FROM HEADWATERS TRIBUTARIES TO INTERNATIONAL RIVER:

observing adapting to climate change variability and change in Nile basin

By:Yasmine Fouad Marwa Mahgoub

Faculty of Economics and Political Science Cairo UniversityEuro med PHD Program

2010/2011

Outline of the presentation

Objective and scope of the study International level: Nile as a source of the study of

variability Contextualizing climate change including future analogues case studies

Ethiopia

Egypt NBI and climate adaptation conclusion

"if the wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water -- unless we change our approach to managing this precious and vital resource". Ismail Serageldin whilst World Bank Vice President, August 1995

“The main conflicts in Africa during the next 25 years could be over that most precious of commodities - water, as countries fight for access to scarce resources”

BBC News online, reporting on a UNDP report, 15 November 1999

Water Wars?

Objective of the Study

Selection of the Nile basin are explored in terms of adaptation to climate variability and change at the international and national levels.

International level: the international context of water management and allocation in the Nile basin.

National level:Egypt’s position as a down stream riparian and being water scarce.

Required adaptive actions( who is involved, magnitude and level)

International level

Nile as a source of variability

Literature review of the qualitative and quantitative studies of climate change and their main results ( 1994-2003) include :

Different Models of climate change to investigate the sensitivity of river flow and lake level to various evaporation scenarios

Those studies shared the same point of the uncertainties involved in predicting climate change and that the planning processes and hydrologic methodologies need to be improved to deal with this challenge

International river basins in Africa

Wolf et al. 1999

International river basins in Africa

Wolf et al. 1999

Drier 8 – 15 %

Wetter 8 – 15 %

Large uncertaintiesResults based on Milly et al. (2005) Nature

Runoff changes in 2050s

Slide adapted from one by D. Conway

The River Nile Basin

Multiple uses of river and lake water: Hydropower, irrigation agriculture, lake fisheries, industry, domestic, wetland agriculture, wildlife.

Contextualizing climate change

Need to understand the climate society interlinkages

Temperature

Magnitude and duration will differ than the past with increase in temperature

Rain fall

Interannual and interdecadal variability is large and climate

model is less consistent

Nile Delta – sea level rise What are the key

vulnerabilities to climate change in the Nile Basin? Egypt – long-term water security

Sudan - extreme events and food security

Ethiopia – food security

Lake Victoriabasin region – extreme events, hydropower generation

Slide: D. Conway

The River Nile basin institutions

Multi-lateral institutions: Basin wide: Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), Hydromet survey, TECCONILE, Regional: East African Community / Lake Victoria Basin Commission.Kagera River Basin Organisation

Bilateral institutions: Permanent Joint Technical Committee

National institutionsMinistries of Water, Foreign Ministries, Nile Basin Discourse Forum

Nile Basin agreements

International: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses (not ratified by Nile basin countries)

Basin-wide agreements: Cooperative Framework Agreement

(currently under negotiation)

Bilateral agreements, e.g. 1929 Egypt and GB (Sudan) 1959 Egypt and Sudan

Multilateral 1977, 1981 Kagera River Basin (Bu, Rw,

Tz, Ug) 2003 Lake Victoria protocol (Ky, Tz, Ug)

Current water allocation in the Nile Basin

Status quo: existing use based on 1959 agreement

1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan divides Nile flows between Sudan and Egypt

No water allocated to upper basin states

Rejected by other Nile Basin countries who call for a new agreement

66%22%

12%

Egypt = 55.5 bcm

Sudan = 18.5 bcm

evaporation = 10 bcm

Future water allocation in the Nile Basin

Current negotiations for a cooperative framework agreement under NBI

Multiple principles for deciding water allocation1. Avoiding significant harm

2. Equitable use - many possible criteria, e.g.:

• GDP

• Population in basin

• Area of country in basin

• Prior use

3. Benefit sharing

Egypt11.3%

Sudan28.2%

DRC26.4%

Rwanda0.3%

Kenya6.5% Uganda

2.7%

Ethiopia12.4%

Tanzania10.6%

Burundi0.3%

Eritrea1.3%

Population in Nile Basin by country

Case studies

1) Head water tributaries: adaptation in Ethiopian highlands and lake Victoria

2) Down stream riparian's : observing adaptation to climate change in Egypt

Ethiopia

Historical and contemporary evidence shows the problem of food security in Ethiopia explicit of climate change

Impact of climate variability on drought and food security in Ethiopia is unpredictable

Rural population in Ethiopia (around 80% of the population ) is all about coping

Current shift in water flows in lake Victoria levels an outflow is an excellent example for impact of climate change over water resources

Egypt

Climate variability is still a challenge for the available water resources especially with rapid growing population that makes this current surplus dwindling fast

Effects of the dry periods can be seen in the record of the Aswan high Dam ( AHD) where 1988 showed major water shortage and prepared country for future planning scenarios including institutional setups for modeling and forecasting of the upstream flow.( ABU Zeid and Hefny 1992)

The AHD buffers against the interannual variability but recent

decades highlight Egypt's vulnerability to inter decadal variability

Egypt

Literature clearly demonstrates that Egypt had wide spread awareness and recognition on water scarcity and the need to act for example Egypt’s water vision for the 21st century shows that it is moving from supply to integrated approach which includes both supply and demand management

Paradoxically, Egypt is engaged in a massive expansion policy for integrated agriculture in the western desert and sinai

Egypt also is working on largest pumping station for irrigation scheme for the western desert whilst there is shortage in the AHD

The MWRI has strong technical capacity in water management, but less

institutional and socio economic capacities on water demand management options and its linkage to climate change

Nile Basin Initiative and climate change adaptation

Climate change recently taken up as an issue Some projects may contribute to adaptation,

e.g.:

• Flood preparedness and early warning system

• Decision support system for water resources planning

NBI doesn’t address many unilateral water resource developments underway or planned in the basin

Conclusion Effect of climate variability on rain fall interdecadal will affect

Nile flow and consequently the water resources in Egypt Ethopia is embarking on basket of polices ( mainly adaptation)

to face food security through greater utilization of the Nile The increase in Egypt ‘s great demand system will reduce

Egypt’s flexibility to manage changes in future water supply climate adaptation is vital for meeting the challenge of water

scarcity There is a need to work on adaptation actions, its scale and

level of involvement of different stakeholders.

More research is needed on socio economic context of climate adaptation

There is a need to have more research on the scarcity issue as an opportunity to force cooperation between countries.

Thank you for your Kind attention