CEPOS, March 26, 2009CEPOS, March 26, 2009

Threats Against Democracy and values Threats Against Democracy and values – A Situational Report from Malmö – A Situational Report from Malmö

Research Director Magnus Ranstorp, Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies, Swedish National Defence College

European Commission DG JLS commissioned studies

European Commission DG JLS commissioned studies Lot 1: The trigger factors for violent radicalisation Lot 2: The beliefs, ideologies and narratives of violent radicals Lot 3: The recruitment and mobilisation of support___________________Aim: Development of enhanced cooperation and exchange of experience to prevent

and counter violent radicalisation within the EU Establish exchange with regional experts, networks or CoE to promote the

sharing of best practise Analysis of factors leading to violent radicalisation Develop and evaluate counter-measures – benchmarking.___________________ Lot 4: Best Practices - Change Institute (EU Network of Experts on

Radicalisation): Study on the best practices in cooperation between authorities and civil society

with a view to the prevention and response to violent radicalisation– Priority Areas For Engagement:

» Education; Spaces for Critical Engagement; Anti-discrimination and social justice issues

Social Movement theory – Q. Wiktorovitz

Cognitive OpeningReligious Seeking

Radicalisation as a three-pronged process:

• Radical interpretation of reality

• Moral shock

• Personal crisis

Persuasionprocess

• A framework for interpretation

• Videos, talks, publication and Internet

Socialisation-process

• reinforcement mechanisms within group dynamics

• persuasion of rightousness of jihadi mission and rewards

Research on RadicalizationResearch on Radicalization- preliminary findings- preliminary findings

Dynamic interplay between opposite poles of extremismDynamic interplay between opposite poles of extremism Radicalization processes - not just a linear progression, a complex Radicalization processes - not just a linear progression, a complex

combination of push-pull factors or that people move in and out of combination of push-pull factors or that people move in and out of functionsfunctions– Emerging patterns that recruitment precedes radicalizationEmerging patterns that recruitment precedes radicalization– Focus on ”R&R brokers”Focus on ”R&R brokers”

Understanding group dynamics as the engine of radicalization Understanding group dynamics as the engine of radicalization processesprocesses

Focus needs to move beyond individual socio-psychological factors Focus needs to move beyond individual socio-psychological factors towards social network analysis based on social movement theoriestowards social network analysis based on social movement theories

Focus needs to be on the counter-cultural aspects of radical belief-Focus needs to be on the counter-cultural aspects of radical belief-systems.systems.

Don’t just chase radicalization Don’t just chase radicalization ’football’’football’

Future research directions (1)Future research directions (1) Recognise diversity of Muslim communitiesRecognise diversity of Muslim communities

– Not enough data on dynamics within Not enough data on dynamics within communitiescommunities

– Evaluate community impact assessmentEvaluate community impact assessment» Poorly calibrated policies can create Poorly calibrated policies can create

problems rather than solve themproblems rather than solve them– Too much disconnect between understanding Too much disconnect between understanding

radicalization as a process and the impact of radicalization as a process and the impact of measures on these same forcesmeasures on these same forces

Problem of radicalization has simultaneously Problem of radicalization has simultaneously political, social, cultural and religious dimensionspolitical, social, cultural and religious dimensions– How do we deconstruct the ”Single Narrative” How do we deconstruct the ”Single Narrative”

and create effective counter-narrative?and create effective counter-narrative?

Future research directions (2)Future research directions (2) New innovative delivery mechanisms (humour, New innovative delivery mechanisms (humour,

soap-operas & PR-industries)soap-operas & PR-industries) Dynamics of gangs as vehicle for Dynamics of gangs as vehicle for

understanding this problemunderstanding this problem Focus on disengagement and rehabilitation Focus on disengagement and rehabilitation

after prisonafter prison How do we benchmark ”Measures of How do we benchmark ”Measures of

effectiveness”?effectiveness”? Sharing ’best practice’ between countries and Sharing ’best practice’ between countries and

regions is criticalregions is critical

Multifaceted Intervention • Leadership education for youths• Education for schools, teachers and counselors• Positive role models• Countering truancy • Inter-ethnic & inter- generational dialogues• Measures directed against women• Imam education• Koran education (instead of Koran schools)

EMPOWERMENT – national strategy with 34 projects• Seminars/debates about extremism/radikalisation

•Local strong ties b/w M. org. & politicians• Network of resource persons (barometer)• Integration Service Center• Leadership education (personal coaching)

• Debate & dialogue training• Project BrugOver

• Educational measures within schools about dangers and positive roadmaps• Mentoring for particularly vulnerable ethnic minorities• Summer camp for youths• Information on web pages• Bus tour with parliamentarians, imams and students

Amsterdamse Burgermonitor• Barometer: strengthen resilience and against causes of extremism

Local City Districts• Parental support on religious education• Educational measures to strengthen critical thinking • Online religious Q&A• Chat-rooms with imams• Internet cafés

Report & Advice Center• Advice on detecting and responding to radicalisation• Strengthening SSP-coordination

Dutch Measures

Cabinet Assignment on “Counter-Radicalization”Cabinet Assignment on “Counter-Radicalization”

Description and definitionsDescription and definitions of what characterize violent of what characterize violent extremism and radicalization by conducting an inventory extremism and radicalization by conducting an inventory of existing knowledge levels both in Sweden and of existing knowledge levels both in Sweden and internationallyinternationally..

Through Through case studiescase studies describing the factual occurrences in describing the factual occurrences in Sweden and other countries as well as a Sweden and other countries as well as a current threat current threat assessmentassessment. .

Describe Describe which toolswhich tools that have been used to counter that have been used to counter violent extremism, how effective these have been and an violent extremism, how effective these have been and an analysisanalysis of which of these tools or ‘best practices’ could of which of these tools or ‘best practices’ could be appropriately developed further to prevent groups with be appropriately developed further to prevent groups with extremist views, who question the core values of society, extremist views, who question the core values of society, from taking violent turns. from taking violent turns.

Sweden - RosengårdSweden - Rosengård

21 955 residents60% - 1st generation immigrants26% - 2nd generationEmployment level: 38% (b/t 20-64 years)In one district unemployment is 85%

Key Findings – Threats Against Democracy & Values: Key Findings – Threats Against Democracy & Values: A Situational Report from MalmöA Situational Report from Malmö

In depth interviews with SSP-representatives; youth workers and SÄPO

29 out of 30 respondents report increase in levels of radicalization

Every five years half the population changes– Unofficial figures for residents (unregistered) are double– Crowded housing – Segregation– Deficient introduction for newly arrived immigrants

Garage mosques: 1-3 out of 15 with violent extremist message

“Thought Police”

35 Recommendations35 Recommendations

Legislative changes and politics Enhanced coordination & educational

initatives Preventative efforts in schools Cultural Associations Prioritised Research

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Situation in Amsterdam

Strong connections between extremisms (Muslim/right-wing)

1,500 belong to extremist groups

Moroccans most vulnerable group followed by Somalis, Afghans and Iraqis

Prisons are prominent radicalisation milieus

Illegal and unregistered immigrants number 15-50,000.

Radicalisation in schools is increasing

Foreign financing (Saudi)

Research:– IMES influenced City’s

radicalisation programme– Evaluation in 2010

Successful measures:– Strengthen self-confidence and

identity among youths– To address the surrounding

root causes of radicalisation– To reverse eroding confidence

in politicians and local government

Situation in Rotterdam

276,000 out of 587,000 residents are immigrants (176 nationalities)

Moroccans dominate North and Turkish the South – indication of a surrounding belt of rightwing extremism

”City-room mosques” are increasing in number

Hizb-ut-Tahir establishing itself more strongly

Moroccans are particularly vulnerable in socioeconomic terms.

To address crowded housing legislation was introduced in 2007 that makes requirement that 20% above m. wage to move into housing estates

Measures against social security fraud

In 2008, four Muslim schools were closed due to poor standards (both cities).

Rotterdam city council has commissioned geographical report on all Islamist, right-wing and animal rights groups

Situation in CopenhagenSituation in Copenhagen

Radicalization has different centrifugal forces in CPH/Odense/Aarhus

Model on intervention (hot spots) built on Rotterdam

No ”thought police” visibly present

Hizb-ut-Tarhir is strong but not considered a channel for violent radicalization

Immigrant gangs connected to criminality and ’exclusion’ a growing phenomenon

Four districts considered at risk for radicalization

Mjölnerparken:– 2,200 individuals (93%

immigrants with 38 nat) and 80% on social welfare.

32,000 individuals in high risk zone (barometer)

Citizenship test as a means to ensure language

VI KBH’R (We Copenhageners): advise; education and mentors

City network on radicalization – Amsterdam, Utrecht, Rotterdam, Liverpool and Essen.