capturing the impact of demographic processes on social
TRANSCRIPT
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Capturing the impact of demographicprocesses on social stratification in education
in Germany
Maarten L. Buis
Institut für SoziologieEberhard Karls Universität Tü[email protected]
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Outline
Introduction
Preliminary analysis
Combining information using simulation
Conclusion and discussion
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Inequality of Educational Opportunity versusReproduction of Educational Categories
I Inequality of Educational Opportunity use a sample of theoffspring, while reproduction must use a sample parents
I Reproduction includes indirect effects throughdemographic processes:
I Inequality of Educational Opportunity → How close is acountry to the meritocratic model?
I Reproduction of Educational categories → What are thelong term processes that shape the structure of society?
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Inequality of Educational Opportunity versusReproduction of Educational Categories
I Inequality of Educational Opportunity use a sample of theoffspring, while reproduction must use a sample parents
I Reproduction includes indirect effects throughdemographic processes:
I Inequality of Educational Opportunity → How close is acountry to the meritocratic model?
I Reproduction of Educational categories → What are thelong term processes that shape the structure of society?
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Inequality of Educational Opportunity versusReproduction of Educational Categories
I Inequality of Educational Opportunity use a sample of theoffspring, while reproduction must use a sample parents
I Reproduction includes indirect effects throughdemographic processes:
I Inequality of Educational Opportunity → How close is acountry to the meritocratic model?
I Reproduction of Educational categories → What are thelong term processes that shape the structure of society?
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Inequality of Educational Opportunity versusReproduction of Educational Categories
I Inequality of Educational Opportunity use a sample of theoffspring, while reproduction must use a sample parents
I Reproduction includes indirect effects throughdemographic processes:
I Inequality of Educational Opportunity → How close is acountry to the meritocratic model?
I Reproduction of Educational categories → What are thelong term processes that shape the structure of society?
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Reproduction of educational categories anddemographic processes
mother’seducation
Offspring’seducation
father’seducation
# siblings
+
− −
+ +
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Challenges
I Estimation requires a sample of mothers who havechildren who finished their education.
I This is not a common design.I The most recent cohort that can be studied was born
approx. 60 years ago.I Alternative is to reconstruct such a dataset using
simulation:I It is possible to use a wider range of datasources.I Extrapolation to more recent cohorts is natural within this
framework.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Challenges
I Estimation requires a sample of mothers who havechildren who finished their education.
I This is not a common design.
I The most recent cohort that can be studied was bornapprox. 60 years ago.
I Alternative is to reconstruct such a dataset usingsimulation:
I It is possible to use a wider range of datasources.I Extrapolation to more recent cohorts is natural within this
framework.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Challenges
I Estimation requires a sample of mothers who havechildren who finished their education.
I This is not a common design.I The most recent cohort that can be studied was born
approx. 60 years ago.
I Alternative is to reconstruct such a dataset usingsimulation:
I It is possible to use a wider range of datasources.I Extrapolation to more recent cohorts is natural within this
framework.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Challenges
I Estimation requires a sample of mothers who havechildren who finished their education.
I This is not a common design.I The most recent cohort that can be studied was born
approx. 60 years ago.I Alternative is to reconstruct such a dataset using
simulation:
I It is possible to use a wider range of datasources.I Extrapolation to more recent cohorts is natural within this
framework.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Challenges
I Estimation requires a sample of mothers who havechildren who finished their education.
I This is not a common design.I The most recent cohort that can be studied was born
approx. 60 years ago.I Alternative is to reconstruct such a dataset using
simulation:I It is possible to use a wider range of datasources.
I Extrapolation to more recent cohorts is natural within thisframework.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Challenges
I Estimation requires a sample of mothers who havechildren who finished their education.
I This is not a common design.I The most recent cohort that can be studied was born
approx. 60 years ago.I Alternative is to reconstruct such a dataset using
simulation:I It is possible to use a wider range of datasources.I Extrapolation to more recent cohorts is natural within this
framework.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Outline
Introduction
Preliminary analysis
Combining information using simulation
Conclusion and discussion
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Mother’s education → Father’s education
mother’seducation
Offspring’seducation
father’seducation
# siblings
+
− −
+ +
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Mother’s education → Father’s education
Data & MethodsI Collected as part of the program “Sociology and the Study
of the Life Course”.I Cohorts born in 1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960 1964
1971I 4,231 observations (350 – 850 observations per cohort)I retrospective reconstruction of the life course.I Ordered logit of Father’s education on Mother’s education,
year of birth of the mother, and interaction betweenmother’s education and year of birth.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Mother’s education → Father’s education
2
5
10
20
40
80
odds
rat
io
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
year of birth
women’s educationmedium versus lowerhigher versus lower
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Father’s education → Offspring’s education
mother’seducation
Offspring’seducation
father’seducation
# siblings
+
− −
+ +
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Father’s education → Offspring’s education
Data & MethodsI Life History Study and ALLBUS 2006 and 2008I ALLBUS is a general survey, approx. 2,000 observations
per surveyI Not a sample of mothers but a sample for offspring.I Ordered logit of Offspring’s education on Father’s and
Mother’s education, number of siblings, offsrping’s year ofbirth.
I Interactions of year of birth with Father’s and mother’seducation and number of siblings.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Father’s education → Offspring’s education
1
2
5
10
odds
rat
io
1920 1940 1960 1980
year of birth
father’s educationmedium versus lowerhigher versus lower
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Mother’s education → Offspring’s education
mother’seducation
Offspring’seducation
father’seducation
# siblings
+
− −
+ +
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Mother’s education → Offspring’s education
1
2
5
10
odds
rat
io
1920 1940 1960 1980
year of birth
mothers’s educationmedium versus lowerhigher versus lower
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Mother’s education → Fertility
mother’seducation
Offspring’seducation
father’seducation
# siblings
+
− −
+ +
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Mother’s education → Fertility
Data & MethodsI Life history StudyI Discrete time event history modelI predicted hazards are calibrated using register data
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Mother’s education → Fertility
.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
fert
ility
rat
e
1920 1940 1960 1980
year of birth
educationlowermiddlehigher
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Number of siblings → Offspring’s education
mother’seducation
Offspring’seducation
father’seducation
# siblings
+
− −
+ +
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Number of siblings → Offspring’s education
Data & MethodsI Life history study and ALLBUSI number of siblings in ALLBUS are imputed
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Number of siblings → Offspring’s education
.75
1
1.5
odds
rat
io
1920 1940 1960 1980
year of birth
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Outline
Introduction
Preliminary analysis
Combining information using simulation
Conclusion and discussion
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Simulation
I Start with 5,000 women each in cohorts 1920 1930 19401950 1955 1960.
I Assign them an educationI Assign them children given their cohort and educationI Assign them a partner (or not) with a level of educationI Assign an education to the offspring given Mother’s and
Father’s education, year of birth, and number of siblings.I Analyze the simulated datasetI One can study the impact of differential fertility and
homogamy by creating counterfactual scenarios wherethese don’t exist.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Simulation
I Start with 5,000 women each in cohorts 1920 1930 19401950 1955 1960.
I Assign them an education
I Assign them children given their cohort and educationI Assign them a partner (or not) with a level of educationI Assign an education to the offspring given Mother’s and
Father’s education, year of birth, and number of siblings.I Analyze the simulated datasetI One can study the impact of differential fertility and
homogamy by creating counterfactual scenarios wherethese don’t exist.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Simulation
I Start with 5,000 women each in cohorts 1920 1930 19401950 1955 1960.
I Assign them an educationI Assign them children given their cohort and education
I Assign them a partner (or not) with a level of educationI Assign an education to the offspring given Mother’s and
Father’s education, year of birth, and number of siblings.I Analyze the simulated datasetI One can study the impact of differential fertility and
homogamy by creating counterfactual scenarios wherethese don’t exist.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Simulation
I Start with 5,000 women each in cohorts 1920 1930 19401950 1955 1960.
I Assign them an educationI Assign them children given their cohort and educationI Assign them a partner (or not) with a level of education
I Assign an education to the offspring given Mother’s andFather’s education, year of birth, and number of siblings.
I Analyze the simulated datasetI One can study the impact of differential fertility and
homogamy by creating counterfactual scenarios wherethese don’t exist.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Simulation
I Start with 5,000 women each in cohorts 1920 1930 19401950 1955 1960.
I Assign them an educationI Assign them children given their cohort and educationI Assign them a partner (or not) with a level of educationI Assign an education to the offspring given Mother’s and
Father’s education, year of birth, and number of siblings.
I Analyze the simulated datasetI One can study the impact of differential fertility and
homogamy by creating counterfactual scenarios wherethese don’t exist.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Simulation
I Start with 5,000 women each in cohorts 1920 1930 19401950 1955 1960.
I Assign them an educationI Assign them children given their cohort and educationI Assign them a partner (or not) with a level of educationI Assign an education to the offspring given Mother’s and
Father’s education, year of birth, and number of siblings.I Analyze the simulated dataset
I One can study the impact of differential fertility andhomogamy by creating counterfactual scenarios wherethese don’t exist.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Simulation
I Start with 5,000 women each in cohorts 1920 1930 19401950 1955 1960.
I Assign them an educationI Assign them children given their cohort and educationI Assign them a partner (or not) with a level of educationI Assign an education to the offspring given Mother’s and
Father’s education, year of birth, and number of siblings.I Analyze the simulated datasetI One can study the impact of differential fertility and
homogamy by creating counterfactual scenarios wherethese don’t exist.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Resutls
5
10
20
40
80
odds
rat
io
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
year of birth of the mother
differential fertilityand homogamyno differential fertilityno homogamyno differential fertilityand no homogamy
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Outline
Introduction
Preliminary analysis
Combining information using simulation
Conclusion and discussion
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Conclusion
I Indication for a substantial indirect effect of mother’seducation on the offspring’s education through the Father’seducation.
I Evidence for an indirect effect through the number ofsiblings is mixed.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
Conclusion
I Indication for a substantial indirect effect of mother’seducation on the offspring’s education through the Father’seducation.
I Evidence for an indirect effect through the number ofsiblings is mixed.
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
What’s next?
I Confidence building in the simulation
I Comparison with empirically observed cohortsI Add more dataI Quality control (certification and verification scripts)
I historical trends rather than counterfactual scenariosI international comparison
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
What’s next?
I Confidence building in the simulationI Comparison with empirically observed cohorts
I Add more dataI Quality control (certification and verification scripts)
I historical trends rather than counterfactual scenariosI international comparison
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
What’s next?
I Confidence building in the simulationI Comparison with empirically observed cohortsI Add more data
I Quality control (certification and verification scripts)I historical trends rather than counterfactual scenariosI international comparison
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
What’s next?
I Confidence building in the simulationI Comparison with empirically observed cohortsI Add more dataI Quality control (certification and verification scripts)
I historical trends rather than counterfactual scenariosI international comparison
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
What’s next?
I Confidence building in the simulationI Comparison with empirically observed cohortsI Add more dataI Quality control (certification and verification scripts)
I historical trends rather than counterfactual scenarios
I international comparison
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany
IntroductionPreliminary analysis
Combining information using simulationConclusion and discussion
What’s next?
I Confidence building in the simulationI Comparison with empirically observed cohortsI Add more dataI Quality control (certification and verification scripts)
I historical trends rather than counterfactual scenariosI international comparison
Maarten L. Buis Capturing the impact of demographic processes on social stratification in education in Germany