canadian wind forecast outlook executive summary
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Canadian Wind Energy Sector:
Market Forecast 2013-2020 - Q2, 2013 -
Prepared by ClearSky Advisors Inc. © ClearSky Advisors Inc. 22-Apr-2013
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
About This Report
Canada is a complex market for the wind industry. Each province and region has a diverse set of market
fundamentals, policies, and other market drivers that necessitate an in-depth analysis segmented out by
individual region.
This report contains a summary of wind market fundamentals for Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, British Columbia,
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and the Atlantic region. It also includes a comprehensive outline of policies, initiatives,
and key utilities that have informed a forward-looking market forecast for each region through 2020. This report
provides all necessary information for project developers, manufacturers, governments, and EPC firms eager to
find success for their organization within Canadian regional markets.
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. All Rights Reserved. Copying of or reproduction from this report in any form without prior permission is strictly
forbidden. The materials ClearSky Advisors Inc. provides to clients will reflect ClearSky Advisors’ judgment based upon the information
available to ClearSky Advisors. ClearSky Advisors disclaims any other representations or warranties, express or implied, including without
limitation any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. This report is based on sources
believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. ClearSky Advisors Inc.
shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained in this publication.
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
Executive Summary
Canada currently ranks ninth in global wind rankings with
6,500MW of installed capacity. Through the use of various
regional and provincial incentives as well as procurement
initiatives, the Canadian market is expected to grow to
between 14,000MW and 22,500MW by 2021. Growth in this
sector will be primarily driven by the Ontario market but will
also receive significant contribution from Quebec and Alberta.
The associated graph below provides cumulative installations
for two different scenarios: High Case and Low Case. The
associated charts provide a snapshot of regional contributions
to the 2021 Canadian wind sector for both scenarios. Refer to
the full report for a region by region breakdown of annual
installations and as well as the results for the Expected Case
scenario.
For the forecasted period, annual Canadian wind project installations will average at 1,400MW per year. This will
increase significantly between 2015 and 2017 with average installations reaching 2,500MW per year. Ontario will
continue to be the largest contributor to the Canadian wind sector throughout the forecasted period maintaining
a 33-34% share by 2021 while Alberta, currently in third place (by MW) has the potential to replace Quebec as the
second largest national market for wind.
On 34%
Qc 19%
Ab 23%
B.C. 10%
Mb 3%
Sk 4%
A.C. 7%
2021 - Canada Installed Wind Capacity (High Case)
On 33%
Qc 26%
Ab 23%
B.C. 7%
Mb 2%
Sk 2%
A.C. 7%
2021 - Canada Installed Wind Capacity (Low Case)
On 32%
Qc 25%
Ab 17% B.C.
6%
Mb 4%
Sk 3%
A.C. 13%
2013 - Canada Installed Wind Capacity
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
MW
Canada - Cumulative Wind Forecast
High Case Low Case
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
Table of Contents
About This Report .................................................................................................................................... 1
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. 2
Table of Contents ..................................................................................................................................... 3
List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................... 9
List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................... 11
1- Canada Wind Sector Overview ............................................................................................................. 13
Canada Wind Sector Forecast .................................................................................................................. 14
Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 14
High Case Scenario .................................................................................................................................... 15
Expected Case Scenario .............................................................................................................................. 15
Low Case Scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 16
2- Ontario Wind Sector ........................................................................................................................... 18
Market Synopsis......................................................................................................................................... 18
Market Overview .................................................................................................................................... 20
Wind Sector Overview ................................................................................................................................ 20
Wind Project Pipeline ................................................................................................................................. 21
Existing Wind Projects ................................................................................................................................ 22
Market Development .............................................................................................................................. 23
Ministry of the Environment - Renewable Energy Approval .......................................................................... 23
Ontario Power Authority - Feed-in Tariff Program ....................................................................................... 23
Market Forecast ..................................................................................................................................... 24
Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 24
High Case Scenario .................................................................................................................................... 25
Expected Case Scenario .............................................................................................................................. 26
Low Case Scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 27
Green Energy Moratorium Scenario ............................................................................................................ 28
Electricity Market Structure .................................................................................................................... 29
Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 29
User Mix .................................................................................................................................................... 30
Market Share ......................................................................................................................................... 31
FIT 2.1 .................................................................................................................................................... 33
Priority Points ............................................................................................................................................ 33
New Contracting Process and Program Set-asides ....................................................................................... 33
New Tariff Rate and Additional Price Incentives .......................................................................................... 34
Domestic Content Review Period ................................................................................................................ 35
Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure ........................................................................................... 35
Transmission .............................................................................................................................................. 35
Distribution ................................................................................................................................................ 36
Market Drivers and Restraints ................................................................................................................. 37
Drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 37
Restraints .................................................................................................................................................. 39
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
Recommendations ................................................................................................................................. 41
Manufacturers ........................................................................................................................................... 41
Developers ................................................................................................................................................. 42
EPCs .......................................................................................................................................................... 42
Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 43
3- Quebec Wind Sector ........................................................................................................................... 44
Market Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 44
Wind Sector Overview ................................................................................................................................ 44
Wind Project Pipeline ................................................................................................................................. 44
Existing Wind Projects ................................................................................................................................ 46
Market Forecast ..................................................................................................................................... 47
Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 47
High Case Scenario .................................................................................................................................... 48
Expected Case Scenario .............................................................................................................................. 48
Low Case Scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 49
Electricity Market Structure .................................................................................................................... 49
Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 50
User Mix .................................................................................................................................................... 50
Development of New Generation ............................................................................................................ 51
Demand Growth ........................................................................................................................................ 51
Upcoming Generation Projects ................................................................................................................... 51
Potential for Wind Development ................................................................................................................. 52
Regulatory Environment ......................................................................................................................... 53
Required Permits and Studies ..................................................................................................................... 53
Wind Project Development Process ............................................................................................................. 54
Provincial Renewable Energy Policy ........................................................................................................ 55
Self-generation Programs ........................................................................................................................... 55
Domestic Content Requirements ................................................................................................................. 55
Carbon Market ........................................................................................................................................... 56
Provincial Manufacturing Capacity .......................................................................................................... 56
Transmission and Connection Considerations .......................................................................................... 56
Transmission System Overview .................................................................................................................. 56
Transmission Upgrades .............................................................................................................................. 57
Transmission Interconnection ..................................................................................................................... 59
Distribution System Overview ..................................................................................................................... 59
Market Drivers and Restraints ................................................................................................................. 60
Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 60
Drivers ....................................................................................................................................................... 60
Restraints .................................................................................................................................................. 61
Recommendations ................................................................................................................................. 61
Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 62
4- Alberta Wind Sector............................................................................................................................ 63
Market Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 63
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
Addition of Wind to the Provincial Supply ................................................................................................... 63
Ownership of Projects and Sale of Electricity ............................................................................................... 63
Current Wind Project Pipeline ..................................................................................................................... 64
Market Forecast ..................................................................................................................................... 64
Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 64
High Case Scenario .................................................................................................................................... 66
Expected Case Scenario .............................................................................................................................. 66
Low Case Scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 67
Policy Framework ................................................................................................................................... 67
Key Organizations in Alberta’s Electricity Sector .......................................................................................... 67
Policy framework ....................................................................................................................................... 67
Application Process .................................................................................................................................... 69
Merchant Pricing .................................................................................................................................... 72
How the electricity pricing system works in Alberta ...................................................................................... 72
Grid Connection and Transmission .......................................................................................................... 76
The Current Status of Transmission in Alberta ............................................................................................. 76
Future Transmission Development .............................................................................................................. 76
Market Drivers and Restraints ................................................................................................................. 81
Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 81
Drivers ....................................................................................................................................................... 81
Restraints .................................................................................................................................................. 82
Recommendations ................................................................................................................................. 84
Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 85
Appendix ............................................................................................................................................... 86
5- British Columbia Wind Sector .............................................................................................................. 87
Market Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 87
Wind Project Pipeline ................................................................................................................................. 87
Existing Wind Projects ................................................................................................................................ 88
Market Forecast ..................................................................................................................................... 88
Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 88
High Case Scenario .................................................................................................................................... 89
Expected Case Scenario .............................................................................................................................. 90
Low Case Scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 91
Electricity Market Structure .................................................................................................................... 92
Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 92
User Mix .................................................................................................................................................... 92
Development of New Generation ............................................................................................................ 93
Demand Growth ........................................................................................................................................ 93
Potential for Wind Development ................................................................................................................. 94
Upcoming Generation Projects ................................................................................................................... 94
Regulatory Environment ......................................................................................................................... 95
Clean Energy Project Development ............................................................................................................. 95
Provincial Renewable Energy Policy ........................................................................................................ 99
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
Renewable Energy Generation Initiatives ............................................................................................... 99
Tax Incentives ........................................................................................................................................ 100
Carbon Market ....................................................................................................................................... 100
Transmission and Connection Considerations ......................................................................................... 100
Transmission Interconnection ................................................................................................................101
Transmission Upgrades ..........................................................................................................................101
Distribution System Overview and Generator Interconnection ................................................................... 102
Market Drivers and Restraints ................................................................................................................ 102
Summary ................................................................................................................................................103
Drivers .....................................................................................................................................................103
Restraints ................................................................................................................................................103
Recommendations ................................................................................................................................104
Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 105
6- Manitoba Wind Sector ...................................................................................................................... 106
Market Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 106
Upcoming Generation Projects ................................................................................................................. 106
Existing Wind Projects .............................................................................................................................. 106
Market Forecast .................................................................................................................................... 107
Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 107
High Case Scenario .................................................................................................................................. 108
Expected Case Scenario ............................................................................................................................ 108
Low Case Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 109
Electricity Market Structure .................................................................................................................. 109
Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 109
User Mix ...................................................................................................................................................110
Development of New Generation ........................................................................................................... 111
Demand Growth ....................................................................................................................................... 111
Upcoming Generation Projects .................................................................................................................. 111
Potential for Wind Development ................................................................................................................ 111
Regulatory Environment ........................................................................................................................ 112
Provincial Renewable Energy Policy ....................................................................................................... 113
Tax Incentives ........................................................................................................................................... 113
Carbon Market .......................................................................................................................................... 113
Transmission and Connection Considerations ......................................................................................... 114
Distributed Resource Interconnection ......................................................................................................... 114
Open Access Interconnection Tariff ............................................................................................................ 114
Transmission and Distribution Upgrades .................................................................................................... 115
7- Saskatchewan Wind Sector ................................................................................................................116
Market Overview .......................................................................................................................................116
Wind Project Pipeline ................................................................................................................................116
Existing Wind Projects ...............................................................................................................................116
Market Forecast .................................................................................................................................... 117
Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 117
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
High Case Scenario ...................................................................................................................................118
Expected Case Scenario .............................................................................................................................118
Low Case Scenario ....................................................................................................................................119
Electricity Market Structure ...................................................................................................................119
Overview ..................................................................................................................................................119
User Mix .................................................................................................................................................. 120
Development of New Generation ........................................................................................................... 121
Regulatory Environment ........................................................................................................................ 122
Provincial Renewable Energy Policy ....................................................................................................... 123
Green Options Partners Program ...............................................................................................................123
Small Power Producers Program ............................................................................................................... 124
Net Metering Program .............................................................................................................................. 124
Tax Incentives .......................................................................................................................................... 125
Carbon Market ......................................................................................................................................... 125
Transmission Considerations.................................................................................................................. 125
Transmission Interconnection ................................................................................................................... 125
Distribution Interconnection ..................................................................................................................... 126
Transmission and Distribution Upgrades .................................................................................................... 127
Market Drivers and Restraints - Manitoba and Saskatchewan .................................................................. 127
Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 127
Drivers ..................................................................................................................................................... 128
Restraints ................................................................................................................................................ 129
Recommendations - Manitoba and Saskatchewan .................................................................................. 130
Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 132
8- Atlantic Canada Wind Sector .............................................................................................................. 133
Market Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 133
Wind Project Pipeline ................................................................................................................................ 134
Current Wind Power Capacity .................................................................................................................... 135
Market Forecast ....................................................................................................................................138
Summary ..................................................................................................................................................138
High Case Scenario .................................................................................................................................. 140
Expected Case Scenario ............................................................................................................................. 141
Low Case Scenario ................................................................................................................................... 142
Electricity Market Structure ................................................................................................................... 143
Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 143
User Mix .................................................................................................................................................. 145
Development of New Generation .......................................................................................................... 146
Demand Growth ...................................................................................................................................... 146
Upcoming Generation Projects .................................................................................................................. 147
Potential for Wind Development ................................................................................................................ 147
Regulatory Environment ....................................................................................................................... 148
Required Permits and Studies ................................................................................................................... 148
Provincial Renewable Energy Policy ....................................................................................................... 150
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
Renewable Energy Targets ....................................................................................................................... 150
Renewable Energy Generation Initiatives .................................................................................................. 150
Self-generation Programs ......................................................................................................................... 152
Transmission Considerations.................................................................................................................. 152
Transmission System Overview ................................................................................................................ 152
Transmission Upgrades ............................................................................................................................. 153
Market Drivers and Restraints ................................................................................................................ 153
Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 153
Drivers ...................................................................................................................................................... 153
Restraints ................................................................................................................................................ 154
Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 154
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
List of Figures
Figure 1 - Global installed wind capacity - 2012 .................................................................................................... 13
Figure 2 - Canada installed wind capacity by region ............................................................................................. 13
Figure 3 - Canada cumulative wind forecast (2013-2021) ...................................................................................... 14
Figure 4 - Canadian wind market forecast (High Case) ......................................................................................... 15
Figure 5 - Canadian wind market forecast (Expected Case) .................................................................................. 15
Figure 6 - Canadian wind market forecast (Low Case) .......................................................................................... 16
Figure 7 - Canada 2021 Snapshot ......................................................................................................................... 16
Figure 8 - Ontario Ministry of the Environment - REA projects ............................................................................. 23
Figure 9 - Status of Ontario FIT program wind projects ........................................................................................ 23
Figure 10 - Ontario cumulative wind forecast (2013-2018) .................................................................................... 24
Figure 11 - Ontario wind market forecast (High Case) ........................................................................................... 25
Figure 12 - Ontario wind market forecast (Expected Case) ................................................................................... 26
Figure 13 - Ontario wind market forecast (Low Case) ........................................................................................... 27
Figure 14 - Ontario wind market forecast (Green Energy Moratorium) ................................................................. 28
Figure 15 - Ontario turbine brand and developer market share (2012 and 2013).................................................... 31
Figure 16 - Quebec wind project pipeline by turbine brand ................................................................................... 44
Figure 17 - Quebec wind projects by turbine brand ............................................................................................... 46
Figure 18 - Quebec’s historical wind farm installations ......................................................................................... 47
Figure 19 - Quebec cumulative wind forecast (2013-2021) .................................................................................... 47
Figure 20 - Quebec wind market forecast (High Case) .......................................................................................... 48
Figure 21 - Quebec wind market forecast (Expected Case) ................................................................................... 48
Figure 22 - Quebec wind market forecast (Low Case) ........................................................................................... 49
Figure 23 - Hydro-Quebec operating divisions ...................................................................................................... 49
Figure 24 - Quebec total installed generation capacity ......................................................................................... 50
Figure 25 - Quebec historical electricity sales ....................................................................................................... 50
Figure 26 - Quebec historical peak provincial demand .......................................................................................... 51
Figure 27 - Quebec wind project development process ......................................................................................... 54
Figure 28 - Quebec manufacturing capacity ......................................................................................................... 56
Figure 29 - Quebec transmission interconnection studies..................................................................................... 59
Figure 30 - Alberta historical generation capacity additions ................................................................................. 63
Figure 31 - Alberta wind farm ownership .............................................................................................................. 64
Figure 32 - Alberta wind project pipeline .............................................................................................................. 64
Figure 33 - Alberta cumulative wind forecast (2013-2021) ..................................................................................... 65
Figure 34 - Alberta wind market forecast (High Case) ........................................................................................... 66
Figure 35 - Alberta wind market forecast (Expected Case) .................................................................................... 66
Figure 36 - Alberta wind market forecast (Low Case) ............................................................................................ 67
Figure 37 - Alberta’s Power Pool ............................................................................................................................ 73
Figure 38 - Alberta historical average pool price .................................................................................................... 73
Figure 39 - Alberta historical monthly residential electricity rates......................................................................... 75
Figure 40 - Historical Alberta average wind capacity factors ................................................................................. 86
Figure 41 - British Columbia upcoming projects ................................................................................................... 87
Figure 42 - British Columbia wind capacity by turbine .......................................................................................... 88
Figure 43 - British Columbia cumulative wind forecast (2013-2021) ...................................................................... 88
Figure 44 - British Columbia wind market forecast (High Case) ............................................................................ 89
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
Figure 45 - British Columbia wind market forecast (Expected Case) ..................................................................... 90
Figure 46 - British Columbia wind market forecast (Low Case) ............................................................................. 91
Figure 47 - British Columbia installed generating capacity .................................................................................... 92
Figure 48 - British Columbia historical electricity sales ......................................................................................... 93
Figure 49 - British Columbia historical peak demand ............................................................................................ 93
Figure 50 - British Columbia clean energy project development process .............................................................. 95
Figure 51 - British Columbia Crown land application process ................................................................................ 97
Figure 52 - British Columbia standing offer program ............................................................................................ 99
Figure 53 - British Columbia standing offer program application process.............................................................. 99
Figure 54 - British Columbia’s CEAP and SGIP process outline .............................................................................101
Figure 55 - BC Hydro interconnection ................................................................................................................. 102
Figure 56 - Manitoba cumulative wind forecast (2013-2021) ................................................................................ 107
Figure 57 - Manitoba wind market forecast (High Case) ...................................................................................... 108
Figure 58 - Manitoba wind market forecast (Expected Case) .............................................................................. 108
Figure 59 - Manitoba wind market forecast (Low Case) ...................................................................................... 109
Figure 60 - Manitoba electricity sector statistics ..................................................................................................110
Figure 61 - Manitoba electricity user mix .............................................................................................................110
Figure 62 - Manitoba distributed resource interconnection process ....................................................................114
Figure 63 - Manitoba transmission interconnection process ................................................................................ 115
Figure 64 - Saskatchewan cumulative wind forecast (2013-2021) ........................................................................ 117
Figure 65 - Saskatchewan wind market forecast (High Case) ...............................................................................118
Figure 66 - Saskatchewan wind market forecast (Expected Case) .......................................................................118
Figure 67 - Saskatchewan wind market forecast (Low Case) ................................................................................119
Figure 68 - Saskatchewan generating capacity ....................................................................................................119
Figure 69 - Saskatchewan generating capacity and operating statistics ............................................................. 120
Figure 70 - Saskatchewan average annual energy deliveries ............................................................................... 120
Figure 71 - Saskatchewan electricity system operating statistics ......................................................................... 121
Figure 72 - Saskatchewan generation action plan ................................................................................................ 121
Figure 73 - Saskatchewan environmental assessment process ............................................................................ 122
Figure 74 - Saskatchewan Green Options Partners program ............................................................................... 124
Figure 75 - Saskatchewan carbon market ........................................................................................................... 125
Figure 76 - Saskatchewan transmission interconnection .................................................................................... 126
Figure 77 - Saskatchewan distribution interconnection ....................................................................................... 126
Figure 78 - Atlantic Canada wind project pipeline ................................................................................................134
Figure 79 - Atlantic Canada installed wind capacity ............................................................................................. 135
Figure 80 - Atlantic Canada cumulative wind forecast (2013-2020) ......................................................................138
Figure 81 - Atlantic Canada cumulative wind forecast by province (High, Expected, and Low Case) ................... 139
Figure 82 - Atlantic Canada wind market forecast (High Case) ........................................................................... 140
Figure 83 - Atlantic Canada wind market forecast (Expected Case) .....................................................................141
Figure 84 - Atlantic Canada wind market forecast (Low Case) ............................................................................ 142
Figure 85 - Atlantic Canada installed generating capacity ...................................................................................143
Figure 86 - Provincial installed generating capacity ............................................................................................ 144
Figure 87 - Prince Edward Island electricity generation by source ....................................................................... 144
Figure 88 - New Brunswick electricity sales ........................................................................................................ 145
Figure 89 - Newfoundland and Labrador electricity sales ................................................................................... 145
Figure 90 - Nova Scotia electricity sales ............................................................................................................. 145
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
Figure 91 - Prince Edward Island electricity sales ................................................................................................ 146
Figure 92 - Atlantic Canada historical peak demand ........................................................................................... 146
Figure 93 - Atlantic Canada transmission system overview ................................................................................. 152
List of Tables
Table 1 - Ontario - Upcoming Wind Turbine Manufacturing Facilities ................................................................... 19
Table 2 - Ontario - Wind Project Pipeline .............................................................................................................. 21
Table 3 - Ontario - Existing Wind Projects ............................................................................................................ 22
Table 4 - Ontario FIT Priority Points Table ............................................................................................................ 33
Table 5 - Ontario - Transmission Infrastructure Upgrades .................................................................................... 35
Table 6 - Ontario - Market Drivers and Restraints .................................................................................................. 37
Table 7 - Quebec - Wind Project Pipeline .............................................................................................................. 45
Table 8 - Quebec - Existing Wind Projects ............................................................................................................ 46
Table 9 - Quebec - Upgrades to Existing Generation Infrastructure ...................................................................... 51
Table 10 - Quebec - New Generation Projects ...................................................................................................... 52
Table 11 - Quebec - Municipal Permitting ............................................................................................................. 53
Table 12 - Quebec - Provincial Permitting ............................................................................................................ 53
Table 13 - Quebec - Federal Permitting ................................................................................................................ 53
Table 14 - Quebec - Self-generation Programs ..................................................................................................... 55
Table 15 - Quebec - Domestic Content Requirements .......................................................................................... 55
Table 16 - Quebec - Transmission Lines................................................................................................................ 56
Table 17 - Quebec - Transmission Upgrades (under construction) ........................................................................ 57
Table 18 - Quebec - Wind Integration Transmission Upgrades ............................................................................. 57
Table 19 - Quebec - New Transmission Facilities (upgrades under study) ............................................................. 58
Table 20 - Quebec - Distribution Lines ................................................................................................................. 59
Table 21 - Quebec - Market Drivers and Restraints ............................................................................................... 60
Table 22 - Alberta - AESO Connection Process ..................................................................................................... 70
Table 23 - Alberta - Regulated Service Providers .................................................................................................. 74
Table 24 - Alberta - Competitive Retailers ............................................................................................................ 74
Table 25 - Alberta - Northwest Region Transmission Projects ............................................................................... 77
Table 26 - Alberta - Northeast Region Transmission Projects ............................................................................... 78
Table 27 - Alberta - Edmonton Region Transmission Projects ............................................................................... 79
Table 28 - Alberta - Central Region Transmission Projects ................................................................................... 79
Table 29 - Alberta - South Region Transmission Projects ..................................................................................... 80
Table 30 - Alberta - Market Drivers and Restraints ............................................................................................... 81
Table 31 - Alberta - Wind Generation Statistics .................................................................................................... 86
Table 32 - British Columbia - Wind Project Pipeline .............................................................................................. 87
Table 33 - British Columbia - Existing Wind Projects ............................................................................................. 88
Table 34 - British Columbia - Upgrades to Existing Generation Infrastructure ....................................................... 94
Table 35 - British Columbia - Provincial Permitting ............................................................................................... 96
Table 36 - British Columbia - Environmental Assessment Process ........................................................................ 98
Table 37 - British Columbia - Generation Program Summary ................................................................................ 99
Table 38 - British Columbia - Tax Incentives ....................................................................................................... 100
Table 39 - British Columbia - Transmission Upgrades ......................................................................................... 102
© 2013 ClearSky Advisors Inc. – Canadian Wind Energy Sector: Market Forecast – Published: 22-Apr-2013
Table 40 - British Columbia - Market Drivers and Restraints ................................................................................103
Table 41 - Manitoba - Existing Wind Projects....................................................................................................... 107
Table 42 - Manitoba - Upcoming Generation Projects ......................................................................................... 111
Table 43 - Manitoba - Classification of Energy Projects ....................................................................................... 112
Table 44 - Manitoba - Provincial and Municipal Permitting .................................................................................. 112
Table 45 - Manitoba - Tax Incentives ................................................................................................................... 113
Table 46 - Manitoba - Distributed Interconnections ............................................................................................114
Table 47 - Manitoba - Transmission and Distribution Upgrades ........................................................................... 115
Table 48 - Saskatchewan - Wind Project Pipeline ................................................................................................116
Table 49 - Saskatchewan - Existing Wind Projects ............................................................................................... 117
Table 50 - Saskatchewan - Self-generation Programs .........................................................................................123
Table 51 - Saskatchewan - Tax Incentives ........................................................................................................... 125
Table 52 - Saskatchewan - Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure Upgrades ............................................. 127
Table 53 - Manitoba and Saskatchewan - Market Drivers and Restraints (Manitoba) .......................................... 127
Table 54 - Manitoba and Saskatchewan - Market Drivers and Restraints (Saskatchewan) .................................. 128
Table 55 - Manitoba and Saskatchewan - Market Drivers and Restraints (joint) .................................................. 128
Table 56 - Atlantic Canada - Wind Project Pipeline (New Brunswick) ...................................................................134
Table 57 - Atlantic Canada - Wind Project Pipeline (Nova Scotia) ........................................................................134
Table 58 - Atlantic Canada - Wind Project Pipeline (Prince Edward Island) .......................................................... 135
Table 59 - Atlantic Canada - Existing Wind Projects (New Brunswick) ................................................................. 135
Table 60 - Atlantic Canada - Existing Wind Projects (Nova Scotia) ...................................................................... 136
Table 61 - Atlantic Canada - Existing Wind Projects (Newfoundland and Labrador) ............................................. 137
Table 62 - Atlantic Canada - Existing Wind Projects (Prince Edward Island) ......................................................... 137
Table 63 - Atlantic Canada - Provincial Utilities ...................................................................................................143
Table 64 - Atlantic Canada - Upcoming Generation Projects ............................................................................... 147
Table 65 - Atlantic Canada - Provincial Permitting (Nova Scotia) ........................................................................ 148
Table 66 - Atlantic Canada - Provincial Permitting (New Brunswick), ................................................................. 149
Table 67 - Atlantic Canada - Provincial Permitting (Prince Edward Island) .......................................................... 149
Table 68 - Atlantic Canada - Renewable Energy Targets .................................................................................... 150
Table 69 - Atlantic Canada - Renewable Energy Generation Initiatives ............................................................... 150
Table 70 - Atlantic Canada - Self-generation Programs ...................................................................................... 152
Table 71 - Atlantic Canada - Transmission Infrastructure Upgrades ..................................................................... 153
Table 72 - Atlantic Canada - Market Drivers and Restraints ................................................................................. 153
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to us. We disclaim any other representations or warranties, express or implied or statutory, including without limitation
any implied warranties of merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose.
This agreement shall be interpreted according to the laws of the Province of Ontario, exclusive of its principles of
conflicts of law. All lawsuits and other proceedings relating to this Agreement or ClearSky Advisors’ services shall be
brought in the courts in the Province of Ontario. If you are using a purchase order to acquire ClearSky Advisors’
research, both parties agree that the terms of these General Provisions shall govern and that any terms in the Purchase
Order shall not apply. This Agreement represents the entire agreement between you and us related to the subject
matter hereof and superseded and prior or contemporaneous communications.