c2 maturity model experimental validation

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1 C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation Statistical Analyses of ELICIT Experimentation Data Dr. David S. Alberts

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C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation. Statistical Analyses of ELICIT Experimentation Data Dr. David S. Alberts. Agenda. Background Available Data Analysis Plan Results of Analyses Conclusions. Background. SAS-065 has developed a C2 Maturity Model for NATO Network Enabled Capability - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

1

C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

Statistical Analyses of ELICIT Experimentation Data

Dr. David S. Alberts

Page 2: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

2

Agenda

• Background

• Available Data

• Analysis Plan

• Results of Analyses

• Conclusions

Page 3: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

3

Background

• SAS-065 has developed a C2 Maturity Model for NATO Network Enabled Capability

• SAS-065 is engaged in a variety of activities to “validate” this model– Case studies: Analysis of historical complex endeavors to

establish construct validity– Analysis of Experimentation Data to test a set of maturity model

hypotheses

• ELICIT is an experimentation platform that instruments the actions of a group of participants engaged in a situational awareness problem

• ELICIT experiments have explored differences between “edge” and “hierarchical” organizations

Page 4: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

4

ELICIT Scenario

• The goal of each set of participants is to build situational awareness and identify the who, what, when, and where of a pending attack– Participants can share factoids directly with each other or post factoids to

websites

– Participants build awareness by gathering and analyzing factoids and interacting with one another

– No one is given sufficient information to solve their assigned problem without receiving information from others

• The receiving, sharing, and posting of factoids and the nature of the interactions between and among participants can be constrained

• C2 approach for this series of experiments were designated prior to the start of the run asHierarchy or Edge

Hierarchy

Edge

Page 5: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

5

Hypotheses

• “Hierarchical” organizations as instantiated in ELICIT experiments correspond to De-Conflicted C2 in the NATO C2 Maturity Model

• “Edge” organizations as instantiated in ELICIT experiments correspond to a higher level of maturity in the NATO C2 Maturity Model

• Hypotheses: – Edge organizations exhibit the behaviors associated with

Coordinated and Collaborative levels of C2 Maturity

– Hierarchical organizations exhibit the behaviors associated with the De-conflicted level of C2 Maturity

– Edge organizations exhibit higher levels of effectiveness and efficiency than Hierarchical organizations

Page 6: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

6

ELICIT Data Set

• Includes data from 37 ELICIT experimentation trials

• Venues– Boston Univ. (2 runs)

– NPS (16 runs)

– Portugal (6 runs)

– USMA (3 runs)

– Singapore (10 runs)

• Organization Types – 18 Edge

– 19 Hierarchy

Page 7: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

7

Agenda

• Background

• Available Data

• Analysis Plan

• Results of Analyses

• Conclusions

Page 8: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

8

Variables of Interest

Info Sharing &Collaborative

Behaviors

SharedInformation

Quality of Information

Shared Awareness

Quality of Awareness

SharedUnderstanding

Quality of Understanding

TaskPerformance

TaskDifficulty

Measures of Merit

NetworkCharacteristics& Performance

Individual& Team

Characteristics

Culture

Allocation of Decision Rights

Quality of Information

Sources

Patterns of Interaction

Distribution of Information

C2 Maturity Level

Partially Controllable

Controllable

Legend

Page 9: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

9

Dependent Variables

• MOE = Quality of Awareness and Shared Awareness– Correctness (Authorized Correct IDs)

– Timeliness (Person-Minutes with Correct IDs)

– Accuracy rate (Correct IDs/Total IDs)

• Efficiency, Given Effectiveness– Productivity (Correct IDs/Total Actions; Correct IDs/Person-

Minutes Available)

– Speed (Time of Earliest Correct ID)

• Agility– Effectiveness over problem difficulty

Page 10: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

10

C2 Approach Independent Variables

• Hierarchy v. Edge– We expect Hierarchy to map to De-conflicted and Edge to map to

a more mature level

– Each run will be mapped to a point in the C2 Approach Space based on observed behaviors

• Rules of Interaction– Website access

– Sharing permissions

• Initial Distribution of Factoids – Invariant in existing runs

Page 11: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

11

C2 Approach Intervening Variables

• Patterns of Interaction – Characteristic path length

– Clustering coefficient

– Connectedness

• Distribution of Information– The average number of unique facts to which each participant has

access as a function of time

Page 12: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

12

Measures of C2 Effectiveness (MOCE)

• Quality of Information Position– Percentage of relevant facts for the assigned task that a participant

can access as a function of time

– Percentage of key facts for the assigned task that a participant can access as a function of time

• Extent of Shared Information– The average number of participants that have access to each fact as

a function of time

– The average number of participants that have access to each key fact as a function of time

Page 13: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

13

Intervening Behavioral Variables

• Activity over time (sharing, website posts, website pulls, ID attempts)– Sharing

• Peer-to-peer sharing

• Posting

– Information Seeking

• Pulling

– Identification Attempts

Page 14: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

14

Other Independent Variables

• IDs allowed• ELICIT experience of the player• Factoid set (problem difficulty)• Translated factoids v. original• Native Language (English v. Other)• Communications media

– Postcards– Chat

• Time available• Degree of Education (Graduate, Undergraduate)• Seniority (Rank)• Subcultures (Military, Civilian, Special Forces, Civil

Servants)

Page 15: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

15

Agenda

• Background

• Available Data

• Analysis Plan

• Results of Analyses

• Conclusions

Page 16: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

16

Dependent Variables

• MOE = Quality of Awareness and Shared Awareness– Correctness (Authorized Correct IDs)

– Timeliness (Person-Minutes with Correct IDs)

– Accuracy rate (Correct IDs/Total IDs)

• Efficiency, Given Effectiveness– Productivity (Correct IDs/Total Actions; Correct IDs/Person-

Minutes Available)

– Speed (Time of Earliest Correct ID)

• Agility– Effectiveness over problem difficulty

Page 17: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

17

MOE: CorrectnessFraction of Participants with Correct IDs

1

3

5

Cou

nt

-0.1 0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.94118

0.94118

0.94118

0.88824

0.52941

0.35294

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.3464052

0.3233808

0.0762216

0.5072187

0.1855917

18

Moments

Fraction of Participants with Correct ID

Distributions Structure=Edge

2

6

10

Cou

nt

-0.1 0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.64706

0.64706

0.64706

0.47059

0.23529

0.05882

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.1331269

0.1909547

0.043808

0.2251642

0.0410897

19

Moments

Fraction of Participants with Correct ID

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy Hierarchy

Edge

Page 18: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

18

MOE: CorrectnessFraction of Participants with Correct IDs

Edge Better Than HierarchySignificant at 0.95 level

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Fra

ctio

n of

Par

ticip

ants

with

Cor

rect

ID

Edge Hierarchy

Structure

Hierarchy-Edge

Assuming unequal variances

Difference

Std Err Dif

Upper CL Dif

Lower CL Dif

Confidence

-0.21328

0.08791

-0.03298

-0.39358

0.95

t Ratio

DF

Prob > |t|

Prob > t

Prob < t

-2.42599

27.2754

0.0221*

0.9889

0.0111 * -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

t Test

Oneway Analysis of Fraction of Participants with Correct ID By Structure

Page 19: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

19

MOE: CorrectnessFraction of Participants with Authorized Correct IDs

Note: Half credit given for partially correct answers in authorized areas

1

2

Cou

nt

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.95588

0.95588

0.95588

0.94118

0.76471

0.55882

0.44853

0.16176

0.13971

0.13971

0.13971

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.5901703

0.2531976

0.0580875

0.7122076

0.468133

19

Moments

Fraction of Total Participants with Authorized Correct IDs

Distributions Structure=Edge

1

3

5

7

Cou

nt

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.26471

0.26471

0.26471

0.24485

0.19853

0.12132

0.08640

0.04191

0.02206

0.02206

0.02206

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.1388889

0.0716849

0.0168963

0.1745369

0.1032408

18

Moments

Fraction of Total Participants with Authorized Correct IDs

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy Hierarchy

Edge

Page 20: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

20

MOE: CorrectnessFraction of Authorized Participants with Correct ID

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1F

ract

ion

of T

otal

Par

ticip

ants

with

Aut

horiz

ed C

orre

ct ID

s

Edge Hierarchy

Structure

Hierarchy-Edge

Assuming unequal variances

Difference

Std Err Dif

Upper CL Dif

Lower CL Dif

Confidence

-0.45128

0.06049

-0.32548

-0.57708

0.95

t Ratio

DF

Prob > |t|

Prob > t

Prob < t

-7.45982

21.01549

<.0001*

1.0000

<.0001* -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5

t Test

Oneway Analysis of Fraction of Total Participants with Authorized Correct IDs By Structure

Edge Better Than Hierarchy

Significant at 0.95 level|t-Ratio| = 7.46

Page 21: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

21

Measuring Timeliness:Person-Minutes with Correct ID

• In the ELICIT scenario, operational value is associated both with the number of participants achieving the correct answer, as well as when they achieved it

• Person minutes with correct ID captures the proportion of possible situational understanding achieved by trial participants over the time of the trial– For each minute, each participant’s level of understanding is assessed

by the score assigned to his/her most recent identification attempt– This value is summed over the duration of the trial to arrive at the

person-minutes correct for each participant– Person-minutes correct for the trial is calculated by summing over all

participants– A ratio of the person minutes correct for the trial to the total person

minutes available in the trial adjusts for varying trial lengths

Page 22: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

22

MOE: TimelinessFraction of Person-Minutes Correct

1

3

5

7

Cou

nt

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.41224

0.41224

0.41224

0.39878

0.19575

0.09355

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.1282984

0.1436907

0.0338682

0.1997541

0.0568427

18

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Edge

5

10

Cou

nt

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.24009

0.24009

0.24009

0.06631

0.04838

0.00205

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0310971

0.0563214

0.012921

0.0582431

0.0039511

19

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy Hierarchy

Edge

Page 23: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

23

Edge Better Than HierarchySignificant at 0.95 level

MOE: TimelinessFraction of Person-Minutes Correct

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4P

erso

n-M

inut

es C

orre

ct/

Per

son-

Min

utes

Ava

ilabl

e

Edge Hierarchy

Structure

Hierarchy-Edge

Assuming unequal variances

Difference

Std Err Dif

Upper CL Dif

Lower CL Dif

Confidence

-0.09720

0.03625

-0.02200

-0.17240

0.95

t Ratio

DF

Prob > |t|

Prob > t

Prob < t

-2.68147

21.8712

0.0137*

0.9932

0.0068* -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10

t Test

Oneway Analysis of Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available By Structure

Page 24: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

24

MOE: Accuracy RateFraction of ID Attempts that are Correct

1

3

5

7

Cou

nt

-0.1 0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.94118

0.94118

0.94118

0.88824

0.54167

0.12334

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.3042396

0.3325204

0.0783758

0.4695981

0.1388811

18

Moments

Fraction of IDs that are Correct

Distributions Structure=Edge

2

6

10

Cou

nt

-0.1 0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.64706

0.64706

0.64706

0.42105

0.25000

0.02632

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.1353537

0.1891115

0.0433852

0.2265025

0.0442048

19

Moments

Fraction of IDs that are Correct

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy Hierarchy

Edge

Page 25: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

25

MOE: Accuracy RateFraction of ID Attempts that are Correct

Edge Better Than HierarchySignificant at 0.95 level

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Fra

ctio

n of

IDs

that

are

Cor

rect

Edge Hierarchy

Structure

Hierarchy-Edge

Assuming unequal variances

Difference

Std Err Dif

Upper CL Dif

Lower CL Dif

Confidence

-0.16889

0.08958

0.01503

-0.35281

0.95

t Ratio

DF

Prob > |t|

Prob > t

Prob < t

-1.88525

26.65115

0.0703

0.9648

0.0352* -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

t Test

Oneway Analysis of Fraction of IDs that are Correct By Structure

Page 26: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

26

Efficiency: Productivity (Actions)Correct ID / Total Actions

2

6

10

Cou

nt

-0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.02722

0.02722

0.02722

0.02335

0.00611

0.00327

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0052312

0.0077099

0.0018173

0.0090652

0.0013971

18

Moments

Correct IDs/Total Actions

Distributions Structure=Edge

5

10

15

Cou

nt

-0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.01583

0.01583

0.01583

0.00873

0.00347

0.00054

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.002364

0.0040134

0.0009207

0.0042984

0.0004296

19

Moments

Correct IDs/Total Actions

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy Hierarchy

Edge

Page 27: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

27

Efficiency: Productivity (Actions)Correct ID / Total Actions

Difference not Significant at 0.95 level|t-Ratio| = 1.41

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

Cor

rect

IDs/

Tota

l Act

ions

Edge Hierarchy

Structure

Hierarchy-Edge

Assuming unequal variances

Difference

Std Err Dif

Upper CL Dif

Lower CL Dif

Confidence

-0.00287

0.00204

0.00133

-0.00706

0.95

t Ratio

DF

Prob > |t|

Prob > t

Prob < t

-1.4074

25.27534

0.1715

0.9143

0.0857 -0.008 -0.004 0.000 0.004 0.008

t Test

Oneway Analysis of Correct IDs/Total Actions By Structure

Page 28: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

28

Efficiency: Productivity (Person-Minutes)Correct IDs / Person-Minutes Available

1

3

5

Cou

nt

0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.02176

0.02176

0.02176

0.01749

0.00979

0.00525

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0064197

0.0064876

0.0015292

0.0096459

0.0031935

18

Moments

Correct IDs/Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Edge

5

10

Cou

nt

0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.00976

0.00976

0.00976

0.00744

0.00550

0.00123

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.002384

0.0031207

0.0007159

0.0038881

0.0008799

19

Moments

Correct IDs/Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy Hierarchy

Edge

Page 29: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

29

Efficiency: Productivity (Person-Minutes)Correct IDs / Person-Minutes Available

Edge Better Than HierarchySignificant at 0.95 level

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02C

orre

ct ID

s/P

erso

n-

Min

utes

Ava

ilabl

e

Edge Hierarchy

Structure

Hierarchy-Edge

Assuming unequal variances

Difference

Std Err Dif

Upper CL Dif

Lower CL Dif

Confidence

-0.00404

0.00169

-0.00055

-0.00752

0.95

t Ratio

DF

Prob > |t|

Prob > t

Prob < t

-2.3902

24.17268

0.0250*

0.9875

0.0125* -0.006 -0.003 0.000 0.003 0.006

t Test

Oneway Analysis of Correct IDs/Person-Minutes Available By Structure

Page 30: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

30

Efficiency: SpeedTime of Earliest Correct ID

1

3

5

Cou

nt

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

120.00

120.00

120.00

120.00

120.00

27.09

14.13

12.46

7.75

7.75

7.75

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

49.731481

46.078721

10.860859

72.64589

26.817073

18

Moments

Earliest Correct ID

Distributions Structure=Edge

1

3

5

7

Cou

nt

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

120.00

120.00

120.00

120.00

120.00

54.05

27.67

20.93

18.45

18.45

18.45

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

74.096491

45.485592

10.435111

96.019845

52.173137

19

Moments

Earliest Correct ID

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy Hierarchy

Edge

Page 31: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

31

Efficiency: SpeedTime of Earliest Correct ID

Difference not Significant at 0.95 level|t-Ratio| = 1.62

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ear

liest

Cor

rect

ID

Edge Hierarchy

Structure

Hierarchy-Edge

Assuming unequal variances

Difference

Std Err Dif

Upper CL Dif

Lower CL Dif

Confidence

24.365

15.062

54.947

-6.217

0.95

t Ratio

DF

Prob > |t|

Prob > t

Prob < t

1.617698

34.83622

0.1147

0.0574

0.9426 -50 -30 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

t Test

Oneway Analysis of Earliest Correct ID By Structure

Page 32: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

32

AgilityMOE: Timeliness over Problem Difficulty

Edge Effectiveness is Degraded Less Than Hierarchy

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.24318

0.24318

0.24318

0.24318

0.13778

0.01092

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.057295

0.1047481

0.0468448

0.1873569

-0.072767

5

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Edge, Factoid Difficulty=Difficult

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.41224

0.41224

0.41224

0.40626

0.27928

0.12907

0.02003

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.1556074

0.1506121

0.0417723

0.2466214

0.0645934

13

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Edge, Factoid Difficulty=Standard

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.02606

0.02606

0.02606

0.02606

0.00652

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0043436

0.0106397

0.0043436

0.0155093

-0.006822

6

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy, Factoid Difficulty=Difficult

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.24009

0.24009

0.24009

0.17058

0.05729

0.03994

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

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Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0434448

0.0647142

0.0179485

0.0825513

0.0043384

13

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy, Factoid Difficulty=Standard

Fraction of Person-Minutes Correct

Fraction of Person-Minutes Correct

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.24318

0.24318

0.24318

0.24318

0.13778

0.01092

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

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Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.057295

0.1047481

0.0468448

0.1873569

-0.072767

5

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Edge, Factoid Difficulty=Difficult

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

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0.41224

0.41224

0.40626

0.27928

0.12907

0.02003

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

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Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.1556074

0.1506121

0.0417723

0.2466214

0.0645934

13

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Edge, Factoid Difficulty=Standard

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.02606

0.02606

0.02606

0.02606

0.00652

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

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Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0043436

0.0106397

0.0043436

0.0155093

-0.006822

6

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy, Factoid Difficulty=Difficult

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

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0.24009

0.24009

0.17058

0.05729

0.03994

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0434448

0.0647142

0.0179485

0.0825513

0.0043384

13

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy, Factoid Difficulty=Standard

Hierarchy

StandardFactoidSets

DifficultFactoidSets

Edge

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.24318

0.24318

0.24318

0.24318

0.13778

0.01092

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

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Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.057295

0.1047481

0.0468448

0.1873569

-0.072767

5

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Edge, Factoid Difficulty=Difficult

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.41224

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0.41224

0.40626

0.27928

0.12907

0.02003

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

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Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.1556074

0.1506121

0.0417723

0.2466214

0.0645934

13

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Edge, Factoid Difficulty=Standard

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

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0.02606

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0.00000

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Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0043436

0.0106397

0.0043436

0.0155093

-0.006822

6

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy, Factoid Difficulty=Difficult

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

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0.17058

0.05729

0.03994

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0.00000

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Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0434448

0.0647142

0.0179485

0.0825513

0.0043384

13

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy, Factoid Difficulty=Standard

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.24318

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0.24318

0.24318

0.13778

0.01092

0.00000

0.00000

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Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.057295

0.1047481

0.0468448

0.1873569

-0.072767

5

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Edge, Factoid Difficulty=Difficult

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.41224

0.41224

0.41224

0.40626

0.27928

0.12907

0.02003

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.1556074

0.1506121

0.0417723

0.2466214

0.0645934

13

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Edge, Factoid Difficulty=Standard

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.02606

0.02606

0.02606

0.02606

0.00652

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0043436

0.0106397

0.0043436

0.0155093

-0.006822

6

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy, Factoid Difficulty=Difficult

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

100.0%

99.5%

97.5%

90.0%

75.0%

50.0%

25.0%

10.0%

2.5%

0.5%

0.0%

maximum

quartile

median

quartile

minimum

0.24009

0.24009

0.24009

0.17058

0.05729

0.03994

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

Quantiles

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err Mean

upper 95% Mean

lower 95% Mean

N

0.0434448

0.0647142

0.0179485

0.0825513

0.0043384

13

Moments

Person-Minutes Correct/ Person-Minutes Available

Distributions Structure=Hierarchy, Factoid Difficulty=Standard

Fraction of Person-Minutes Correct

Fraction of Person-Minutes Correct

Page 33: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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C2 Approach Intervening Variables

• Patterns of Interaction – Characteristic path length

– Clustering coefficient

– Connectedness

• Distribution of Information– The average number of unique facts to which each participant has

access as a function of time

Page 34: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Structure within Time Interval

Chart

Structure Edge Hierarchy

Distribution of InformationThe cumulative number of unique facts to which

each participant has access over time

Time (minutes)

Page 35: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Structure within Time Interval

Chart

Structure Edge Hierarchy

Distribution of InformationThe cumulative number of unique facts to which

each participant has access over time

Time (minutes)Edge Better Than Hierarchy

Significant at 0.95 level

Page 36: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Measures of C2 Effectiveness

• Quality of Information Position– Percentage of relevant facts for the assigned task that a participant

can access as a function of time

– Percentage of key facts for the assigned task that a participant can access as a function of time

• Extent of Shared Information– The average number of participants that have access to each fact as

a function of time

– The average number of participants that have access to each key fact as a function of time

Page 37: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

MOCE: Quality of Information Position Percentage of relevant facts for the assigned task that

a participant can access as a function of time

Time (minutes)

Page 38: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

MOCE: Quality of Information Position Percentage of relevant facts for the assigned task that

a participant can access as a function of time

Time (minutes)Edge Better Than Hierarchy

Significant at 0.95 level

Page 39: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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MOCE: Quality of Information Position Percentage of key facts for the assigned task that a

participant can access as a function of time

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Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)

Key fact: Factoid Labeled as “Key” or “Key-Expertise”

Page 40: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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MOCE: Quality of Information Position Percentage of key facts for the assigned task that a

participant can access as a function of time

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Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)Edge Better Than Hierarchy

Significant at 0.95 level

Key fact: Factoid Labeled as “Key” or “Key-Expertise”

Page 41: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Org Type within Time

Chart

Org Type Edge Hierarchy

MOCE: Extent of Shared InformationThe average number of participants that have

access to each fact as a function of time

Time (minutes)

Page 42: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Org Type within Time

Chart

Org Type Edge Hierarchy

MOCE: Extent of Shared InformationThe average number of participants that have

access to each fact as a function of time

Time (minutes)Edge Better Than Hierarchy

Significant at 0.95 level

Page 43: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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MOCE: Extent of Shared InformationThe average number of participants that have access to each key fact as a function of time

Key fact: Factoid Labeled as “Key” or “Key-Expertise”

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Org Type by Time (minutes)

Average Number of Participants Knowing Key Facts by Time (minutes)

Org Type Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)

Page 44: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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MOCE: Extent of Shared InformationThe average number of participants that have access to each key fact as a function of time

Key fact: Factoid Labeled as “Key” or “Key-Expertise”

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Org Type by Time (minutes)

Average Number of Participants Knowing Key Facts by Time (minutes)

Org Type Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)Edge Better Than Hierarchy

Significant at 0.95 level

Page 45: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Intervening Behavioral Variables

• Activity over time (sharing, website posts, website pulls, ID)– Sharing

• Peer-to-peer

• Posting

– Information Seeking

• Pulling

– Identification

Page 46: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Activity over Time Peer to Peer Sharing

-10

0

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Mea

n(P

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)

Page 47: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Activity over Time Peer to Peer Sharing

-10

0

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Mea

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)

Hierarchy Better Than Edge at 10 min

No Significant Difference at 45 min

(at 0.95 level)

Page 48: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Activity over Time Posts

0

10

Mea

n(P

osts

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)

Page 49: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Activity over Time Posts

0

10

Mea

n(P

osts

)

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iera

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Edg

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iera

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)No Significant Difference

at 0.95 level

Page 50: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

50

Activity over Time Information Seeking (Pulls)

0

100

Mea

n(P

ulls

)

Edg

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Edg

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rchy

Edg

eH

iera

rchy

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)

Page 51: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

51

Activity over Time Information Seeking (Pulls)

0

100

Mea

n(P

ulls

)

Edg

eH

iera

rchy

Edg

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Edg

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)Edge Better Than Hierarchy

Significant at 0.95 Level

Page 52: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Activity over Time ID Attempts

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sum

(ID

s)

Edg

eH

iera

rchy

Edg

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rchy

Edg

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eH

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Edg

eH

iera

rchy

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)

Page 53: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Activity over Time ID Attempts

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sum

(ID

s)

Edg

eH

iera

rchy

Edg

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Edg

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Edg

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rchy

Edg

eH

iera

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Organization within Time Interval

Chart

Organization Edge Hierarchy

Time (minutes)No Significant Difference

at 0.95 level

Page 54: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Summary of Findings

• Edge structures exhibit more mature behaviors than Hierarchical structures– Distribution of Information– Quality of Information Position– Extent of Shared Information– Information Seeking (Pulling)

• Edge structures are more effective than Hierarchical structures– Correctness– Timeliness– Accuracy Rate

• Edge structures are generally more efficient than Hierarchical structures– Productivity (Person-Minutes)– Productivity (Actions) – at 90% level– Speed – at 90% level

• Edge structures are more agile than Hierarchical structures– Effectiveness over Problem Difficulty

Page 55: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Agenda

• Background

• Available Data

• Analysis Plan

• Results of Analyses

• Conclusions

Page 56: C2 Maturity Model Experimental Validation

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Conclusion

• The data are consistent with the NATO C2 Maturity Model assumptions and hypotheses

• Additional analyses still underway– Extraction and analysis of network metrics

– Bivariate and multivariate analyses