challenges ahead as a result of climate change: what works and how has the challenge changed?
TRANSCRIPT
Challenges
ahead as a
result of climate
change: what
works and how
has the
challenge
changed?
Mark Howden
ANU Climate Change Institute
Addis Ababa, 12-14 April 2016
ANU CCI / ANU ECI Porter et al. 2014
Impacts of climate change on major crop yield
increasingly understood
• High level of variation and uncertainty
• Limited range of adaptations assessed
• Issues not included (e.g. pests and diseases, climate
variability), timescales problematic
ANU CCI / ANU ECI Porter et al. 2014
Yield variability likely to increase
ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• livestock
• minor and ‘orphan’ crops
• nutrition and quality aspects
• value chains
• social norms and institutional arrangements
• less is known of the stability dimension of food
security than availability and access
• these gaps often align with issues most
important to poor people and to less-developed
regions
• the likelihood of rapidly closing these gaps
seems low
Limitations and gaps
ANU CCI / ANU ECI
From research to an operational system
Lacey et al. 2014, Howden et al. 2013
ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• the consequence of not matching genetics,
management or strategy to the climate is either
underperformance and/or increasing risk
• often single, simple, technical and short-term
adaptations to existing systems with little
attention to the more complex, compound, highly
contextual, strategic, tacit, socially and
institutionally-mediated changes that often
characterise real-world change processes
• Link to mitigation and other dimensions of
change
Adaptation: a ‘no-brainer’ often not well-covered
ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• Subtle pressures to focus on existing systems
only may result in maladaptation
– and in missed opportunities
• Need to consider more systemic and
transformational adaptations
– increasingly so as changes continue
Incremental SystemicTransformational
Howden et al. (2010), Rickards and Howden (2012), Vermuelen et al. (2013), Ripphe et al. (2016)
Comprehensiveness: More than incremental
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• Relative advantage
• Compatibility
• Complexity or simplicity
• Trialability
• Observability
• All challenging if framed as only for future risk
• Therefore need to focus on existing systems and
managing climate variability and trends and
integrating with other issues
• Address path-dependency
Rogers (1962)
Designing better adoption paths
ANU CCI / ANU ECIHowden et al. 2004, Crimp et al. 2016
Ignore 100-year Decadal -
Adaptive
Mean gross margin (Wagga) $119/ha +$8/ha +$17/ha
Mean gross margin (Emerald) $34/ha -$5/ha +$18/ha
50s
60s
70s
80s
00s
Adapting to trends in frost risk is profitable
ANU CCI / ANU ECI
2007 2009 2011 2012 no cultivation, no-
till and stubble retention
guidance systems press wheels for
water harvesting inter-row sowing opportunity
cropping less canola and
pulses hay soil testing for N
and water sowing by the
calendar not on moisture (dry sowing)
containment areas for livestock
low P rates and N only just in time
postpone machinery purchases
no burning of stubbles
shorter season and heat tolerant varieties
variable sowing rate
improve sheep production
canola only on soil moisture
bought and leased more light (sandy) country
concentrate on marketing (futures and foreign exchange rates)
decrease debt off-farm income reduce costs improve harvest
efficiency
simplify all operations
larger paddocks –easier management
improve labour efficiency
improve financial management
requirement for more information and knowledge
Crimp et al. 2012
The climate adaptation journey
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A. Incremental
adaptor
B. Transformational adaptor
Social norms and social learning is important
Dowd et al. (2014) reflecting Rogers (1962), Becker (1970), Granovetter (1973)
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A. Incremental
adaptorB. Transformational
adaptor
Dowd et al. (2014)
Information networks
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FUTURE IMPACTS?
CURRENT
IMPACTS Sudden
demand
for
alternative
product
stream
Less
predictabl
e farming
conditions
Road
closures
and
disruption
s
Increased
energy
costs
Increased
demand
for low-
carbon
products
Increased
fuel costs
Non-viable
farming
regions
Worker
heat
stress
Increased
pressures
for low-
carbon
New
varieties;
variation in
quality
Lim Camacho et al. 2014
• Climate issues integrated with other issues/opportunities
Look at food systems and value chains
ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• potential conflicts of interest (e.g. disciplinary bias,
researchers advocating their own research, preferencing
career metrics over value to decision-makers)
• mechanical adherence to quantitative modelling and focus
on the explicit rather than the tacit
• mis-representation of research results as uncontroversial
inputs into the operational decision-making of end-users
• lack of unbiased and comprehensive communication of
the diverse options and the benefits/risks associated with
them
• lack of awareness of the very different relationship a
researcher and a decision-maker have to the adaptation
decision itself in relation to risk and responsibility
• lack of clarity between research and operational aspects
Ethics in research
Lacey et al. 2015
ANU CCI / ANU ECI
Summary: real, robust, options, talk
Thankyou
Prof Mark Howden
ANU Climate Change Institute
+61 2 6125 7266
Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II