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CGA Presge Foodservice Price Index (FPI) Sub Category Report - July 2017 Your source for accurate data, analysis and insights into today’s food prices.

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CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index (FPI)Sub Category Report - July 2017

Your source for accurate data, analysis and insights into today’s food prices.

2

To receive the full volumetric data, detailed category and subcategory performance and a more in-depth analysis, please [email protected] or [email protected] to purchase.

TheoverallFoodservicePriceIndexinflationfigureof8.8%isdownslightlyfromMay’shighpointof9.0%.ButitisstillmuchhigherthanConsumerPriceIndexinflation,revealinghowmuchmoreexposedfoodserviceistoinflationarypressures. Twonumbersareparticularlynoteworthythismonth.InflationintheFish categoryhasreachedahighof20.8%,whileSugarsistheonlydeflationarycategory,sittingat-5.1%inJune. ThedipforsugarandotherconfectionarycanbeattributedtofactorsincludinganincreaseinbothsugarcaneproductionandyieldsinBrazilandhealthierbeetsugarproductionacrosstheEU.Cocoaprices,havingalreadybeenlow,arepredictedtoremainsowhenthenextharvestbeginsinOctober.Butthiscategory’srelianceonimportsislikelytohurtpricesinthefuture,withrecentreportsontheprogressofBrexitnegotiationscoincidingwithafurtherweakeningoftheBritishpoundagainsttheEuro. Fishhasseensignificantpricerisesacrossthepastyear,andJune’sinflationfiguresitsat20.8%.Pricepressureisparticularlyacuteinsalmon,whichcontinuestosufferfromsealiceinbothNorwegianandScottishfarms.TheworseningexchangeratebetweenthepoundandNorwegiankronehasexacerbatedthesituation,andcommentatorssuggeststerlingwillonlyweakenratherthanstrengthenasBrexitnegotiationscontinue. Oil pricesalsocontinuetoinfluenceallfoodserviceproductstoagreaterorlesserdegree,dependingontheamountoftransportrequired.Whilepriceshavedroppedsincethebeginningof2016,onayear-on-yearbasisthedifferenceisnotgreat.

FoodservicePriceInflation(FPI)isat8.8%year-on-yearforJune2017

Foodservicepricesarehigheryear-on-yearinmostcategories,withthenotableexceptionofSugars,PreservesandConfectionary,wherepricesareactually5.1%lowerthanlastyear.TherateofinflationfortheFishcategoryisalsonoticeablyhigherthismonth,reachinga20.8%increaseoverJune2016.

AbouttheCGAPrestigeFoodservicePriceIndex(FPI)

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages - FPI vs CPI

Executive Summary

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

+8.8%

333

FPICategoryReportJuly2017

Category

107.3

101.7

103.1

105.5

94.5

98.3

96.6

106.9

99.8

106.3

101.8

96.3

106.5

102.8

99.4

105.1

107.7

95.1

101.5

99.4

Jan 17Jun 16

98.2

104.3

106.3

106.0

99.3

103.4

105.7

110.2

101.4

100.0

101.7

97.0

99.0

101.3

99.2

103.9

106.4

102.3

101.0

99.1

Jul 16 Oct 16

103.4

102.1

107.5

107.6

98.5

101.5

101.2

98.9

101.0

103.4

100.9

96.9

106.9

101.8

97.7

105.0

107.0

103.0

102.0

97.8

Aug 16 Nov 16

104.0

102.1

102.3

107.4

99.8

101.3

101.6

106.2

104.3

103.6

Sep 16 Dec 16

104.9

104.3

101.5

109.4

95.1

97.7

97.7

107.0

101.8

103.0

Abrieflullbeforepricesincreaseagain

Sugarandcocoapricescurrentlylow,butcouldheadupsoon

OliveoilinpotentialcrisisastreediseasehitsSpain

Exchangerates,climbingoilpricesandfruitshortagesraisingprices

Milkfarmgatepricesstillnotenoughto

keepfarmersinsector

Supermarketmovestowards“BritishOnly”meathittingsupply

SevereshortfallsinEUharvestsconstraining

supply

Salmonandtunapricescontinuetopushhigher

Coffee,cocoaandteaallheadingupwards

MoreBritishgrowingseasons

starting,butexchangeratesstillaconcern

Foodservice Price Index June 2017 +8.8%

102.3 105.2 110.0 110.4 114.1

102.3 107.5 109.2 112.2 108.6

103.6 104.0 107.2 114.1 121.0

97.0 101.0 102.0 109.2 109.7

100.1 103.1 103.3 106.6 106.4

100.2 103.5 105.6 109.7 116.6

107.2 116.5 106.9 110.6 114.8

104.3 106.6 105.0 102.8 96.4

104.7 108.1 105.9 111.7 110.4

Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May17 Jun 17

106.6 108.4 106.4 110.6 111.3

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

Pricesarestillclimbingformanycategories,withonlysugarsshowingnegativeinflationthismonth.Allindicationsarethatpriceswillcontinuetoincreaseintheshort-term,however.

Category Summary

All findings for June 2017 relative to June 2016

4

FPICategoryReportJuly2017

OurgraphbelowshowsFPIperformanceoverthepastyear,alongwitharollingone-yearforecast.Inflationsitsat8.8%thismonth,withourforecastnowreflectingaharderpositiononthesterlingexchangerategoingforward.

Historical Performance & Forecast

Jan 17

101.8101.3 106.0

Jun 16 Jun 17

101.8

Apr 17

101.4

Feb 17 Mar 17

109.2

Jul 16

102.8

May 17

102.2101.1 110.0

Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16

101.5

Dec 16

102.4 106.7

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

Asobservedbefore,oilpriceshavebecomeunpredictable.WhilepriceshavegenerallybeentrendingupwardssincethemiddleofJune,that’snoindicatorofwhatitwilldointhefuture-indeed,acrossthesamelengthoftimebetweenMayandJune,pricestumbledby$10perbarrel. TheongoingBrexitnegotiations,especiallythoseelementsthatcentrearoundtherightsofEUcitizensintheUKgoingforward,continuetohaveaneffectonhowtheUKisperceivedasaplacetocomeandwork.Whilewehavealreadypointedouttheeffectontemporaryfarmworkersbefore,foodserviceingeneralhasastrongforeignlabourcomponent. Giventheseemingreluctanceofdomesticworkerstoapplyforsimilarroles(onerestaurantchaincommentedrecentlythatonlyoneinfiftyapplicantsforpositionswasBritish),labourcostsmaysoonneedtoriseinordertoensuremealsarebeingserved,whichwillinevitablypassthroughintofoodprices. Asnotedlastmonth,however,FruitandVegetablesarestillthecategoriestowatchwithregardstopriceincreasesduetoreducedlabouravailability.Whencombinedwiththeincreasedpressureoftheweakerpound(bothonforeignworkerwages,aswellasimportedproducts),thesecategoriescouldwellbeourbestwindowintowhatthefutureholdsforfoodprices.

101.1 101.4 101.8 101.5102.4

106.0

110.0

108.8

113.2

98.0

102.0

106.0

110.0

114.0

Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18

FPI Low Forecast High Forecast

5

Breadandcerealpricesareupby4.8%comparedtothistimelastyear.WhileunexpectedlywarmanddryweathercontinuestoaffectgrowthintheUK,globalfactorsalsoplaytheirpart,withUSwinterwheatdisappointing,whilefactorsatplayinRussian,UkraineandKazakhstanalsopushwheatpricesup.Butterpricesarealsoservingtopushthiscategoryup.

Bread & Cereals

Whiletheinflationfigureforthismonthmaybethelowestseenthisyear,itseemstobeverymuchthecalmbeforethestorm,astherearestillforcesatworkonglobalwheatproductionthatthreatentocutintosupplyandpushpricesup. Asreportedlastmonth,somedisappointingyieldsforhardredwinterwheatandgeneralpoorprojectionsforwheatproductioninEasternEurope,togetherwithfarmerslookingtoreducewheatplantingsinfavourofmoreprofitablecrops,haveservedtodentproduction.Theoverarchingissueforglobalwheat,however,continuestobetheweather.OngoingdroughtdamagetocropsintheUSandCanadahaveweighedmoreheavilyonproductionthere,withwheatfuturespricesgoinguptoreflectthis. TheUKhasalsoseenproductionhamperedbytheweather,whichhasseenusbecominganetimporterofwheatforthe2016/2017period,apositiontheUKhasonlyfounditselfinthreetimeinthelasttwodecades.Anincreaseinimportsalsomeansincreasedexposuretopoorexchangeratesthatsuchapositionbrings. Whileitmaytakeafewmonthsfortheseeffectstofilterthrough,theyeventuallymust,andwhentheydowecanexpectpricestoriseaccordingly.

FPISub-CategoryReportJuly2017

CurrentinflationFPI | 1.3% 12mthForecast | 1.0%

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

97.897.1

98.597.9 97.6

98.5

99.8 98.0

99.9

100.3101.1

100.5 100.8

105.1

103.9

105.0

103.4

101.5 101.3

98.397.7

100.1

103.1103.3

106.6 106.4

96.0

100.0

104.0

108.0

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 CPI FPI

6

AmbientHotBeveragesareup12.0%comparedtolastyear,andpricesareupcomparedtolastmonthtoo.Commoditypricesacrossallthreemajorareasinthiscategoriesareup,andthisisexacerbatedbyexchangerates.

Ambient Hot Beverages

Coffeemarketprices,havingfallenacrossthestartoftheyear,havebeguntoevenoutandarenowpickingup.Thisisconsistentwithmorerecentpredictionsthatcoffeefuturespricesaresettogoupacrossthenextfewyears,effectivelyapredictionofwherepriceswillhead.Thiswilllikelybedowntocontinueddemandclashingwithdesirestorebuildstockpilesthathavebecomedepleted. AfterhittingalowpointinMay,pricesforcocoahavebeguntocreepbackupwards.TradersinGhanaandIvoryCoastcocoahaveindicatedthatanincomingperiodofraininthesetwocountrieswillaffectthemidcropseason,buthavebeenunabletoagreeonwhatthismeans,splitbetweenwhetheritwillhaveapositiveornegativeeffect.Regardless,somearealreadypredictingthatthepricewillhaveincreasedbytheendof2017. Teapricesalsocontinuetogoup,withsuppliesofoneofthemostexpensiveteas,Darjeeling,disruptedbyunrestinrelevantgrowingregions,haltingpickingofthehighlyprizedsecond-flushoftea.Kenyanteahasalsoincreasedinpriceduetosupplyshortagescausedbyerraticcropping,makingithardtopredicthowmuchproductionwillbeachieved. Foralltheseindividualcommodities,however,bythetimetheproductsarriveintheUK,priceshavebeenaffectedbythelowvalueofthepound,meaningthatevenifcommoditypricesfall,theyarestillmoreexpensivetoimport.

CurrentinflationFPI | 12.0% 12mthForecast | 9.2%

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

FPISub-CategoryReportJuly2017

100.5 100.2

101.4

100.3

98.5

100.198.8

100.3

104.5103.5

105.1103.8

105.4

101.8 101.7100.9

98.2

103.4104.0

107.3

104.9

102.3

105.2

110.8 110.4

114.1

96.0

101.0

106.0

111.0

116.0

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17

CPI FPI

7

Fishpriceshaveincreasedsignificantly,now20.8%higherthanatthispointlastyear.ThecontinuedhardshipssufferedbytheScottishsalmonindustrycontribute,asdoongoingconcernovertunaandcodquotas.

Fish

Sightingsofhumpback(pink)salmonhavebeenreportedinScotlandandIreland.Whileanotherspeciesofsalmoncouldbearguedtobeapositiveinfluenceonriverswithexistingsalmonpopulations,thecompetitioncouldhaveanegativeimpactonnativeAtlanticsalmon,unwelcomenewswhenthesalmonindustryisalreadysufferingfromasealouseepidemicthattheyhavestruggledtocontain. Norwegiansalmonhasbeenmorestablebycomparison,havingcomedownslightlyinpriceacrossJune,butpriceshavebeguntocomebackupinJuly,andareanticipatedtocontinuedoingso. Tunapricesarealsosignificantlyinflatedcomparedtolastyear–asexplainedinpreviousreports,thereareseveralreasonsforthis,includingintroductionofsustainabilitymeasuresintoIndianOceanfishing.Thequotasystemwillnecessarilyconstraincatchesandthereforesupply. Whilecodpriceshavealsoelevatedonconcernsoversustainablefishing,therehasatleastbeensomegoodnewsonthisfront-NorthSeaCodhasbeenlabelledassustainablebytheMarineStewardshipCouncil,thefirsttimein20yearsithasheldthislabel.Notonlydoesthisaddapotentialsourceofcod,butthiswouldessentiallybedomestic,reducingtheadditionallayerofexchangeratesthatmightotherwisepushupprices.Itremainstobeseentowhatlevelthiscodcanbefished,butcouldbebeneficialtobuyersnotonlylookingtogetabetterpriceforcod,butbeapartofsustainablefishing,too.

CurrentinflationFPI | 20.8% 12mthForecast | 14.9%

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

FPISub-CategoryReportJuly2017

95.898.4 98.1

96.8

99.6

99.3 99.9 100.2

104.8 104.8103.5

105.8

107.9

95.1

102.3 103.0

110.2

98.9

106.2 106.9 107.0 107.2

116.5

106.9

110.6

114.8

92.0

100.0

108.0

116.0

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 CPI FPI

8

Fruitpriceinflationisnowat13.6%forJune,asthisimport-dependantcategorystruggleswiththeweakenedvalueofthepoundandtheeffectsofpoorweather.

Fruit

Asdetailedinourpreviousreport,theaftereffectsofpoorweathercontinuetoimpactthemostpopularfruithereintheUK. SeveralproducersoffruitacrosstheEUhavebeenforcedtocuttheirharvestforecastsconsiderably.Belgium,forexample,estimatedthatapplegrowerstherewillseetheirharvestscutbyupto70%,andwhilepearsaredoingbetter,theyarealsoanticipatedtobecutbyupto20%.Withsuchaseverecutinavailablefruit,itisfearedthattheworst-hitproducersmayabandonfruitgrowingaltogether.Germangrowthhasalsobeenaffectedacrossavarietyofproduce,withthedamageandestimatedimpactonharvestsgrowingmoreseverethefurthersouthandwestonegoes,whileItalyisalsoexpectingupto25%reductionsinharvests. LookingbeyondEurope,theUKisseeingproblemsinotherfruitsources,especiallythosethatsupplyuswithourcitrus–SouthAfricaandArgentinahavealsoseenproductionissuesthathascutintoavailablesupplies,whichiscompoundedbythefactthatthesecountriesalsosupplymarketsintheFarEastandMiddleEast,bothofwhicharepreparedtopayhigherpricesthanthoseinEuropeortheUK. Ontopoftheseconcernsandupwardpressuresonprice,asacategorythatleansheavilyonimportstheeffectsoftheweakerpoundisinescapable.TakingEuropeanimportsandtheEuroasanexample,comparedtoJune’16whentheexchangereachedaround€1.31/£1,attimeofwritingtheexchangerateisamuchlower€1.11/£1.Unlessthingsbegintoimprove,bothintermsofharvestyieldsandthevalueofthepound,wecanexpectpricestocontinuegoingup.

CurrentinflationFPI | 13.6% 12mthForecast | 13.0%

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

FPISub-CategoryReportJuly2017

99.397.8

98.8

101.1102.3

105.6 105.6

101.2102.5 103.7

103.5 102.9 102.5

106.5

99.0

106.9 106.3107.5

102.3 103.1 101.5103.6 104.0

107.2

114.1

121.0

94.0

102.0

110.0

118.0

126.0

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 CPI FPI

9

Meatpricesareup11.0%comparedtolastyear.Withtheexceptionofchicken,mostmajormeattypesareup,duetoincreaseddemandandreducedsupply,partlyduetonewcommitmentsfromsomesupermarketstohave“British-only”freshmeat.

Meat

Demandacrossseveraltypesofmeatislikelytoincrease,dueinparttofirstCo-OpandnowMorrison’smovingtosellingBritish-onlyfreshmeat,amoveintendedtocutbackonimportcosts. Standardpigpriceshavebeensteadilyincreasingsincethebeginningoftheyear,understandablewhenconsideringthatUKpigslaughteringsaredown,combinedwiththeaverageslaughterweightalsocomingdownforthefourthconsecutivemonth,reducingsupply Beefpricesremainhigh,withfarmersinbothBritainandNorthernIrelandseeingsteadydemand.SomeabbatoirsinIrelandhaveindicatedthattheywanttopullbeefpricesdown,thoughfarmershavebeenadvisedtostandfirmagainstanyattempttodevaluetheirproductwhendemandishealthy. Lambpricesarealsouphere,asfallingexportsfromNewZealandaddadditionalpressuretosupplieshereandinEurope,asexportslooktotakeadvantageofthelull-thelowvalueofthepoundinparticularmakesourlambmoreattractivetoimportersintheEUandelsewhere.Thismeanslambissubjecttoadditionaldemandbothathomeandabroad,whichcannothelpbutputupprices.

CurrentinflationFPI | 11.0% 12mthForecast | 7.9%

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

FPISub-CategoryReportJuly2017

96.395.0 95.4 95.3 94.8 95.0

95.9 96.2 96.6 96.797.5 97.2 97.6

99.4 99.197.8

100.0

103.4 103.6

106.3

103.0

104.7

108.1

105.9

111.7110.4

92.0

98.0

104.0

110.0

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 CPI FPI

10

Pricesinthiscategoryare10.4%higherthanatthistimelastyear,acombinationofreducedsupply,increaseddemandbothhereandabroadforprocessedgoodssuchasbutter,creamandcheeseandsteadilyincreasingfarmgatepricesformilk.

Aspredictedinlastmonth’sreport,followingafarmgatepriceriseformilkof1.65pplfromArla,otherprocessorsarenowfollowingsuit,withMullerhavingannouncedanincreaseof1.5pplwitheffectfrom1stAugust.Whilethismeansthatpricesformilkanddairyproductswillinevitablyincrease,priceshavenotyetreachedapointtostoptheexodusoffarmersfromdairyfarming. Fromthis,onecanseewherethegrowingconcernaboutavailabilityofbutterandcreamaroundChristmastimehassprungfrom–thenumberofsourcesformilkhasalreadydwindledenoughthatsupplyhasstartedtobecomeconstrained,andthiscanonlycontinueuntilfarmersbegintoseeaprofitfromdairyfarming.Untilthen,weshouldexpectsuppliestoshrink,andpricestogrow. Theoneareainwhichpricesmaymovedifferentlyischeese,andeventhenprimarilyforexportsandimports–whilethepoundisweakened,domesticcheeseismorefavourablypricedforoverseasbuyers,butimportedcheesepricesarehigher.

CurrentinflationFPI | 10.4% 12mthForecast | 8.0%

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

FPISub-CategoryReportJuly2017

95.596.9

96.7

95.8 95.7 96.096.5

96.0

96.6

98.297.4

98.2 98.299.4 99.2

97.7

99.398.5

99.8

94.595.1

97.0

101.0102.0

109.2109.7

92.0

98.0

104.0

110.0

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17

CPI FPI

11

Pricesare8.3%highercomparedtolastyearforthiscategory,withimportcostsand,toalesserextent,increasedfruitpricescontributing.

Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks & Juices

Juicesinparticularwillseepricesgoupintheshorttomediumterm,duetoissueswithsuppliesinbothcitrusandotherfruits,includingthereducedharvestexpectationsforapplesacrossEUgrowers.Sugarsposelessofaproblem,thoughitmaytakesomemonthsforthebenefitsofincreasedharvestsofcaneandbeetsugarstobefeltinthesector. OilpricesfellacrossthemajorityofJune,reducingthefuelcostsforshippingaswellaspackagingcostsforthoseproductsthatcomeinplasticbottles.WhileoilpriceshavebeenerraticsinceMarchofthisyear,pricesarenowbeginningtomovebackupagain,soweshouldnotexpectanypricereductionsheretohaveanyprolongedeffect. Forthoseelementsthatareimported,theweakerpoundonceagaincomesintoplay–takingtheEuroasanexample,June’16’sexchangerateofaround€1.31/£1,whencomparedtothecurrentrateofaround€1.11/£1,showsthatimportcostswillhaveincreasedsignificantly. Wearealsolikelytoseemarketingeffortsbythemajorplayersinthesectorincrease,especiallyafternewsthatinAmericain2016,bottledwaterovertookcarbonatedsoftdrinks.Thisisnotapositionthatthebigsoftdrinkcompanieswilltakelyingdown,especiallywhenthereareotherconcernsforthemtodealwith,suchastheimpendingsugartaxinApril2018.

CurrentinflationFPI | 8.3% 12mthForecast | 6.6%

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

FPISub-CategoryReportJuly2017

98.997.2

95.5

98.3

94.6 94.2

95.597.3

96.895.4 95.7

96.6 96.9

107.7106.4 107.0

105.7

101.2 101.6

96.697.7

102.3

107.5109.2

112.2

116.6

90.0

96.0

102.0

108.0

114.0

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17

CPI FPI

12

InflationforOils&Fatsisat12.8%thismonth,asoliveoilcontinuestobebothinshortsupplyandunderseriousthreatfromdisease,andallimportedoilssufferfromtheweakervalueofGBP.

Oils & Fats

OliveOilprices,alreadypushedupbyshortsupplyandtreediseaseinseveralkeygrowingareas,arenowfacingthethreatoffurthershortages–theincurabletree-killingbacteria(Xylellafastidiosa)thathascutintosupplieselsewherehasnowfounditswaytoSpain,fromwhichmorethanhalftheworld’soliveoiloriginates.Ifmeasuresarenottakentocontainandcontrolthedisease,orelseformulateacure,shortagescouldbecomemuchmoresevereinthemediumtolongterm. PalmOilpriceshave,onaverage,heldinplaceacrossthepastfewmonths,butthetensionaroundtheoilasoneoftheimportantdriversofdeforestationcontinues.HSBChasrecentlytriggeredaninvestigationintopalmoil-relateddeforestationinPapua,involvinganoutsideinvestigatorybody. Coconutoilcontinuestobecomemoreandmorepopular,butashasbeendiscussedinthepast,thisisaproductthenatureofwhichmeansthereisanessentialconflict,asonemustchooseifcoconutswillberaisedfortheiroilorwater,astheycanonlyproduceoneortheother. Allsuchoilsare,ofcourse,imported,andthereforepricesaretiedtothevalueofthepound–asdetailedelsewhere,ongoingBrexitnegotiationscouldseethatvaluefallfurther.

CurrentinflationFPI | 12.8% 12mthForecast | 6.8%

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

FPISub-CategoryReportJuly2017

99.698.2

101.7

99.598.5

97.1

102.1

102.7103.4

106.2

99.3

102.5

104.8

96.397.0 96.9

104.3

102.1 102.1 101.7

104.3

100.2

103.5

105.6

109.7108.6

94.0

100.0

106.0

112.0

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 CPI FPI

13

Unlikeanyothercategorythismonth,pricesforsugarsandchocolatehavedecreasedby5.1%comparedtolastyear,asfallingpricesforsugarandcompetitivecocoapricesmanagetonegatetheeffectofworsenedexchangerates.

Sugar, Jam, Syrups, Chocolate & Confectionary

Brazilcontinuestoenjoybetterandmoreproductivesugarcaneharvests.SugarbeetfarmersintheUKhavenowbeenofferedcontracttermsbyBritishSugar,whichcoupledwiththeremovalofcapsonbeetsugarproductionshouldseepricescomedownfurtherinthemediumterm. Cocoapricesarestilllow,andwhiletheviewfromthefuturesmarketisforagradualmoveupwards,anabundanceofsupplyisstillexpected,whichwillstealawayanyupwardsmomentum.Heavyrainhasaffectedtheexistingcrop,andyetisalsolayingthegroundworkforthenextcrop,betweenOctoberandMarch,tobehealthy,solongasitisbackedupbyadequatesun. Onceagain,exchangeratesfactorin,butinthisinstancethelowervalueofthepound(andthereforethehighercostofimporting)hasbeenoutweighedbythereductionsinpriceseeninthemainingredientsforthiscategory.

FPISub-CategoryReportJuly2017

CurrentinflationFPI | -5.1% 12mthForecast | -2.4%

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

97.6 97.8

99.9

97.0

98.0

96.6 96.6

101.4

98.2 98.6

99.9

101.4

98.7

101.5101.0

102.0101.4 101.0

104.3

99.8

101.8

104.3

106.6

105.0

102.8

96.4

94.0

98.0

102.0

106.0

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17

CPI FPI

14

Vegetablepricesare8.2%highercomparedtolastyear,thoughweshouldexpecttoseethiseaseasmoreUKgrowersstarttheirharvests.Exchangerates,whilenotassignificantforvegetablesasfruit,arestillservingtokeeppriceshigher,andthediminishinginterestintheUKasaworkdestinationforforeignlabourcouldexacerbatethismoreandmoreastimegoeson.

Vegetables (including Potatoes)

IndustrybodyAHDBPotatoeshaswarnedfarmersthatthereislikelytobeasurgeinsupplylaterthisyear,duetoanincreaseintheareaplanted.NorthernIrelandhasalreadyseengoodweatherpushforwardharvestingbytwoweeks,andonceagaingrowingareahasrisen. TheBritishcarrotseasonhasnowstarted-sofaryieldsandqualityappeargoodandpointtoagoodseasonahead.TheUKisfairlyself-sufficientwhenitcomestocarrots,andwhilethedryweatherhasbeenafactor,duetowhentheseasonstartscarrotshavebenefittedfrommorerecentwetterweather,withirrigationavailabletomakeupanyshortfallintherain. Pricesforbrassicasuchasbroccoliandcauliflower,meanwhile,brieflyincreasedinLondonmarketsfollowingthehotspellinearlysummer. Whilethevegetablesectorhasastrongerdomesticelementthanfruit(whichlessenstheeffectofexchangerates)asmentionedinlastmonth’sreporttheBrexitnegotiationsarealsoaffectinghowthecountryisperceivedbyforeignworkers.Whiletheweakerpoundmakeswagesherelessattractive,sotheincreasinglynegativesentimentaroundtheUK’sperceivedattitudestoforeignworkersmakesjobsintheproducesector,whichtraditionallyreliesontemporary,migrantlabour,ahardersell.

FPISub-CategoryReportJuly2017

CurrentinflationFPI | 8.2% 12mthForecast | 6.9%

CGA-Prestige FPI Report - July 2017

94.795.9

94.895.9

94.1 94.495.2

96.3

98.5 98.7 98.897.7

96.8

102.8101.3 101.8

106.0

107.6 107.4

105.5

109.4

106.6

108.4

106.4

110.6111.3

92.0

98.0

104.0

110.0

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 CPI FPI

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