cga prestige foodservice price index (fpi) · of bse presence in other farms. as with previous...
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Price Index (FPI)Monthly Snapshot - November 2018
CGA Prestige Foodservice
Your source for accurate data, analysis and insights into today’s food prices.
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CGA-Prestige FPI Report - November 2018
CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index (FPI) - Monthly Snapshot
Executive Summary The Fish category is up again this month, with the year on year
movement now at 27.8%. The Barents Sea fish quotas are stimulating
the rising inflation within the fish category, something we expect to see
continue. Similarly, we have seen the oils and fats category continue to
rise over previous months and this month in no different, with another
rise this month, albeit 0.6%, the year on year movement is now
at 37.1%.
Milk production has been performing above expectations for
autumn, in part thanks to favourable conditions promoting grass
growth. A period of high prices has driven away some demand
from the market into alternative products, which offer higher profit
margins. Next month looks to be a dramatic change of course, as the
repercussions of a large jump of placings in June finally hits as the
chickens reach maturity and become layers. The effects of this should
continue into 2019, driving egg prices down.
Vegetable shortages are expected to hit soon, with concern over
availability for Christmas, coupled with anticipation for smaller sized
vegetables. In particular, onions, potatoes, and carrots have been
affected. The continuing problems in vegetable production have been a
consistent theme this year, primarily due to weather woes. The British
Growers Association currently expects a 20% yield drop across all
vegetables, while the British Onion Producers Association report
national crop yield to be 40% lower than a normal season.
The downturn in Breads & Cereals is likely due to increased
Russian exports. With concerns over the potential imposition of tariffs,
Russia is clearing its wheat stocks, which has had a knock-on effect
on movements in the Foodservice Price Index. Despite this increased
exporting, global stock-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels for over 20
years. Drought conditions in Europe and Australia and spring snow in
Canada has caused large production issues. It is expected that wheat
prices will rise in the early part of 2019, and Index movements should
reflect this.
Additionally, the UK may soon turn from a net importer to net
exporter of wheat, as closures of two major biofuel plants are likely to
instigate increased exporting.
Movement in the Meat category has been small this month,
declining by 0.1%. Potentially alarming news is the presence of BSE
(mad cow disease) in Scotland. This is the first outbreak for a decade.
The incidence of BSE has been isolated to a single farm, of which many
cattle have been destroyed as a precaution. Currently there is no news
of BSE presence in other farms.
As with previous months, the highest inflation numbers this month are still within the Fish category and the Oils and Fats category. Dairy prices saw a
large jump in October, but are expected to fall soon, in line with an increase in egg production from November. Vegetables have risen this month by 4.2%,
consequent to shortages following the hot summer. Movements in Breads & Cereals have seen a 1.5% decrease, likely the result of increased Russian
exporting. Meat prices have seen minimal movement this month, although an outbreak of BSE has struck a farm in Scotland.
Prestige Purchasing are a leading expert in Value Chain. We provide knowledge, insight, and practical support to hospitality and foodservice businesses. We improve profitability by improving the way in which our clients source and manage what they sell. Our services are tailored to allow us to assist businesses of any scale in the sector. Offering a bespoke consultancy based model we offer services contextualised in the statements below for our clients. Supply OptimisationFor growing businesses that have not yet established a mature supply chain function we provide outsourced services that deliver profit improvement through the application of best in class techniques, using our team of experienced and capable buyers.
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