carbon capture and storage: what does integrated assessment modelling analysis tell us? dr vaibhav...
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Carbon Capture and Storage: What Does Integrated Assessment Modelling Analysis Tell Us?
Dr Vaibhav ChaturvediResearch FellowCouncil on Energy, Environment and Water
Climate Day: Negotiating the Climate Cliff: India’s Climate Policy and INDCsNew Delhi, 03 Feb 2015
© Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015
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CEEW: addressing global challenges through an integrated approach
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CCS in Electricity in 2050 across models (striped bars)
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Source: Clarke L, Krey V, Weyant J, and Chaturvedi V. 2012. Regional energy system variations in global models: Results from Asian modelling exercise. Energy Economics 34 (3), S293-S305
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Scenarios for policy analysis
• Reference scenario
• A two degree scenario with all technologies
• A no CCS scenario
• GCAM can analyze permutations of energy technology and climate policy scenarios
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Modelling Framework: Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)
• Economy-Energy-Agriculture Market Equilibrium (Edmonds et al., 2004)
• 14 Global Regions Fully Integrated
• Explicit Representation of Energy Technologies
• Tracks 15 greenhouse gases
• Dynamic-recursive model
• Typically runs to 2095 in 5-year time steps
• Used extensively for energy and climate policy analyses conducted for DOE, EPA, IPCC, etc. (Clarke et al., 2007)
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Business As Usual Scenario
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• Coal, nuclear, biomass, and solar important in India’s energy mix
• Globally, natural gas to have highest share, followed by coal
• CCS will have no penetration unless there is a carbon price
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2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
EJ
Electricity Generation Mix- IndiaSolar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass_CCS
Biomass
Oil_CCS
Oil
Gas_CCS
Gas
Coal_CCS
Coal
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2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
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Electricity Generation Mix- GlobalSolar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass_CCS
Biomass
Oil_CCS
Oil
Gas_CCS
Gas
Coal_CCS
Coal
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What happens under a ‘Two Degree’ climate scenario?
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• Nuclear energy (33%), solar energy (34%) and CCS (25%) become critical for India
• Globally it is CCS, followed by nuclear, wind and solar energy
• Global share of CCS in electricity increases from 2% in 2030 to 16% in 2040. Corresponding CO2 price is 44US$/tCO2 in 2030and 72 US$/tCO2 in 2040
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Indian Electricity Generation MixSolarWindHydroNuclearBiomass_CCSBiomassOil_CCSOilGas_CCSGasCoal_CCSCoal
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2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095EJ
Electricity Generation Mix- GlobalSolar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass_CCS
Biomass
Oil_CCS
Oil
Gas_CCS
Gas
Coal_CCS
Coal
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• Non availability of CCS means that global emission peaking year has to shift early
• Cost of mitigation and carbon price increases dramatically
• Absence of CCS increases cost by over 3% of GDP in 2095, if India wants to act to meet a 2 degree target
What happens if CCS technology is not commercialized under a ‘Two Degree’ climate scenario?
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MTC
Global Emissions in Two Degree Scenario: WIth and Without CCS
2Degree
2Degree_NoCCS
Ref Sc
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US$/
tCO2
Global carbon price
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2Degree_NoCCS
BAU
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First order estimates of geological storage potential of CCS in GCAM (in GtCO2)
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Coal
BasinsDepleted Oil
PlaysGas
BasinsDeep Saline
Formation On-shoreDeep Saline Formation
Off-shore TotalUSA 59 107 1161 491 1819Canada 1 14 38 53Western Europe 0 22 36 43 101Japan 3 41 66 110Australia 12 265 152 429Former Soviet Union 16 256 272China 9 4 4 1716 584 2316Middle East 53 169 222Africa 3 9 78 90Latin America 7.575 45 1562 1614Southeast Asia 3.75 33 37Eastern Europe 1 2 13 15Korea India 0 1 14 43 41 100Total Global Capacity 70 247 530 4,952 1,379 7,178
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Key Discussion Issues
• When does CCS come in as a big sink for carbon globally?: Only beyond 2030, when technology cost declines and carbon price increases
• Shift in peak emissions: When no CCS, higher mitigation to be done in the near term
• BioCCS?: Global versus domestic potential of bioenergy
• KEY CONCLUSION: NO TECHNOLOGY SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE MITIGATION PORTFOLIO FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF COST EFFECTIVENESS!
• STORAGE POTENTIAL AND COST CURVES NEEDED FROM INDIA. CCS READY PLANTS IMPORTANT.
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http://ceew.in