carl benedikt frey. tecnología, habilidades y empleabilidad. 50º congreso internacional aedipe
TRANSCRIPT
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The Future of Work: Is This Time Different?
Carl Benedikt Frey
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Emperor Vespasian (69 AD)
“How will it be possible to feed the populace?
Queen Elizabeth I (1589)
“Thou aimest high, Master Lee. Consider thou what the invention could do to my poor subjects. It would assuredly bring to them ruin by depriving them of employment, thus making them beggars”
Bill Gates (2014)
"Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses […] it's progressing […] Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set.”
The future of work: an old concern
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The declining cost of computers
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Is this time different?U.S. Civilian Labour Force Participation Rate
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Job polarization and wage disparities
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The end of industrialization?
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The expanding comparative advantage of computers
"The human computer is supposed to be following fixed rules; he has no authority to deviate from them in any detail." (Turing, 1950)
Human computers performing mathematical calculations
Electronic computers performing routine tasks:
• Calculation• Repetitive customer
service • Picking or sorting• Repetitive assembly
Machine learning algorithms performing non-routine tasks:
• Medical diagnostics• Document review • Translation• Driving
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Computer technologies offer workers free from human heuristics and biases
Morning snack Lunch
Israeli judges are significantly more lenient after a food break (Danziger et al 2011).
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Will automation cause a jobless future?“I believe in the horse. Automobiles are a passing phenomenon.” - Kaiser Wilhelm II
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Where will human workers still hold the comparative advantage?
Social intelligenceCreativity
Perception and manipulation
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USA
Source: Frey & Osborne (2013)
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Source: Frey & Osborne (2013)
Who gains from technological progress?Low skill jobs are relatively exposed
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Who gains from technological progress?The growing gap between productivity and pay
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USA 19 Industrial Economies
Who gains from technological progress?The falling labour share of income
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Who gains from technological progress?The growing regional divide
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Who gains from technological progress?
0.5 % of the US workforce is employed in new industries created in the 21st century
Detailed industry (examples)
% of US Employment
% with college degree
Avg. Wages ($)
Internet publishing and broadcasting
0.06 69.6 81,138
Electronic shopping 0.08 49.7 45,372
Data processing, hosting, and related services
0.08 48.0 64,729
Electronic auctions 0.01 52.2 47,257
Source: Berger & Frey (2015)
New jobs, but only for the highly skilled
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Jobs of the Future?
Source: LinkedIn
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Source: LinkedIn
Jobs of the Future?
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