1. Climate models Projections 21st century

Large scale

2. Regionalization

3. Localized Distributions

??? Climate Variability and Change Information for Building Resilience

Lisa Goddard International Research Institute for Climate & Society

The Earth Institute, Columbia University goddard@iri.columbia.edu

Acknowledgements: Walter Baethgen, Arthur Greene

1-2 May 2012 1 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

Dealing with Climate Variability

and Change

1-2 May 2012 2 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

???

Dealing with Climate Variability

and Change

1-2 May 2012 3 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

???

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

Sept. 8, 2008 EESC W4400x

Global Climate Change Projections

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis for Climate Change http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

Climate Variability & Change Globally

Temperature

Most of the variability in the globally-averaged temperature is contained in the slowly varying “climate change” component.

65%

13%

21%

(Greene, Goddard & Cousin, EOS, 2010)

Annual Mean Temperature

5 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

1-2 May 2012 6 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

Climate Variability & Change Locally e.g. Climate Variability & Change in SESA - DJF

~0%

17%

80%

Temperature

21%

8%

69%

Precipitation

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

1-2 May 2012 7 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

Climate Variability & Change Locally e.g. Climate Variability & Change in SESA - DJF

~0%

17%

80%

Temperature

21%

8%

69%

Precipitation

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

8

Precipitation Trends: of total variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means

1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/

1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 9

Precipitation Decadal Variability: of variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/

1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 10

Precipitation Decadal Variability: % of variance 20th Century Gridded Observations – Jul-Aug-Sep Seasonal Means

12%

40%

46%

DECOMPOSITION Timescales Simulations Research Issues

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/

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(Greene, et al. 2012)

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

Decadal Variability

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Timescales Simulations Research Issues

Total Variability of crop/livestock production with current climate & current technology

(a farmer can get 5 or 8 tons/ha of corn or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing)

How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc?

How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate information at seasonal, longer-term scales?

How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate institutional arrangements, policies?

How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions?

There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools (e.g., financial such as insurance)

1-2 May 2012 13 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

Total Variability of crop/livestock production with current climate & current technology

(a farmer can get 5 or 8 tons/ha of corn or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing)

How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc?

How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate information at seasonal, longer-term scales?

How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate institutional arrangements, policies?

How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions?

There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools (e.g., financial such as insurance)

1-2 May 2012 14 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

Total Variability of crop/livestock production with current climate & current technology

(e.g. a farmer can get 5 to 8 tons/ha of corn or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing)

How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc?

How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate information at seasonal, longer-term scales?

How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate institutional arrangements, policies?

How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions?

There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools (e.g., financial such as insurance)

1-2 May 2012 15 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

1-2 May 2012 16 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

Take Away Points

1 – Consider climate at all timescales … for establishing resilience, for informing management, and for planning 2 – Test current systems/options to current climate risk 3 – Strive for “informed uncertainty” (won’t get that straight from models) 4 – Incorporate mechanisms to deal with residual risk

1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 17

18

Precipitation Trends: of variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means

1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop

Timescales Simulations Research Issues

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/

1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 19

Temperature Trends: Percent of total variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means