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Climate Change Adaption
Bibhuti Bhusan Gadanayak DRR & CCA Specialist
NDMA-UNDP, The Republic of Gambia
55, Kairaba Avenue, Banjul, The Gambia
Email:[email protected]
What is CC • Climate Change means significant difference in weather pattern over an
extended period of time
• Scientific consensus links current climate change primarily;
• emissions of carbon dioxide and other
• greenhouse gases from human activity, such as;
• the burning of fossil fuels,
• loss of forests and unsustainable production and
• consumption in the industrialized world
The effects include higher global temperatures,
• an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and
• related natural disasters,
• severe impacts to the sustainability of ecosystems.
Definitions of CC 1. Defining climate change For most people, the expression “climate change” means the alteration of the world’s climate that we humans are causing, through fossil fuel burning, clearing forests and other practices that increase the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere.
2. Definition by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that climate change is the change that can be attributed “directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”.
3. IPCC defines “climate change” as “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified ... by changes in the mean and / or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer”.
Weather and climate
• Weather is the set of meteorological conditions – wind, rain, snow, sunshine, temperature, etc. – at a particular time and place.
• “climate” describes the overall long-term characteristics of the weather experienced at a place.
• Ex. Singapore, in the tropics, has a hot wet climate, while continental Mongolia always has cold winters.
• The climate therefore can be thought of as a long-term summary of weather conditions, taking account of the average conditions as well as the variability of these conditions. The fluctuations that occur from year to year, and the statistics of extreme conditions such as severe storms or unusually hot seasons, are part of the climatic variability.
Major projections of CC The IPCC has examined the published results from many different models and on the basis of the evidence has estimated that by 2100
• The global average surface warming (surface air temperature change), will increase by 1.1 - 6.4 °C.
• The sea level will rise between 18 and 59 cm.•
• The oceans will become more acidic.
• It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.
• It is very likely that there will be more precipitation at higher latitudes and it is likely that there will be less precipitation in most subtropical land areas.
• It is likely that tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with on-going increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.
Issue Impacts of Climate Change
Natural resources:
food, water, fuel & land
• Drought and/or flooding from temperature changes and erratic weather
• Decreased soil fertility
• Decreased crop yields or crop failure
• Resource scarcity
• Shortage of clean, potable water
Natural disasters
• Warming oceans
• Changing weather patterns/seasons
• Erratic and more intense weather events
Health
• Increase in infectious, water-borne or vector-borne diseases, e.g., malaria, due to increased temperatures
and intensified storms
• Heat-related illness
• Malnutrition
• Increased air pollution, allergies and asthma
• Mental disorders such as anxiety and depression
Urbanization
• Rural-to-urban migration increases due to environmental degradation, reduced productivity and conflict
over resources
• Informal shelters and communities expand
Migration &
displacement
• Disaster events can lead to displacement,19 temporary and permanent, internal and international
• Environmental degradation and competition for resources prompts women and men to move
• Forced migration due to regional vulnerability possible
H/H composition • Loss of/change in family composition due to migration/displacement and/or fatalities from natural disasters
Conflict & violence
• Competition over limited resources can trigger conflict or displacement
• Shortages in regular rainfall and overall scarcity of natural resources can increase civil war by 50 per cent
• Increased anxiety and distress over livelihood insecurity
Impact of CC
Source: Climate Change, Connections, UNFPA
Alaska's Columbia Glacier recedes rapidly
One of the most dramatic ways we're transforming the planet is through global warming. And a great place to see its effects is
through the melting of glaciers and ice sheets around the world.
The images above show the Columbia Glacier in Alaska, which flows directly into the sea. The glacier had stayed more or
less fixed in place between its discovery in 1794 and 1980, but then suddenly began shrinking. Between 1986 and 2014, its
nose had retreated 12 miles north, making it one of the fastest-receding glaciers in the world.
Alaska's Columbia Glacier, seen on July 28, 1986 and July 2, 2014. (NASA, Images of Change)
Source: http://www.vox.com/2015/4/7/8352381/anthropocene-NASA-images
1986
2014
How climate change will affect key sectors It will affect the major sectors like; Water, Food, Industry, settlement and society, Health
Water: Drought-affected areas will likely become more widely distributed. Heavier precipitation events are very likely to increase in frequency leading to higher flood risks.
Food: While some mid-latitude and high-latitude areas will initially benefit from higher agricultural production, for many others at lower latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions, the increases in temperature and the frequency of droughts and floods are likely to affect crop production negatively, which could increase the number of people at risk from hunger and increased levels of displacement and migration.
Industry, settlement and society: The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those located in coastal areas and river flood plains, and those whose economies are closely linked with climate sensitive resources. This applies particularly to locations already prone to extreme weather events, and especially areas undergoing rapid urbanization. Where extreme weather events become more intense or more frequent, the economic and social costs of those events will increase.
Health: The projected changes in climate are likely to alter the health status of millions of people, including through increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts. Increased malnutrition, diarrhoeal disease and malaria in some areas will increase vulnerability to extreme public health and development goals will be threatened by longer term damage to health systems from disasters
Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0670e/i0670e03.htm
CC impacts on West and
Central Africa
• Impact on crop
• Possible agricultural losses from 2-4%
• Population living in coastal area would be affected by projected rise in sea level and flood
• Changes in coastal environment (mangroves and coastal degradation) could have –ve impacts on fisheries and tourism
Climate change impacts on Africa
How climate change will affect the different regions of the world
Climate change will affect all countries, but people in the poorest countries and poor people in richer countries are more likely to suffer the most.
• low adaptive capacities, arising from endemic poverty,
• weak institutions, and complex disasters and associated conflicts
• drought will continue to be a primary concern for many African populations.
• by 2020, in some African countries agricultural yields could be reduced by as much as 50%. By the 2080s, the area of arid and semiarid land in Africa will likely increase by 5-8%.
Africa:
• rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development have placed on natural resources.
• availability of adequate fresh water, which by the 2050s will be a concern for possibly more than one billion people.
• continued melting of glaciers in the Himalayan region is projected to increase flooding.
• coastal areas, and especially its heavily populated delta regions, will become even more prone to increased flooding because of both rising sea levels and river flooding.
Asia’s
Contd. Europe:
will need to cope with retreating glaciers and extend of permafrost,
reduced precipitation in Southern Europe and the possibility of more droughts in some areas, as well
as increased risk of flash floods.
higher temperatures and heat waves will increase health risks and increase the frequency and
severity of wildfires.
reduced forest area and agricultural productivity and greater vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas
to rising sea levels are likely.
many economic sectors will be affected. For Southern Europe, less water will reduce hydropower
potential, tourism and, in general, crop production.
Latin America’s :
changes in precipitation patterns and the disappearance of glaciers will significantly reduce the
amount of water available for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.
In drier areas, climate change is expected to lead to increased salinization and desertification of
agricultural land.
The productivity of some crops and livestock will decrease, with adverse consequences for food
security. Rising sea levels will cause increased risk of flooding in low-lying coastal areas.
North America: will experience further decrease of mountain snow due to rising temperatures leading
to increased winter flooding and reduced summer flows, and to altered seasonal availability of water.
Many areas are expected to experience more, longer and hotter heat waves, with a greater potential for
adverse health impacts. Sustained higher temperatures also will increase the risk of forest fires. Coastal
communities will be increasingly threatened if the intensity of tropical storms increases.
What is CC Adaption
CCA is defined by UNFCCC “as adjustment in natural or human systems
in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects
that moderate harm and exploit beneficial opportunities.
This can include;
(a) adapting development to gradual changes in average temperature, sea level
and precipitation; and
(b) reducing and managing the risks associated with more frequent, severe and
unpredictable extreme weather events” (UNISDR, 2010)
CC initiatives in The Gambia
CC
Legal framework
Institutions NEA is heading the CC
Policy and Plans The CC policy is in progress
Resources
Integration into
development plans
1. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Summary for Policymakers:
http://195.70.10.65/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf.
2. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II Report:
http://195.70.10.65/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm.
3. http://www.vox.com/2015/4/7/8352381/anthropocene-NASA-images
4. Climate Change, Connections, UNFPA
References: