ccmc (community coordinated modeling center) support...
TRANSCRIPT
CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling
Center) Support for RBSP
Community Coordinated Modeling Center
Space Weather Laboratory
http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Yihua Zheng, Michael Hesse, Masha Kuznetsova!and the CCMC Team!
Outline
• CCMC goals and activities
• CCMC contribution to space science research
• CCMC involvement in space weather services/tools
• iSWA (Integrated Space Weather Analysis) web-based dissemination system
• How CCMC can support RBSP mission in both scientific research and space weather application • Can help with pre-launch RBSP virtual runs and post-launch event
analyses • CCMC can serve RBSP RT data on iSWA • CCMC can ingest them into suitable assimilation models, such as
DREAM. • We will use the data for SWx services to NASA missions and for
model validation • Outlook
CCMC
Facilitate and Advance Community Research
Address National Space Weather Needs
NASA, DoD and NOAA
CCMC Goals
Mission Support
Mission Support
RBSP
CCMC Activities
• Make modern space science models available to the research community
• Evaluate scientific research models for both scientific research and space weather purposes - Validity
- Robustness, reliability • Participate in the development of advanced models
• Develop real-time systems that can be applied to operations
• Develop Space Weather tools
• Support NASA space weather situational awareness • Participate in space science/space weather education
Fok RC Fok RB CRCM RCM WINDMI
LFM GUMICS SWMF / GM+IM+IE OpenGGCM
Weimer CTIP TIEGCM AbbyNormal USU-GAIM SAMI2 IRI MSESE
ENLIL
Heliospheric Tomography
WSA
SWMF-IH SWMF-SC
MAS
ANMDH
CCMC Models Cover the Entire Domain
Solar/SW Monitors
PFSS
EMMREM DREAM
CCMC team consists of scientists with modeling expertise spanning the entire domain, capable of making modifications (working together with model developers) necessary to address outstanding science questions.
CCMC: Scientific Research
CCMC provides, to the scientific community, access to modern space research models
• through an automated request system for model runs • through modern, online, visualization and analysis
tools • through standard data formats for simulation data
downloads CCMC tests and evaluates models
• as an unbiased agent • against standard metrics • through event studies, and through real-time
calculations • in support of the needs of science users and space
weather forecasters
CCMC: Scientific Research continued
CCMC Supports community wide modeling challenges.
• CCMC has presence in CEDAR workshop – started June 2009 - CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (CETI) Challenge
• CCMC is an active participant in GEM Modeling Challenges
• CCMC has started modeling challenge for validating the Solar-Heliosphere models
Space weather services at SWL
Space Weather Desk providing the latest space weather information to all
NASA missions
Solar Shield System Safeguarding national power
grids
Led by Antti Pulkkinen
Collaborations in Space Weather
Arena Collaborations with AFWA
Collaborations within NASA And with others
CCMC: Space Weather
iSWA Innovative SWx
dissemination system All has CCMC’s involvement
M. Maddox, D. Berrios iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov
Innovative Dissemination: ISWA"Integrated Space Weather Analysis System
ISWA has more than 200 products including modeling results and comprehensive sets of observational data.
Innovative Dissemination: ISWA"Post-Impact Analysis
Marlo Maddox
Models that are of direct relevance to RBSP
SWMF Model: T. Gombosi et al. (CSEM)
• Stand-alone RBE with TS05 model – running in real time • SWMF/BATSRUS+RCM+RBE – running in real time too
Glocer et al., 2009 • SWMF/BATSRUS+CRCM+RBE (almost ready for delivery to
CCMC – Alex Glocer) • DREAM (Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model) –
J. Koller
• SWMF/BATSRUS+Fok Ring current model – real time • SWMF/BATSRUS+RCM – run on request, works on making it
running in real time mode • SWMF/BATSRUS+CRCM (one-way coupling running, two way
coupling is almost done) N Buzulukova et al., 2010 – a joint effort between the author and CCMC
RBE Fok et al., 2001
Different visualization plots from real-time runs
Kinetic convection-diffusion model
Coupling between RBE, MHD, RCM/CRCM
Glocer et al.,[2009]
This approach:
• Good for taking care of boundary conditions in terms of plasma source populations – dayside plasma entry
• Substorm injection physics Loading and unloading – Kuznetsova et al., 2007 Taktakishvili, et al. 2007 Taktakishvili, et al. 2008
• Better description of global magnetic field
/CRCM
A plasmasphere model (DGCPM) is already included.
Courtesy: J. Koller
RBSP datasets
Assimilation models (DREAM)
Ingest RBSP observations into suitable assimilation models
Other Relevant Models: Connectivity Product
Monitor Earth-Sun Magnetic Connectivity and Proximity to Active Regions
• Monitor active regions and proximity to foot-point locations of the earth
• View future projections of active regions and foot-point locations
• Available in different EIT wavelengths
A SEP Model: Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE)
Posner et al., 2007
SOHO LASCO C3 RD Images
• Time of CME Arrival • Measure of Uncertainty • Magnitude of Impact
Enlil Cone Model "
CME Arrival Prediction
Other Relevant Models: ENLIL cone model: CME prediction "
Models: Enlil, WSA, N. Arge, D. Odstrcil
• Typical error: +/-5 hours • vs. Standard model error:
+/- 8hours
Models that are relevant to RBSP
Magnetopause position: S/C orientation Updated every 4mins ~45min forecast Model: SWMF
Kp model based on Newell et al. coupling function
CCMC Support for RBSP
Research: Through event studies
The diverse models at CCMC can provide a broad context from the Sun to upper atmosphere – the big picture
provide comparisons among different models or model combination
Through model validation and model metrics study
Any other means RBSP needs
Space Weather: Provide space weather info/forecast to RBSP operations and/or science team if interested via our space weather desk service.
CCMC Support for RBSP
CCMC can serve RBSP RT data on iSWA
CCMC can ingest them into suitable assimilation models, such as DREAM.
We will use the data for SWx services to NASA missions and for model validation
Flexible in providing the visualization format(s) that meets RBSP needs
M. Maddox, D. Berrios iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov
Innovative Dissemination: ISWA"Integrated Space Weather Analysis System
RBSP data and associated virtual RBSP products can become part of iSWA.
RBSP-CCMC: Mutual Benefits
• By working together, CCMC would benefit from model improvement/advancement for the near-Earth region that RBSP could potentially bring.
• Real-time RBSP data will be invaluable for enhancing CCMC’s space weather service capabilities.
Outlook
• CCMC aims to facilitate science research by enabling the whole community’s easy access to advanced models and serves as a tool by which science progress at NASA, NSF, AFOSR, ONR feeds into Space Weather operations
• CCMC has unique experience in both areas • CCMC has trusted relation with model owners • RBSP, as a LWS mission, will provide unprecedented insights into
the dynamic processes of the radiation belts, which is a critical region of space that has significant space weather impacts.
• We look forward to fruitful collaboration between CCMC and RBSP – both for pre- and post- launch periods.
• Look forward to collaborations with ERG, ORBITALS, RESONANCE, ground observations and any of you in the audience. Let us know how we can help. We’d like to have real-time data that is relevant to SWx and interested in new models.