n


1 1 7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n A 3 n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n 1 A n n .

n n n n n n n

n n n n n n 3 n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n 1 1 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 1 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 2 3 1


n n n n n n n 'n n n n n n n n n





n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 1

n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 2157

n n n n n n n n n n 21A 10

. 2 n n

n n n n n n n n n n 2 2 1 n n n

n n n n n n n 6175 5 2 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 1 822A n n n

Notes:

* *

= Greater than 99.5 percent/ n

= le


Rows with all

values less than 0.5 percent are no

t shown.

Table 10

. (Continued) Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) that an

oilspill starting

at



et 2)

within 10 days..

Land Segment


T25 T26 127 T28

T29 T30 T3

1 M2 T33 T3A

T35 T36

T37 T38 T39 TAO TA

1 TA2 TA3 TAA

TA5 TA6 TA7 TA8 TA9

1 2 3 A 5 6 7 811 17

27

n n n n n n n n n 1 n





n n n n n n n n25 n n



n n n n n n n n'

n n n






n n n 1 n n n n n n n

n n n 3 1 1 7 5 n n n

n 1 218

n n n n n n n





n n n n n n n .

n n n n

1 1 n n n n n n n n3

8

21

6 n n n n n n n n A


Notes:

'**

* Greater than 99.5 percent;

n. = less than 0.5 percent.

Rows with all values less than 0.5 percent are not shown.

Table 10.

(Confinued) --

Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an

oilspill starting

at



et

2)

w i th

in

10 days.

'

Land Segment


T50 T5

1 T52 T53 T54 T55

T56 T57 T58

nnnnnnn11

Notes:

**

= Greater than 99.5 percent/

n a

less

than 0.5 percent.

Rows with all


ro

Table 11.

-- Probabilities (expressed as


at



et 2)

within 30 days.

Land Segment

H1

P2

P3

PA

P5

PAHypothetical Spill Location

P7

P8

P9

P10 P1 1

P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 E1

E2

E3

E4

E5

E6

E7

1 2 3 4 5 8 910 11 13 22 23 24 25 27

n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 2 1 6 d n







n' n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n


n n n 1 n n n 1 1 n n n n n n

n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n


n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n


n 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

113 n n n n n n n n n n n n 1




n 3 423

1 n n n n n n n n n n

n 1 1 2 .n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n 1 1 712n n n n n n

n n n n n n n 1 5 2 n n n n n

GO

Notes:

** =



Rows with all

values less than 0.5 percent are not

shown.

Table 11

. (Continued) Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at a



et 2)

within 30 days.

Land Segment


£9

E10 £1

1 £12 £13 £14 £15 £16 £17

£18 £19 £20 £21

£22

£2.3

£24 £25 £26 £27 £23 £29 £30 £3

1£32

1 1

13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Notes:

** =

Greater th

an 99

.5 percent;

n =

less th

an 0.5

percent

Rows

wi

th al

l values less th

an 0.5

percent are

not

show

n.

2 9 8 3 2 n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

1 3 4 2 3 1 1 n n n

n 2 3 2 3 2 1 n n n

n 2 3 1 2 1 1 n n n

n 1 1 1 3 5 5 2 n n

n n 1 1 41

0 102 1 n

1 2 2 1 2 2 1 n n n

n 3 2 1 1 1 n n n n

n 1 1 1 2 1 1 n n n

n 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 n

n 1 1 n 1 1 1 n 1 n

n 1 1 n 1 2 T 2 4 1

n n n n 1 2 4 61

0 3

n 1 1 n 1 2 1 2 4 2

n n n n 1 2 2 2 5 3

n n 1 n 1 n 1 1 1 5

n 1 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 2

n n n n 1 1 2 2 5 3

n 1 1 n 1 2 1 n n n

n 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1

n 1 2 1 3 2 1 n n n

n 1 1 1 3 5 4 1 n n

n 1 1 1 5 8 9 3 1 n

n 2 2 1 3 3 1 n n n

Table 11.


percent chance) th


at


ll contact a

certain land segment (s

et 2)

within 30

days.

Land Segment

en

£33 T1

f2

T3

TA

T5Hypothetical Sp

ill

Location

T6

T7

T8

T9

T10 Til T12 T13 MA T15 T16 T17 T18 T19 T20 T21 T22 T23 T2A

2 3 A 5 6 7 8 910

1 3 5 6 7 319 20

21 22 23 2A

n n n n n n n n n 1 3 2 1 1 1 n n n n n n

7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

10 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


3 A10n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n 5 1 1 6 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n 1 6 1 S n n n n n n n n n n n

n '

n- n n n n n n 2

10 n n n n n n n n n n ,n

n n n n n n n n n 3 5 A 1 n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 1 3 5 2 A A 2 n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 3 A A 5 ? n n

n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 n 1 2 1 n n n n n





n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 n 1 2 2 1 1 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 123 3

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 2 2 1 A A n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 2 3 19 11 n n

n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 517 13A 1 n n n

n n n n n n. n n n 1 2 2 5 6 A 1 n n n n

n n n n n n n n 2 9217 7 3 1 n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 1 3 312 25 6 1 n n n n

Notes: ** = Greater than 99.5 percent; n

= less than 0.

5 percent.

Rows wi

th all

values le

ss th

an 0.

5 percent are

not

shown.

Table 11

. (Continued) Probabilities (expressed, as

percent chance) th

at an

oilspill starting

at



2)

within 30 days.

Land Segment

en


T<?5 T26 T27 T28 T29 ISO T3

1 T32 T3$ T3A

T35 T36 T37 T38 T39 UO TA1

TA2 U3 T4

4 TA5

TA6 TA7 TA8 TA9

1 2 3 A 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 1

13 15 16 17 18 19 27

n n n n n n n n n n 1 A 3 2 2 2 n n

n r

n r

n i

1 r

n i

n r

n i

n i

n i

n r

1 i

n n n n n n n ii

n i

ni

ni

nT

ni

ni

ni

ni

ni

ni

n n n n n n ni

n

n n n n n n n n n 1 2 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 232

1 n n n n n n



h n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n 1 n n .

n n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n




n n n n n n n


n n 1 A n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n 1 112A 3 11 6 n n n n n n n n n n

n A 523n n n n n n n n n n n n n n





n n n n n n n n n n 0 n n n n n n n

2 A n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n39

3 23n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 5

n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

Notes:

**

* Greater than 99.5 pe

rcen

t*'

n =

less than 0.5 percent.

Rows with all

values less than 0.5 percent are not

shown.

Table 11.

(Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at


ll contact


et

2)

within 30 days.

Land Segment

21 22 23 24 25

Hy

po

theti

cal

Sp

ill

Locati

on

T50

T

51

TS2

T

S3

T5A

T

55

T56

T

57

T58

nnnnnnnl

1,

nn

nn

nn

n2

10

nnnnnnn24

n n

n n

n n

n 3

5 nnnnnnnl

n

Notes: ** =

Greater th

an 99.5 percent; n

= less than 0.5

percent.

Rows

wi

th all

values less th

an 0.5

percent are no

t sh

own.

Table 12.


percent chance) of

on

e or

more spills* and the

expected number of

spills (m

ean)

occurring and contacting targets over th

e expected production Iffe of th

e lease

area

* proposed sale 78

(northern le

ases

* P10-P17* mean resource estimate) vs

. proposed sa

le 78 (northern leases* P10-P17, hi

gh

resource estimate) vs

. crude oi

l imports.

Probabilities ar

e fo

r spills 1*000 barrels an

d greater.

(00

Target

Land

Brown Pelican

Marine Turtle


Wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)


Gray's Ree f

Cape Remain Wild.

Mon i

tor

Tourist Beaches* NC

Tourist Beaches* SC

Tourist Beaches* 6A

Tourist Beaches* FL

Coastal Inlets* NC

Coastal Inlets* SC

Coastal Inlets* 6A

Coastal Inlets* FL

Historic Sites

Prehi storic Sites

Coastal Uaterbirds

Manatee Habitat


Royal Red Shrimp

CaIi co

Sea I lop

Pereg. Falc. Migr.

Uald Eagle Nesting

Within 3

days

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil.

mean

high

only

'Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

_ within 10

da

ys

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30

da

ys -

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob

Mean

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 1 1 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 n 1 n 136 42 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

' 0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

U.O

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.6

0.0

0.0

2 n n 1 n 1 n n n n 1 1 n n n 1 n n n 1 n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

4 n 1 2 1 2 1 n n n 5 2 n n n 2 n n n 4 n 1 n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

9 5 4 6 4 3 2 n 1 n 1 1 n 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 n 3 n 340

461 n

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.5

0.6

0.0

0.0

3 n 1 1 1 1 1 n n n 1 1 n n n 1 n n n 2 n'

1 n n n "n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

0.0

8 1 3.

4 2 4 2 n n n 6 4 n n n 3 n n n 7 n 3 n n n 1 1 n

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

36 17 23 IS 19 14 102 5 1 2 4 2 4 12 4 5

10 10 14 413

116 40 524 1

0.4

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.7

0.0

0.0

Note:

n =

less th

an 0.5 percent/ **

=

greater th

an 99.5 pe

rcen

t,

Table 13.

-- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of

on

e or

more spills* and

the

expected number of

spills (mean)


e expected production li

fe of

the

lease ar

ea/

proposed sale 78

(southern leases/ P1-P9/ mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed sale 78

(southern leases/ P1-P9/ high resource

estimate) vs.

crude oi

l and

refined products.

Probabilities are

for

spills 1/000 barrels and greater.

10

Target

Land

Broun Peli can

Mar in

e Tur11e

Onslou Bay

Live Bo

t.wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrd/ Sapelo/ Wo

lfGray's Re

efCape Remain Wild.

Moni

tor

Touri st

Tourist

Tourist

Tour

i st

Coastal

Coast al

Coastal

Coas

t al

Historic

Beaches/

Bea ches/

Be a c lie

s/

Beaches/

Inlets/

Inlets/

Inlets/

Inlets/

Sites

NC

SC

GA

FLNC SC

GA FL

Prehi stori c Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Manatee Hab

i t at

Salt Harsh/ Wetlands

Royal Red

Shrimp

Calico Scallop

Pereg. Falc. Higr.

Bald Eagle Nesting

Within 3

days -----

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

, mean

high

refined'

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- Within 10

da

ys -

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

--

Ui't

hin

30 days -

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n n n n n n n « n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 6' 6 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

28 10 13 IS 25 13 12 1 5 n n 2 2 3 11 4 710 12 15 1 U n 16 84 91 3. n

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1

O.U

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

1.8

2.4

0.0

0.0

t n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 2 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 2 1 2 1 1 n n ' n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 n 1 n 1 7 7 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0'

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

58 28 31 20 41 27 223 9 1 1 6 4 6

22 9

11 19 19 30 327 2 32 88 938 .n

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.4

2.1

2.7

0.1

0.0

3 2 2 2 1 1 1 n 1 n n n n 1 n n 1 1 n 1 n 2. n 2 2 3 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

138 9 9 7 5 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 3 6 2 6 1 7 n 9 7

142 n

0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

91 56 71 32 70 55 458 20 3 5

149

19 51 16 22 40 46 55 16 50 4 59 88 95 18 2

2.4

0.8

1.3

0.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.7

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.8

0.2

0.7

0.0

0.9

2.1

3.0

0.2

0.0

Note: n

less

th

an 0.

5 percent' **

*

greater than 99.5 pe

rcen

t,

Table 14.


percent chance) of

on

e or

more spills/ and the

expected number of

spills (m

ean)

, occurring and contacting targets over th


fe of

the

lease area/

proposed sale 78

and

existing tracts (northern leases/ P10-P17/ E1-E5/ mean.resource estimate) vs.

proposed sale 78 and existing

tracts (northern leases/ P10-P17/ E1-E5/ high resource estimate) vs.

crude oi

l Imports.

Probabilities ar

e fo

r spills 1/000 barrels and greater.

00 o

Target

Land

Broun Pelican

Mar in

e Tu

rt le

Onslow Bay

Live Bo

t.

UiIdlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Btkbrd/ Sapelo/ Wo

lf

Gray's Ree

f Cape Remain Wild.

Honi

tor

Tourist Beaches/ NC

Tourist Ueaches/ SC

Tourist Beaches/ 6A

Tourist Beaches/ FL

Coastal Inlets/ NC

Coastal Inlets/ SC

Coastal Inlets/ 6A

Coastal Inlets/ FL

Historic Sites

Prehistoric S

i te

s Coastal Uaterbirds

Manatee Habitat

Salt

Marsh/ Wetlands

Royal Re

d Shrimp

Calico Seal lop

Pereg. Fa

lc .

Migr.

Oald Eagle Nesting

Within 3

days -

cumu

l.

cumul.

crude

,north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 10

da

ys

cumul.

cumul.

'crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30 days

cumu

l.

cumul.

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

p.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 1 1 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 n 1 n 136 42 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.6

0.0

0.0

3 n 1 1 1 1 1 n n n 2 1 n n n 1 n n n 2 n 1 n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

4 n 2 3 1 2 1 n n n 5 2 n n n 2 n n n 5 n 1 n n n 1 1 n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

9 5 4 6 4 3 2 n 1 n 1 1 n 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 n 3 n 340 461 n

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.5

0.6

0.0

0.0

5 n 1 1 1 2 1 n n n 2 2 n n n 2 n n n 3 n 1 n n n 1 1 n

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

' 0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

9 1 4> 5 2 5 2 n n n 7 4 n n n 4 n n n 8 n 3 n 1 n 2 2 n

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

36 17 23 15 19 14 10 2 5 1 2 4 2 4124 5

10 10 144

131

16 40 52 4 1

0.4

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.7

0.0

0.0

Note: n

= less th

an 0.

5 percent; ** =

greater th

an 99.5 percent,

Table IS

. -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills* and the expected number of

spills (mean)



fe,

of the lease area/ proposed sale 78 and

existing tracts (southern leases/ P1-P9/ E6-E33/ mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed saie 78 and existing

tracts (southern leases/ P1-P9/ E6-E33/ high resource estimate) vs.

crude oil and refined products.

Probabilities are

for spills 1/000 barrels and greater.

Target

Land

Brown Pelican

Mar i

ne Tur11e


Wildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (New-Apr)


Grax's Reef

Cape Romain Wild.

Moni tor

Tourist Beaches/ NC

Tourist Beaches/ SC

Tourist Beaches/ 6A

Tourist Beaches/ FL

Coastal Inlets/ NC

Coastal Inlets/ SC

Coastal Inlets/ 6A

Coastal Inlets/ FL

Historic Sites

Preh istoric Sites

Coastal Uaterbirds

Manatee Habitat


Royal Red Shrimp

Calico Seal lop

Pereg. Falc. Migr.

Bald Eagle Nesting

---- within 3

days

curaul.

cumul.

crude

<south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

. Within 10 days -

cumul.

cumul.

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30 days

cumul.

cumul.

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

n n n n n n n n n n n n. n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 2 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

28 10 13 15 25 13 121 5 n n 2 2 3 11 4 7

10 12 15 1 14 n 16 84 913 n

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

1.8

2.4

0.0

0.0

2 2 1 1 1 1 n n 1 n n n n 1 n n n 1 n 1 n 1 n 2 1 3 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3 3 2 2 2 1 1 n 1 n n n n 1 1 n n 2 n 1 n 2 n 2 7 9 1 n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

58 28 31 20 41 27 223 9 1 1 6 4 6

229 11 19 19 303

272

32 88 938 n

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.4

2.1

2.7

0.1

0.0

9 7 6 3 5 3 2 1 3 n 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 5 1 3 1 5 n 7 2 7 2 n

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

18 13 M 10 107 4 2 5 1 2 2 2 5 3 2 5 9 2 8 1

11 n 147

183 n

0,2

0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

91 56 71 32 70 55 458

203 5

149

19 51 16 22 40 46 55 16 SO 4 59 88 95 18 2

2.4

0.8

1.3

0.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.7

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.8

0.2

0.7

0.0

0.9

2.1

3.0

0.2

0.0

Note: n

= less than 0.5 percent; **

*

greater than 99.5 percent

Table 16

. Probabilities (expressed as percent ch

ance

) of.one ormore spills* and th

e expected number of

spills (mean)

occurring and

contacting la

nd segments

(set

1) over the

expected production li

fe of

the

lease area/

proposed

sale 78

(northern leases* R10-P17* mean resource estimate) vs

. proposed sa

le 78

(northern leases* P1U-P17*

high resource estimate) vs

. crude oi

l imports.

Probabilities are for

spills 1*000 barrels and greater.

00 ro

Land

Segment

Within 3

days -

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 10

da

ys

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

--

Within 30 da

ys

proposed

proposed

crude

nor th

north

ol I

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

1 I 3 A 5 6 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 26

Note: n

= le

ss than O.

S percent;

** =

greater than 99

.5 percent. Segments with less than 0.5 percent probability

of on

e or more contacts within 30

days ar

e no

t shown.

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n .n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 1 n n n n n n n 1 1 n 1 1 n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

'

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 3 1 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 3 1 n 2 3 3 3 6 7 6 2 1 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0 o.u

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

O.Q

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Table 17

. --


percent ch

ance

) of

on

e ormore spills* and the

expected number of

spills (m

ean)

occurring an

d contacting la

nd segments

(set 1)

over th

e expected production life of

the

lease area* proposed

sale

78

(southern leases* P1-P9* mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed sa

le 78

(southern leases* P1-P9*

high resource estimate) vs.

crude oi

l and

refined products.

Probabilities are

for

spills 1*000 barrels and

great er.

00

CO

Land

Segment

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13

U 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 26

Note: n of

- - Within 3

days

proposed

proposed

crude '

,

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Hean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- Within 10

da

ys

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30

days -

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob

Mean

Prob Mean

Prob

Mean


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0:0

0.0

0.0

1 2 n n n n n n 1 n n 2 n n 5 1 n 4 7 n n n n 6

0.0

0.0

0.0

O.Q

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

.0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n n n n n h n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

5 11 2 n n n n n 2 n n 4 1 2 7 5 3 9 16 2 1 2 1

10

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n >

n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n,

n n n n n n n 1 n n 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

7 17 5 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 5 3 5

12

14

11

17

35

28

22 6 2

11

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

= less th

an 0.

5 percent'

** *

greater than 99.5 percent. Segments with

one

or more contacts within 30 days ar

e not

shown.

less than 0.5

percent probability

Table 18

. ' Probabilities (expressed as

percent ch

ance

) of

one

or more spills* and th

e expected number of spills (m

ean)

occurring and

contacting land segments

(set

1)

over th


fe of

the

lease area/ proposed

sale 78

and existing tracts (northern leases/ P10-P17/ E1-E5/ mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed sa

le 78

and existing tracts (northern leases/ P10-P17/ E1-E5/ high resource estimate) vs.

crude oi

l imports.

Probabilities ar

e fo

r spills 1/000 barrels an

d greater.

CO

Land

Segment

1 2 3 A 5 612 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 26

Within 3

days -

cumul.

cumul.

crude

>north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- Within 10 da

ys

cumul.

cumu

l.

i north

north

< mean

high

, <

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

I

Within 30 days

cumul.

crude

north

oil

high

only

in

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 2 1 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 1 n n n n n n n 1 1 n 1 1 n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 2 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 3 1- 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 3 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 6 7 6 2 1 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Note: n

= le

ss than O.

S percent;

** =

greater than 99.S percent. Segments with le

ss than 0.5 percent probability

of one

or more contacts within 30 days ar

e not

shown.

Tabl

e 19

. Probabilities (e

xpre

ssed

as percent

chance)

of on

e ormore sp

ills

* an

d the

expe

cted

number of

spills (m

ean)

occurring an

d contacting land se

gmen

ts

(set 1)

ov

er the


fe of the

lease

area*

proposed

sale 78 and

existing tr

acts

(s

outh

ern

leases*

P1-P

9* E6-E33*

mean

resource estimate)

vs.

proposed sale 78

and

exis

ting

tr

acts

(s

outh

ern

leas

es*

P1-P9* E6-E33*

high resource estimate)

vs.

crud

e oil

and

refi

ned

products.

Probabilities are

for

spil

ls 1*000

barrels an

d greater.

Land

Se

gmen

t

- Within 3

days

cumul.

cumu

l.

south

sout

h me

an

high

Pr

ob Mean

Prob

Mean

With

in 10 days

cumu

l.

crud

e so

uth

and

high

refined

in

Prob

Me

an

Prob

Mean

Within 30

da

ys

cumul.

cumu

l.

crud

e so

uth

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Me

an

Prob Me

an

Prob Me

an

00 en

1 2 3 A 5 6 7 8 911 12 13 14 15 16 17

Id 19 20 21 22 23 24 26


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n n . n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 2 n n n n n n 1 n n 2 n n 5 1 n * 7 n n n n 6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

n n n n. n n n n n n n n n n n n n n .

n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n'

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5 11 2 n n n n n 2 n n 4 1 2 7 5 3 9 16 2 1 2 1 10

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 2 2 1 1 n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n n 1 n n n n n 1 1 n 1 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 n n n

a.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

u.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

717 5 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 5 3 512 1A 11 17 35 28 226 2 11

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

Note

: n

= less than 0.5

perc

ent;

** *

greater

than

99.5 percent. Se

gmen

ts wi

th less

th

an 0.5

perc

ent

probability

of on

e or

more co

ntac

ts wi

thin

30 da

ys are

not

show

n.

Table 20. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills/ and the expected number of

spills (mean)

occurring and contacting land segments

(set 2) over the

expected production life of the lease area/ proposed

sale 78

(northern leases/ P10-P17/ mean resource estimate) vs

. proposed sale 78

(northern leases/ P10-P17/


crude oil

imports.

Probabilities are fo

r spills 1/000 barrels and greater.

oo

en

Land

Segment

_ within 3

days --

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil

>mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

_ within 10 days

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30 days -

^-

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

2 3 410 11 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 27

Note: n

= le

ss than 0.5 percent; **

=

greater than 99.5 percent. Segments with less than 0.5 percent probability

of one or more contacts within 30 days are

not

shown.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 n n n n n 1 n n n n n 1 1 n 1 n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

4 1 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

4 n 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 310 4 5 1 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Table 21.

--

Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of


(set

.» I _ 10

* -

- -

«

one ormore spills* and the expected number of

spills (mean)

----.

,_..

_ ..

»,.*

« ..

,

%»«i.

2) over th

e expected production life of the lease area* proposed

sale 78

(southern leases* P1-P9* mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed sale 78

(southern leases* P1-P9/


crude oil

and refined products.


spills 1sOOO barrels and

greater.

Land

Segment

1 2 A 5 7 8 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 18 19 20. 21 22 23 24 25 27

Note: n of

- Within 3

days

proposed

proposed

crude

, south

south

and

' mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 10 days

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

__

within 30 days

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean


0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

0.0

1 3 n n 1 1 n n 2 1 5 1 n n n 1 V 1 n n n 6

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.1

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.1

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.1


0.0

0

.0

0.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0 o.o

0.0

0.0

2 15

n n 1 1 n n 5 3 7 2 3 2 2 3 15

8 n 3 1 1

0

0.0

0

.2

0.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

0

.1

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.2

0.1

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.1

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

2

0.0

r

0.0

1

0.0

n

0.0

nn

0.0

1

0.0

1.

0

.0

n 0

,0

n 0

.0

n O

.Q

n 0

.0

n 0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.0

i 0

.0

0.0

0

.0 o.o

3 25

3 1 2 2 1 1 9 7 12

6 7 8 8 6 2

3

42

U

18

2 11

0.0

0

.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0

.0

0.0

0

.1

0.1

0

.1

0.1

0

.1

0.1

0.1

0

.1

0.3

0

.5

0.2

0

.2

0.0

0.1

: less

than 0.5 percent; **

=

greater than 99.5 percent. Segments with less than

0,

one or more contacts within 30 days are not shown.

5 percent probability

Table 22

. -- Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance)

of on

e ormore spills/ and the

expected number of

spills (m

ean)

occurring and

contacting la

nd segments

(set

2) over th


the

lease

area* proposed

sale 78 and

existing tracts (northern leases* P10-P17/ E1-C5/ mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed sa

le 78

and existing tracts (northern leases/ P10-P17/ E1-E5/ high resource estimate) vs

. crude oi

l imports.

Probabilities ar

e fo


d greater.

c»

oo

Land

Segment

Within 3

days

cumul.

cumul.

crude

; north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 10

da

ys

cumul*

cumul.

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- Within 30

days - -

cumu

l.

cumul*

crude

nor th

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

2 3 A10

11

'

13 15 16 17 18 19

20

21 22 21 24 25 27

Note: n

= less

than 0.5

percent**

** *

greater than 99

.5 percent. Segments with less than 0.5 percent probability

of one

or more contacts within 30

days ar

e no

t shown.

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 n n n n n 1.

n n n n n 1 1 n 1 n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5 1 2 n n n n n n n n n- n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

* 0

.00.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

A n 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 310

A 5 1 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Table 25

. Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) of

one

prmore spills* and th


spills (m

ean)

occurring and

contacting la

nd segments

(set 2) over the

expected production life of

th

e lease

area*

proposed

sale 78

an

d existing tracts (southern leases/ P1-P9* E6-E33* mean resource estimate) vs

. proposed sa

le 78

and existing tracts (southern leases/ P1-P9* E6-E33* high resource estimate) vs.

crude oil

and

refined

products Probabilities are

for


CO

10

Land

Segment

- Within 3

days

cumul.

cumul.

crude

,'south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- - Within 10 days

cumul.

cumu

l.

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30 days -

cumu

l.

cumul.

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

1 2 A 5 7 8 910 11 13 15 16 17

1819 20

21 22 23

24

.25

27

Note: n

= less than 0.5 percent; ** *


of one or more contacts within 30 days are not shown.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 3 n n 1 1 n n 2 1 5 1 n n n 1 9 1 n n n 6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

215

n n 1 1 n n 5 3 7 2 3 2 2 315

8 n 3 11

0

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

n 1 n n n n n n 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 n n 1 n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

' 0.0

0.0

n 1 1,

n n n n n 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 2 n 1 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

32

5 3 1 2 2 1 1 9 712

6 7 8 8 62

342 U 18

211

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.1

Appendix A

90

fr {5

fe fc

fc je

Figure A

-l.--Map s

howi

ng t

he l

ocat

ion

of B

rown

Pelican r

ookeries,

South

Atla

ntic

DCS

Lease

Sale

78:

cross

hatc

hing

ind

icat

es a

real

ex

tent

.

10

ro

-mfBrrrr.

Figu

re A

-2.-

-Map

showing th

e location o

f marine t

urtl

e Ti

es ting

halb

itat

, South

Atlantic

OCS

Leas

e Sale 78:

cros

s ha

tchi

ng i

ndic

ates

are

al extent.

9S*

s*' JJ'

10

CO

3i*

Itw*

Figu

re A-3

. Ma

p sh

owng

the

loc

atio

n of

Onslow

Bay

live

bottom

area,

Sout

h At

lant

ic

OCS

Lease

Sale

78:

cross

hatc

hing

ind

icat

es a

real

ex

tent

.

VO

Fig

ure

A-4

.--*

1

fcE

S

|e ^

Map

sh

owin

g th

e l

oca

tion

of

Fed

eral

an

d S

tate

wildlife

co

nse

rva

tion

a

rea

s,OC

S Le

ase

Sal

e 78

: cr

oss

hatc

hin

g

ind

ica

tes

are

al

ext

ent.

on

Fig

ure

A-5

.-~M

ap

show

ing

the lo

ca

tio

n o

f F

eder

al

and

Sta

te p

ark

s,

Sou

th A

tlantic

DCS

Leas

e S

ale

78:

cros

s h

atc

hin

g

ind

ica

tes

are

al

ext

en

t.

IO a*

AS'

Figure A

-6.--Map s

howi

ng t

he l

ocat

ion

of B

lack

bear

d Is

land

, Sa

pelo

Is

land

, an

d Wolf

Island,

South

Atla

ntic

DCS

Leas

e Sa

le 78

: cr

oss

hatc

hing

ind

icat

es

area

l ex

tent

.

IO

Fig

ure

A

-7.-

-Map

show

ing

the

lo

ca

tio

n of

Gra

y's

Reef,

Sou

th A

tla

ntic

DCS

Leas

e S

ale

78:

cro

ss

ha

tch

ing

in

dic

ate

s

are

al

exte

nt.

Fig

ure

A-8

.--M

ap

show

ing

the

loca

tion

of

Cap

e R

omai

n N

atio

nal

Wild

erne

ss

are

a,

Sou

th

Atlantic

DCS

Leas

e S

ale

78:

cros

s hatc

hin

g

ind

ica

tes

are

al

ext

ent.

10

10

Figure A

-9.--Map s

howing t

he l

ocat

ion

of M

onitor Mar

ine

sanc

tuar

y, South

Atla

ntic

OC

S Lease

Sale

78

: cr

oss

hatc

hing

indicates

areal

exte

nt.

o

o

K je

Js IT

je

Fig

ure

A-1

0.--

Map

sh

owin

g th

e l

ocation o

f to

urist

beac

hes

- N

orth

Caro

lina,

Sou

th

Atlantic

OCS

Leas

e S

ale

78:

cros

s h

atc

hin

g

ind

ica

tes

area

! e

xte

nt.

a i*

an'

3*'

JJ*

Figu

re A

-ll.

--Ma

p sh

owin

g th

e lo

cati

on o

f to

uris

t beaches

- South

Carolina,

Sout

h At

lant

ic O

CS L

ease S

ale

78:

cros

s ha

tchi

ng in

dica

tes

area

! extent.

fc IB

fc

Fig

ure

A-1

2. M

ap

show

ing

the

loca

tio

n of

tou

rist

beac

hes

- G

eorg

ia,

Sou

th A

tlantic

DCS

Leas

e S

ale

78:

cros

s hatc

hin

g

ind

ica

tes

are

al

ext

ent.

o CO

* j*

>

fc |i

JeF

igur

e A

-13.

--M

ap

show

ing

the

location o

f to

urist

beac

hes

- F

lorid

a,

Sou

th A

tlantic

DCS

Leas

e S

ale

78:

cros

s h

atc

hin

g

Ind

ica

tes

are

al

ext

en

t.

o

-p*

* w

Figure A-14. Map s

howi

ng t

he l

ocat

ion

of c

oastal inlets -

North

Caro

lina

, So

uth

Atla

ntic

DCS L

ease S

ale

78:

cross

hatc

hing

ind

icat

es a

real

ex

tent

.

o

en

Figure A-15. Map s

howi

ng t

he l

ocat

ion

of c

oastal inlets

-

South

Caro

lina

, So

uth

Atla

ntic

DCS

Lea

se S

ale

78:

cross

hatc

hing

indicates

areal

extent

o

en

Figure A

-16.

--Ma

p sh

owin

g the

loca

tion

of

coastal

inlets - Ge

orgi

a, S

outh

Atl

anti

c DCS

Lease

Sale

78:

cros

s ha

tchi

ng i

ndic

ates

are

a! ex

tent

.

IT

jl fe

ieF

igur

e A

-17.

--M

ap

show

ing

the lo

cation o

f co

ast

al

inle

ts

- F

lorida,

Sou

th A

tla

ntic

DCS

Leas

e S

ale

78:

cro

ss

hatc

hin

g

indic

ate

s are

al

ext

ent.

o 00

II

*

W

£

fr

Figure A-18. Map s

howi

ng t

he l

ocat

ion

of h

isto

ric

sites, S

outh

Atl

anti

c OCS

Lease

Sale

78:

cross

hatc

hing

ind

icat

es a

rea! ex

tent

.

Figure A-19. Map s

howi

ng t

he l

ocat

ion

of p

rehistoric s

ites,

South

Atla

ntic

OCS L

ease

Sa

le 7

8:

cross

hatc

hing

Ind

icat

es a

rea! extent.

A>

1*W

5fc*

IsFi

gure

A-2

0.--

Map

sho

win

g th

e lo

cati

on o

f co

asta

l w

ater

bird

col

onie

s,

Sout

h A

tlan

tic

DCS

Lea

se S

ale

78;

cros

s ha

tchi

ng i

ndic

ates

ar

eal

exte

nt.

Fig

ure

A-2

1. M

ap

show

ing

the lo

ca

tio

n of

man

atee

critica

l h

ab

ita

t,

Sou

th A

tlantic

DCS

Leas

e S

ale

78:

cros

s hatc

hin

g in

dic

ate

s ar

ea!

ext

en

t.

«ra«»»»»"r"t»r»»*

Fig

ure

A-2

2. M

ap

show

ing

the lo

cation o

f sa

lt m

arsh

and

wetla

nds,

S

outh

Atlantic

DCS

Leas

e S

ale

78:

cros

s hatc

hin

g

ind

icate

s ar

ea!

ext

en

t.

Tigu

re A

-23.--Map

showing

the

loca

tion

of

Roya

l Red

shrimp,

South

Atla

ntic

OCS

Lease

Sale

78:

cross

hatc

hing

in

dica

tes

area

l extent.

Figu

re A

-24.

r--M

ap s

howing t

he l

ocat

ion

of C

alico

scal

lop,

South

Atla

ntic

OCS

Lease

Sale

78:

cross

hatc

hing

Ind

icat

es a

real

ex

tent

.

Figu

re A

-25.

--M

ap s

how

ing

the

loca

tion

of

Per

egri

ne F

alco

n m

igra

tory

sto

pove

rar

eas,

Sou

th A

tlan

tic

OCS

Leas

e Sa

le 7

8:

cros

s ha

tchi

ng i

ndic

ates

ar

eal

exte

nt.

Figure A

-26.--

Map

show

ing

the

loca

tion

of

Bald

Eagle n

esti

ng s

ites,

South

Atla

ntic

OCS Lease

Sale 7

8:

cross

hatching i

ndic

ates

are

al

extent.

Appendix B

117

Table H-1. --


on

e or


expected number of

sp

ills

(mean)

occurring an

d contacting targets over the


fe of

th

e lease area/ proposed sa

le 78

.(northern le

ases

/ P10-P17* mean resource estimate) vs

. proposed 8»le 78

(northern leases/ P10-P17/ high

resource estimate) vs

. crude oi

l imports.

Probabilities ar

e for

spills 10/000 barrels and

greater.

CO

Targe t

Land

Brown .Pelican

Mar i ne Tur tie

Onslow Day Live Bot.

WiIdlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrd* Sapelo/ Wolf

Gray's Ree

fCape Remain Wild.

Monitor

Tour i st

Tour i st

Tourist

Touri st

Coastal

Coast al

Coastal

Coastal

Historic

Beaches*

bea ches*

Beaches*

Beaches*

Inlets/

Inlets*

Inlets*

Inlets*

Sites

NC

SC

GA

FLNC SC

GAFL

Prehi st

or i

c Sites

Coastal Waterbirds

Manatee Habitat

Salt Ma

rsh*

Wetlands

Roya

l Re

d Shrimp

Calico Scallop

Per eg.

Falc

. Migr.

Bald Eagle

Nesting

- Within 3

days '-

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oi

l mean

high

only

: Prob Mean

Prob Hean

Prob Mean

Within 10 days

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30

days -

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oiI

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n n nn n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 n n 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n n23 28 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 n n 1 n 1 n n n n 1 1 n n n 1 n n n 1 n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5 3 2 3 3 2 1 n 1 n n 1 n 1 1 1 n 2 1 2 n 2 n 226 311 n

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.0

2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n

0.0

.0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

' 0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

4 n 1 1- 1 2 1 n n n 2 1 n n n 1 n n n 2 n 1 n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

24 11 149 12 9 6 1 3 1 2 2 1 3 7 2 3 6 6 9 2 8 1

10 27 363 n

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.0

Note;

n =

less

than 0.

5 percent; **

*

greater than 9V.5 percent,

Tabl

e 0-

2. --

Probabilities (expressed as percent ch*nc«> of

one

or more spills/ and the

expected number of

sp

ills

(m

ean)



ft of

th

e (ease area/ proposed sale 78

(southern le

ases

/ P1-P9/ Mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed salt 78

(southern leases/ P1-P9/ high

resource estimate) vs.

crude oi

l and refined products.

Probabilities ar

e fo


d greater.

Target

Land

Broun Pelican

Mar in

e TurtIe

Onslow Bay

Live Oo

t.Wi

Idlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)

Blkbrd/ Sapelo/ Wo

If

Gray's Re

efCape Remain Wild.

Moni

tor

Tour

i st

Touri st

Tourist

Tour

i s

t Coastal

Coa

s t a

I Coastal

Coastal

Hi storic

Beaches/

Oeaches/

Beaches/

Beaches/

Inlets/

Inlets/

Inlets/

Inlets/

Si tes

NC

SC

6A

FLNC SC GA FL

Prehi stori

c Sites

Coastal Uaterbirds

Manatee Habi tat

Sa

lt Marsh/ Wetlands

Royal

Red

Shrimp

Calico Seal lop

Pereg. Falc.

Migr.

Bald Eagle

Nesting

_ - Within 3

days -

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

Mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- - within 10 da

ys

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

Mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30 days

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

Mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

18 6 8 9 16 8 7 n 3 n n 1 1 2 7 2 4 6 7 9 n 9 n 10 67 76 2 n

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

1.1

1.4

0.0

0.0

n.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 1 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 2 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

40 18 20 12 27 17 142 6 1 1 4 2 4 146 7

12 12 19 217

121 72 80 5 n

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

1.3

1.6

0.1

0.0

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 n 1 1 1 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

6 3 3 5 *

3 2 1 n 1 n 2 1 2 n 3 n 4 3 5 1 n

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

76 39 53 20 52 38 305

122 3 8 6

12 35 10 14 26 31 38 10 342

41 72 84 111

1.4

0.5

0.8

0.2

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

O.S

0.1

0.4

0.0

O.S

1.3

1.8

0.1

0.0

Note:

n a

less

th

an 0.5

percent; ** =

greater than 99.5 percent.

Table

B-3. --


on

e or


expected number of sp

ills

(m

ean)

occurring and

contacting targets over the

expected production .life

of th

e lease area* proposed sa

le 78

and

existing tracts (northern leases* P10-P17* E1-E5* wean resource estimate) vs.

proposed sale 78 an

d existing

tracts (northern leases* P10-P17* E1-E5* high resource estimate) vs.

crude oil

imports.

Probabilities are

for

spil

ls 10*000 barrels an

d greater.

ro

O

Target

Land

Broun Pelican

Mar

i ne

Turt le

Onslow Ba

y Live Bo

t.Uildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Parks (Nov-Apr)


Gray's Re

efCape Romain WiId.

Moni

tor

Tourist Beaches* NC

Tour

ist

Beaches* SC

Tourist Beaches* 6A

Tourist Beaches* FL

Coastal Inlets* NC

Coastal Inlets* SC

Coastal Inlets* 6A

Coastal Inlets*

FLHi storic Sites

Preh

i stori

c Sites

Coastal Uaterbirds

Manatee Habitat

Salt

Harsh* Wetlands

Royal Red

Shrimp

Calico Scallop

Percy. Falc. Migr.

Bald Ea

gle

Nesting

- Within 3

days -----

cumu

l.

cumul.

crude

/north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- Within

cumul.

north

mean

Prob Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

O.U

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 n n 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n n23 28 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

O.U

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n imu

rt gh ob 2 n 1 1 1 1 1 n n n 2 1 n n n 1 n n n 2 n 1 n n n n n n

lu oa

y I. h Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

s --

--crud«

oil

on I

yProb 5 3 2 3 3 2 1 n 1 n -

n 1 n 1 1 1 n 2 1 2 n 2 n 226 311 n

f Mean

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.0

cumu

l nortf

mean

Prob 3 n 1 n 1 1 1 n n n 1 1 n n n 1 n n n 1 n' 1 n n n n n n

i Meai

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Within 30

days

cumul.

crude

north

oiI

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

24 11 14 9129 6 1 3 1 2 2 1 3 7 2 3 6 6 9 2 8 1

10 27 363 n

0 0 0 0 0 0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.0

No

te:

n =

les

s

tha

n

0.5

p

erc

en

t;

**

» g

reate

r th

an

99.5

p

erc

en

t

Table B-4. -- Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) of on

e or

more spills* and th

e expected number of sp

ills

(mean)

occurring an

d contacting targets over th


the

lease areas proposed sa

le 78

and

existing tracts (southern le

ases

* P1-P9* E6-E33* mean resource estimate) vs

. proposed sa

le 78

an

d existing

tracts (southern leases* P1-P9* E6-E33* high resource estimate) vs.

crude

oil*and refined products.

Probabilities ar

e for


Target

Land

Brown Pelican

Ha r i ne

Tu

r11

e Onslou Bay

Live Bot.

Uildlife Conser.

Parks (May-Oct)

Par ks (Nov-Apr)

Olkbrd* Sapelo* Wolf

Gray's Re

ef

Cape

Romain wild.

Mon

i t or

Tourist Beaches* NC

Tourist Beaches* SC

Tourist Beaches* 6A

To

uri

st Beaches* FL

Coastal Inlets* NC

Coastal Inlets* SC

Coastal Inlets* GA

Coastal Inlets* FL

His to

r ic

Sites

Prehistoric Sites

Coastal Uaterbirds

Manatee Habitat

Salt Ma

rsh*

Wetlands

Royal

Red

Shrimp

Cdlico Seal lop

Pereg. Fa

lc.

Migr.

BaId Eagle

Ne s t

i ng

- Within 3

days

cumul.

cumul.

crude

, south

south

and

mean

, high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 10

da

ys

cumul.

cumul.

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30

days

cumul.

cumu

l.

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

18 6 8 9 16 8 7 n 3 n n 1 1 2 7 2 4 6 7 9 n 9 n 10 67 76 2 n

0.2

0. 0. 0. 0.2

0. 0. 0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

1.1

1.4

0.0

0.0

1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 n 1 n 1 2 3 n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

40 18 20 12 27 17 142 6 1 1 4 2 4

14 6 712.

12 192

171

21 72 805 n

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

1.3

1 .6

0.1

0.0

4 2 2 2 2 1 1 n 1 n n n n 1 n n 1 2 n 1 n

'2 n 3 1 3 1 n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

7 s 5, 5 4 3 2 1 2 n 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 1 4 n 5 3 7 1 n

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

76 39 S3 20 52 38 305

122 3 8 6

12 35 10 14 26 31 38 10 342

41 72 84 111

1.4

0.5

0.8

0.2

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.4

0.0

0.5

1.3

1.8

0.1

0.0

Note: n

* le

ss th

an 0.5

percent; **

* greater than 99.5 percent,

Table B-5. Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) of

on

e ormore spills* and th


spills (mean)

occurring an

d contacting la

nd segments

(set 1)

over th


fe of the

tease area*

proposed sale 78

(northern leases* P10-P17* mean resource estimate) vs

. proposed sale 78

(northern

leas

es*

P10-P17* high resource estimate) vs

. crude oi

l imports.


spills 10*000

barrels and

greater.

PO

ro

Land

Segm

ent

Within 3

days ---

proposed

proposed

crude

,north

north

oil

''mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- Within 10 da

ys * -------

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30

days

proposed

proposed

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

1 2 512 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 26

Note:

n =

less than 0.

5 percent; **

=

greater than 99

.5 percent. Segments with less th

an 0.


of on

e or more contacts within 30

da

ys are

not

shown.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

O.U

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

O.U

U.O

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n n n n

n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n ri

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 A A 3 1 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

U.O

0,0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Table 8-6. --


percent chance) of

on

e ormore spills* and the

expected number of

spills (mean)

occurring and

contacting la

nd segments

(set 1)

over the


fe of the

lease area/

proposed sale 78

(southern leases/ P1-P9/ mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed sale 78

(southern leases/

P1-P9/ hi

gh resource estimate) vs

. crude oil

and

refined products Probabilities are fo

r spills 10/000

barrels an

d greater.

ro CO

Land

Segment

- Within 3

days »

proposed

proposed

crude

. south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- Within 10

days

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30

days

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

1 2 3 5 6 7 8 912 13

U 15 16 17 18 19 20

?1 22 23 24 26

Note:

n =

less than 0.

5 percent; **

=

greater than 99.5 percent. Segments with le

ss than 0.


of one

or more contacts within 3D da

ys are

not

shown.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 1 n n n n n 1 n 1 n n 3 1 n 3 4 n n n n 4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3 7 1 n n n n 1 n 2 n 1 4 3 2 51

0 1 1 1 1 6

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n '

n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n- n n n n n n n P n n 1 1 1 n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5 11 3 1 1

1 1 2 2 3 2 3 8 8 711 23

18 144 1 7

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

Tabl

e 8-

7. --


percent chance) of

one ormore spills/ and th

e expected number of spills (m

ean)

occurring an

d contacting la

nd segments

(set

1)

ov

er th


fe of

the

lease

area/

proposed sa

le 78

and

existing tracts (northern le

ases

/ P10-P17/ E1-E5/ mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed

sale

78 an

d existing tracts (northern leases/ P1Q-P17/ 61-65* high resource estimate) .v

s.

cr'ude oi

l imports.

Probabilities ar

e fo

r spills 10/000 barrels and

greater.

Land

Segment

- -- Within 3

days -

cumu

l.

cumul.

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 10

da

ys

cumul.

cumul.

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- --

within 30

days

cumu

l.

cumu

l.

crude

north

north

oil

mean

hi

gh

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

1 2 512 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 26

Note

: n

= less th

an 0.5

percent; **

= greater than 99


an 0.


of one

or more contacts within 30

da

ys are

not

show

n.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

O.t

)0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n.o

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0 b.o

n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 3 1 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Table 8*8. --


percent chance) of one ormore spills* and

the

expected number of spills (m

ean)

occurring an

d contacting la

nd segments

(set 1) over th


fe of

the

tease area*

proposed sale 78

and existing tracts (southern leases* P1-P9* E6-E33* mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed

sale 78

an

d existing tracts (southern leases* P1-P9* E6-E33* high resource estimate) vs

. crude oil

and

refined products.

Probabilities ar

e for

spills 10*000 barrels and

greater.

ro

en

Land

Segment

1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 12 13

U 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 26

- Within 3

days ---

cumu

l.

cumul.

crude

<south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob fl

ean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- - within

cumu

l.south

mean

Prob Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n imu

>ut

iu aay

I. h

s -

c ru

deand

gh

refined

ob


Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Prob 3 7 1 n n n n 1 n 2 n 1 4 3 2 5

101 1 1 1 6

Mean

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

cumu

lsouth

mean

Prob

n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 n n n n n n .

n

Meat

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Within 30

days -

cumul.

crude

south

and

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5 11 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 8 8 711 23 18 U4 1 7

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

Note

: n

= less

than 0.

5 percent; **

*


ss than 0.5

percent probability

of one

or more contacts within 30 da

ys are

not

shown.

Table 8-9. --

Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one ormore spills* and the

expected number of

spills (mean)


(set

2)

over the expected production life of the lease area/

proposed sale 78

(northern leases/ P10-P17/ mean resource estimate) vs

. proposed sale 78

(northern

leases/ P1Q-P17/ high resource estimate) vs.

crude oil imports.

Probabilities

*r<?

for

soills 10/000

barrels and greater.

Land

Segment

___ within 3

days - -

proposed

proposed

crude

nor th

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

--- Within 10 days -- -

proposed

proposed

crude

north

nor th

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

------- Within 30

days - -

proposed

proposed

crude

nor th

nor th

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0 n.o

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 n n n r\ n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0 o.n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

.

0.0

<

o.o

;0.0

0.0

1>

0.0

1 0

.00.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 0

.01

0.0

I 0

.0i

0.1

> 0

.05

0.0

0.0

11 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 21 24

27

Note: n

= less than 0.5 percent/

**

= greater than 99.5 percent. Segments with le


of one or more contacts within 30

days are not

shown.

Table Q-10. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of

on

e ormore spills* an

d th

e expected number of spills (mean)

occurring jnd

contacting la

nd segments

(set

2)

over th


fe of

th

e lease

area*

proposed sale 78

(southern leases* P1-P9* mean resource estimate) vs

. proposed sa

le 78

(southern leases*

P1-P

9* hi

gh resource estimate) vs

. crude oi

l and

refined products.

Probabilities are

for

spills 10*000

barrels an

d greater.

Land

Segment

. Within 3

days

-.-proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

tf

ithi

n 10

days

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 30

da

ys

proposed

proposed

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

1 2 4 7 8 10 11 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 27

Note:

n =

less than 0.5

percent; ** 3

greater than 99


an 0.5 percent probability

of one or

more contacts within 30 days ar

e no

t shown.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n . n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

6.0

0.0 o.p

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 2 n n n n 2 n 3 1 n n n 1 5 1 n n n 4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 9 n 1 i n 3 2 4 1 2 1 1 2 9 5 n 2 1 6

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

n n n n n n n n n.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 n- n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

21

6 2 1 1 1 5 4 7 3 4 5 5 414 28 9

111 7

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

Table B-11. -- Probabilities (expressed as


e orwore spills/ an

d the

expected number of spills (m

ean)

occurring an

d contacting la

nd segments

(set

2)

ov

er the


the

lease

area/

proposed sa

le 78

and existing tracts (northern le

ases

/ P10-P17, E1-E5/ mean resource estimate) vs.

proposed sale 78

and existing tracts (northern leases/

P10-P17/ E1-E5/ hi

gh resource estimate) vs.

crude

oil

imports.

Probabilities ar

e for


ro 00

.Land

Segment

- Within 3

days

cuaul.

cumul.

north

north

mean

high

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Within 10 days --

-

cumul.

crude

nor th

oil

high

only

in

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- -- within 30

days -

cumul.

cumu

l.

crude

north

north

oil

mean

high

only

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

2 A11

13 15 16 17 18

19 20

21 22

23

24 27

Note: n

» less than 0.5 percent; **

*


of one or more contacts within 30 days are not shown.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0 n.o

n.o

i n n.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0 o.o.

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 1 n n n ?

n n

n n'

n n n n n 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 6 2 3 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Table B-12. --



e ormore spills* an

d the

expected number of

spills (mean)

occurring and contacting la

nd segments

(set

2)

over the


th

e lease

area*

proposed sa

le 78

and

existing tracts (southern leases* P1-P9* E6-E33* mean resource estimate) vs

. proposed

sale

78

an

d existing tracts (southern leases* P1-P9* E6-E33* high resource estimate) vs

. crude oi

l and

refined products.

Probabilities ar

e fo

r spills 10*000 barrels and greater*

< ro

Land

Segment

_ within 3

Jays

cumul.

cumul.

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

- - Within 10 da

ys --------

cumu

l.

cumu

l.

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

* .- Within 30 days

cumul.

cumul.

crude

south

south

and

mean

high

refined

Prob

Mean

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

1 2 4 7 8 10 11 13 15 16

17 13 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 27

Note:

n =

less than 0.5

percent/ ** =



of on

e or

more contacts within 30

da

ys are

not

shown.


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 2 n n n

n 2 n 3 1 . n n n 1 5 1 n n n 4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n .n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 9 n 1 1 n 3 2

4 1 2 1 1 2 9 5 n 2 1 6

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

'0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0,1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1


0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 1 1,

n n n 1 n 1 n 1 1 1 n n 1 n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

21

6 2 1 1 1 5 4 7 3 4 5 5 414 2

8 911

1 7

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

Appendix C

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1 23456NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHIN 3 DAYS

-Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting marine turtle nesting habitat.as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

133

ONSLOW BAY LIVE BOT.

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

CO

§ 0-2& 0.1

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NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHIN 30 DAYS

CD

CO§0.2 Ho- 0.1

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Figure C-4.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specificnumbers of oilspills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting Onslow Bay Live bottom area as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

WILDLIFE CONSER,

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

> t-Jtu ~ *£0.3 - §0.2 -°- Q.\

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Figure C-5. Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting Federal and State wildlife conservation areas as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

135

PARKS MAY-OCT

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

0.1 0.0

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NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITH!N 10 DAYS

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NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITH'N 3 DAYSFigure C-6.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers

of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting Federal and State parks from May through October as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

136

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NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHIN 3 DAYSFigure C-8.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers

of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting Blackbeard, Sapelo and Wolf Islands as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

138

GRAYS REEF

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

1 2 NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHIN 30 DAYS

CD< CD Oor

0.1 0.0 1


CD<CD Oor o- 0.1

0.01 2 3

NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHIN 3 DAYSFigure C-9. Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers

of oil spills (1,000 and greater) occurring and contacting Grays Reef as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

139

CAPE ROMAIN WILD.

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

CO< en o cr°- 0.10.0 I

1NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHIN 30 DAYS

CD< CD O

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of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting Cape RomaiM National wilderness area as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

140

DMONITOR

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CDCD o o:°- 0.1

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NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHIN 3 DAYSFigure C-11 . Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers

of oilspills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting Monitor Marine sanctuary as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

141

TOURIST BEACHES. NC

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED



CD< en o o:0J 0.0 1

1 2 3 NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHIN 3 DAYS

Figure C-12. Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting tourist beaches - North Carolina as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

142

TOURiST BEACHES. SO

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

CO

COoCL°- 0.1

0.0 i 1


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of oil spills (1.000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting tourist beaches - South Carolina as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

143

fOURIST BEACHES. CA

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED


I 2


.jCQ < CQ O OS

0.1 0.0

I 2 3 NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHIN 3 DAYS

Figure C-14. Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting tourist beaches - Georgia as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

144

TOURIST BEACHES. FL

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

§0.2 °- 0.1

0.01 2 3


PROBAB

0.2 -0.1 - 01 a if


en §0,2 H^ 0.1

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NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITH!N 3 DAYSFigure C-15. Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers

of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting tourist beaches - Florida as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

145

COASTAL INLETS. NC

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

-JCO

eno 0P -1o: * *°- 0.1 -

a 011^3P^ 1! H 1


i aNUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHIN 10 DAYS

=JCO<CO Oor

0J 0.0


Figure C-16.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting coastal inlets - North Carolina as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

146

COASTAL INLETS. SC

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED


CO

COg 0.2 H0- 0.J

0.01 2


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NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHJN 3 DAYSFigure C-17.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers

of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting coastal inlets - South Carolina as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

147

COASTAL INLETS. CA

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

> »--Zj

§0.2 -a- 0.1 -

0.01 2 3

NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITHfN 30 DAYS4


CD < CD Oo:

0.1 0.0


Figure C-18.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting coastal inlets - Georgia as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

148

COASTAL INLETS.

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

£0.3 H o 0^2 a. 0j -

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Figure C-l9. Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting coastal inlets - Florida as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

149

HISTORIC SITES

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

>~t-I

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0.041 2 3

NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITH!N 3 DAYSFigure C-20.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers

of oilspills (1.000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting historic sites as a result of crude oil imports and refined products

150

PREHISTORIC SITES

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED


CO<COoQC

0.1 0.0


CO< en o o:0.1 0.0

1 2 3 NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITH'N 3 DAYS

Figure C-21. Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting prehistoric sites as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

151

COASTAL WATERBIRDS

D CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

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Figure C-22.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oilspills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting coastal waterbird colonies as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

152

MANATEE HABITAT

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

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Figure C-23.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting manatee critical habitat as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

153

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PEREG, PALC. M5GR,

D CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

enCO§ 0.2 1 a- 0.1

0.01 2



CO<§cr0J 0,0

1 2 3 NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITH5N 3 DAY3

Figure C-27.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oil spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting Peregrine Falcon migratory stopover areas as a result of crude oil imports and refined products.

157

BALD EAGLE NESTING

CRUDE

CRUDE AND REFINED

CD

CD O QC°- 0.1

0.01


CD < CD O

0.1

0.01


CDCD o

0J 4 0.0 L


Figure C-28.--Histograms showing the overall probabilities of specific numbers of oilspills (1.000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting Bald Eagle nesting sites as a result of crude oil imports andrefined products.

158

Appendix D

159

NORTH CAROLINA -

GEORGIA

ATLANTIC

OCEAN

PERCENT PROBABILITY

10

20

30

40

FLORIDA

Figure D-l.--Map showing the probability (percent chance) of one or more spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting sections of the coastline (set 1) within 30 days travel time (crude oil imports).

160

NORTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLIN

GEORGIA

ATLANTIC

OCEAN

PERCENT PROBABILITY

10

20

30

40

FLORIDA

Figure D-2. Map showing the probability (percent chance) of one or more spills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting sections of the coastline (set 1) within 30 days travel time (crude oil imports and refined products).

161

by william b. samuels - usgs

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